Paul Jones Private Service – Cheltenham Ante Post 11th Mar 10

Thu, Mar 11, 2010

One bet today and it is in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle where I believe there could be a wholesale gamble on my fancy.

TODAY’S ANTE-POST ADVICE:
Ashkazar (win only) NON RUNNER NO BET (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle) – Best prices: 10/1 Every firm on Oddschecker

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
No surprises in the five-day entries except maybe that Loosen My Load didn’t feature and he won’t feature in the Neptune entries either as Henry De Bromhead reports him not ready to go to Cheltenham so he will wait for Fairyhouse instead. At last two firms are betting without Dunguib. The firms are Skybet (win only) and Boylesports (including ew) and the best prices are 5/2 Get Me Out Of Here, 9/2 Blackstairmountain, 11/2 Oscar Whisky, 6 Menorah, 10 Flat Out, 10 Dan Breen. The Mullins pair of Blackstairmountain and Flat Out would interest me most. I note Rite Of Passage has been left in but that is only in case anything happens to Dunguib in between.

ARKLE TROPHY
As expected Long Run did not feature amongst the five-day entries and neither did Tataniano which will be a surprise to many as he was 7/1 favourite back in mid-November but not to me. I don’t think there was any doubt Walsh was going to ride Sports Line after Tataniano was beaten at Newbury but that is now the clincher and there were good reports emanating from a Preview Evening last night that he worked best of all the horse Mullins took to Gowran Park a couple of days ago. I’ve got to admit, I am quietly confident of copping a 14/1 winner here. It looks like my prediction he would start around 8/1 when I advised him as a bet will prove around right.

WILLIAM HILL TROPHY
We are in good shape having taken 10/1 about The Package as only Ladbrokes are going bigger than 11/2 and listening to the sponsor’s rep, they think he will only continue to shorten. As you know I have also saved on Bensalem though not put him up on here as I do feel he is the most likely winner if he puts in an error-free round but I think at least one fence may catch him out so The Package was marginally a better percentage call especially at a bigger price. My worry horse is another novice in Theatrical Moment though was encouraged Andrew Mount, whose opinions I have time for, who thinks he may be a right-handed track horse.

CHAMPION HURDLE
If I hadn’t put two bets up already in the race, both of which I am happy with, I would be advising Celestial Halo because, as I highlighted yesterday he could get the run of the race up front this time as I don’t see another front runner. The rumour is he could also be supporting some kind of headgear for the first time so this is shaping up into another possible Hardy Eustace type scenario who won this race in first time blinkers having got an easy lead, then slowed it up, and then was in the best position to kick on. Nicholls and Walsh will have sussed out they could have an easy lead here and they will have also sussed that if that is the case then they can slow it down as that will not suit a lot of horses who would prefer a fast gallop to quicken off such as Go Native, Khyber Kim and Binocular and a slower mid-race gallop would also be against staying types such as Solwhit (if he runs) and Zaynar. I personally have had a little sniff but, like I say, I am not going to officially put up three horses in one race.

DAVID NICHOLSON MARES HURDLE
Morning Supreme wasn’t entered at the five-day stage so that is one realistic contender out of the way for our each-way bet on No One Tells Me at 20/1 (top price 10s now) and I see the fourth-favourite J’Y Vole is 80/1 on Betfair so she is not turning up here either. Ideal.

NH CHASE
It doesn’t look like the shortest-priced Irish entry Apt Approach is going to run as he is nearly 30/1 on Betfair compared to as low as 8/1 with the bookmakers. Maybe he is being switched to the RSA Chase as the stable’s Uimhiraceathair as been ruled out of the Festival through lameness? Mind you he is a huge price on Betfair for that race so perhaps they have just decided to miss the Festival. Pass.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENTS NOVICES’ HURDLE
Quel Esprit has been the mover ever since Walsh committed himself to the ride and is now a top priced 6/1 but lower on Betfair which tells a story. The word last night was his blood was wrong when beaten last time out and he had previously looked high class until that first defeat over hurdles so I can see why the money has been coming for him for the yard that have won the last two runnings. He and Rite Of Passage could be in a different class to the remainder.

RSA CHASE
The gamble in the last week on Uimhiraceathair came unstuck yesterday when he was ruled out due to lameness. This increases our hopes of collecting on our each-way bet on Weapon’s Amnesty by I am worried by news that the same yard’s Solwhit and Pittoni had been suffering with mucus problems which I have to be concerned about if it spreading over the yard.

CORAL CUP
The vibes I am getting is that this is the most likely target for Quantitativeeasing who I am told worked very well yesterday. I maintain if he runs here, he starts favourite so was happy to take the 12s non-runner no-bet. Mourad has also been a big mover and is now favourite so it appears this is the plan and not the World Hurdle.

WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER
The money still comes for Drumbaloo who is also the form horse of the race and three of the last seven winners were just that and I can pass on two good words for Frawley for the John Kiely yard that are to be respected in bumpers. He was beaten on his first three starts including a two lengths’ third to Elegant Concorde but won well at Leopardstown last time out.

PERTEMPS FINAL
I said I felt that Alfie Sherrin was short enough yesterday but more money has seen him forced into as low as 7/2. If wonder if Harry Findlay has been getting involved? I am happy with our Silk Affair interest and feel the best of the long shots at 20/1 is Maucaillou who always runs the track well.

WORLD HURDLE
Mourad was many a pundit’s idea of the best each-way shot but not any more as he is 130/1 on Betfair so clearly heading to the Coral Cup. Karabak continues to be weak on the exchanges and I have heard he hasn’t really impressing in his recent work so that’s good news for our each-way bet on Time For Rupert.

BYRNE GROUP PLATE
I’m happy with our Song Of Songs project though may well save a little on Watch My Back as Ferdy was keen on him when I sat next to him on the Carlisle preview both publicly and privately. 8/1 is just an okay price but nothing special in such a competitive race though hence why I have not put him up. Tarotino is the other one to interest me as he looks like getting his decent ground which is a must for him and Alan King has trained him for the race. I will be chatting with him on Sunday so may know more then.

MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP HURDLE
When attending preview nights you can get a good feel for which horses are momentum horses and I feel the money will come and come for ASHKAZAR to win the Martin Pipe race for his son, David, and long-time patron David Johnson who has the feel of a horse that has been plotted up for this. He may have ‘gone’ and now be totally useless but you never know with this yard but in the space of 12 months they have got his mark down from 156 when he was not unfancied for the Champion Hurdle to 136 (a drop of a staggering 20lbs) suggests he could be absolutely chucked in if he hasn’t ‘gone’ and they have just been targeting him at this race so his runs this season don’t mean anything. Remember he was laid out for the Imperial Cup-Fred Winter and just failed in the latter after winning the former and it just wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him start at half his current odds and bolt up. Therefore I am going to put him up, not as an each-way bet as he could have ‘gone’ so just a win stake as he could be an easy winner or a total blow-out job and especially as the vibes that my Non Runner No Bet suggestion of a couple of days ago, Quantitativeeasing, is looking more likely to head for the Coral Cup (in which case no harm done) so this would also give us an interest in the race.

GRAND ANNUAL
Just a follow-up to the Tataniano win-only advice yesterday, it was a late decision to add him to the portfolio which I did manually over the phone to a typist at the other end so I didn’t have the time to fully explain my reasoning so here it is now. I did feel 10/1 was a great price and even 8/1 was a very good price as being the last race of the meeting, the getting-out stakes, punters are going to come for Nicholls and Walsh and don’t forget that Nicholls has trained the last five favourites for this race so I saw the bet mainly as a back-to-lay investment in that is we take 8s or upwards and lay off at around 4s or 5s leaving a free bet. It’s up to you if you want to let it run of course but I will be definitely laying off leaving me with a free bet of around 4/1. That was the reason I put him up in addition to Beggars Cap (ew) and not because I think he is the most likely winner although he clearly has a decent chance. Novices have a great record in the race but they were all rated 135 or less whereas Tataniano is rated 144.

ANTE-POST SUGGESTED BETS:
Flat Out (ew) @ 33/1 (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) (win stake refunded if Dunguib wins)
Zaarito (ew) @ 25/1 (Arkle Trophy) NON RUNNER
Sports Line (ew) @ 14/1 (Arkle Trophy)
The Package (ew) @ 10/1 (William Hill Trophy)
Punjabi (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Hurdle)
Medermit @ 11/1 (Champion Hurdle)
No One Tells Me (ew) @ 20/1 (Mares Hurdle)
Weapon’s Amnesty (ew) @ 14/1 (RSA Chase)
Pettifour (ew) @ 50/1 (RSA Chase) NON RUNNER
*Petit Robin (ew) @ 25/1 w/o Master Minded (Champion Chase) NON RUNNER
*Master Minded to win by over five lengths @ 5/2 (Champion Chase)
Sanctuaire (ew) @ 12/1 (Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle)
Day Of A Lifetime (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Bumper)
Voy Por Ustedes (ew) @ 10/1 (Ryanair Chase)
Time For Rupert (ew) @ 25/1 (World Hurdle)
Shillingstone (ew) @ 16/1 (Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup)
Mille Chief (ew) @ 10/1 (Triumph Hurdle 1-2-3-4) NON RUNNER
Secant Star (ew) @ 25/1 (Triumph Hurdle)
Enterprise Park @ 10/1 (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle)
Tell Massini @ 5/1 (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle)

ANTE-POST SUGGESTED NON-RUNNER NO BETS:
Saddlers Storm (ew) @ 14/1 (NH Chase)
Quantitativeeasing (ew) @ 12/1 (Coral Cup)
Silk Affair (ew) @ 16/1 (Pertemps Final)
Song Of Songs (ew) @ 14/1 (Byrne Group Plate)
Trust Fund (ew) @ 10/1 (Foxhunters’)
Quantitativeeasing (ew) @ 12/1 (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle)
Ashkazar @ 10/1 (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle)
Beggars Cap (ew) @ 25/1 (Johnny Henderson Grand Annual)
Tataniano @ 10/1 (Johnny Henderson Grand Annual)