Paul Jones Private Service – Cheltenham Ante Post 10th Mar 10

Wed, Mar 10, 2010

Just the two bets today in the Grand Annual. And William Hill have finally joined the Non Runner No Bet party for all races leaving only Victor Chandler of the big names that are not as far as I can see.

TODAY’S ANTE-POST RECOMMENDATION
Beggars Cap (ew) NON RUNNER NO BET (Grand Annual) – Best prices: 25/1 Stan James, Hills, 20/1 general
Tataniano (win) NON RUNNER NO BET (Grand Annual) – Best price: 10/1 Stan James

CHAMPION HURDLE
I see Solwhit is now less than 50-50 to make the race and Noel Meade is worried about the watering for Go Native. He shouldn’t be (unless it rains overnight) as that means there is no chance of it turning soft so he should treat it as a positive they are watering. The word I had last night was that there may have been a problem last week with Solwhit so, if that was the case, their warnings may have come a little late. Meade has also confirmed Donnas Palm and Muirhead as intended runners and I don’t think the former is out of finishing in the first four but Muirhead ought to stay in his box. Last year’s ninth Won In the Dark, who I advised in a top Irish horse market last season, is also a confirmed runner and enters the race in better form this time and is also more likely to get his ground. Still hard to see him good enough to reach a place though. Binocular gallops today before a decision is made on Friday but I can’t find many supporters for him at all.

NH CHASE
I understand we will have the services of top Irish amateur Derek O’Connor for our Saddler’s Storm interest. I would have preferred Nina Carberry as the price would have shortened but I am not unhappy with the appointment as there are few better amateurs than him in Ireland.

CORAL CUP
The most interesting comment from the Carlisle Preview Evening last night was just how keen Denis O’Regan was on On Raglan Road. Unraced this season, he told us not to worry about that as he has been trained for the race by Howard Johnson and I note he has dropped to mark of 140 as he was rated 145 when last sighted when falling in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree last spring. On his previous run he finished fourth in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle. I would be just slightly worried 2m5f on not soft ground could be a little on the sharp side but that could beoffset by the price of 25/1.

WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER
I see Kieren Fallon has pulled out of his ride on Old McDonald by text preferring to stay in Dubai. I am sure his trainer was delighted! He was also down to fight in a charity boxing night in the Cheltenham area that night which could have also had something to do with it! According to Ferdy Murphy last night, Willie Mullins thinks his contenders may have their work cut out to beat Edward O’Grady’s Shot From The Hip.

GOLD CUP
According to Ferdy Murphy, Knight has booked Graham Lee to ride Calgary Bay in the William Hill Trophy so it would appear that is one more potential runner out of the Gold Cup.

GRAND ANNUAL
My advice today is back BEGGARS CAP each-way at 25/1 with Hills or Stan James non-runner no-bet but there is plenty of 20s about elsewhere also worth taking. I had a suspicion he has been trained for this race all season and when I asked Ferdy Murphy if that was the case he was in the affirmative and it is no surprise as he was far from out of it 12 months ago around five lengths down when unseating Graham Lee three out. He is off a 5lbs higher mark this time around having finished last spring on a high and having the sun on his back is the key to him as he wants decent ground which he should get on the final race of the Festival. You can ignore all three runs this season as he has just been waiting for the spring. Given the trainer’s exceptional record in the handicaps at this meeting, I don’t doubt for a second that Trevor Hemmings’ eight-year-old will be trained to the minute for this bid and he has been threatening to win a good handicap for a couple of seasons. Murphy suggested Watch Your Back in the Plate was his best chance of a handicap winner this season but that is no surprise as he is 8/1 favourite for that race but, At 25/1 or slightly shorter, I think Beggars cap is a sporting each-way punt in what looks a wide-open renewal this season off a probable weight of 10st 7lbs. Lower weighted horses have very much held the call and he should get in okay. The other horse I want to back is Tataniano (NRNB) for the simple reason that if he runs I think he will start 4/1 favourite being the Nicholls/Walsh representative who have won this race twice recently. Novices’ also have a fantastic record in this contest and the word that I have heard is that there is a very good chance that Tataniano will be switched from the Arkle to this race.

ANTE-POST SUGGESTED BETS:
Flat Out (ew) @ 33/1 (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) (win stake refunded if Dunguib wins)
Zaarito (ew) @ 25/1 (Arkle Trophy) NON RUNNER
Sports Line (ew) @ 14/1 (Arkle Trophy)
The Package (ew) @ 10/1 (William Hill Trophy)
Punjabi (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Hurdle)
Medermit @ 11/1 (Champion Hurdle)
No One Tells Me (ew) @ 20/1 (Mares Hurdle)
Weapon’s Amnesty (ew) @ 14/1 (RSA Chase)
Pettifour (ew) @ 50/1 (RSA Chase) NON RUNNER
*Petit Robin (ew) @ 25/1 w/o Master Minded (Champion Chase) NON RUNNER
*Master Minded to win by over five lengths @ 5/2 (Champion Chase)
Sanctuaire (ew) @ 12/1 (Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle)
Day Of A Lifetime (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Bumper)
Voy Por Ustedes (ew) @ 10/1 (Ryanair Chase)
Time For Rupert (ew) @ 25/1 (World Hurdle)
Shillingstone (ew) @ 16/1 (Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup)
Mille Chief (ew) @ 10/1 (Triumph Hurdle 1-2-3-4) NON RUNNER
Secant Star (ew) @ 25/1 (Triumph Hurdle)
Enterprise Park @ 10/1 (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle)
Tell Massini @ 5/1 (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle)

ANTE-POST SUGGESTED NON-RUNNER NO BETS:
Saddlers Storm (ew) @ 14/1 (NH Chase)
Quantitativeeasing (ew) @ 12/1 (Coral Cup)
Silk Affair (ew) @ 16/1 (Pertemps Final)
Song Of Songs (ew) @ 14/1 (Byrne Group Plate)
Trust Fund (ew) @ 10/1 (Foxhunters’)
Quantitativeeasing (ew) @ 12/1 (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Hurdle)
Beggars Cap (ew) @ 25/1 (Johnny Henderson Grand Annual)
Tataniano (win) @ 10/1 (Johnny Henderson Grand Annual)