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Wednesday, March 17^th

NATIONAL HUNT CHASE
A six-year-old may have won this race last year but that was the first time in 20 years as it is a stern test of stamina for a young horse so I am treating that result as a one-off and it has been 32 years since a five-year-old won but they are not represented this time (trainers obviously learning!) Therefore TINAKELLYLAD (who I felt was a big price at 66/1 on form through three good horses in Sizing Europe, Kempes and Uimhiraceathair) and PRESENTING FOREVER are off my radar for being six-year-olds. I am also not having horses with less than three chase starts to their name as experience counts in the race as the last ten winners had all ran at least three times over fences which is against Presenting Forever who is the only such runner.

Given that all but two of the last 26 winners finished placed no worse than fourth last time out I can’t have out-of-form horses or those that lost their jockey last time out (especially in an amateur riders’ novice chase over four miles) so ANY CURRENCY, GENTLE RANGER, KILDONNAN, CARLAS DREAM and PRUDENT HONOUR are also not for me.

I don’t like the well-fancied MASSASOIT either. Not only because I don’t think he wants to know under pressure but Paul Nicholls also has a terrible record in the race with just one placed runner from 12 starters of which nine started in the first five in the betting. He may start favourite and no outright market leader has won since 1992 but ANY CURRENCY is likely to push him for that unwanted position in the market.

Onto the positive angles and the one I like best is that Jonjo O’Neill has won four of the last eight runnings and J P McManus has owned four runners in total so I can see their SYNCHRONISED being a huge player.

Ideally our selection will have enough experience but not have been over-raced in novice events either as six of the last seven winners had run three or four times over fences which brings in CAST CADA, FABALU, MASSASOIT, MOBAASHER, PENNEK, PETTIFOUR, SYNCHRONISED and YOUNGSTOWN.

SHORT LIST
SYNCHRONISED
MOBAASHER
FABALU
PENNEK

CONCLUSION
I like SYNCHRONISED’s chance for a number of reasons. Firstly he is trained by Jonjo O’Neill and owned by J P McManus who have combined to win this race three times and also enjoyed another winner each for other connections. Secondly, he won the same Chepstow novices’ chase that Wichita Lineman won last season in the same staying style and he was a warm favourite for this race until successfully switched to the William Hill Trophy. And thirdly, Synchronised was in the William Hill Trophy himself until the overnight stage which tells us how much they think of him, in fact, he was the owner’s only entry for that race but they still wanted to come here instead taking on fellow novices. The Donald McCain Jnr-trained pair of YOUNGSTOWN and FABALU could have both made the short list on trends but we don’t want more than four on a short list ideally so I went with Fabalu as he looks the stronger stayer. MOBAASHER is another fit the profile. I know he is a rogue but he loves decent ground and was a 157-rated hurdler so along with PETTIFOUR, they are the class acts of the race over timber. His Festival record also catches the eye having been third in a Triumph, placed in the Pertemps Final and seventh in the Grade 1 World Hurdle, he will need to be delivered late but I fancy him strong to be in the first four. PENNEK completes the short list as the yard won this two years ago and he also has Festival form having finished third in last season’s Pertemps Final and he appeals as a thorough stayer in the making.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
On the age front only French Holly has won this race for horses aged over six since it was inaugurated in 1971 which is against FINIAN’S RAINBOW, BAILY ROCK, QUARTANO, SOME PRESENT and THE KNOXS. Regards to Finian’s Rainbow, Nicky Henderson is also 0-20 in this race with, staggeringly, just one finisher higher than tenth in the last 20 years.

Finian’s Rainbow was arguably the chief home hope alongside REVE DE SIVOLA but, on stats, I have to be against him as well as all 12 Challow Hurdle winners to run here were beaten as Cheltenham ground in the spring is usually much different from Newbury ground in December. I know the form of that race has been franked but a blanket covered the first four home that day and they all can’t be top class though I agree with one of his joint owners that he would have won by five lengths if he had jumped properly and he has been extensively schooled since.

As with all the novice races, if a horse couldn’t finish better than third place last time out then it is highly unlikely to be winning at the Festival and 25 of the last 26 winners either won or finished second last time out so I can’t have CONSULATE, HOLLO LADIES, MANYRIVERSTOCROSS, QUARTANO, SLEEPY HOLLOW, SOME PRESENT or THE GIANT BOLSTER.

I also prefer plenty of hurdling experience for the hustle and bustle of this race and 20 of the last 23 winners had ran at least three times over hurdles so it has to be a negative for RITE OF PASSAGE’s chance that he fails that stat as does GUS MACRAE and PEDDLERS CROSS. I also much prefer pattern-race form in the book but Rite Of Passage of who is trained by Dermot Weld who hasn’t trained a Festival winner since 1990 from 23 runners, has failed to take in such a race so far. I love him as a horse but he is not a trends horse for this particular race.

As far as the positives are concerned, this race has traditionally been a strong one for the leading fancies with 22 of the last 24 winners starting in the first six in the betting, positions likely to be occupied by RITE OF PASSAGE, QUEL ESPRIT, FINIAN’S RAINBOW, PEDDLERS CROSS, REVE DE SIVOLA and SUMMIT MEETING.

The Irish won all three all-aged novice hurdles at last season’s Festival and this is their second most successful race at the meeting since 1997 so that’s another plus for QUEL ESPRIT and SUMMIT MEETING in addition to RITE OF PASSAGE, BAILY ROCK, HOLLO LADIE and SOME PRESENT.

SHORT LIST
QUEL ESPRIT
SUMMIT MEETING
GHIZAO

CONCLUSION
QUEL ESPRIT would be the main fancy here being a well-fancied, Irish-trained horse with pattern race form, enough hurdling experience and who finished in the first two last time out. To put the icing on the cake, Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh have combined to win the last two runnings of this race and they could have taken the supposedly easier option of the Albert Bartlett over three miles instead but have gone for the race with the greater tradition which I feel tells us something – that Mullins does indeed feel this is the best novice hurdler in his yard. Yes, he was beaten at long odds-on last time out but the yard’s horses were running just a little off at the time and there have been reports his blood wasn’t quite right and he has been given a nice break since and been all the rage for this race from 12s into 4s in the last week suggesting stable confidence is high. SUMMIT MEETING also passes all the key trends and looks the best of those at a double-figure price. Interestingly, Jessica Harrington lets him take his chance here rather than Coole River who upset Quel Esprit last time out and rates him as her best chance of a winner this week though, before we get excited, she wouldn’t have that much. GHIZAO escapes all the negative trends and is a last-time-out winner representing the Champion Trainer so he should not be underestimated even if Ruby Walsh prefers to ride Quel Esprit.

RSA CHASE
Stats dictate I have to be against LONG RUN. Only one 5yo has won this race since 1950 and that was when they received 10lbs. Now they just receive 1lb. I did say 2lbs in the Guide but it all depends which dates the race take place. This is in addition to the fact that all 16 Feltham Chase winners to turn up here got turned over, his amateur can’t utilise his claim and this will be the first time he has not raced on a flat track so his low, diving style of getting over fences will be tested to the limit especially given how keen he is and being amateur-ridden. At around 9/4 he is short enough given all those concerns so that is the potential favourite out of the equation for me.

The second and third favourites are also far from ideal stats horses as both PUNCHESTOWNS and DIAMOND HARRY have only had two chase starts whereas the last ten winners of this race had run at least three times over fences. Experience and toughness count in this race and that pair are short of the former and I would argue Diamond Harry is also short on the latter when push comes to shove at top level.

WEAPON’S AMNESTY is a previous Festival winner but he is a non Mullins-trained Irish raider and none of them have won since 1985. On the face of it that’s a tough stat to overcome but I felt he ran out a cosy winner of last season’s Albert Bartlett Hurdle where crucially he had decent ground and 3m and has not had those conditions until today providing the ground doesn’t turn. He is just the tough, hard sort of horse that has won this race many times down the years and I envisage a big run if his jumping holds up as he can be ponderous at his obstacles but I have to leave him out on the Irish stat. CHASING CARS would also fail on that stat.

Nicky Henderson has said he would be more than happy to have BURTON PORT as his chief contender in any normal year. The winner of his last three races including the Reynoldstown Chase last time out which is no longer a bogey race after Albertas Run won it before winning here (the relaying of the track making it a quicker surface has helped enormously in that respect), the trainer really wanted to save him for Aintree which is offputting but the owner wanted to run but what nags me more is he is only a six-year-old and just two have won since 1978. At the other end of the scale FLIGHT LEADER is a ten-year-old so is a big negative.

SHORT LIST
CITIZEN VIC
KNOCKARA BEAU
LITTLE JOSH

CONCLUSION
Blimey, that’s an interesting trends-based short list! CITIZEN VIC represents the Willie Mullins stable with an outstanding record in this race having won it three times and had two other seconds and comes here a progressive novice having won his last three starts including the Grade 1 Dr P J Moriarty Chase that the same yard won with Cooldine before he blew away the opposition here. I appreciate he may not have lined up if the stable’s number one Uimhiraceathair had not suffered a setback last week but you can’t beat having a Grade 1 winning novice chaser as a substitute. He has to prove himself as a stayer but there have been winners of this race finding improvement for their first step up to three miles over fences – Cooldine last year for example. KNOCKARA BEAU wouldn’t be the first placed horse in the Reynoldstown Chase to win the RSA Chase by any stretch of the imagination and they have a far better record down the years as a winner. He jumped badly left when second that day so did quite well to finish second but they discovered he hurt his back slipping into the second fence which caused that and that problem has since been remedied. LITTLE JOSH was talked up Nigel Twiston-Davies as his best novice at the start of the season and could be under-rated if he puts in a clear round. PUNCHESTOWNS may be one run short of the required chasing experience but of the leading players I make him the most likely winner. Aside from just two chase runs he is otherwise solid on patterns and of course raw ability plus he also won the Berkshire Novices’ Chase, a race in which two of the last ten RSA Chase also won. He may not have the brilliance of Long Run if home reports of the latter are to be believed (and there is no reason why they shouldn’t) but he is the best hurdler to ever tackle this race in my opinion and I rate him the more likely to stand up which counts for a lot in this race.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
A select field of nine have been declared though that might be eight if OH CRICK misses the race in preference for the Grand Annual but he is hard to fancy anyway having finished unplaced last time out as all winners since 1978 were placed at worst on their most recent start if not tipping up. Eight is good as that won’t kill the each-way bet that many will want to play in with such a warm favourite.

Very much a fancied horse’s race, ten of the last 11 winners started at no bigger than 5/1 so on that basis it is hard to look away from MASTER MINDED and maybe KALAHARI KING who will be the each-way thieves’ horse of the race. Only two of the 28 winners started at double-figure odds which would also bring in TWIST MAGIC and maybe BIG ZEB and FORPADYDEPLASTER but nothing else can surely win.

Ratings stats have been important and if a horse is not rated 160+ then they are in trouble as 7 of the last 8 winners had achieved that feat and only MASTER MINDED, TWIST MAGIC and WELL CHIEF qualify and the latter is surely too old at the age of 11. Seven of the last eight winners were also Grade 1 winners which counts heavily against KALAHARI KING, OH CRICK and MAHOGANY BLAZE.

The key trial in the same season has been the Tingle Creek by a long way as 7 of the last 9 winners ran in that race which saw a back-to-form TWIST MAGIC take FORPADYDEPLASTER, WELL CHIEF, MAHOGANY BLAZE and BIG ZEB apart. It can be argued he is a small-field, right-handed track horse when allowed to dominate and Forpadydeplasterer will enjoy the better ground and going left-handed but he did crush him. Big Zeb just didn’t jump which has always been his problem. The next best guide with four winners in the last decade is last year’s renewal which MASTER MINDED won easily despite not being at his best from WELL CHIEF followed by the Game Spirit Chase (x3 wins) where the two-time defending champion looked right back to his best following his well-documented rib injury, the Victor Chandler Chase (x3 wins) that was won by Twist Magic and last season’s Arkle in which Forpadydeplasterer got the run of the race to beat an unlucky KALAHARI KING by a narrow margin. I feel the latter will reverse in a smaller field but it is worth noting that the last 11 Arkle winners to run here a year later all finished in the first three.

I would be against BIG ZEB and BARKER as they have no Cheltenham Festival form and neither does the outclassed MAHOGANY BLAZE. Nineteen of the last 25 Champion Chase winners had been placed at the Festival before. TWIST MAGIC is officially a non qualifier but he looked set to play a huge part in the Arkle until falling two out.

SHORT LIST
MASTER MINDED
TWIST MAGIC

CONCLUSION
MASTER MINDED is a class above these at his best and looked right back to his best after his well-documented rib fracture at Newbury last time. What hasn’t been anywhere near as well documented is his cramping (tying up) problems that plagued him last spring that they seem most reluctant to expand on for whatever reason and that is my only niggle. Hopefully he is over both problems and, if he is, we will surely see another magnificent performance. In my view he is massively overpriced even at around 4/5 (could be bigger) as I feel he should be nearer 4/9 and have got stuck into winning by over five lengths at 5/2 a couple of weeks back. TWIST MAGIC is the only other qualifier having won two of the key trials including the highly influential Tingle Creek Chase and he is French-bred like 5 of the last 9 winners, is trained by Paul Nicholls who has saddled four winners and five placed horses and is one of just three horses that passes the official ratings stats. My personal view is that KALAHARI KING will run through beaten horses to finish second whoever the winner is as the race could be set up to suit his running style running on late whilst more prominently ridden rivals drop away. He is not a Grade 1 winner or rated 160+ however so fails to make the short list bur rates as a solid place-only bet at around 10/11. Of the Irish, and they have won three of the last runnings, I prefer FORPADYDEPLASTERER to BIG ZEB on both jumping and ground factors.

CORAL CUP
Given that since this race was first run in 1993 no winner has been rated higher than 147, we’ll knock those out for starters so I won’t be considering the top weight CHICAGO GREY but he is the only non qualifier on that score.

Onto the positive stats and the one that most catches my eye is that six of the last seven winners won last time out. That’s huge in a race as competitive as this and last-time-out winners do have an exception record full stop in the Festival handicap hurdles for many years which brings in CHICAGO GREY, LAKE LEGEND, WISHFULL THINKING, SIR HARRY ORMESHER, CITY THEATRE, GOOD OLD THYME, HAMPSHIRE EXPRESS and SHADOW DANCER who sneaks in right off bottom weight for jonjo O’Neill and J P McManus.

This is also a handicap in which the Irish have fared very well down the years winning six of the last 15 runnings and obviously from far fewer runners then the home team. Their raiding squad this time is made up of CHICAGO GREY, SILVERHAND, DEUTSCHLAND, BALLYVOILE and HAMPSHIRE EXPRESS.

I also like a freshness angle for the Coral Cup and more than half of the last 14 winners had ran no more than three times earlier in the season (not counting Punchestown last year). Non qualifiers are MICHEAL FLIPS, RING THE BOSS, SILVERHAND, DEUTSCHLAND, CHIEF YEOMAN, RACING DEMON, BALLYVOILE, SILK AFFAIR, CITY THEATRE, TULLAMORE DEW, GOOD OLD THYME and SHADOW DANCER.

In keeping with the freshness angle, three of the last four winners had run since the previous year which brings in CHICAGO GREY, ANDYTOWN, LAKE LEGEND, JAMES DE VASSY, ON RAGLAN ROAD, SILVERHAND, ELEAZAR, NAIAD DU MISSELOT and SHADOW DANCER.

Nicky Henderson has a surprising poor record with just three placed horses from 24 runners which may put off supporters of his QUANTITATIVEEASING, SPIRIT RIVER, ANDYTOWN and GOLD AWARD but trainers with a smart record include Philip Hobbs who runs WISHFULL THINKING.

SHORT LIST
WISHFULL THINKING
LAKE LEGEND
SIR HARRY ORMESHER
JAMES DE VASSY
(SILVERHAND)

CONCLUSION
Plenty of qualifiers of trends but we can’t include them all so I decided not to go with TAKEROC, ON RAGLAN ROAD, TULLAMORE DEW, HAMPSHIRE BOY ELEAZAR, NAIAD DU MISSELOT or MAMLOOK but wouldn’t put you off them if they took your fancy. WISHFULL THINKING would be the number one trends pick as he won last time out, is lightly-raced this season and his in-form trainer (had the Imperial Cup 1-2) has a very good record in the race. Also included are Alan King’s pair of lightly-raced this season last-time-out winners LAKE LEGEND and SIR HARRY ORMESHER who he finds hard to split though the latter is a nutcase so watch him in the prelims first if he your fancy and see he doesn’t kill anyone. Lake Legend went up 10lbs for his last win which was plenty but he has a great strike rate and I just prefer him of the pair. Hutchinson rides as it his ride so don’t be fooled by jockey bookings. I like the fact the top-class Nick Williams has kept JAMES DE VASSY back for this for 103 days and he was favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle so I can see a big run from him as I can SILVERHAND. He is one of three very interesting J P McManus owned runners and I do like handicappers at this meeting that come off breaks. His other two runners also look very well in they being QUANTITATIVEEASING and SHADOW DANCER but the former’s trainer has a poor record in the race and the latter has had plenty if runs, though significantly, none for 98 days. He is intriguing but I can’t have any more on the short list.

FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES’ HURDLE
This race hasn’t been going long but a number of trends are emerging. Firstly, and most importantly I would argue given that over half the handicap hurdle winners at the Festival since 1993 also won last time out from around 20% representation, so that is the first angle especially as the last four winners all won last time out. Qualifiers are OPEN DAY, NOTUS DE LA TOUR, SON AMIX, FIN VIN DE LEU, BOTHY, SANCTUAIRE, NED OF THE HILL, HUNTERVIEW and STORMY WEATHER. That is my starting poingt

The second angle I like is that all five winners were beaten on their first two starts over hurdles which certainly isn’t going to harm their handicap mark. Of those left (the last time out winners) that knocks out only BOTHY.

The third angle I like is that three of the last four winners were French imports which brings in SANCTUAIRE, NOTUS DE LA TOUR, SON AMIX and STORMY WEATHER.

The fourth angle I am keen on is that four of the five winners could be found in the top-third in the handicap which suggests that class tells in these juvenile handicap hurdles. The downside to that argument is that it was last year’s winner that bucked the trend and the most recent trends are the most important. The top third are STAR DU GRANITS, OPEN DAY, BACCALAUREATE, NOTUS DE LA TOUR, SON AMIX, CAUSEWAY KING, FIN VIN DE LEU and DIKTALINA.

The trainer to note has been David Pipe with a winner, a second and a third so far and he runs NOTUS DE LA TOUR. He hasn’t run just three times like 3 of the 5 winners but SANCTUAIRE has as have FIN VIN DE LEU, BOTHY, NED OF THE HILL, HUNTERVIEW, SHANROD, THEOLOGIST, KUDU COUNTRY, LOCH LONG and STORMY WEATHER.

SHORT LIST
SANCTUAIRE
NOTUS DE LA TOUR
SON AMIX
STORMY WEATHER

CONCLUSION
SANCTUAIRE is a trends pick as he was beaten on his first two starts, won last time out, is a French import and has had exactly three runs to qualify for a handicap mark and has not run since. I like him a lot and he only misses out on not being in the top third of the handicap but neither was last year’s winner and a lowish weight can not be a bad thing in a handicap. NOTUS DE LA TOUR also fits most patterns except for having more than three runs so I like him if the Pipe runners run well beforehand as there is a doubt over the form of their yard coming into the meeting. SON AMIX and STORMY WEATHER also appeal being last time out winners that were French imports and beaten on their first two handicap marks. DIKTALINA may have been beaten last time out but I do like a couple of angles with her. Firstly she is a Sandown winner as were the last three ‘Fred Winter’ winners and that is no coincidence as both tracks have stiff uphill finishes plus she is a filly and they have won two of the five running so far from very few runners. OPEN DAY is also a Sandown winner and have time for him in a race where too many meet the stronger trends to be frank.

WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER
A number of strong negative patterns here, the strongest of which being to get shot of horses beaten last time out as they have only won two of the 17 runnings so I am not having the likes of BACK AT THE RANCH, BASFORD BOB, CARPINCHO, DE FORGOTTEM MAN, MADE IN TIME, MEGASTAR, SHEER GENIUS or SUPER VILLAN winning here.

Next to go are the Brits as the Irish have all won 14 of the 17 runnings. In short they are trained with this race in mind and the home ‘defence’ for want of a better word prefer to keep their better bumper horses at their stables. On that basis I will not be backing AL FEROF, DARE ME, DUNRAVEN STORM, ON HIS OWN or CUE CARD either.

The third big negative pattern is that four-year-old struggle big time with only one victory and the race is restricted to just four, five and six-year-olds so I have to be against the well fancied HIDDEN UNIVERSE in addition to CUE CARD.

Willie Mullins has a sensational record with six winners and will be represented by DAY OF A LIFETIME, BISHOPSFURZE and UP OU THAT. I would be least keen on Up Ou That as he is twice-raced whereas five of Mullins’ six winners in this race were once-raced five-year-old like his other three runners. Significantly, Willie Mullins is the only trainer to have won this race with a once-raced horse and he has managed that feat five times! Six of the last seven winners had run at least three times but I would be more confident opposing just once-raced contenders that did not emanate for Mullins’ yard which are TAVERN TIMES, DUNRAVEN STORM, SHANNON SPIRIT, CUE CARD and HIDDEN UNIVERSE.

Onto the positive stats and I do like a horse that after it won its bumper before the new year was then put away for this race like five of the last seven winners. This brings in DRUMBALOO, DUNRAVEN STORM, ELEGANT CONCORDE and TAVERN TIMES.

Form also counts for plenty in this race, in fact, three of the last seven winners were either top-rated or second top-rated. Bumper ratings are kept but not published so it is tricky working out which will be top but my feeling is that DRUMBALOO will be top-rated followed by ELEGANT CONCORDE.

Finally, this has been a punters’ race with all but three of the 17 runnings falling to a horse in the first six in the betting. At present, stress at present as big moves in bumper races are all too prevalent, those six positions are headed by ELEGANT CONCORDE, DRUMBALOO, SHOT FROM THE HIP, AL FEROF, HIDDEN UNIVERSE and DAY OF A LIFETIME.

SHORT LIST
DRUMBALOO
ELEGANT CONCORDE
DAY OF A LIFETIME
SHOT FROM THE HIP

CONCLUSION
What we want is an Irish horse in the first six in the betting that won last time out and we are not short of those. I do like Leopardstown Christmas Meeting bumper form for this race and ELEGANT CONCORDE beat FRAWLEY in the same event which was won by Wither or Which and Florida Pearl before they won this race and he would be highly rated. The runner-up also franked that form next time out. DRUMBALOO is arguably the form horse though and he won the same race as Dunguib last year before being putting away for three months. We have to have a Willie Mullins horse as he has won no less than six of these and I prefer DAY OF A LIFETIME to BISHOPSFURZE and UP OU THAT and the final slot goes to SHOT FROM THE HIP who won a quality bumper last time but his amateur will not be able to claim.

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