Hunter Chase Betting Service (Festival Subscribers Only)

Thu, Mar 18, 2010

Christie’s Foxhunter Chase – Friday March 19th

Amicelli (GER) – Hero of this race in 2008 but only 20L fourth last season, but reversed form with Baby Run when successful at the April meeting. Handed a shock defeat by Briscoe Place on his comeback this season and then laboured to a short-head victory at Brocklesby, but on both occasions was ridden by Toby Greenall, and with Ollie back on board today significant improvement can be expected. Can make the odd blunder and will need to eradicate these if he is to have any chance of regaining his title.

Baby Run (FR) – Useful but lightly raced chaser in his youth, but reinvented as a top-class Hunter Chaser in ’09, leading two out and holding every chance before folding up the hill in this race last year. Produced consistently smart afterwards, notably taking the Champion Hunter Chase at Punchestown and finishing second to Southwestern over 3m4f at Stratford. Warmed up for this with an easy 11L win over Here’s Johnny (gave 8lbs) at Warwick and comes here with an exceptional chance, but the way his stamina gave out on the run-in last year does remain strong in the memory.

Bob Hall (IRE) – Runner-up to L’Antartique in the 2007 Jewson and generally sticks to trips around 2m4f, and his two Hunter Chase successes in ’09 were achieved over those sorts of trips. Finally proved his stamina for 3m when successful at Ludlow on his comeback, but a further two and a half furlongs around here is a different kettle of fish altogether. Owner/trainer landed this a few years ago with Drombeag, but a repeat success with this chap looks unlikely.

Burntoakboy – Tasted Festival success when landing the 2007 Coral Cup but has not been as good over fences; Pointing wins have only come in minor company and his recent Hunter Chase efforts (including a second to Gentle George) are well below the required standard necessary to feature here.

Cowboyboots (IRE) – Thorough stayer under Rules, with his last two wins coming over 3m4f at Fontwell, and wasn’t disgraced when finishing fourth over 4m at Cheltenham last year. In tremendous heart this season and supplemented his two Open wins with a success in a muddy renewal of the Walrus at Haydock. Has plenty of form on good ground and comes here with his confidence sky high, but basically an out-and-out stayer and may find things happening too quickly.

Drybrook Bedouin – Looked potentially high-class as a youngster but things didn’t really go to plan until last year, when he capped an ultra-consistent season with an ultra-game success in the Connolly’s Red Mills Final over this course and distance. Looked better than ever when going down by a narrow margin to a race fit Roulez Cool on his comeback, and then finshed a close third in a blanket finish to the Coronation Cup. Both of those efforts were at Larkhill, which wouldn’t necessarily be his ideal track; clearly acts well around here and as long as the ground does not firm up certainly arrives with a realistic each-way chance.

Dun Doire (IRE) – Won a thrilling renewal of the William Hill Chase here four years ago – his only appearance at Cheltenham – but has only won once since under Rules. As a familiar name he is sure to have his followers, especially with Nina Carberry on board, but the fact that it took him six attempts to gain the requisite two Open wins needed to qualify for this does suggest that he isn’t as good as he once was. However, can’t be completely ruled out.

Dusty Doolan (IRE) – Has only finished out of the first three twice in his last twelve outings and recent efforts include a 4L second to Kilty Storm in what is traditionally one of the strongest Hunter Chases in the Irish calendar, but his overall profile suggests he will come up short in this company.

Gentle George – Massive gelding who has been making giant strides (no pun intended) in Points and Hunter Chases, especially this season where he showed class to defeat Burntoakboy at unsuitable Huntingdon, and tenacity when winning at Newbury. Yet to race over this far but promises to stay, and arguably has more potential than anything else in this field. Because of his size, may not want the ground to become too quick, but if conditions are right he could produce a big run under last year’s successful rider.

Here’s Johnny (IRE) – Well beaten in two previous Festival outings, but a smart performer at his best (rated 142 at his peak), however has been beaten a minimum of 11L in his two Hunter Chase outings so far this season and nothing to suggest he can overturn recent Warwick form with Baby Run.

James Pine (IRE) – Won over 3m1f here at a massive price in 2008 but limitations exposed since then and easily scratched off the shortlist after a couple of ordinary Open efforts this term.

Kilty Storm (IRE) – Arrives here as arguably the leading Hunter Chaser in Ireland, having defeated Dun Doire in an Open Point and then going on to win a smart affair at Leopardstown, by 4L from Dusty Doolan. However, wouldn’t have been as good as many of these on earlier Rules form when trained by the Pipes (disappointed on good ground on his one previous Cheltenham outing) and all of his wins have been achieved on good/soft or much softer ground.

Le Duc (FR) – Frustrating but very useful on his day for Paul Nicholls and is making his seventh appearance at the Festival; outclassed the opposition in a Newton Abbot Hunter Chase in ’09 and after finishing 5L sixth in the Coronation Cup (behind Drybrook Bedouin and Southwestern) finally got off the mark for the season in a three finisher affair at Badbury Rings. Conditions should suit but probably not as good as he once was and connections have chosen the toughest race of all for young Jack Barber to be making his Rules debut in.

Man From Highworth – Has been a standing dish around Larkhill down the years but has had his limitations exposed in Hunter Chases and only barely gets three miles on the easiest of tracks; well held by several of these on recent form and with stamina likely to be at a premium it is not difficult to look elsewhere.

On The Net (IRE) – Fairly useful chaser in his younger days but has not raced under Rules since 2007. Has won three out of seven in Points this season, defeating Juveigneur in the process, but his overall profile seems to suggest that he has plenty to find in this company; has yet to prove his stamina over this trip under Rules (almost exclusively raced at up to 2m4f in the past).

Reach For The Top (IRE) – Disappointing type for Henrietta Knight under Rules up to 2007 but has since proved himself to be an above average Pointer; earned his place in this line-up when beating subsequent Hunter Chase winner Penny Doc at Detling, but stamina is not his strong point and he comes up short on form in any case.

Robbers Glen (IRE) – High-class Pointer/Hunter Chaser who goes tremendously well for his veteran lady owner/rider, and there would be no more popular winner; has an excellent chance on overall form but it is doubtful as to whether Val will be competitive enough to be able to figure in the closing stages (kept wide and in rear throughout in this last year before staying on extremely well to finish 25L fifth). Looked fortunate when winning at Kelso last time out and the percentage call is to oppose in the top company.

Roulez Cool – Home-bred son of a classy mare and won a Listed race in France before arriving on these shores; officially rated 148 after winning at Bangor (extended 3m) and finishing second at Uttoxeter in ’09. Achieved qualification for this when winning at Chaddesley (easily) and Larkhill (narrowly from Drybrook Bedouin) but it is noticeable that they were both achieved on courses where stamina is not at a premium. Clearly the pick on figures but still unsure as to whether 3m2.5f around here will suit, and the recent minor setback sets further alarm bells ringing.

Southwestern (IRE) – Tough and genuine hold up performer who could easily have won two Champion Hunter Chases at Punchestown but for falling in the closing stages on both occasions; it all finally came right last May when he won the 3m4f Horse & Hound Cup at Stratford, beating Baby Run, Take The Stand, Robbers Glen and Amicelli amongst others. Seemingly not in the best of form and arguably affected by an earlier fall when finishing only second at 1-4 last time out at Bishops Court, but that was in a farcical affair run at a crawl. Fifth and sixth in the last two renewals of this race would suggest he has something to find, but this is a very open year and if Neil Harris can avoid going for home until the last minute he certainly wouldn’t be without a chance.

Take The Stand (IRE) – Second to Kicking King in the 2005 Gold Cup and has been a fine servant down the years but signs last season that age was catching up with him and even his best form in this sphere probably wouldn’t be good enough. Needed the race when well behind Robbers Glen on his comeback but slipped up at Ffos Las next time, which is hardly the ideal preparation.

Trust Fund (IRE) – Has the highest Mackenzie & Harris rating of any of these, following wins in ’09 at Chepstow (3m5f), the 2m6f Aintree Fox Hunters, and over this course and distance (narrowly from Take The Stand) in May, but finished lame after the latest and has not been seen since. Represents top connections and last year’s Champion Point-to-Point rider and has a clear form chance, but well-being has to be taken on trust and you would have to go back a long way to find a Foxhunters winner that won on their seasonal debut.

Turthen (FR) – Useful but not straightforward for Paul Nicholls as a youngster but a reformed character for this yard and suffered his only defeat in ’09 when finishing a heroic second to Cappa Bleu in this very race. Suffered a shock defeat to Theatre Diva (balloted out of this race) on his comeback but regained winning ways in imperious fashion and in a very fast time at Milborne St Andrew next time out. Others may find a bit more up the hill, but his form is very difficult to crab and he looks sure to give another good account.

Chesnut Annie (IRE) – A living legend in Welsh Point-to-Points and landed a ten-timer in that sphere last season. Returned in similar fashion on her seasonal return and then exceeded every expectation when destroying a decent field from the front at Ffos Las where she was allowed to get into a good rhythm right from the outset. Is sure to have her supporters but it is very doubtful as to whether she will get such an easy lead this time around, and Cheltenham may not be her track.

Sericina (FR) – Very progressive type who has produced some exceptional efforts this season, notably when winning a Buckfastleigh Open easily from Joaaci (dual winner since) and a Taunton Hunter Chase in which she won easily from the useful Whizzaar (albeit receiving 19lbs). Has an outstanding turn of foot and well worth her place in the line-up, but lacks experience of this type of race and her style of jumping (low and quick) may not be suited to these stiff fences.

Conclusion – One of the most open renewals in recent years. Roulez Cool is the pick on official figures but there is no way he should be as short as 3-1 purely on Pointing form, and the combination of his recent setback and doubts as to whether he will get up the hill makes him well worth opposing. If he is 3-1, there is no way DRYBROOK BEDOUIN, who he narrowly beat at Larkhill when having a fitness advantage, should be 25-1+ and last year’s Red Mills winner looks to have an excellent each-way chance, with no stamina doubts on his part. Last year’s second and third Baby Run and TURTHEN are equally matched on last year’s evidence and both have similar chances again, but with the two at 6-1 and 20-1 respectively there is little doubt as to where the value lies there. SOUTHWESTERN is a regular in this grade and if everything falls right could be a major player, while GENTLE GEORGE has arguably more potential than anything in the field. Trust Fund has a fitness disadvantage and arrives here from an injury-enforced layoff, while the Irish raiders on a whole do not look good enough.