Hunter Chase Betting Service

Mon, Mar 15, 2010

Taunton – Monday, March 15th

ENITSAG – Regular in sub-3m Hunter Chases and has won his share down the years, the last three all coming over 2m4f at Ludlow. Went off the boil after the latest success and has a poor record fresh, so easily opposed over this trip and under this rider.

THE VENETIAN – Sole Rules win came off 100 over 3m at Chepstow (good/soft) in late 2008; poor form since and generally well held under this rider this season including when pulled up at Larkhill last time (every chance for 2m4f but faded rapidly). Conditions should suit but a bit to prove at the moment; tries headgear.

NOVI SAD – Modest winning chaser a long time ago; consistent Pointer nowadays and has won his last two completed starts, including an ordinary Mens Open at Didmarton on good/firm a week ago. Onepaced but game and clear form chance in a weak contest.

ROCKWITHACAVEMAN – Multiple winning Pointer who also finished a fine second to Le Duc in a Newton Abbot Hunter Chase; slightly disappointing but not overly disgraced when second to Zabenz on his comeback and has a leading chance on form, but quickening ground would be a concern. Hopefully the rider hasn’t overdosed on the bubbly after becoming the winning-most lady Point-to-Point rider of all time over the weekend.

YES MY LORD – Would have been the best of these under Rules (and, narrowly, on Point-to-Point ratings) but totally ungenuine these days and has only completed once in five starts since winning a mediocre three runner affair on his ’09 seasonal debut. Best when the mud is flying and has an excellent chance on old form, but very doubtful as to whether he will want to put it in.

Conclusion – A tight contest with doubts about all of them. Novi Sad is slow but will appreciate conditions more than Rockwithacaveman.

Stratford – Monday, March 15^th

MY OLD PIANO – Unbeaten in completed Points (disqualified once for carrying the wrong weight) and made a successful transition to Hunter Chasing at Leicester a fortnight ago, easily conceding weight to a decent field (Oranger 20L third, Hemington 48L last). The ground was heavy that day but he has plenty of form on quicker surfaces and he should be very hard to beat.

PENNY DOC – Multiple winner in Ireland and finished runner-up twice in Hunter Chases (goes well on testing ground), but only showed ordinary form when a distant second on his GB debut. Ran well for a long way in a fair renewal of the ‘Walrus’ at Haydock but was exhausted at the finish, but left that behind when grinding out a win in testing ground at Folkestone. Has more on his plate today and his ability to handle good ground is an unknown.

APOLLO BLAZE – Keen going front runner who often struggles to last home, but amazingly managed to win over 3m4f at Trebudannon last season. Has shown little since to be able to prove that wasn’t a fluke, and has been well beaten in both of his Hunter Chase outings to date (a non-staying 28L fifth behind Sericina last time). Better ground may suit but still has a bit to prove.

BEN RYAN – Long-standing Maiden under Rules and his recent efforts (37L sixth in a Whitfield Restricted after leading, 31L fourth of five finishers at Huntingdon) leaves him with a huge amount to find against the likes of My Old Piano.

HEMINGTON – Can be a tricky ride at times but a decent novice last season; as well as winning three Points finished placed in two Hunter Chases including when a close third over 3m4f in a classy John Corbet Cup. Finished a long last behind My Old Piano on his comeback but clearly blew up that day and probably wouldn’t have been ideally suited by the testing ground in any case. Expect a much improved performance under these conditions, but whether he can turn the tables is another thing.

JUST TALKING – Just the merest of ability under Rules but a revelation in Points last season, winning four out of four in minor company. Given a suspiciously easy ride on his comeback (still in contention when Mansell called it a day three from home) but back to winning ways with an authoritative performance at Whitwick next time out. Jumps and stays well, and clearly well up to this grade, but would be a stronger fancy if there was a bit of cut in the ground.

LAGOSTA – Modest and regressive performer under Rules, but has found Pointing much more to his liking, winning his final two in ’09 including an impressive Ladies Open success on goodish at Tabley. Held a narrow lead when falling two out at North Carlton on his comeback and subsequently well beaten in a Ladies at Whitwick (well held today by Just Talking on equivalent race times); needs to improve to figure.

MYSTIC KING – Rated a pathetic 54 under Rules; won a 2m4f Maiden in ’06 but nothing otherwise, and after a miserable effort in a Chaddesley Restricted needs a miracle to be able to get involved here. Pony sized, so putting him over regulation fences may not be the best of ideas.

NEXTHINGWAS – useful form when winning an Irish Point but it has been a complete tale of woe ever since and his two Pointing efforts last season were disastrous. Unfancied but in touch when falling just after halfway at Leicester, but seriously in need of a confidence boost now.

ORANGER – Generally consistent but thoroughly exposed and no reason to suggest he can overturn a recent 20L defeat by My Old Piano. Could feasibly plod into a place but difficult to envisage anything more.

RYEMAN – Better than his record suggests he is, but usually ruins his chances by becoming far too excited both before and during his races; probably needed the run when fourth in a Black Forest Restricted on his comeback and has been placed in minor Hunter Chase company, but still to prove that he stays the trip in decent company.

CRACKING CLICHE – Weak finisher who often gives the impression she has a wind defect; only has an elders’ Maiden win to her name and her form this season gives her no hope in this company.

ISLE OF SKYE – Genuine enough but basically moderate and struggles to stay 3m. Non-finisher so far this season and having never jumped a regulation fence in public it is hard to visualise anything different today, despite the positive jockey booking.

TRUE FRIDAY – A bit of a legend in the Midlands area, especially at Garthorpe where she has won five times, but has never been risked under Rules and, at eleven years of age, is leaving it very late to make her debut in this sphere. Would have a decent chance on her best form but hasn’t yet been at her peak this season and occasionally the victim of blunders.

Conclusion – It’s very hard to oppose My Old Piano here; he was very impressive at Leicester and although the competition here is slightly stronger there is every reason to suggest he will be even better on this sounder surface. Just Talking and Hemington are the most obvious forecast choices.