Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide Update – Day 3

Wed, Mar 17, 2010

Thursday, March 18^th

JEWSON NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE
Firstly let’s only concern ourselves with horses that won or finished last time out like all five winners of this race from just under 50% representation so you can see its importance especially when they have also supplied three 1-2-3s and another 1-2 in those five years so I have to be against SEVEN IS MY NUMBER, LENABANE, JERED, CHINA ROCK, DOOR BOY and DAVE’S DREAM.

I do feel it is very interesting that all ten novice handicaps at the Festival (before the Fred Winter which will be run after I have sent this copy) have been won by horse that were beaten on their first two starts in their new discipline and all five Jewson winners had won no more than once over fences. That suggests to me we need a horse that has effectively been trained with this race in mind.

Clearly 133-135 is a very narrow ratings band yet the last four winners could all be located within that small parameter and qualifiers today are the two bottom weights TANKS FOR THAT and KING’S FOREST.

Jonjo O’Neill has been responsible for two seconds in this race to date and this is a race he would dearly love to win as Jewson are his stable sponsor but Sunnyhillboy was balloted out so runs in the Plate instead. If it’s a Festival handicap, then we also have to look twice at every J P McManus runner whatever its price. His Reveillez was a superbly-plotted up winner in 2006 and his Bob Hall only found one better handicapped so JERED is interesting here, especially on better ground. Nicky Henderson is another stable to interest me as not only does his record in the Festival handicap chases pass the closest scrutiny but three of his seven contenders have hit the frame and another was travelling powerfully just tracking the pace when brought down in the inaugural running and he is responsible for DAVE’S DREAM, TANKS FOR THAT and WORKING TITLE.

A stat I do like is that three of the five winners had contested a pattern race earlier in their career which brings in CHINA ROCK, JERED, TAKE THE BREEZE, LENABANE, NICANOR, COPPER BLEU, HEY BIG SPENDER, THE MIDNIGHT CLUB, SEVEN IS MY NUMBER and OTHERMIX.

I’d say it’s probably coincidence but seven-year-olds had won the first four runnings and they are represented by TAKE THE BREEZE, HEY BIG SPENDER, CHINA ROCK, DOOR BOY, DAVE’S DREAM, THE HOLLINWELL and TANKS FOR THAT but I am more interesting in opposing novices aged eight and over as they are 0-29 so far in this race so would be against SEVEN IS MY NUMBER, LENABANE, JERED, NICANOR, COPPER BLEU, THE MIDNIGHT CLUB, WORKING TITLE and GANSEY.

SHORT LIST
TANKS FOR THAT
RIVALISTE
THE HOLLINWELL
COPPER BLEU

CONCLUSION
TANKS FOR THAT ticks a lot of boxes as he is the right tight ratings band, ran well last time out, is the right age and his trainer has had many run well in the race. RIVALISTE isn’t far off that rating band and the yard plotted up Chapoturgeon to win this race last season and have done so again with this fellow French-bred having not run him since caught on the line in December when sent to the front too early. Nicholls has deliberately held him back since to protect his handicap mark and you can be sure Ruby Walsh will be holding on to him for longer this time. He is the right age and has the right kind of profile. Ferdy Murphy has won this race with L’Antartique and THE HOLLINWELL has been given a very similar kind of preparation so I respect his chance and I ought to put at least one horse with pattern-race form in the shortlist given they have a decent record and like COPPER BLEU most of those. Placed in the Cheltenham and Aintree Festival novice hurdles last season, the yard are in top form and he likes good ground.

PERTEMPS FINAL
You can’t beat a last-time-out winners in the Festival handicap hurdles and, before this year, they had won over half such races at the meeting since 1994 from around only 20% representation. As far as this particular handicap is concerned, they have won 64% of runnings stretching back to 1995 from just 19% representation so that’s a massive positive for TRENCHANT, ALFIE SHERRIN, PRINCE ERIK, SMOKING ACES, FREDO and CROSS KENNON.

The switching of this race from the Old Course to the less-demanding New Course in 2005 should have theoretically assisted the five-year-olds but the fact of the matter is that in 35 runnings of the race only one has won and he almost won the World Hurdle later in his career. Therefore I have to be against MR THRILLER, TRENCHANT, ERZEN and SILK AFFAIR (also declared for Wednesday’s Coral Cup so unlikely to run unless pulled out of that). A seven-year-old won last year’s race but horses as old as nine have won four of the last 11 runnings which further underlines the point that experience should very much be favoured over youth in this handicap. Ten years of age, however, is just a little too old for me backed up by the fact that there has been no winner of this handicap aged in double digits since in 1981 or indeed, no winning hurdler at the Festival all told aged ten or older for 15 years so BALLYFITZ and DON’T PUSH IT are not for me.

Since Pharanear’s success in 1997 all winners were officially rated no higher than 148 beforehand and, of the 11 horses rated 150+ that have run since 1997, only one has finished in the first six places so on that evidence I am not backing MR THRILLER or BALLYFITZ.

Other stats worth noting are that novices have won three of the last 11 runnings

Being a Final there are qualifiers run all season of which the best has been at Leopardstown which has highlighted five winners since the early-90s which is where PRINCE ERIK showed a great turn of foot to win with BOULAVOGUE in third, MAUCAILLOU a quiet seventh and MONTANA SLIM back in fourteenth. Obviously this has contributed to a fine Irish record in this race including a 1-2-3 not so long ago. However, the best recent guide hasn’t been a qualifier at all but the totescoop6 Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown which was responsible for two of the last three winners (both unplaced) in addition to Rubhahunish doubling up in both races in 2000. SILK AFFAIR took part in this year’s race and was an eye catcher in fifth with ERZEN finishing second and TRENCHANT back in ninth. Last season’s winner of the Final qualified when the Warwick qualifier was abandoned as had been entered and it also worth noting the 1996, 1997, 1998, 2003 and 2008 winners of the Pertemps Final also qualified without having to run in a qualifier as were entered for an abandoned qualifier.

The connections to follow have undoubtedly been Jonjo O’Neill and J P McManus who have three wins apiece in the race and are represented this year by DON’T PUSH IT and J P also has SMOKING ACES going for him.

SHORT LIST
SMOKING ACES
PRINCE ERIK
ALFIE SHERRIN
FREDO
(MAUCAILLOU)

CONCLUSION
Tom Taaffe has won handicaps at the last two Festivals and I like SMOKING ACES’ chances of making it three for J P McManus who loves this race. Importantly he is a last time out winner and he ran on so well to just get up over 2m4f last time he looks to be crying out for this trip. PRINCE ERIK was an impressive winner of the best qualifier when winning at Leopardstown so makes the short list as does FREDO who bolted up in the Haydock qualifier. Maybe both were raised a touch more than ideal but they are bang in form which is what we need for this race. ALFIE SHERRIN is a short price but could easily be another Unsinkable Boxer and is another last time out winner but, unlike the others, he could be right out of the top drawer. MAUCAILLOU didn’t win last time out but caught the eye in seventh in the Leopardstown qualifier which has been the best guide and has run four terrific races at the course so must have a cracking each-way price at around the 25/1 mark. DON’T PUSH IT has the right connections and I like the break but he is a ten-year-old and was beaten last time out so he doesn’t make the short list. There is nothing wrong with CROSS KENNON’s form chance either but I can’t have too many.

RYANAIR CHASE
Although there are only five years to work off, the Ryanair Chase is already proving to be a strong race for patterns and the best angle has been to concentrate on previous course winners as 9 of the 10 winners and runners-up had won at Cheltenham before which brings in only POQUELIN, TRANQUIL SEA, VOY POR USTEDES, ALBERTAS RUN and JACK THE GIANT. That’s a mighty strong statistic considering that 48 horses have run in the Ryanair Chase and, of those, only marginally more than half (26) had won at the track before.

Looking more closely at that Cheltenham form, two Ryanair winners had finished second in this race last season which is a positive for VOY POR USTEDES but the big guide has been the Paddy Power Gold Cup as four of the last five winners ran a big race in that contest in which TRANQUIL SEA appreciated the testing ground more than the runner-up POQUELIN this season. The only year the Ryanair winner did not contest the ‘Paddy Power’ was when Old Vic won and he had won a ‘Paddy Power’ in a previous season. It would be harsh to knock BARBERS SHOP as not being a Cheltenham horse as he was second to what we now know is a top class horse in Imperial Commander in last season’s Paddy Power Gold Cup and was also second in a Jewson, both over around this trip. Poquelin went on to win the Boylesports Gold Cup which is also a highly significant guide having featured three of the five winners so you can see why I am so keen on previous high-class Cheltenham form. The race to consider outside of Cheltenham is the King George VI Chase as two of the five Ryanair winners contested that race and in which Barbers Shop was probably a non-staying third this time around.

The two dodgy trials have been the Peterborough Chase won by DEEP PURPLE from ALBERTAS RUN and the Ascot Chase won by Monet’s Garden who doesn’t run but the race is represented by PLANET OF SOUND who took a heavy fall as winners of those races are 0-8.

French-breds possess a glittering overall record in steeplechases at the Festival up to 2m5f winning 9 of the last 12 such events (unlucky not to have been 11) and their representatives this season are POQUELIN, VOY POR USTEDE, J’Y VOLE and PETIT ROBIN.

Officially rated 156 heading into last season’s race, Imperial Commander became the fourth Ryanair Chase winner in five runnings to be found between the relatively narrow ratings band of 152-157 which would bring in J’Y VOLE (157), SCOTSIRISH (157), TRANQUIL SEA (157) and BARBERS SHOP (156).

Early days but Paul Nicholls has the best record to date winning twice and he has a strong trends contender in POQUELIN who also looks like getting his ground so expect him to better backed than Tranquil Sea in his bid to win this race for a third time in six years.

Finally, and importantly I think, all five winners started at no bigger than 6/1 so this looks like being a race for the punters this year and in many years to come. Of the 15 win-and-placed horses, all but four could be found in the top four in the betting which look like being POQUELIN, TRANQUIL SEA, BARBERS SHOP and maybe SCHINDLERS HUNT though I can see each-way support for PLANET OF SOUND with the yard in red-hot form and also for VOY POR USTEDES given first time blinkers and his Festival record.

SHORT LIST
POQUELIN
VOY POR USTEDES
TRANQUIL SEA

CONCLUSION
POQUELIN is a strong trends horse as he has winning course form, has run in the two most significant guides finishing first and second, is a French-bred, will be well fancied like all his previous winners and his trainer has already bagged this race twice. To top it off it looks like he will also have his much needed decent ground so it was an even better performance than many realise when he won the Boylesports Gold Cup on ground he would not have liked. I can see a big run from VOY POR USTEDES in first-time blinkers and back on decent ground as this is a spring horse with a Festival record that reads: 1122. Incidentally, I was told by the yard he worked like his tail was on fire the first time he wore blinkers last week ahead of wearing for the first time in a race today. He too has winning course form and is a French-bred plus he was second in this race last year like two previous Ryanair winners. I see him as a big each-way shot. Edward O’Grady is convinced TRANQUIL SEA goes on any ground but there is no doubt his chance would have been enhanced by a better surface and many will fancy Poquelin to reverse Paddy Power Gold Cup places on very different ground. He did win that race however and that has been the key guide and he also fits into the ratings band that has supplied four of the five winners so more than deserves his place on the shortlist. The ground has come right for ALBERTAS RUN and DEEP PURPLE but looks to have gone against J’Y VOLE. Many feel BARBERS SHOP is Henderson’s number one but it is worth noting his stablemate JACK THE GIANT is officially 4lbs his superior yet available at 3-4 times the price and he has that all-important course win to his name.

LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE
Given just one of the last 22 winners was unplaced last time out let’s get shot of COUSIN VINNY, EBADIYAN, FAIR ALONG and LIE FORRIT before we do anything else.

With four of the last nine winners either recording a victory or finding just one too good in the Cleeve Hurdle including the last three winners, I do like this race as a trial especially as those last three winners came after the distance was moved up to the World Hurdle trip of three miles and this season’s representatives were TIDAL BAY (1^st), TIME FOR RUPERT (2nd), KATCHIT (3^rd), FAIR ALONG (7^th) and LIE FORRIT (pulled up). This season’s ‘Cleeve’ was run at an unrelenting gallop so the form should stand up well.

The Long Walk Hurdle is not as strong a guide as it used to be but he still has a rich tradition winning 7 of the last 16 runnings. Re-routed to Newbury this season BIG BUCK’S won despite the heavy ground rather than because of it overcoming his trademark flat spot when comfortably beating KARABAK with FAIR ALONG back in fifth. Karabak was second in last season’s ‘Neptune’ but we have to go back to Karshi in 1997 to find the last World Hurdle winner that was at least placed in one of the two staying novice hurdles at the Festival the previous year

Five-year-olds traditionally struggle in all the longer races at the Festival and many a classy five-year-old has found this too great a test at this relatively early stage of their career, notably the traditionally-bred five-year-olds that do not peak as early as French-bred runners-up and no give-year-old has ever won the World Hurdle so I won’t be touching EBADIYAN. At the other end of the age spectrum, Inglis Drever defied the age stats when successful as a nine-year-old in 2008 but, prior to his victory, the previous 61 horses aged nine or older had tried and failed since Galmoy 20 years earlier and POWERSTATION and WAR OFF ATTRITION are not in the same class as the three-time winner of this race, Inglis Drever, over hurdles so they are also off my radar.

French-breds filled four of the first five placings last season and have won half of the eight runnings which is a plus for BIG BUCK’S, and KARABAK.

The last World Hurdle winner to contest the Champion Hurdle was Barry Hills’ Nomadic Way back in 1992 so KATCHIT and SENTRY DUTY would be unlikely winners. I also can’t have Irish horses as it has been 15 years since they last won so COUSIN VINNY, POWERSTATION, OSACR DAN DAN, WAR OF ATTRITION and EBADIYAN have a big job on.

Finally, let’s not forget what a strong race this has been for fancied horses of last as the first five in the betting have filled all 18 win-and-place positions in the last six runnings, positions that look like being filled by BIG BUCK’S, TIDAL BAY, KARABAK, KATCHIT and TIME FOR RUPERT though I can see money for FAIR ALONG given the stable form and ground turning in his favour.

SHORT LIST
BIG BUCK’S
TIME FOR RUPERT
TIDAL BAY

CONCLUSION
It’s very hard to get away from BIG BUCK’S on form and also on trends as he meets the key criterion in a race where trends aren’t that strong to be honest. Goodish ground shouldn’t be a problem, in fact it should show off his class better and it was noticeable on Tuesday it was the class horse of the race in Binocular and Sizing Europe that won the Champion Hurdle and Arkle Trophy that won as, whatever you may have thought of them beforehand, they were the horses with the most natural ability if they put it all together. I do like the Cleeve hurdle as a trial having supplied the last three winners and can see bug runs from the 1-2-3 that day though KATCHIT just misses out on a shortlist place as former Champion Hurdle runners do not have a good record in this race for a long time. TIDAL BAY and TIME FOR RUPERT do make the shortlist and there are grounds for believing the latter could reverse placings on better terms but, as I mentioned earlier, pure class tells on better ground so maybe not as Tidal Bay is top class on his day. I can also see FAIR ALONG run really well on better ground than when unplacing in the two key guides, especially with the yard in top form but can not really make out a serious case for anything else though POWERSTATION has placed three times at the Festival before and he has his ground too.

BYRNE GROUP PLATE
Mission Impossible I referred to this race in the Guide as the last ten winners had all started at a double-figure price so don’t be afraid to chance some outsiders. That said, French-breds carrying under 11st that posted a top-five finish last time out have won six of the last ten runnings and horses with that profile here are JAYO and, would you believe it, nothing else. Typical he should be Irish-trained however as their record in this race does not make good reading with just one winner since 1951 which suggests this simply isn’t a race that holds much resonance over there so it is not specifically targeted. I will take a chance though given he is the only qualifier on those three combined stats but I will oppose the other Irish runners IN COMPLIANCE, MADE IN TAIPAN and CHANGING COURSE.

Looking at the French-bred angle first, they posted a 1-2-3 last season and have won six of the last ten runnings which is a big stat considering they are outnumbered supplying around a third of the total runners and they are represented today with GWANAKO, CHAPOTURGEON, JAYO and TAROTINO.

I am going to go the weights argument over the ratings on this better ground as the classier horses have been winning on day one plus 1 3 of the last 15 winners have carried no more than 11st including last season’s 1-2-3. Therefore I can’t really have OUR VIC, GWANAKO, CHAPOTURGEON, IN COMPLIANCE, MADE IN TAIPAN or THE SAWYER.

Hard to say what will start favourite but the last nine have finished unplaced but I want to be against unplaced horses last time out as just two of those have won in the last 18 runnings which means 15 of these would be trendsbusters. I want to keep TAROTINO on my side though as he was eighth in a very hot handicap over an inadequate 2m that was basically just a prep for this.

As far as trainers as concerned not only did Something Wells give Venetia Williams back-to-back winners in this race last season but Ping Pong Sivola also gave her the second plus four of her previous eight runners had been placed so we have to seriously consider ATOUCHBETWEENACARA who bolted up by 24 lengths over this C/D last spring. Nicky Henderson’s MY PETRA is also well worth a second look having won the previous two renewals before Williams took over plus he recorded back-to-back wins in this handicap in the 1980s.

SHORT LIST
MY PETRA
SONG OF SONGS
(JAYO)
(TAROTINO)
(ATOUCHBETWEENACARA)

CONCLUSION
Nicky Henderson has won this race four times already and runs MY PETRA who was reported covered at the weekend so in Henderson’s words “will go like the wind!” She survives all the negative trends if we look at weights rather than ratings which is what I prefer to do on this good ground. JAYO fails the Irish stat and TAROTINO fails the last-time-out stat but both are French-breds which I like for the race and look to have been trained for it by their top-class stables so I want them in my short list, especially in a race where double-figure price winners have won the last ten runnings. Tarotino wouldn’t want any rain, the faster the ground the better whilst Jayo is the only French-bred carrying under 11st and was placed last time out like six of the last ten runnings. I am hoping Watch My Back remains favourite over SONG OF SONGS as prefer the latter who has been trained for a spring campaign as favourites have a dire record here. He didn’t quite stay in the Coral Cup two years ago but he is two years older and this is better ground. ATOUCHBETWEENACARA is attempting to give Venetia Williams a third win on the spin and gets the final vote for that reason even if he was pulled up last time but they employed front running tactics on soft ground on that occasion which is not him at all. He is crying out for this better ground and loves the course and distance. The novices SUNNYHILLBOY and VICTORIAS GROOM are respected but the former only runs here as was balloted out of the Jewson and unless there is a change McCoy prefers Song Of Songs.

FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE
We will start by overlooking the whippersnappers as just four of the last 30 winners were aged seven or younger which means that FALTERING FULLBACK, KHACHATURIAN, SAPHIR DES BOIS, GALANT NUIT, ISN’T THAT LUCKY and I’MONCLOUDNINE are up against it here.

Then I feel we should strike a line through the Irish as they haven’t won this race for 27 years so FINGER ONTHE PULSE, OODACHEE and FALTERING FULLBACK would be bucking a serious trend if successful though the former is starting to look scarily well handicapped again for a Jewson so I am tempted by him especially as he is now owned by J P McManus and the trainer has had Festival handicaps winners in the last two years.

With 15 of the last 16 horses to win or place officially rated between 122-131 and five of the last six winners could be located in the even-tighter ratings band of 124-128, ratings stats have been important. Looking at the latter band, that brings in only the bottom weight BURREN LEGEND so this is a much better renewal than most runnings so I don’t think we should be taking ratings too seriously from a trends perspective this time.

Do respect Robert and Sally Alner who run SHILLINGSTONE as two of their three runners have won the Kim Muir plus Ferdy Murphy who is responsible for GALANT NUIT as he has taken this handicap on two occasions.

SHORT LIST
SHILLINGSTONE
BOYCHUK
BALLABRIGGS
NOSTRINGSATTACHED
(FINGER ONTHE PULSE)

CONCLUSION
With two winners from three runners in this race you have to respect the record of the Alners and SHILLINGSTONE looks to have been trained for this since winning an amateur riders’ race at Newbury on Hennessy day. He prepped at Sandown the other day and their other two winners also used Sandown as part of their Kim Muir-winning preparations after the new year. He’ll do for me. BOYCHUK’s Cheltenham form reads: 1333536413 so has never run a bad race here, he bounces off fast ground and the Hobbs team are in great form so he looks very good each-way value to me if the rain keeps away having survived the negative trends. BALLABRIGGS also makes the shortlist as the yard won this three years ago and Richard Harding has also ridden the winner of this amateur race before so is an eye-catching booking. Higher weighted horses struggled up until last year when Character Building won also for the North and this better ground should suit the classier horses. Jonjo O’Neill runs four but ISN’T THAT LUCKY and SAPHIR DES BOIS are too young for me and KIA KAHA is on the small side for these fences so I prefer NOSTRINGSATTACHED of his runners who also survives the negative trends. I know the Irish have a bad record but FINGER ONTHE PULSE has dropped to just a 2lbs higher mark than when he beat Barbers Shop in the Jewson and McManus now owns him so you can be sure he has been laid out for the Festival. The trip is a niggle but decent ground will help in that respect.