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Tuesday March 16^th

Welcome to the first of four days for this service where I take the trends from the Guide to hopefully cut the wheat from the chaff using years of patterns to bring the fields down to a more manageable level. Any horses appearing in brackets in the short list are not perfect trends horses but I still feel they have plenty going for them. The horse at the top of the list is the most favoured by the trends in my opinion, followed by the second-most favoured trends horse etc.

I just want to also highlight that for the first time I am running a Live service from 10.00 a.m. from the course for all four days where I will be texting through many one-liners which you can follow live on the Betrrends website. Just click on ‘Live’ and ‘Cheltenham’ and then you will see my messages as and when I send them. This is new and free and hopefully can help you with your betting throughout the day as I will try and give you info from the course that you might not otherwise be able to pick up such as racecourse whispers, paddock appearances, etc. etc. I am guessing I will post between 50-100 messages throughout the day. Hard to tell.

SPINAL RESEARCH SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
First up as is always the case with the race, we can’t possibly back a horse beaten last time out as this is best 2m novices’ hurdle run all season. Only one of the last 13 winners was beaten last time out and that was Arcalis who was taking on Champion Hurdle horses in the Christmas Hurdle. That’s how hard a task this is for MENORAH and GENERAL MILLER of the top eight in the betting plus the no-hopers CHAIN OF COMMAND, COOTEHILL, FAR AWAY SO CLOSE FIULIN, HOLLINS, MISTER WALL STREET, SPRING JIM, TAKESTAN, VINO GRIEGO and DREAM ESTEEM. That immediately just cuts it down to six potential bets on that very strong statistic.

Other negative trends are thin on the ground except for the fact that a recent run is important as just one of the last ten winners had run in the previous six and a half weeks but only Cootehill had been off the track for longer than 46 days so it’s a redundant stat this year.

Therefore, we move on quickly to the positive trends and see how the six horses we have left fare. The strongest of those trends is how well the Irish have fared winning seven of the last nine runnings. In fact, since 1977 they have won this race six times more than any other race at the Festival so that’s a big tick for DUNGUIB, BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN and FLAT OUT. Takestan and Far Away So Close make up a quintet of Irish challengers. Therefore I prefer them to the British challenge of GET ME OUT OF HERE, OSCAR WHISKY and DAN BREEN.

The stat I really like however concerns just how well horses with one or two hurdles have fared. To have won 8 of the last 18 runnings is some going for horses with that profile considering just 3-4 run each year on average so that’s a big plus for the Willie Mullins-trained pair of BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN and FLAT OUT who have won their sole hurdling start. Fiulin, Spring Jim and Dream Esteem also have run no more than twice over hurdles but fail the massive beaten-last-time-out stat but I have more time for OSCAR WHISKY who has also just got two hurdling runs on the board.

The best guides have been the Grade 1 Royal Bond Hurdle and Grade 1 Deloitte Hurdle which were both won by DUNGUIB. That said, they aren’t massive pointers with a couple of winners each in recent years but are the only races where one than one ‘Supreme’ winner has run in more recent times.

SHORT LIST
BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN
FLAT OUT
DUNGUIB

CONCLUSION
The two big stats are being Irish-trained and having won last time out so the short list was pretty easy to come to. I can’t split BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN and FLAT OUT on trends so only have the former on top of the short list as he is Ruby Walsh’s mount so the number one of the Willie Mullins-trained pair but I definitely wouldn’t put you off Paul Townend’s mount at double the price as he was as impressive if not more so than his stablemate on his only hurdling start. Mullins has also won this race twice before and should have won it three times if Adamant Approach had not fallen at the final flight. Both horses fit the profile to a tee so I rate them better value than DUNGUIB who also meets the main criterion but I do prefer a hurdler with less experience, as bizarre as that sounds, as horses with two or less hurdling starts have a tremendous strike rate given their lack of representation. Nicky Henderson has trained two winners so his OSCAR WHISKY is respected as he is also lightly-raced over hurdles and a last-time-out winner so those three factors mean he would be the best of the home defence on stats even though GET ME OUT OF HERE has the stronger form claim. The latter won the Totesport Trophy last time out but this race rarely goes the way of a horse that has contested handicaps. Dunguib will be hard to beat and is solid on stats but I just feel there is better value supporting Blackstairmountain and Flat Out each-way against him.

IRISH INDEPENDENT ARKLE TROPHY
Firstly I need to apologise for an incorrect stat in the Guide. I mentioned every Arkle winner since 1966 had had a prep run since the New Year but Or Royal didn’t in 1997. That is still a mighty strong negative stat whichever way you look at it and would go against the likes of three massive players in SOMERSBY, SIZING EUROPE and RIVERSIDE THEATRE plus the lively outsider KANGAROO COURT.

The big stat surrounds hurdle ratings as 9 of the last 10 winners were rated at least 142+ over timber so hurdle-race class counts for plenty and especially so this season in what many feel is the best Arkle run for years. Runners that fail the hurdles-race class stat are QUISCOVER FONTAINE, FOSTERS CROSS and I’M DELILAH with the other nine all passing. Just three horses qualified last year which tells us what a hot renewal this is. Another interesting stat is that 5 of the last 9 winners were the top-rated hurdler in the field. This season that honour falls narrowly to OSANA over SIZING EUROPE but the latter was the clear top-rated hurdler at his best over hurdles before injury intervened so I would be more inclined to go with him on that stat than Osana.

OSANA fails a big stat in that he failed to finish first or second last time out. Just two of the last 23 winners failed to manage that and one of those fell (Moscow Flyer) so I just can’t have him at all on that basis alongside the humungous MAD MAX who also finished third last time out. Osana is a French-bred though and they have won 7 of the last 15 runnings alongside Quiscover Fontaine.

I am also going to kick out CAPTAIN CEE BEE as this has not been a favourite’s race with just two of the last 17 winning plus the last nine-year-old to win was 21 years ago. Equally as worrying given odds of around 3/1 are his mistakes at the end of races and the fact he was the first horse off the bridle when he won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and he won’t get away with that in an Arkle. The second, third and fourth favourites have the ones to concentrate on winning an impressive 13 of the last 17 runnings.

No one trial has featured more than two winners in the last decade but four have featured two winners however the winner of the November Novices’ Chase (FOSTERS CROSS fell) and Kingmaker Chase are not here. SOMERSBY won the Henry VIII Chase which was another of those four races with the Irish Arkle being the other in which SPORTS LINE was second. In fact, the last seven Irish-trained winners ran in that race which Captain Cee Bee, Sizing Europe and Osana all bypassed.

SHORT LIST
SPORTS LINE
WOOLCOMBE FOLLY
(SOMERSBY)

CONCLUSION
The longish absences of SOMERSBY, SIZING EUROPE and RIVERSIDE THEATRE are far from ideal and I don’t like the fact CAPTAIN CEE BEE is a nine-year-old and favourites have a poor record. I also have reservations about Riverside Theatre not on a flat track and there is still a maggot of doubt in my mind what Sizing Europe will find when it is put up to him. SOMERSBY on the other hand, despite a long absence has won one of the key trials and looks made for the race so he is going to scrape into the short list as he also fits the likely market position. SPORTS LINE could be the one though as horses not far behind the favourite in the market have a great record, he ran in the right Irish trial, has the requisite hurdle rating and doesn’t come here off the back of a disappointing run. WOOLCOMBE FOLLY will be attempting to do a Well Chief in winning after one chase start but he jumped very well and I can find no negative patterns with him so he also makes the shortlist and could be the each-way value. He just mugged I’M DELILAH who isn’t a trends horse but I’ve seen a heck of a lot worse 100/1 shots (in a couple of places) in the Arkle than her down  the years and am curious why a shrewd handicap trainer like Ferdy Murphy seems happy to ruin her mark of 129 by running here as I very much had her down as one for the Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree off a featherweight. Perhaps he knows more about her than the bare form so I make her semi-interesting each-way at a huge price. She might be interesting in a place only market if 20/1ish to small stakes especially getting a 7lbs mares’ allowance which Kruguyrova had when she was second two years ago.

WILLIAM HILL TROPHY
Official ratings stats say you’ve had it if rated 150+ like in the last 27 years so they are the first ones of my list so THE TOTHER ONE, JOE LIVELY, COMPLY OR DIE, NICHE MARKET and CASEY JONES are not for me. I do prefer the ratings stats to the weight stats but it is worth noting than the last ten winners all carried no more than 11st so I am happy to oppose TATENEN (who wouldn’t?) and RAZOR ROYALE as this is also likely to come too soon after his hard race when he won the Racing Post Chase. Therefore the 24 starting list is down to 17.

OLLIE MAGERN, STAN and KNOWHERE are all aged 11+ as are Joe Lively and Comply Or Die who I have ruled out on official ratings grounds and as such horses are 0-29 to even place since 1997 you won’t find me backing them either.

Unfortunately that’s where we run out of serious negative patterns so our short list is to be made up of those that best fit the positive trends of those remaining and I would argue the most important pattern of late has been the successes of novices who, after 27 straight losing years, have won three of the last six runnings so we have to seriously respect BENSALEM, THE PACKAGE, THEATRICAL MOMENT and OGEE. The first three mentioned are also the first three in the betting and we can not forget just what a good race this has been for punters as eight of the last nine winners could be found in the first four in the betting and Ogee is knocking hard of the door of also making it into that slot. Therefore, as they are the two most eye-catching positive trends, I have little hesitation in making the four novices who are all fancied as the four for my short list. The Package also won the 3m2f handicap chase at the December Meeting here which has been the only race in the last decade to feature more than one William Hill Trophy winner.

Looking at other positive trends, seven of the last 12 had been placed at worst at the Festival before which is a plus for NENUPHAR COLLONGES and CHARACTER BUILDING who have won at the meeting before as well as KICKS FOR FREE who was just nosed out of a Coral Cup victory, NICHE MARKET who has been fourth in a NH Chase and NEW ALCO who was second in this race two years ago.

With five of the last seven winning last time out, that means another plus for The Package, Theatrical Moment and Ogee plus also for Razor Royale and CHIEF DAN GEORGE.

SHORT LIST
THE PACKAGE
THEATRICAL MOMENT
BENSALEM
OGEE

CONCLUSION
The quartet on the shortlist may all be well fancied according to the market but that’s fine by me as this has very much been a fancied horse’s race in the last decade. All four are novices and they have won three of the last six runnings and three of which won last time out (not Bensalem) like five of the last seven winners and three of them (not Ogee) are trained by stables that have won this race in the last six years. THE PACKAGE just gets the vote as he also won the best guide for this race back in December but I am slightly concerned about the form of some of David Pipe’s runners. Jonjo O’Neill won this race with a novice last year and runs another in THEATRICAL MOMENT. The niggle with him is whether he may be better right-handed but he has been kept back for this since the Skybet Chase was abandoned. Alan King has also won this with a novice in Fork Lightning off 137 and he reckons BENSALEM, who runs off 143, is two classes ahead of him. The worry with him is his jumping but connections say he has schooled well in a noseband since. OGEE is the lightly-weighted novice and is not to be dismissed lightly hailing from a small yard and he was a Grade 1 winner of a three-mile novice hurdle at Aintree last spring. My worry with him is his size as he came from the Flat and this is a big track for a small horse. In short, I couldn’t put you off any but The Package just edges it on trends though I suspect a clean round of jumping by Bensalem could see him run out a cosy winner as his trainer is convinced he is far better than a 143-rated horse.

SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE
Rule number one for the Champion Hurdle, even if it cost us last year from a trends perspective, only concentrate on last-time-out winners. Just four of the last 26 winners were beaten last time out which is more than enough to leave CELESTIAL HALO (though first time blinkers are intriguing), JUMBO RIO, RAISE YOUR HEART and ZAYNAR out of trends-based conclusions. I am not sure what to do with STARLUCK as he was beaten on his last hurdling start very narrowly by Go Native but warmed up with a win on the Flat over a mile. As I don’t think he will get up the hill allied to the fact he was beaten last time over hurdles, five-year-olds have won once since 1985 and he is unlikely to start in the first six in the betting which has been a big stat, on balance, I would rather leave him out.

I am also going to side against GO NATIVE as no reigning ‘Supreme’ winner has won since 1971 and just one of the last 19 Christmas Hurdle winners to run here has won. Besides, 7/2 is short enough when nine horses are rated between 161-168 and he won those two races by narrow margins so I don’t feel he offers great value. The last 15 winners had also ran in the same calendar year which he hasn’t which is also against Khyber Kim.

The two positive stats I will concentrate on are that previous course winners or horses to have finished placed at the Festival before have a strong record as do the first six in the betting who have been responsible for 7 of the last 19 winners. The former stat would be against SOLWHIT even though Leopardstown Grade 1 form has been important. He may like the course but we don’t know for sure unlike all his main threats so I will have to let him go. My guess is that the top five in the market will be Go Native, Solwhit, Binocular, Punjabi and Khyber Kim but I don’t know between Celestial Halo, Zaynar and Medermit for the final berth.

In terms of the best guides, I have been told on countless times by panels up and down the land that last season’s Champion Hurdle was rubbish but traditionally it has been the best guide so I still have plenty of time for PUNJABI, CELESTIAL HALO and BINOCULAR in that respect. I happen to think it might have been an alright Champion Hurdle. Celestial Halo then ran second in the Boylesports International splitting KHYBER KIM and MEDERMIT and beaten horses in that race have a decent recent record. Khyber Kim would only be the second winner of that race to win here since Comedy Of Errors since in 1985 so is passed over

SHORT LIST
PUNJABI
MEDERMIT
BINOCULAR

CONCLUSION
As I wrote in the Guide, this race has been freaking me out all winter and I’m still no clearer really as it is so open but I am happy to take on GO NATIVE as he has been winning the wrong races and also SOLWHIT as he has no course form. I do think PUNJABI has to run very well again and is an each-way play. Last season’s race has been the best guide and dual winners are commonplace and I also like the fact that beaten horses in the Boylesports International have fared much better than the winner in the Champion Hurdle so readily prefer him to KHYBER KIM who I feel may also be a mudlark. I genuinely think BINOCULAR would have won last season’s race rather than finish a close-up third if the race was run a week later as he had a poor preparation. For much of this season I have felt that hard run 12 months ago had taken the edge off him but he passes all the trends and the vibes I have been getting from the Henderson yard is that he is their number one and very much back at the top of his game. MEDERMIT was also beaten in the Boylesports but then improved to win the Haydock trial in style and has a similar chance to Go Native on last season’s ‘Supreme’ running. The momentum behind him has run out of steam over the last week but he is dangerous to ignore. My worry horse is CELESTIAL HALO as he could get the run of the race up front this time as I don’t see another front runner. He is also suppoting headgear for the first time so this is shaping up into another possible Hardy Eustace type scenario who won this race in first time blinkers having got an easy lead, then slowed it up, and then was in the best position to kick on. Nicholls and Walsh will have sussed out they could have an easy lead here and they will have also sussed that if that is the case then they can slow it down as that will not suit a lot of horses who would prefer a fast gallop to quicken off. Then again, they have mentioned they will drop him in this time so who knows?

GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY HANDICAP CHASE
Sixteen go to post but we only need consider the Irish given they have won all five runnings and just two of the last 16 horses to even pay a place dividend were British so MONKERHOSTIN, CORNISH SETT, LACDOUDAL, DOUBLE DIZZY and OCEANOS DES OBEAUX are not for me.

Monkerhostin is a popular horse so will attract support on his cross country debut as will former Bet365 Gold Cup winner Lacdoudal for the same yard but the last 19 races over these fences were won by a horse with cross country experience which they don’t have so they look certain to lack the necessary know-how.

Onto the positive stats and of course we have to start with Enda Bolger who has trained no less than 14 of the 30 cross country races ever staged at Cheltenham including four of the five runnings of this race and he had the runner-up on the other occasion. He runs last season’s 1-2-3 GARDE CHAMPETRE, L’AMI and DROMBEAG again as well as well as former winner of this race HEADS ONTHE GROUND and FRENEYS WELL who is probably more at home over Punchestowns’ banks. Nina Carberry is back on Garde Champetre who she is unbeaten on in eight starts in cross country races with J T McNamara on his their chief threat L’Ami.

The P.P.Hogan Chase form has been the most enlightening so far but this season Bolger elected not to send his big guns so ANOTHER JEWEL won a poor renewal from SILVER BIRCH. The better guide of the two Cheltenham cross country races earlier in the season has been the December handicap which this season saw GARDE CHAMPETRE quicken up on the run-in to beat SIZING AUSTRALIA with Freneys Well and Double Dizzy not that far behind. I would prefer Cheltenham cross country form to Punchestown cross country form.

SHORT LIST
GARDE CHAMPETRE
L’AMI
ANOTHER JEWEL

CONCLUSION
ANOTHER JEWEL makes the short list as he won the influential P.P. Hogan Chase but it wasn’t the best of runnings by a long way and he has plenty to find but he is only eight so you never know and he looks the best of those outside of the front three in the betting. So whose turn is it this time between GARDE CHAMPETRE and L’AMI? Garde Champetre is chasing a hat-trick of wins in the race off a mark of 161 this time having won this off 129 and 150 for the last two years so this is no piece of cake but he has the ability to quicken on the run-in and that is what sets him apart plus Nina is 8-8 on him in these races so he would be my pick even at the worse weights than last year. L’Ami has had a wind operation since then and given a low-key campaign, both which could work in his favour but, once a twicer, always a twicer for me, so I will be trust Garde Champetre. 

DAVID NICHOLSON MARES HURDLE
Just two years to work off so this will be kept brief.

So far five-year-olds have won both runnings and only four line up they being NO ONE TELLS ME, STRAVINSKY DANCE, PEPITE DU SOLEIL and PRINCESS RAINBOW.

The Irish look far stronger from the home defence and supplied the winner and third last season so I would go with them again and their raiding party is headed by last year’s runaway winner QUEVEGA, VOLER LA VEDETTE (runs here in preference to having a chance in the Champion Hurdle), NO ONE TELLS ME (second to Voler La Vedette over Christmas but expected to enjoy this stiffer track and hill), ZARINAVA (dodgy stayer), AURA ABOUT YOU (third last season but this is her seasonal debut) and HERE COMES SALLY (outclassed).

Just two years to work off but as yet the mares with a maximum penalty have yet to win and they are Quevega, Stravinsky Dance, Voler La Vedette and Zarinava. I wouldn’t read much into it though as they only have to give 2lbs to the next batch.

SHORT LIST
NO ONE TELLS ME
VOLER LA VEDETTE
QUEVEGA

CONCLUSION
Boring I know to suggest the front three in the betting but I make NO ONE TELLS ME a fair each-way bet here. A five-year-old like the first two winners, she could reverse with VOLER LA VEDETTE on this stiffer track if they go a right good lick as Colm Murphy’s mare looks better over two miles and Jessica Harrington feels her five-year-old will enjoy the hill. If they don’t go a pace however, that will fall right into Voler La Vedette’s hands. QUEVEGA will win this if she reproduces her effort in last year’s race and also on her close up third to Solwhit and Punjabi at Punchestown but recent rumours of her preparation haven’t been great. The dark one is J P McManus’ SWAY who I gather is highly strung so will be held up out the back and she could pick off rivals for a place but it’s asking a lot of a four-year-old to beat her elders in a conditions race.

Best of luck
Paul Jones

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