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Welcome to the Cheltenham Festival short lists service. Like last year we enter the festival in good form as subscribers to both the Horses to Follow service and the Eyecatchers service would hopefully have taken the 8/1 available about Red Harbour who won at Sandown in a very exciting finish. 6/1 was also generally available about Meanus Dandy who won the only other race previewed over the weekend. So let’s hope the good form continues for the biggest week in Jump racing!!

The idea of this service is to produce a race by race analysis for the entire festival and a short list (maximum three horses) for each race.

TUESDAY MARCH 16TH

1.30PM – SPINAL RESEARCH SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

1. DUNGUIB
2. GENERAL MILLER

This year there appear to be several ‘bankers’ at the festival and we have one in the very first race as DUNGUIB is odds on to get favourite backers off to the perfect start. Much was made of his jumping last time out and it is very true that he was far from fluent, but if you go back and watch his debut over hurdles, it is obvious that this horse can jump and he should outclass the opposition. He was awesome in the bumper last year, storming clear to win by ten lengths and has won all four starts over hurdles with ease. He oozes class and will be hard to beat. I am not one to bet odds on at the festival, so I will look at the betting without the favourite market and the Tote for a straight forecast and the one I like for that is GENERAL MILLER. The winner of both his bumpers, he really impressed me when winning at Cheltenham on his hurdling debut, travelling strongly before outclassing the useful Ghizao and although beaten last time out – (that was over two and a half miles), a fast run two miles is just up his street. He is currently 25/1 and appeals as an each-way selection at that price, but I will look at the forecast market on the day.

2.05PM – IRISH INDEPENDENT ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY

1. SOMERSBY
2. SIZING EUROPE
3. RIVERSIDE THEATRE

This looks a particularly hot renewal of this race and whoever wins will certainly need to be top class. The key thing to remember when selecting a runner here is that year after year this goes to one of the leading fancies that has never been out of the first two over fences. There are a few qualifiers, but the one that jumps out at me is SOMERSBY who is two from two over fences and really impressed with his jumping at Sandown when winning in a time two seconds quicker than that achieved by Twist Magic later in the day. He was a very good novice hurdler, finishing third in the Supreme Novices Hurdle and in the parade ring prior to racing he stood out as the one that looked most like a chaser. I expect him to run a huge race. The main danger appears to be SIZING EUROPE who is unbeaten in four starts over fences and has really impressed with his jumping. Like many former winners he is proven over further than this two miles trip and although it looked as if Captain Cee Bee would have won at Leopardstown if he had not fell, the fact is that Sizing Europe did win the race, despite not being at his best and I expect him to run very well. The final one for the short list is RIVERSIDE THEATRE who again has impressed with his jumping. He is unbeaten in two starts and has looked very fluent and has the potential for further improvement.

2.40PM – WILLIAM HILL TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE

1. KICKS FOR FREE
2. OGEE
3. BENSALEM

This usually goes to one of the favourites that comes into the race off a good run and is set to carry less than eleven stone.

BENSALEM is the obvious place to start as he has run well in all four chase starts to date and appears to be well handicapped off a mark of 143 and his trainer Alan King is confident. Last time out he ran very well behind leading RSA Chase fancy Diamond Harry at Newbury and over hurdles he appeared well suited to Cheltenham. He is an obvious contender. OGEE has taken well to fences, winning three from four and his only defeat came against the exciting Long Run at Kempton. He stays well and has a touch of class and I feel that the handicapper has overlooked him slightly as a mark of 137 looks very lenient, he could easily be a 150 horse. KICKS FOR FREE has an excellent record at the Cheltenham Festival, finishing third in the bumper, before going down by just a nose in the Coral Cup. He is best going left handed and when fresh and with the ground also in his favour, he looks overpriced at 20/1 and can reward each-way punters.

3.20PM – SMURFITT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE

1. GO NATIVE
2. CELESTIAL HALO
3. PUNJABI

The key thing to remember with the Champion Hurdle is that it usually goes to a horse that has previously won at Cheltenham, finished in the first two at the Cheltenham Festival and won last time out. There are a few qualifiers, but the one that has really impressed this year is GO NATIVE. Last year he was a good winner of a very good renewal of the Supreme Novices Hurdle and his form this year is as good as any runner in the race. He travels and jumps well and looks assured to be travelling well turning for home, where it is key that Paul Carberry hold on to him for as long as possible, in fact he should not hit the front until the final 100 yards. Last year and at Kempton he hit the front too soon and just held on, but under a more patient ride he should run a huge race providing the ground is no softer than Good to Soft. Five year olds have an awful record in this, so the fact that CELESTIAL HALO went so close to winning last year speaks volumes. First time out this season he put up arguably the best performance any hurdler has this season in defying top weight to easily win at Wincanton. He than ran too soon at Cheltenham but still ran well and was rated the best horse in the race, when finishing second to Khyber Kim. Last time out, the track and ground were against him and he traditionally runs badly in January/February so you can expect an improved run here and he looks a good bet to be placed. PUNJABI did us a big favour last year when selected at 28/1 and he looks solid to be placed again. He looked good last time out and goes into this with a vital win to his name. He is solid at the course and has a very good record when the ground is in his favour and it will be on Tuesday, so he is a must for the short list.

4.00PM – GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY HANDICAP CHASE

1. GARDE CHAMPETRE
2. L’AMI

Enda Bolger is simply awesome in this race having trained the winner of four of the five runnings of it, so why look elsewhere?

GARDE CHAMPETRE has won the last two renewals and looked as good as ever when winning over the course in November and December. Weight does not seem to be a handicap to him as his course knowledge seems to help him overcome anything the handicapper throws at him. L’AMI finished second last year and on better terms should run him close again and is my idea for the forecast.

4.40PM – DAVID NICHOLSON MARES’ HURDLE

1. VOLER LA VEDETTE

The market is dominated by the Irish here and slight preference is for VOLER LA VEDETTE as she has proved a revelation this season, winning all four starts, including easily defeating Go Native at Down Royal. She looks a very exciting prospect and is reported to be back in good form after her slight setback at Christmas.

WEDNESDAY MARCH 17TH

1.30PM – NATIONAL HUNT STEEPLE CHASE

1. MOBAASHER
2. SYNCHRONISED

A very tricky race, as most are unexposed at the trip, but the one that I like is MOBAASHER, trained by Venetia Willams. A decent staying hurdler, he has taken well to fences, winning two from four and appears a good stayer. He has a touch of class which should see him travel well in this and should be able to quicken when the lesser horses are unable to. Jonjo O’Neill has an excellent record in this so SYNCHRONISED should be added to the short-list. He stayed very well to win at Chepstow and appeals as the sort who could run very well.

2.05PM – NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE

1. PEDDLERS CROSS
2. FIONNEGAS

18 of the last 20 winners were aged five or six and the vast majority of them had never finished out of the first two over hurdles.

This is very open and should be a great race. PEDDLERS CROSS was awesome last time out and should run very well. Unbeaten in four starts, he could prove to be a class act. Although unproven over this trip over hurdles, his victory in an Irish point-to-point was achieved over two and a half miles on decent ground. FIONNEGAS has taken well to hurdles and could run a big race at a decent price. Last time out he ran well in the Deloitte Novices Hurdle over an inadequate two miles, but was unfortunate to come up against Dunguib. There is no such opponent in this and odds of 20/1 look top each-way value.

2.40PM – RSA CHASE

1. PUNCHESTOWNS
2. WEAPON’S AMNESTY
3. LONG RUN

There are several key stats to be aware of here. The last ten winners all finished in the last two last time out, had run at least three times over fences and eight were seven year olds.

On stats Weird Al had an outstanding chance and would have been my pick, but unfortunately he has met with a setback and will miss the race. PUNCHESTOWNS was a class above these over hurdles and has done little wrong over fences. He recovered well from a bad mistake last time out and although he lacks the experience associated with a typical winner; his class could see him through. WEAPON’S AMNESTY won at the festival last year and has taken well to fences. He stays well and is expected to show improved form over fences for tackling better ground. His run behind Pandorama at Leopardstown was good and he has the necessary experience to be a serious player. LONG RUN looks a machine and will obviously be a very popular selection. It has been reported that he could be the next Kauto Star and the way he won at Kempton was awesome. He looks a class act and providing his jumping holds up, he has to go close.

3.20PM – SEASONS HOLIDAYS QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

1. MASTER MINDED

MASTER MINDED looked back to his best last time out and can not be opposed. Two years ago he put up the best performance I have ever seen by a two mile chaser and if anywhere back to that level of form, he will win. Although beaten first time out, the problem was identified and fixed and even if he can only repeat the level of form achieved when winning last year, he should still win.

4.00PM – CORAL CUP

1. QUANTITATIVEEASING
2. SIR HARRY ORMESHER

A very difficult race to assess, but I will side with QUANTATIVEEASING as he is a horse I like and believe is well handicapped. He was very impressive on his first two starts over hurdles and although beaten on his last start, he only lost out by a neck against a very promising horse. He certainly has the potential for more improvement than most, having had just three starts over hurdles and a mark of 139 looks fine to me. The main danger may prove to be SIR HARRY ORMESHER who comes into the race on the back of a good win at Doncaster and has potential to improve.

4.40PM – FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES’ HURDLE

1. NOTUS DE LA TOUR
2. HUNTERVIEW

David Pipe has done well in this race over the years, winning it in 2007 with Gaspara and he appears to have a strong hand this year. Like all the previous winners HUNTERVIEW did not win until his third start over hurdles and as a result comes here on a decent handicap mark. He was useful on the flat, (rated 93), and he could improve for encountering decent ground over hurdles. He appeals as a live contender here. NOTUS DE LA TOUR also comes from the Pipe stable and created a favourable impression on his British debut when defeating Ranjobaie who boosted the form on Saturday. His rating of 134 looks fair as he could be a lot better than that.

5.15PM – WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER

1. TAVERN TIMES
2. SHOT FROM THE HIP

Irish trained horses absolutely dominate this race, so much so that I don’t even consider a British trained runner. The key stat this year is that 15 of the 17 winners in the history of this race had won in a field of 14 or more runners and nearly all the leading fancies have failed to do so this year. The one horse who qualifies is TAVERN TIMES who won a good ground bumper impressively at Fairyhouse. He looks an exciting prospect and should go very well. SHOT FROM THE HIP impressed many last time out and enters this the winner of both starts, he lacks big field experience, but is potentially an exciting horse and could be fast improving.

THURSDAY MARCH 18TH

1.30PM – JEWSON NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE

1. RIVALISTE
2. WORKING TITLE
3. THE HOLLINWELL

This looks one of the most competitive races of the entire week, but to help us break it down, history tells us that it is won by a horse set to carry less than eleven stone that has never finished out of the first two when completing over fences. RIVALISTE meets the criteria and has been kept fresh to protect his handicap mark by last year’s winning trainer Paul Nicholls. They believe he is well handicapped and capable of success. WORKING TITLE also meets the trends and could be ahead of the handicapper. He impressed first time over fences and the race could be run to suit. THE HOLLINWELL was put up to subscribers of my eyecatchers service at 16/1 for this and is now half those odds. He appeals as the sort that Ferdy Murphy excels with at the festival and although he carries a couple of pounds more than the ideal weight, he should run very well.

2.05PM – PERTEMPS FINAL

1. ALFIE SHERRIN

I am a big fan of ALFIE SHERRIN. As well as including him in the list of horses to follow at the start of the season, I have already tipped him to eyecatchers subscribers for this at 6/1 and have seen nothing to change my mind. The ground is key to him and good ground will be perfect. His is potentially a very good horse and could be one of the top horses in Paul Nicholls yard in two years time. He was very impressive last time and the form has been franked. A rating of 144 looks very good, especially when you consider if the handicapper could weight the race again, he would run off 149. It is a competitive race, but I expect a very big run.

2.40PM – RYANAIR STEEPLE CHASE

1. VOY POR USTEDES
2. POQUELIN
3. ALBERTAS RUN

The ground is key here and based on the forecast, it should be good and that will favour POQUELIN. In five runs at Cheltenham over fences, he has won three and looks better than ever this season. A good run in the Paddy Power (on unsuitable ground) was followed by a good win in the Boylesports Gold Cup, again on unsuitable ground and now the going is in his favour, he should run very well. VOY POR USTEDES has a fantastic record at Cheltenham and the only times he has ever been beaten at the festival, he finished second to two very good horses, both rated in excess of 170. The ground and trip are ideal for him and although he disappointed on his last two starts, the fact remains that on his last four starts at this trip, he has run to a rating in excess of 160 every time. A repeat of that will see him placed and a likely winner and 16/1 is simply too big a price. ALBERTAS RUN also has a great record over fences at Cheltenham, winning two from three and ran a promising race at Ascot recently. The race should be run to suit and I expect him to be very competitive at a decent price.

3.20PM – LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE

1. BIG BUCK’S

BIG BUCK’S has simply dominated the staying hurdlers over the last year and is a must for this list. He is class and although I am sure he will be off the bridle at some stage, his stamina and class is such that I expect him to come out an impressive winner, running up the hill strongly to become yet another dual winner of the race.

4.00PM – BYRNE GROUP PLATE

1. GREAT ENDEAVOUR
2. DIABLO

Weight matters in this race as only two of the last ten winners carried in excess of eleven stone. It is also a race in which outsiders do well, but a top five finish last time out is also important.

GREAT ENDEAVOUR really impressed me first time out this season when giving weight and nearly beating Lie Forrit over hurdles at Cheltenham. That was some run when you consider what the winner has gone on to achieve. He has since turned his attentions to chasing and although successful on his debut, has not progressed. That could be down to the ground as both starts have been on very soft ground and he should tackle good ground here. He is potentially very well handicapped and is worth chancing at a big price. DIABLO has yet to win over fences, but he ran a blinder last time out to finish third to Burton Port at Ascot and this step back in trip should suit. He is also capable of running very well at a big price.

4.40PM – FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP

1. FLIGHT LEADER
2. GALANT NUIT

A very tricky race and not one that I am confident about!!

From a trends point of view those at the head of the handicap have done very well recently as 7 of the last 8 winner have carried 10-10 or more. FLIGHT LEADER has always promised to be a very good chaser but so far has yet to win, despite three second placings from four starts. At his peak he was rated 160 over hurdles and is in this off 130 and with Colin Tizzard having his string in good form, I am prepared to take a chance on him. Ferdy Murphy always seems to do well at the Festival and GALANT NUIT appears to have been laid out for this. The winner of a competitive race at Cheltenham early in the season, he has not been seen since and he could be very interesting.

FRIDAY MARCH 19TH

1.30PM – JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE

1. ALAIVAN
2. SOLDATINO
3. ADVISOR

Since the introduction of the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle this consistently goes to the classy horses at the head of the market. In fact since 2005 the winners had (combined) run in 15 hurdle races leading up to glory and had finished outside the first two just once!

ALAIVAN has impressed in three starts and looks a class act. He was very useful on the flat and fits the profile of a typical winner. My only concern is that his best form has been on very testing ground and it will be very different here, but he sets a good standard. SOLDATINO has run twice over hurdles and has won both. On his British debut he really impressed with how he quickened after the last and he is expected to have come on a lot for the run. ADVISOR is also unbeaten in two starts and has form on decent ground on the flat. Ruby Walsh has selected him ahead of a well fancied Irish runner and he should not be far away.

2.05PM – VINCENT O’BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE

1. ERADICATE
2. BELLVANO
3. TITO BUSTILLO

A typical winner of this would have run well last time out, carried no more than 11-1 and have had a recent run.

One horse I really like is BELLVANO who is two from three over hurdles. He has a touch of class and is potentially well handicapped. He has plenty of pace and should be right there at the last. Wherever he finishes TITO BUSTILLO should not be far away as based on his last run (when finishing third to Bellvano) he is weighted to reverse placings, but only just. He has also taken well to hurdles and could be ahead of the handicapper. ERADICATE needs good ground and he should have it here. He stayed on well to win at Musselburgh recently and this race should be run to suit. The handicapper has put him up eight pounds for that victory, but I feel that under-estimates him and he should go very well.

2.40PM – ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE

1. TELL MASSINI
2. NAJAF

This looks a very good race and a horse that I have a lot of time for is TELL MASSINI who is unbeaten over hurdles, including two victories at Cheltenham. His win at the November meeting is excellent form as the runner-up (Reve de Sivola) went on to win the Challow Hurdle, defeating both Restless Harry and Finian’s Rainbow. Paul Nicholls went very close to winning this last year and he has a serious contender this time round in NAJAF. Successful on his British debut over an inadequate trip, it is really his previous run that catches my eye as he was only just beaten by Jumbo Rio in France (level weights) and that one is a live outsider for the Champion Hurdle! He is expected to improve for this trip and is an attractive each-way price at 20/1.

3.20PM TOTESPORT CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

1. KAUTO STAR

The great dual is here and it will be a fascinating race. KAUTO STAR was simply awesome in the King George and not that bad when winning this last year either! With the ground riding good, he should be very hard to beat and can give trainer Paul Nicholls another big race win. Denman did not seem himself last time out when unseating Tony McCoy, but I expect him to bounce back and chase Kauto home for the second year running. It is interesting that a month a go the next in the betting was ten times his price, but now is just double, so the forecast may not be a bad bet now.

4PM – CHRISTIE’S FOXHUNTER STEEPLE CHASE

1. DRYBROOK BEDOUIN
2. GENTLE GEORGE
3. BABY RUN

This is a very open race this year as there does not appear to be a young improver. An outsider with a chance is DRYBROOK BEDOUIN who has a course victory to his name. He has been running well in Opens this season, including when just beaten by Roulez Cool at Larkhill (favourite for this race) and looks fair value at 33/1. GENTLE GEORGE is a giant of a horse and appears to be improving with experience. I could see him getting into a rhythm at Cheltenham and jumping many of his rivals into the ground and at 20/1 there are worse each-bets around. Sam Twiston-Davies has really impressed me this season and he rides BABY RUN. Last time out he made all the running to easily win at Warwick and should have a major say in the outcome here.

4.40PM – MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP HURDLE

1. QASPAL

QASPAL was a good winner of the Imperial Cup on Saturday and enters the race on a four-timer. With just a five pound penalty to overcome, he has to be a serious contender in a very tricky race.

5.15PM – JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL HANDICAP CHASE

1. SALUT FLO
2. TATANIANO

Last year’s winner Oh Crick proved yet again that light weighted horses have the upper hand – the last 10 winner all carried 10-11 or less.

SALUT FLO made all the running to score easily on his debut for David Pipe and has since been put up a stone by the handicapper. He has just a five pound penalty in this though, but it is likely that he will also be five pounds out of the handicap, but whatever he is still well in and a progressive French bred novice (like several former winners). The main danger could be TATANIANO who is another French bred novice and although he is set to carry a little more than the usual winner, he is a classy horse that bounces off the likely good ground. He also has a good record at Cheltenham, winning his last two starts and could give the Nicholls-Walsh team the perfect ending to another successful festival.

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