bettrends.co.uk

Always a fun night, probably the best on the circuit with the maximum capacity of 300 seats all filled which also had an added twist this year. You knew it was going to be one of those nights when a Jethro impersonator introduced the panel. Said panel comprised of M.C. Robert Cooper whose dry wit worked perfectly in tandem with panellists headed by Paddy Brennan (PB) who has a strong book of rides next week, Raceform, GG.Com journalist and multiple Scoop6 winner Andrew Mount (AM) who was dressed for the occasion in countryman gentlemen attire, the inimitable Mark Winstanley (MW) who was also dressed for the occasion in a Green Bay Packers puffa jacket and shellsuit tracksuit bottoms and the belly from the telly Gary Wiltshire (GW) who kept us up to speed with the market moves but didn’t contribute to all races. Timeform’s Kieran Packman had been struck down with flu so was a non-runner so rather than leave a void, innovative chaps that they are, Towcester’s team plucked an audience member from obscurity to appear as his replacement after asking for a show of hands who wanted to take his place. Gavin Gibson was his name or Betting Shop Man (BSM) as we are going to call him, and he wasn’t short on a controversial opinion it is fair to say! He certainly divided the audience whether the bold move to have him on or not but he wasn’t a mug, he knew his stuff. He appeared on the panel so his views are also listed.

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

PB: Dunguib is my banker of the Festival and I am very happy he is not taking me on in the Champion Hurdle where I ride Khyber Kim. He’s a certainty and will love the better ground being by Presenting. I honestly think he could win by 20 lengths.

MW: All the Irish are backing Dunguib, even Father Ted has returned to back him. However the other jocks know he is the one to beat and has an inexperienced rider so they won’t be making it easy for him so he is a lay at 4/6. It was the same story for Cousin Vinny last year. Blackstairmountain is a bit of value against him but the lay is the bet of the race.

AM: I don’t think we should be worried about Dunguib’s jumping as his mistakes were in small fields and on testing ground. I wouldn’t back him at Evens but I wouldn’t want to lay him either.

GW: I really don’t think Dunguib will start odds-on as he is already around Evens on Betfair and that dictates the on-course market. The word is he also finished with sore shins last time. I would lay him and the bookies will want to lay him.

BSM: I can’t have Menorah or Oscar Whisky and Dunguib is too short so a small each-way bet on Get Me Out Of Here is the call.

ARKLE TROPHY

PB: Henrietta Knight wraps her horses up a little but she can certainly train them for the day that matters and I like Somersby most. I don’t think Riverside Theatre is good enough to win as I rode against him last time and although he won well in the end, Barry was shaking at him earlier.

MW: I want to take on Captain Cee Bee whose jumping isn’t good enough and is a nine-year-old. I’ve backed Sports Line and Riverside Theatre. Mullins’ horses worked at Gowran a couple of days ago and I asked which worked best and was told it was Sports Line.

AM: Sports Line probably paid for getting in a battle last time but the one I like is Somersby and I am not worried about his longish absence coming from this yard.

GW: I did fancy Long Run but he goes for the RSA Chase.

BSM: I like Captain Cee Bee. I know good judges think he is underpriced but he gave Binocular 8lbs and a beating in the Supreme. The one horse I can’t have is Somersby who has won just two four-runner races and I don’t like the way she has trained it. Best Mate must have been a wonder horse for her to train him to win three Gold Cups!

CHAMPION HURDLE

PB: I couldn’t have given Khyber Kim a worse ride in the Greatwood as held him right out the back but then they hacked so for him to win was an unbelievable performance. He’s a Ferrari. He proved it was no fluke in the Boylesports when he beat Celestial Halo but I felt he was better in the Greatwood. I was praying they wouldn’t run him in the Totesport Trophy as that could have taken the edge off him. If he runs I don’t think Solwhit has the speed and I rate Go Native my main danger. Good-to-soft will be okay for my fellow.

MW: I’ve been with Go Native all season who kicked on too early when he won the Supreme. He is all speed and there is no substitute for speed in the Champion Hurdle. Celestial Halo could be the only front runner which makes him interesting if he were to slow it down and he could get the run of the race. I would not be surprised if he turns up with something different this year and I better not say anything more. Starluck is a million for me as won’t get up the hill. There was mucus found in Solwhit’s system and the same problem for Pittoni so I would be worried about the Byrnes horses running next week.

AM: No strong view at the top of the market but I do feel that Donnas Palm is overpriced at 50/1.

BSM: I backed Zaynar before it got beat at Kelso as on a line through Starluck he has the beating of Go Native but they have got to make a lot more use of him. I think Khyber Kim needs more cut and also wants a real gallop and not sure he will get that this year if Ruby slows it up in front on Celestial Halo.

TUESDAY SHOULDER RACES (basically only the William Hill Trophy)

PB: I was on a panel with Alan King last night and he came across with very honest opinions and he was very keen on Bensalem in the William Hill Chase. Razor Royale probably runs in the same race but it may come a bit quick for him.

MW: Character Building has had a wind op this year but I am a Bensalem man off that mark. I just don’t like The Package as a horse – never have.

AM: I am also keen on Bensalem and think his jumping will improve for a bigger field and faster pace. Theatrical Moment may be a right-handed track horse.

BSM: I think Bensalem needs more cut. I like Theatrical Moment who has won his last two novice chases and the big field should suit.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE

PB: Rite Of Passage looks the one to beat.

MW: Rite Of Passage is one of the lays of the meeting. They lumped on him in the Bumper last year but like the other Weld horses at the Festibal he was another that got beat. Rumours are he has had a wind problem and the form of his hurdles wins is awful. I’ve had a proper bet on Quel Esprit and I heard his blood wasn’t quite right when he was beaten last time. There will be more money for him.

AM: Rite Of Passage has not taken on anything of note over hurdles. Maybe I am biased as I have a share in Reve De Sivola but I think he is the value at 12/1. His hurdling has to improve but he has been well schooled since he won the Challow where he beat Finians Rainbow who is half his price. If he hurdled better that day he could have won five or ten lengths. He goes well fresh so has been deliberately kept back for this.

BSM: Rite Of Passage didn’t come down the hill in the Bumper last year. I’d be worried about the ground for Reve De Sivola and Peddlers Cross just can not win. Summit Meeting is a bit of value at 16/1 and had his form franked at the weekend.

RSA CHASE

PB: Sam is under pressure on Long Run and he will blamed if it goes wrong. I don’t think Diamond Harry gets up the hill. I won on Weird Al at Wetherby and he is a good horse and has a chance.

MW: I couldn’t understand why Waley-Cohen took the outside route at Warwick on Long Run when the horse was jumping to his right – I thought he went to public school! I can’t have him at the price as he just hurdles too many fences. Burton Port could be the one. Sneaky old Henderson wanted to run him at Aintree as he has two already in the race but Hemmings said no. My contact at the yard says he just does not stop improving and McCoy has been booked so I see him starting nearer 10/1 at the off. I just don’t think the Weird Al formlines are strong enough.

AM: Diamond Harry has yet to run a bad race but his jumping at Newbury was a worry. Also not sure he is quite good enough. I like Weapon’s Amnesty so I hope the mucus problem at the yard has not extended to him. He has done it before at the meeting. Long Run strikes me more as an Aintree horse.

GW: Waley-Cohen gets some stick but he still seems to get them home.

BSM: Long Run is just a five-year-old so only receives 1lb and his rider can’t claim either so the way I see it is that he effectively has overweight. I’m all over Punchestowns. It’s a weapon. Weird Al has been beating rotting corpses this season and Diamond Harry needs it soft.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

PB: I was second to Master Minded at Newbury and if he runs like that again he wins though there is a danger he was so good he may have left his race behind. He’s miles ahead of last year’s Arkle form.

MW: Master Minded is not for me at the price and still being judged on his win in this race two years ago. He only did what he was entitled to at Newbury. I’ve gone with Arkle form that always seems to work out in this race and backed Kalahari King and Forpadydeplasterer who both also look like getting their decent ground. I can’t have Kalahari King out of the frame who is an each-way thieves horse. I also can’t have Twist Magic running well. McCoy has been booked for Forpadydeplasterer and he looks the ideal partner for him.

AM: Kalahari King is the one. Forpady needs a strong pace and good ground which he has not had since last year’s Arkle so I also see a big run from him.

GW: No view except I can’t have Twist Magic.

BSM: Master Minded should be 1-3 if back to his best. Kalahari King e/w is the only possible bet.

WEDNESDAY SHOULDER RACES

PB: Pettifour has a very good chance of running into a place in the NH Chase and he will definitely stay.

MW: O’Grady is keen on Capellanus in the Fred Winter and I’ve been told that Hidden Universe is the best of Weld’s in the Bumper but with Smullen riding he will have two and a half stones of lead weight in the saddle. Drunbaloo has been well backed recently and is the form horse of the Bumper and I think the gamble will continue. I was told that Quantitativeeasing worked very well this morning and he could be very well in off 139 in the Coral Cup.

AM: Barwell Bridge interests me for the Fred Winter if he runs here rather than the Triumph as does Abbeybraney in the NH Chase who was second to Notre Pere on testing ground two years ago. Beshabar is favourite for the Coral Cup but he looks best going right-handed.

RYANAIR CHASE

PB: Poquelin looks the best bet of the meeting at the prices. He slaughtered Razor Royale at Cheltenham and I then won the Racing Post Chase on him. I think Poquelin is a much better horse than Tranquil Sea.

MW: This is a two horse race and I have backed Poquelin big and saved on Tranquil Sea. Cheltenham form means a lot in this race. Voy Por Ustedes has gone and Barbers Shop is a dodgepot. The ambulance boys will have their binoculars firmly glued on Richard Johnson on Planet Of Sound.

AM: My problem with Tranquil Sea is they gave him a recent prep before the last two Festivals and he disappointed both times here and they have given him another recent prep.

GW: If you can get 2/1 the top two combined then that is a great bet.

BSM: A small each-way stab on Planet Of Sound for me even thought I know he can’t jump. Hobbs thinks he is the best he has got.

WORLD HURDLE

PB: Big Buck’s is a cert. It’s a weak race bar Karabak and King said last night he has not been working brilliantly of late. In fact he suggested Katchit at 33/1 each-way as his bet.

MW: Big Buck’s is the most solid of the four odds-on shots. I thought I had a sneaky one in Cousin Vinny but am told he dislikes hurdles now as much as he does fences so it could be the Lincoln next!

AM: I can see Time For Rupert running well but Tidal Bay is the only realistic alternative.

BSM: Big Buck’s is buying money. There has not been a shekel on the machine for Karabak for two weeks and Sentry Duty has no chance as just beat two dodgy horses in a three runner last time.

THURSDAY SHOULDER RACES (basically only the Pertemps Final)

PB: Kayf Aramis always runs a solid race and will run well in the Pertemps Final especially as the bottom weight may be on about 10st 12lbs so the less exposed horses have less chance of getting in so it could be a flag bearer’s race.

MW: Alfie Sherrin could be miles ahead of the handicapper in the Pertemps and Ainama has clearly been plotted up for this.

AM: Elzahann is my Pertemps fancy as she caught the eye in the Cheltenham qualifier and is a spring mare but could do with Fair Along coming out as she has just 9st 7lbs.

GW: If Harry Findlay gets stuck into Alfie Sherrin I can see him starting at 3/1 especially as he will also be a public horse being Nicholls and Walsh.

TRIUMPH HURDLE (time was cracking on so they whizzed through this in 2 minutes)

MW: The worst Triumph in a long time. A man whose speed figures I note said Alaivan put up a great time last time but he is small so will a big field suit? I am worried for Notus De La Tour that he is not running in the Imperial Cup which suggests to me all is not well with him.

AM: Good ground would worry me for Alaivan.

ALBERT BARTLETT HURDLE

PB: Tell Massini reminds me of Denman. His form is on softer ground but he will still take all the beating. Alan King said he wasn’t sure if The Betchworth Kid was man enough for this.

MW: I’ve backed Shinrock Paddy who is crying out for three miles.

AM: I would oppose Restless Harry whose improvement has coincided with getting soft ground. Tell Massini looks a machine on soft ground but close to good ground would really worry me.

BSM: I am all over Enterprise Park who won over 2m and then won again stepping up to 2m6f and the form of that win is working out well. I also think Tell Massini and Restless Harry need soft ground and need to lead so they could not get their ground and cut each other’s throats and set it up for Walsh stalking on Enterprise Park.

GOLD CUP

PB: Imperial Commander’s Haydock run was no fluke and I thought I had won. I have never been going so fast at the end of a three mile chase and agree with Ruby that Kauto Star was a bit short on the day. If we finish second to Kauto Star I will be delighted as he is still a young horse and the trip is not a concern. I would be disappointed if we are not very close to Denman at worst.

MW: I can’t have Denman. Maybe the Hennessy took more out of him than we thought. I’ve backed Tricky Trickster at massive prices who is a young horse and a strong stayer and when these Nicholls horses start improving they can go through the roof. I still think 20/1 each-way now is a great bet as Cooldine won an awful RSA Chase.

AM: Cooldine has had legitimate excuses since he won the RSA and peaks at this time of the year but the one I like is Imperial Commander as the key to him is a good break between his races which he has here.

GW: I feel Denman could easily drift out to 5/1 on the day.

BSM: Imperial Commander each-way is the bet as I can’t have Cooldine as his RSA Chase form is worth nothing.

FRIDAY SHOULDER RACES (again rushed as getting late)

MW: Ashkazar is lobbed in on old form in the Martin Pipe race and he could develop into one of the big gambles of the meeting. Dave’s Dream is interesting in the Grand Annual as is a novice and trained by Henderson which are both good pointers,

An audience member then highlighted the Irish-trained Kilty Storm for the Foxhunters’, a horse he says is currently residing in his back garden! He went on to tell us all about the good horses he has beaten in Irish points and hunter chases since moving from David Pipe, an experience he hated as he needs a small stable environment which he now has.

Stay in the Loop throughout The Festival – Become a Fan on Facebook, Follow Us on Twitter or check out our latest Photos on Flickr