Cheltenham Ante Post Service – 12th Mar 10
Two bets today in the World Hurdle without Big Buck’s market and in the Champion Bumper. This is the penultimate copy with the last being on Monday at 1.00 p.m.
TODAY’S ANTE-POST ADVICE:
Frawley (each-way) (Champion Bumper) – Best prices: 25/1 Bet365, Skybet, Corals, Sporting Odds; 20/1 Hills, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Blue Sq, Betfred, Totesport
Katchit (each-way) Without Big Buck’s NON RUNNER NO BET (World Hurdle) – Best prices: 14/1 William Hill; 12/1 Paddy Power, Blue Sq, Bet365
ARKLE TROPHY
Paul Nicholls had been talking the chances of Woolcombe Folly a little but he was the horse that put Sam Thomas in hospital yesterday when schooling which is hardly an ideal preparation for the Arkle where jumping is so crucial so I am not surprised has now drifted slightly after the nibbles for him earlier in the week.
WILLIAM HILL TROPHY
Maybe it was by design or maybe he thinks it has little chance but Ferdy Murphy didn’t mention New Alco when talking through his handicappers at the Carlisle preview on Tuesdat and he is a 25/1 shot here but it’s interesting he has jocked up a 10lbs claimer Paul Gallagher who only had his first ever winner two days ago. He was only beaten two lengths when second in this race two years ago off 145 when we were on An Accordion and had one run since and with the claim he is effectively running off 132 here. It would be some story though if this was the jockey’s second ever winner.
CROSS COUNTRY CHASE
The word from the Irish preview circuit is that J P McManus’ racing manager has only has two bets this Festival they being Get Me Out Of Here in the Supreme and L’Ami here which is interesting if true as his boss also owns the favourite Garde Champetre.
NH CHASE
I reported back a couple of days ago that we would have Derek O’Connor for our bet on Saddlers Storm but that was duff info from Denis O’Regan as he rides Any Currency as I reported last week after talking with Martin Keighley so we will have to wait to find out who Tony Martin will book.
CORAL CUP
There was a big yesterday for our non-runner no-bet 12/1 contender Quantitativeeasing into as 7/1 pretty much across the board which tells me he is running here off an attractive looking mark of 139 and it doesn’t look like I will be a million miles away when I suggested the bet that he could start favourite around 6/1 if this is the plan. This gives us options.
WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER
At the Midlands Racing Club preview last night John Hales told the audience that Ruby Walsh had confirmed he would ride Al Ferof for him and Paul Nicholls over the Willie Mullins runners. Interesting as Ferdy Murphy mentioned on Tuesday he heard Walsh thinks he could be a potential Gold Cup horse of the future. I’m not sure what to read into this as Patrick Mullins usually rides Willie Mullins’ number one so I would say Walsh prefers Al Ferof to whatever Mullins is not going to ride in the race. I have backed FRAWLEY (ew) at 25/1 non-runner no-bet and suggest you also have a little dig. Nothing major as it is the bumper after all but I feel this is a horse that will be backed hailing from the John Kiely yard that undeniably knows a good bumper horse when they see one (Sweeps Hill won the Grade 1 bumper at Punchestown for them last season on the disqualification of Dunguib and he brought over the 1-2 in the big mares’ bumper at last season’s Grand National meeting) and he meets the major stats being an Irish-trained, Irish-bred five-year-old that won last time out and has plenty of bumper experience. He also had a bumper run last season when second to Quantitativeeasing at the Punchestown Festival. He has progressed with each of his three bumper starts this season winning comfortably at Leopardstown last time out having previously got to within two lengths of Elegant Concorde who is 6/1 favourite but Frawley is four times the price which is plain wrong. I must admit having received two positive mentions in the last week for him has also had an influence on my decision to throw a few shekels at him at 25/1 and it is interesting Kiely wants to run him as his Araucaria was perceived as being the yard’s main fancy until she was beaten by Shot From The Hip last time but he wants to take on that O’Grady horse who is third-favourite again with Frawley. It’s a bit of a punt but at 25s I don’t mind that.
PERTEMPS FINAL
A sea of blue on Oddschecker for J P McManus’ tells us that this is where Smoking Aces is going to run and not the Coral Cup. I thought he may go Coral Cup so he is another I have time for in this race now he runs here alongside our NR No Bet interest on Silk Affair and I also have time for Maucaillou, Prince Erik, Fredo and Alfie Sherrin who is too short for me to back but could be a class above a handicapper. It will be interesting who McCoy rides for J P out of Smoking Aces and Ainama though if Fair Along stays in it will have to be Ainama who I have down as a flat track horse with little gumption in a finish as he would otherwise being putting overweight on Smoking Aces.
WORLD HURDLE
We are on Time For Rupert e/w in the outright market and I have highlighted his claims also betting without the favourite but there is a bet in that market today and that is KATCHIT (each-way) without Big Buck’s at 14/1 with Hills but the 12s everywhere also appeals. If I like Time For Rupert which I do, I also have to seriously respect Katchit’s chance of fighting it out for second as very little separated them when second and third in the Cleeve Hurdle and I have been hearing nothing but encouraging reports about Katchit’s home work since which is significant as he is usually a moderate worker. He proved he stayed in the Cleeve Hurdle and he just loves Cheltenham hence an easy Triumph Hurdle win, a Champion Hurdle win and a far from disgraced sixth in last season’s Champion Hurdle over what is now too sharp a trip for him. He also looks like getting his decent ground which his trainer feels he now needs to show his best and even if he is beating you just know he will battle his heart out for you and there has to be every chance he can finish in the first four given Karabak is not pleasing at home, Sentry Duty is a dodgy stayer, Cousin Vinny has reportedly losing interest full stop and Mourad has been switched to the Coral Cup. Take the 14s about Katchit (ew) without Big Buck’s at 14s if you can but 12s is still a good price.
TRIUMPH HURDLE
I have been hearing that Super Kenny is the best 4yo in Henderson and should win easily at Stratford on Monday. If so, I just wonder if they may chance him four days later. Unlikely but if my info is right then that would be a negative for Soldatino’s chance for me if they think Super Kenny is their best.
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
There has been money for Fionnegas here which I don’t like as it looks like he is likely to run here as I would give him a chance and I was confident we had the winner amongst our two bets.
GOLD CUP
With Sam Thomas injured, Nicholls is now on the lookout for a jockey for Tricky Trickster. I hope they give it to Christian Williams who deserves some loyalty from the yard.
ANTE-POST SUGGESTED BETS:
Flat Out (ew) @ 33/1 (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) (win stake refunded if Dunguib wins)
Zaarito (ew) @ 25/1 (Arkle Trophy) NON RUNNER
Sports Line (ew) @ 14/1 (Arkle Trophy)
The Package (ew) @ 10/1 (William Hill Trophy)
Punjabi (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Hurdle)
Medermit @ 11/1 (Champion Hurdle)
No One Tells Me (ew) @ 20/1 (Mares Hurdle)
Weapon’s Amnesty (ew) @ 14/1 (RSA Chase)
Pettifour (ew) @ 50/1 (RSA Chase) NON RUNNER
*Petit Robin (ew) @ 25/1 w/o Master Minded (Champion Chase) NON RUNNER
*Master Minded to win by over five lengths @ 5/2 (Champion Chase)
Sanctuaire (ew) @ 12/1 (Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle)
Day Of A Lifetime (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Bumper)
Voy Por Ustedes (ew) @ 10/1 (Ryanair Chase)
Time For Rupert (ew) @ 25/1 (World Hurdle)
Shillingstone (ew) @ 16/1 (Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup)
Mille Chief (ew) @ 10/1 (Triumph Hurdle 1-2-3-4) NON RUNNER
Secant Star (ew) @ 25/1 (Triumph Hurdle)
Enterprise Park @ 10/1 (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle)
Tell Massini @ 5/1 (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle)
ANTE-POST SUGGESTED NON-RUNNER NO BETS:
Saddlers Storm (ew) @ 14/1 (NH Chase)
Quantitativeeasing (ew) @ 12/1 (Coral Cup)
Frawley (ew) @ 25/1 (Champion Bumper)
Silk Affair (ew) @ 16/1 (Pertemps Final)
Katchit (ew) w/o Big Buck’s @ 14/1 (World Hurdle)
Song Of Songs (ew) @ 14/1 (Byrne Group Plate)
Trust Fund (ew) @ 10/1 (Foxhunters’)
Quantitativeeasing (ew) @ 12/1 (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle)
Ashkazar @ 10/1 (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle)
Beggars Cap (ew) @ 25/1 (Johnny Henderson Grand Annual)
Tataniano @ 10/1 (Johnny Henderson Grand Annual)
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Fri, Mar 12, 2010
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