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Three more bets today, one in the William Hill Chase hopefully covering our position on The Package, another in the Byrne Group Plate at 20/1 and a replacement bet for Saddlers Storm (NR No Bet) in the NH Chase who annoyingly bolted up at 4/1 yesterday so is likely to miss the race. Luckily, I held on for long enough to suggest NR No bet when suggesting him so no harm done. Annoying though as he won so easily he would have had to have had a great chance at a working man’s price for us. A full list of my final thoughts on our bets and other races feature other the notices.

TODAY’S ANTE-POST ADVICE:
Bensalem (win) NR No Bet (William Hill Trophy) – Best prices: 5/1 General
Mobaasher (ew) NR No Bet (NH Chase) – Best prices: 16/1 Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Skybet, Stan James, William Hill; 14/1 others
Tarotino (ew) NR No Bet (Byrne Group Plate) – Best prices: 20/1 William Hill; 16/1 Bet365, Skybet, Totesport, Betfred, Blue Sq, Stan James, Ladbokes

This is the final copy in this series which I hope you have enjoyed. Having written this copy for every Monday since the New Year and every day last week in addition to finalising the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide I certainly don’t feel I am under-prepared that’s for sure! Let’s hope we now get the much needed luck. Two years ago we enjoyed an extraordinary set of advised winners in this Ante-Post Service that will never be repeated and, last year, we also had a very profitable Festival so I know expectations are high but hopefully not too high as we can’t have those results every year so I would happy to make a nice profit this Festival and I feel we are in a decent rather than fantastic position with the advised portfolio.

It looks like Voy Por Ustedes will be the only horse that will start at a longer price than advised (or maybe not if you read my Ryanair comments later). We also have four non-runners this season that weren’t part of the NR No bet advices which isn’t bad given the nature of ante-post betting and we got incredibly lucky last year on that front with just about every bet turning up on the day and in the right race.

If you are a subscriber to my Weekend NH Service that means you will also be able to access the Overnight Online Service for all four days from 6.00 p.m. (Monday-Thursday). I have to stress that is a trends-only service where I run through the stats in the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide and give short lists purely using those trends for trends-based punters so if I have been negative about a horse on this service and you see it on a short list on that service it is because my hands are tied for all those that want to make their selections based on the stats.

Just to mention one last time that for the first time I am running a Live service from 10.00 a.m. from the course for all four days where I will be texting through many one-liners which you can follow live on the Betrrends website. Just click on ‘Live’ and ‘Cheltenham’ and then you will see my messages as and when I send them. This is new and free and hopefully can help you with your betting throughout the day as I will try and give you info from the course that you might not otherwise be able to pick up such as racecourse whispers, paddock appearances, etc. etc. I am guessing I will post between 50-100 messages throughout the day. Hard to tell.

Finally, a reminder that the Aintree & Punchestown Festival Betting Guide is published after Cheltenham nowadays so I can include analysis from the Festival. For the first time this year it will include an extensive A-Z of horses which ran at Cheltenham that caught my eye in terms of paddock appearance or how they ran with a view to how they might run at Aintree and Punchestown.

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
Advised Ante-Post Bet: Flat Out (ew) @ 33/1 (win stakes refunded if Dunguib wins)
A sporting bet as Flat Out could be anything and I felt it was worth chancing him at 33/1 on the proviso that the win stake refunded if Dunguib wins offered by Paddy Power. I do like the fact that Willie Mullins is keen to run him as he is very strong in the novice hurdle department this season so he has a good idea of his ability and I also like the fact he has only had one hurdling start as horses with two runs or less over hurdles have a superb strike rate in this race given how few face the starter. He looks like being around half the odds advised at and we now have the services of Paul Townend rather than Emmit Mullins which is a positive. His stablemate Blackstairmountain has exactly the same profile so I respect his chance as well especially as Ruby Walsh takes the ride and I couldn’t put you off getting involved in him either (especially in a market without the favourite) but greed took over so I went for the Mullins horse at twice the price. Of the Brits I can only consider Get Me Out Of Here as Menorah and Oscar Whisky just don’t do it for me.

ARKLE TROPHY
Advised Ante-Post Bets: Sports Line (ew) @ 14/1; Zaarito (ew) @ 25/1
Disappointingly Zaarito doesn’t make the race as his trainer had a rethink a few weeks back after saying he would be aimed at the race. A real shame as he would have been a big player for us at a big price as he would have won a Grade 1 but for falling at the final fence since I advised the bet and then he hacked up last time. Frustrating. However, I am sneaky confident we can land this with Sports Line if Ruby Walsh can just rein back his enthusiasm and he will love a fast-run race. We have the value at 14s as he looks like starting at half that price giving us options. I think Captain Cee Bee has been under-priced for a long time and should be similarly priced to Sizing Europe who I think is more of a danger and becoming the forgotten horse of the race (friendless on the preview evening circuit) but I believe Somersby is the one we have to beat as feel Riverside Theatre is a flat track horse that may also just lack the class (looks like a horse to finish around fourth for me) and I would be very surprised if the rest are good enough bar Shakervilz who is classy but has been nibbled into the right price of the last week. I just feel Osana will not be as good a chaser as he is a hurdler but I am surprised a shrewd handicap trainer like Ferdy Murphy seems happy to ruin I’m Delilah’s mark of 129 by running here as I very much had her down as one for the Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree off a featherweight. Perhaps he knows more about her than the bare form so I make her semi-interesting each-way at as big 66/1 in a couple of places. She might be interesting in a place only market if 16/1 to small stakes.

WILLIAM HILL TROPHY
Advised Ante-Post Bet: The Package (ew) @ 10/1
I like the two at the front at the market here to give novices a fourth win in the race in the last seven years so suggest we add Bensalem to the portfolio win-only at the best price. How times have changed in this race when novices previously hadn’t won it for over a quarter of a century. He may be favourite but I do know Alan King feels he is extremely well handicapped off 143 and has extensively schooled him in a noseband and is expecting to see the real Bensalem turn up now. I think he will backed into around 7/2. We can have this bet as The Package which I advised at 10/1 a couple of weeks back looks like starting close to half those odds so we are in a good position. My view here and now is that if Bensalem wins then he wins with a degree of comfort. The one worry I do have about The Package is that since we had that bet the Pipe yard have gone incredibly quiet which does concern me hence my eagerness to step in and support the other horse I fancy for the race.

CHAMPION HURDLE
Advised Ante-Post Bets: Punjabi (ew) @ 12/1; Medermit (win) @ 11/1
I do feel we have a very good bet in Punjabi (ew) at 12/1 as I can’t see him not running a blinder given his consistency, the way he travels and his appreciation of the course. I thought he looked incredibly well in himself in his final prep and I just think back to how well he travelled in last year’s race and the Boylesports International and am sure he will travel as well this time if the pace is generous though that is not certain now Nicholls has said at a preview night he may settle Celestial Halo in with first-time blinkers. If he doesn’t make it I don’t know who will so we could have a slower race than anticipated. If Nicholls’ words were a bluff about not front running as Henderson was sitting four feet away from him and he does front run, I could see him getting the run of the race given he only has 11 rivals so he is dangerous if that is the case. If he does front run I could see a Hardy Eustace type scenario where he leads, then slows up and stacks them up which would be against Go Native, Starluck, Binocular and Khyber Kim that want to quicken off a fast pace, and then kick on again. At that same preview I have to say that Henderson’s enthusiasm for Binocular was infectious. The impression I very much formed is that he is back to his very best and, deep down, I do feel the trainer thinks Binocular is his best chance in the race. Zaynar would be the horse most affected by lack of a strong gallop as surely he needs a longer trip on the likely ground so I can’t have him at all even with the cheekpieces slapped back on for the first time this season. Go Native has an obvious chance but is short enough for me given he doesn’t have that much in hand over Starluck, who I can’t see fully getting up the hill at this level and Medermit. We are also on the latter win only at 11/1 and, as with Punjabi, we have beaten the price with him but I have to confess I am cooling on his chance and can see him drifting in the market. I have felt for most of the season that Solwhit was the most likely winner but not any more given his mucus problems over the last week or so. Then again, it has been mentioned to me his canny trainer may have been trying to pull a fast one to get a better price for his connections as he drifted to near 10/1 at that point. To win a Champion Hurdle off a less than perfect preparation is just too hard for me if that was the case though. Khyber Kim has shown so much improvement you would have thought he spent the summer with Mohamed Bin Shafya but I just feel he wants it genuinely soft which he is unlikely to get though Henderson feels they may over-water for day one, in which case, that would bring him into the mix so I will be very interested in the race time for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle to better evaluate his chance.

CROSS COUNTRY HANDICAP CHASE
Advised Ante-Post Bets: None
No advised ante-post bet but I messed up there as hung around too much waiting for more bookmakers to price the race up so missed the 8s each-way about Sizing Australia who is 6/1 now and looks nearer the mark. If you want a bet I would still advise him each-way at 5/1 or better but he is not going up as an official bet. The vibes I am getting is that L’Ami is the one for the McManus team this year and not Garde Champetre but the latter is the horse with a turn of foot and that is what wins these races so I still feel he is the most likely winner. I really can’t fancy anything else so will box these three up in a Trifecta as the leading fancies generally dominate these races.

DAVID NICHOLSON MARES HURDLE
Advised Ante-Post Bet: No One Tells Me (ew) @ 20/1
The market over the last 2-3 days has been speaking far more in favour of Voler La Vedette over Quevega after rumours that the latter worked like a drain recently and she has lost her position as ante-post favourite. So much so, her stablemate, J’y Vole, was backed in 6/1 but she has not even been declared. If Quevega is at her best I think she will outstay her main rival but if she is not and Voler La Vedette finds this trip and hill a little too much, I don’t think we are totally out of picking up the pieces and taking the main prize with our each-way bet on No One Tells Me who is half the odds at which I advised her. Another I would give a mention to is last year’s third Aura About You who has not run for a long time but I gather has been pleasing Paul Nolan at home so she could be the best of the 25/1+ shots. I have also been hearing good things about Sway recently but she is only a four-year-old.

NH CHASE
Advised Ante-Post Bet: Mobaasher (ew) @ 16/1 NR No Bet; Saddlers Storm (ew) @ 14/1 NR No Bet
My advised bet of Saddlers Storm hacked up yesterday so is most unlikely to run. I would have to say given the ease of his win he would have been a huge player so that is annoying and maybe Tony Martin has the Irish National in mind for him. At least it was a Non-Runner No Bet advice so all stakes will be refunded unless they do run him three days later. To replace him I suggest an each-way interest at 16/1 on Venetia Williams’ Mobaasher. The key to him is decent ground which he looks he will get but also look at his Festival form – third in the Triumph, fourth in the Pertemps Final and seventh in a World Hurdle and being rated 157 over hurdles he could just be far too classy for these in what looks a moderate year. He has won two of his four novice chases and the twice he was beaten when it was soft which he hates and has won a Class 2 hurdle at Cheltenham to boot. 16/1 strikes me as a very decent price about the class hurdler in the field who has taken well to fences and was good enough. Now I know he is an old monkey that will need dropping in front very close to the line but old monkeys can win this race. At around 66/1 I can pass on a good word for Mouse Morris’ Tinakellylad so I had a look at his form and amongst his chase runs he was second to Sizing Europe on his chase debut, beat Kempes in December and was only beaten seven lengths by Uimhiraceathair last time out. Those runs don’t entitle to him to be a 66/1 shot at all. I am not that keen on those towards the head of the market except for Synchronised for the O’Neill-McManus combination that have such a good record in the race so can see an upset here and also Abbeybraney who has form with Notre Pere and Barbers Shop from two years so is more experienced than the raw novices he is taking on.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
Advised Ante-Post Bet: None
I hope that Rite Of Passage proves me right and is a superstar but I am not going to back him at 3/1 in what is turning into a hot-looking race. All the money has been for Quel Esprit this week and I heard we can ignore his odds-on defeat last time as his blood was wrong but any value there was has all gone. Finians Rainbow strikes me as the best of the Brits on decent ground though I can see Reve De Sivola battling away. Of the front five in the market I would be least keen on Peddlers Cross who I feel should be running in the Supreme. I have respect for Summit Meeting but the really big prices were snapped up about him a couple of weeks ago. Rite Of Passage for me.

RSA CHASE
Advised Ante-Post Bet: Weapon’s Amnesty @ 14/1; Pettifour (ew) @ 50/1
Hand on heart I think Punchestowns will win but we have a tough, hardy horse in Weapon’s Amnesty running for us at 14/1 to each-way stakes who is now around an 8/1 shot and I am very hopeful we can draw on the each-way element of that bet especially now that Weird Al is out of the race. His jumping is a worry but he tends to warm up in that respect during his races but I am more worried that some of the stable’s horses have had mucus in their systems. If he is clear of those problems that have supposedly affected Solwhit and Pittoni (see Champion Hurdle), jumps okay and the ground is no worse than good-soft, then I think he is just the kind of horse to put up a big run back up to 3m which he needs. There are too many worries with Long Run for me (age, jumping and jockey) to contemplate backing him at around 5/2 and I readily prefer Punchestowns of the Henderson runners which will also include Burton Port who I just don’t see as good enough. I don’t think Diamond Harry likes it up him or will jump well enough and if The Nightingale runs it will be against his trainer’s wishes which is enough to put me off. I put up Pettifour back in November at 50/1 before he had jumped a fence in public stupidly off the back of Paddy Brennan’s comments he was schooling brilliantly so at 50/1 took a chance. I know many of you joined this service afterwards so hopefully you dodged that bullet. He goes for the four-miler. I must admit I’ve had a saver on Punchestowns at 7/2.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
Advised Ante-Post Bets: Master Minded to win by over 5 lengths @ 5/2; Petit Robin (ew) without Master Minded @ 25/1
I am still cursing Henderson for switching Petit Robin to the Ryanair Chase. He admits himself he chickened out so I hope he doesn’t stay in the Ryanair and gets stuffed as I felt we had a fantastic each-way bet at 25/1 without Master Minded before he won on his seasonal debut. Having finished third in the Champion Chase last season as basically a novice, I can only imagine they are running scared of Master Minded and he would still be running here if the defending two-time champion wasn’t so impressive at Newbury. Very annoying indeed. Nothing I’ve seen or heard has dissuaded me from my belief that Master Minded will bolt up as, at his best, he is in a different league to these and Nicholls feels he is back to his best which is good enough for me so I will be disappointed not to collect on the 5/2 advised about him winning by more than five lengths. If he is 4/5 on the day or better I can also see myself getting stuck in. I will back Kalahari King without Master Minded on the day and maybe also the forecast as I feel the race will be run to suit him sitting off the pace as Forpadydeplasterer, Big Zeb and Twist Magic fall away one by one by attempting to live with Master Minded, who I imagine will commit from some way out as that is when he is at his best, leaving Kalahari King to run through them.

CORAL CUP
Advised Ante-Post Bet: Quantitativeeasing (ew) @ 12/1 NR No Bet
When I advised Quantitativeeasing (ew) at 12/1 NR No Bet a week ago it was with a view that if he ran here that he would be favourite and I think there is every chance he will start favourite so he is another we have in the book at around double the odds he will be at the off giving us options. I still feel a mark of 139 could seriously underestimate him and he may be the one to improve Nicky Henderson’s poor record in the race. I can also let you know a friend of mine asked the official handicapper which horse at the meeting did he feel could have been let in most lightly and without a second’s hesitation he suggested Quantitativeeasing. Out chances have been increased slightly with news that the second-favourite Mourad has had a setback. Our bet didn’t win last time out which is something I like in the handicap hurdles so will doubtless dabble on a couple of those on the day and have the choice between Chicago Grey (trainer was disgusted with his British mark), Beshabar (not certain the ground will be soft enough for him), Lake Legend, Wishfull Thinking, Sir Harry Ormesher, Fruity O’Rooney, On Borrowed Wings, City Theatre and Good Old Thyme. Of those I most like Wishfull Thinking for the in-form Hobbs team that had the Imperial Cup 1-2 and can definitely see myself throwing a few quid at him at around 14/1.

FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES’ HURDLE
Advised Ante-Post Bet: Sanctuaire (ew) @ 12/1
Sanctuaire impressed on his British debut and meets an awful lot of the key trends and was likely to be the Nicholls-Walsh representative when I put him up at 12/1 so I felt we would comfortably beat the price and that looks a cert now as he is top priced 6/1 aided by Capellanus being ruled out on Friday, Olofi heading to the Triumph and Orzare being ruled out on Saturday. The vibes I am getting from Ditcheat is that he is very strongly fancied indeed and I think our 12/1 could be nearer 7/2 at the off. Given the way the Pipe horses are running I wouldn’t be mad keen on Notus De La Tour as near enough favourite as things stand if he runs here at all but have time for Barwell Bridge (ew) and Gilded Age but the latter is not sure to get in. Hopefully he won’t for our Sanctuaire bet as I rate him the main danger off his low weight and will save on him if he does get in.

WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER
Advised Ante-Post Bets: Frawley (ew) @ 25/1 NR No Bet; Day Of A Lifetime (ew) @ 12/1
Day Of A Lifetime is the only bumper horse to have wowed me this season so, after he won on his debut, I took a chance at 12s also encouraged by the race trends being a Mullins-trained, once-raced, successful five-year-old as that was the profile of five of his six winners of this race. Since then, my confidence has ebbed away somewhat as the vibes I am getting is that Mullins feels it will not be his year this time around from the four he plans to bring over. My other bet on Frawley (ew) at 25/1 NR No Bet, was from a value, trends and vibes perspective. He was the wrong price on his two lengths’ second to Elegant Concorde who is the 6/1 favourite and then won on his next start and his trainer is mustard in bumpers and doesn’t travel to these shores without very good reason. He had a 1-2 at last season’s Grand National meeting in a mares’ bumper. I note he is still being backed and he could be another we have double the odds about compared to his SP. I am much more happy with this bet than I am on the Day Of A Lifetime suggestion. The momentum horse is unquestionably Drumbaloo and I can see why as he is also the form horse and I also like the fact they have kept Tavern Times back for this race as many winners were put away for this contest having won before Christmas. Just one run would be a negative though as only Willie Mullins has won this race with a horse with such a profile. Hidden Universe is weak in the market as he doesn’t look getting his soft ground and is also a four-year-old and they have only won this race once. Al Ferof looks like the being the only serious British hope.

JEWSON NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE
Advised Ante-Post Bet: None
We nailed the 12/1 winner last season but I have not been able to find a real value bet this time around. My three against the field are Rivaliste who has been deliberately kept back since early December to protect his mark for last year’s winning stable and will not be ridden so aggressively this time, China Rock who has the solid pattern race form which I like for this race and Daves Dream who I think Henderson may have had this race in mind for him as was just qualifying him on his last two starts and the trainer’s runners in this race are to be noted. I worry that Sunnyhillboy could be on the small side for a big track and they may have shown the handicapper too much of their hand with Hey Big Spender. If I was suggest one bet it would be each-way on China Rock who I can see the Irish plunging onto.

PERTEMPS FINAL
Advised Ante-Post Bet: Silk Affair (ew) @ 16/1 NR No Bet
Alfie Sherrin is going to start at a very short price for this handicap and could be a class above his rivals but that means there is plenty of value about and I am happy with our interest on Silk Affair at 16/1 NR No Bet as feel she has been plotted up for this race by a very shrewd trainer. A winner at last season’s Festival, she isn’t that much higher in the handicap and really caught the eye at Sandown last time in a handicap where the last two Pertemps Final winners were also unplaced. She is a 5yo which is a negative but, in truth, not that many with big chances have run. As it is a handicap hurdle I will also be backing a couple of last-time-out winners on the day given horses with such a profile have won more handicap hurdles than not since 1993 from less than 20% of runners and I would be leaning towards Fredo and Prince Erik in this respect who won qualifiers for this race last time out. Neither appears to have been done any great favours by the handicapper but both were undeniably very easy winners of those qualifiers. Smoking Aces is another last-time-out winner to consider and strikes me as a horse crying out for this step up to three miles so I can also see myself backing him. The 20/1+ shot to interest me most in Maucaillou whose course form reads: 2344 so he is of definite each-way interest and Paul Nolan just gave him a little run to qualify at Leopardstown last time out. He will be bigger in-running though as he is held up a long way back, probably too far back in some of those Cheltenham runs so if he is ridden nearer to mid division or if they just go beserk up front and he sits out the back, I can see a really big run at a big price.

RYANAIR CHASE
Advised Ante-Post Bet: Voy Por Ustedes (ew) @ 10/1
After Voy Por Ustedes had ran in the Game Spirit Chase I had basically given up on this bet but Alan King has definitely not given up faith and is convinced he will improve a lot for the run and step back up to 2m5f at his favoured time of the season and first-time blinkers would also make him more interesting if they go down that route. He was most confident about him last night saying he would outclass these if taking to blinkers in a race and when I spoke with Noel Williams, his assistant, he told me that when the worked him in blinkers last week he took off like his tail was on fire. He is still the top-rated horse in the race and although I will be surprised if he wins I certainly think we now have big place claims and I’ve backed him again place only at 3/1. I can see him being well supported when news comes out he will wear blinkers. I’d be with Poquelin over Tranquil Sea given a choice as I just don’t see Barbers Shop as a winner of races with Scotsirish as the best 20/1+ shot as his form with Tranquil Sea entitles him to be shorter. Schindlers Hunt and Planet Of Sound both strike me as the types to continually come up short at this level.

WORLD HURDLE
Advised Ante-Post Bets: Time For Rupert (ew) @ 25/1; Katchit (ew) without Big Buck’s @ 14/1 NR No Bet
I can only see Big Buck’s beating himself rather than the opposition and believe that to be most unlikely and I will pleased if he wins having advised we lump on him at 4/1 at the start of the season for the BHA Order Of Merit for which he is around 6/4 now. I am a little annoyed with myself I didn’t hold on for longer so I could advise Time For Rupert e/w without Big Buck’s but the only firms betting without the favourite until recently were doing so win-only so I went with Time For Rupert as an each-way bet at 25/1 and am sure he will run well. Hopefully well enough to finish second or third as feel he has more improvement in him than his Cleeve Hurdle conqueror Tidal Bay and will also meet him on 4lbs better terms. I would certainly not put you off backing him without Big Buck’s now to each-way stakes at around 9/1. I have. The bet I did advise without Big Buck’s in the last week was Katchit each-way at 14/1. I reasoned if I like Time For Rupert then I must also like Katchit as little separated them in the Cleeve and reports of his homework since have been most encouraging and he never runs a bad race at Cheltenham. Speaking with the assistant trainer last night I know he much prefers him to Karabak as they worked together and Katchit worked much the better. He also told me that Katchit did an exceptional piece of work last week that came from right out of nowhere. Powerstation would be the best of the 25/1+ shots as has placed at the Festival three times before and looks like getting his decent ground but he is cracking on a bit now. Both are bets are trading at shorter odds than advised, notably the Katchit without the favourite advice.

BYRNE GROUP PLATE
Advised Ante-Post Bet: Tarotino (ew) @ 20/1 NR No Bet; Song Of Songs (ew) @ 14/1 NR No Bet
I have a second bet to add to our interest on Song Of Songs in this race and that is an each-way interest on Alan King’s Tarotino. The key to this horse is good ground and he looks like he will come close to that here on Thursday, a race they have trained him for since he got stuck in the mud in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. He had a good run over an inadequate 2m behind Kalahari King just to get him back on a racecourse and now it’s all systems go. What really made up mind to back and advise him was that at a preview last night they went through all 26 races and this was the only handicapper in the yard due to run he didn’t mention. My spies also tell me that King also skilfully dodged mentioning him at all at another preview on Thursday. When I mentioned this to him after the event, he just smiled and said nobody asked me! I know what I read into that. My other bet already advised was a gut fancy rather than a trends or form horse as I am convinced that the J P McManus team have been laying Song Of Songs out for this race all season and he has dropped this campaign to an eye-catching 138. I have a feeling the McManus team will have a lot of big handicap winners this spring watching many of them run this season and it started on Saturday when Qaspal won the Imperial Cup. His jumping is the concern, and maybe he is also better going right-handed, but hopefully the step up to 2m5f will help in the regard of the former. He didn’t stay in the Coral Cup when he came to win the race at the final flight two years ago but he is older so hopefully stronger now and they don’t go so fast over fences so should get home better plus the ground also looks like being more suitable. He looks like starting at about half the odds of 14/1 which I advised him at. Finger Onthe Pulse is another I considered (see Kim Muir analysis) but we don’t know where he runs yet.

FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE
Advised Ante-Post Bet: Shillingstone (ew) @ 16/1
I’m very happy with our Shillingstone (ew) bet at 16/1 who looks another we will have around the double the price of his SP. The Alners’ record in this race is top drawer and he has been trained for it since winning at Newbury on Hennessy day and had his prep at Sandown a few weeks back as did his one of previous winners of this race whilst the other also ran at Sandown on his penultimate start. Mark Walford rides and not Simon Allwood. Others I have time for are Fleet Street, Qhilimar and Finger Onthe Pulse and will consider those on the day. I came very close to advising Finger Onthe Pulse but the trip just concerns me a little. I know the Irish have a terrible record but I am very interested in the former Jewson winner especially as he is now owned by J P McManus this season so is likely to have been trained with the Festival in mind. Tom Taaffe has done very well to get in him in here off 137 given he was off just a 2lbs lower mark when beating Barbers Shop in the Jewson and he is now racing off a 13lbs lower mark than when fancied for last season’s Festival Plate where he was sixth. He is looking one seriously well handicapped horse to me and the yard love to plot up a Festival handicap winner as also proven by Ninetieth Minute in last season’s Coral Cup and, like him, Finger Onthe Pulse has been protecting his handicap mark by staying in his box this year, in fact, he has not run since the end of November. I do like a J P McManus handicapper at this meeting coming off a longish absence. The trip just nags me though so will probably jut have a saving interest if this is the race he goes for.

TRIUMPH HURDLE
Advised Ante-Post Bets: Secant Star (ew) @ 25/1; Mille Chief (ew) @ 10/1
We were looking so good in the race up to two weeks ago when Mille Chief was 5/1 (advised at 10s) and Secant Star was 7/1 (advised at 25s) but lameness has ruled out Mille Chief, and Secant Star has also encountered problems in his preparation in recent weeks so much so that Walsh has decided to ride Advisor for Nicholls instead hence his walk in the market so I am not confident at all even though we have a good value each-way bet on the face of it. It is so hard to win races at the Festival off the back of a less than perfect preparation so the best I am hoping for is that he can squeeze into the first three in a poor year. Alaivan is tiny and maybe a mud lover and I am not as convinced as Gordon Elliot that Carlito Brigante will stay so I have no strong view on this race. In fact, I could see a big-priced winner.

VINCENT O’BRIEN COUNTY HURDLE
Advised Ante-Post Bets: None
Subscribers to my Weekend NH Season previews will know that big two-mile handicaps don’t really do it for me. I am just no good at them. All I would say is that I advised Arcalis e/w at 66/1 in this race last season and with any sort of a ride he would have been placed (beaten a length and a half for fourth after having just one behind him two out) and it would not surprise me at all if sneaky old Howard Johnson had trained him for this race all season as he knows he needs decent ground which he looks like getting and he is 5lbs lower this season. His Festival record catches the eye having won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, finished fifth in the Champion Hurdle and fifth and seventh in the County Hurdle (the first time beaten only two lengths) so there are worse 50/1 each-way shots around than him even if he is a ten-year-old. As for the most likely winner, I really fancied Noble Prince for the Coral Cup so was surprised when they told us he was running here instead (after he was backed from 33/1 into 12/1 for the Coral Cup). I do think this is a Grade 1 horse at 2m4f and they may have wanted to run him on the Friday as he is a good ground horse plus, of course, they won’t hang around here over 2m1f. The novices Bellvano and Tito Bustillo are also major players so they would be my four against the field.

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
Advised Ante-Post Bets: Enterprise Park (win) @ 10/1; Tell Massini (win) @ 5/1
Rather than play each-way here, after going through the race many times, I felt very confident either Enterprise Park or Tell Massini would win so I suggested we back them win-only at 10/1 and 5/1 respectively. Since then, Enterprise Park has been very well supported and I can see him challenging Tell Massini hard for favouritism so reckon we will be on the front two in the market. Tell Massini is the form horse, the trends horse, loves the course and I have been hearing very good reports about his work and how much he has improved since his last win. The more rain the better his chance and rain is planned for Friday I believe. Enterprise Park’s form is not as good but he is unbeaten and his form is working out well and I like the way Mullins has trained him. I also like the fact his action suggests better ground will suit him but that is not a given for Tell Massini which is why I just prefer the Irish horses especially if Tell Massini and Restless Harry cut each other’s throats up front. Fionnegas would worry me more if he came here than Shinrock Paddy and I am just not sure The Betchworth Kid will stay well enough.

GOLD CUP
Advised Ante-Post Bet: None
With Kauto Star and Denman appearing so dominant for most of the season I have not been able to find a bet for the Gold Cup, not even in the ‘without’ markets as feel Cooldine and Imperial Commander have been correctly priced in those. There has been a big swelling of support for Tricky Trickster on the preview evening circuit to finish second or third but the value has now also dried up about him as a consequence. I personally feel that Kauto Star will win by a long way so will have a look at winning margin bets on the day and fancy Cooldine to finish second.

FOXHUNTERS’
Advised Ante-Post Bets: Trust Fund (ew) @ 10/1 NR No Bet
Trust Fund has to run very well hence the each-way advice at 10/1 as he was given a rating of 140 for the Grand National and you can generally run to around 135 and win this race. The winner of the Aintree Fox Hunters’ last season is older than ideal at the age of 12 but is lightly-raced for his age and is trained by Richard Barber who has expertly prepared four winners of this race so those factors offset his age for me. Roulez Cool is my main worry as he has been given a rating of 148 to run off in the Grand National and, if he runs to that, he could be the easiest winner of the week but 7/2 is short enough considering he had an injury scare last week and he has struggled home in two point-to-points this season. Kilty Storm could be the best of the Irish and be under-rated as Dun Doire wouldn’t have been good enough at his peak to win this race as was running off low marks when winning his big handicaps a few years back. Baby Run was third last year and respected but he didn’t appear to get home and this looks a better renewal

MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP HURDLE
Advised Ante-Post Bets: Ashkazar (win) @ 10/1 NR No Bet; Quantitativeeasing (ew) @ 12/1 NR No Bet
Figuring 139 could vastly under-rate Quantitativeeasing, I put him up NR No Bet for both this race and the Coral Cup and he looks like running in the former so stakes will be refunded here. That leaves us with a win bet on Ashkazar at 10/1 and I wasn’t best pleased to see Qaspal to win the Imperial Cup so well on Saturday as his penalty gives him a decent chance of squeezing into the race in which case he starts a hot favourite and we will not get the real value I thought we would with Ashkazar who I felt could start 5/1 on the day as momentum grew around him. Fingers crossed enough stay in so Qaspal doesn’t get a run as I reckon the Pipe’s have done an incredible job to drop him 20lbs this season to just a mark of 136. Maybe the horse has gone at the game but I suspect not and think this has been a long-term plot. Pevereil and Meath All Star appeal as best of the rest.

GRAND ANNUAL
Advised Ante-Post Bets: Beggars Cap (ew) @ 25/1 NR No Bet; Tataniano (win) @ 10/1 NR No Bet
First things first, I have to say I think this is the most competitive Grand Annual I have ever seen. Usually you can just look at the front half-dozen in the betting but I must have had marks for half a dozen horses this season in addition to the pair I advised we back. Regards the win-only bet Tataniano at 10/1, I just want to underline again I put him up principally as a back-to-lay as felt he would be favourite on the day for Nicholls who has had the last five favourites in this race (and won it twice) as it is getting-out stakes so the Nicholls-Walsh horse would be backed blindly. I will be laying off nearer the time leaving myself a free bet as just feel he isn’t exactly throw in off 144. Novices have a great record in this race but there are plenty of them likely to run this time and their winners have been rated no more than 135. Beggars Cap was a value e/w bet at 25/1 as he was running well in the race last year until crashing out and has been trained for it all season and we know how good Ferdy Murphy is with his handicappers at the Festival. He does need decent ground though so I hope the forecast for heavy rain on Friday is wrong. Others to interest me are You’re The Top, a Henderson novice in a race he is all out to win again being named in honour of his father and I prefer him to the highly-weighted French Opera especially as I understand Barry Geraghty will ride, the Irish novices Fosters Cross and Jered (especially the former if it’s decent ground but he needs to jump better) and Shoreacres, yet another novice and one who took the eye last time out and wasn’t far behind the best novice hurdlers last season. In fact, I am really starting to like the chances of You’re The Top who I could see backed into second-favourite on the day and I would be advising him at 16/1 today if I hadn’t already advised two in the race.

ANTE-POST SUGGESTED BETS:
Flat Out (ew) @ 33/1 (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) (win stake refunded if Dunguib wins)
Zaarito (ew) @ 25/1 (Arkle Trophy) NON RUNNER
Sports Line (ew) @ 14/1 (Arkle Trophy)
The Package (ew) @ 10/1 (William Hill Trophy)
Punjabi (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Hurdle)
Medermit @ 11/1 (Champion Hurdle)
No One Tells Me (ew) @ 20/1 (Mares Hurdle)
Weapon’s Amnesty (ew) @ 14/1 (RSA Chase)
Pettifour (ew) @ 50/1 (RSA Chase) NON RUNNER
*Petit Robin (ew) @ 25/1 w/o Master Minded (Champion Chase) NON RUNNER
*Master Minded to win by over five lengths @ 5/2 (Champion Chase)
Sanctuaire (ew) @ 12/1 (Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle)
Day Of A Lifetime (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Bumper)
Voy Por Ustedes (ew) @ 10/1 (Ryanair Chase)
Time For Rupert (ew) @ 25/1 (World Hurdle)
Shillingstone (ew) @ 16/1 (Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup)
Mille Chief (ew) @ 10/1 (Triumph Hurdle 1-2-3-4) NON RUNNER
Secant Star (ew) @ 25/1 (Triumph Hurdle)
Enterprise Park @ 10/1 (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle)
Tell Massini @ 5/1 (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle)

ANTE-POST SUGGESTED NON-RUNNER NO BETS:
Bensalem (win) @ 5/1 William Hill Trophy
Saddlers Storm (ew) @ 14/1 (NH Chase) NON RUNNER?
Mobaasher (ew) @ 16/1 (NH Chase)
Quantitativeeasing (ew) @ 12/1 (Coral Cup)
Frawley (ew) @ 25/1 (Champion Bumper)
Silk Affair (ew) @ 16/1 (Pertemps Final)
Katchit (ew) w/o Big Buck’s @ 14/1 (World Hurdle)
Song Of Songs (ew) @ 14/1 (Byrne Group Plate)
Tarotino (ew) @ 20/1 (Byrne Group Plate)
Trust Fund (ew) @ 10/1 (Foxhunters’)
Quantitativeeasing (ew) @ 12/1 (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle) NON RUNNER?
Ashkazar @ 10/1 (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle)
Beggars Cap (ew) @ 25/1 (Johnny Henderson Grand Annual)
Tataniano @ 10/1 (Johnny Henderson Grand Annual)

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