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FRIDAY, MATCH 19^TH

TRIUMPH HURDLE
To be honest this is a race overloaded with stats and you can get into a right twist following them all so it’s a case of concentrating on the stronger ones and since the introduction of the ‘Fred Winter’, four of the five winners won last time out, were rated 80+ on the Flat and contested races over 1m4f+, had won at least twice over hurdles and started in the first four in the betting. This year only ALAIVAN meets all that criterion so he will be the number one pick.

Of the last 16 winners only two failed to pass the line in front on their most recent start so that is usually my first port of call and therefore I have to pass over BARIZAN, BARWELL BRIDGE, BOB’S ISLAND, INVESTISSEMNT, PITTONI, PUZZLEMASTER, RUPESTRIAN, WESTLIN’ WINDS, BLUE NYMPH and PEBBLE IN A POOL.

Flat-race class is becoming increasingly important now that the Triumph Hurdle has become a true championship race in the years since the ‘Fred Winter’ took away the more optimistic runners. Only one of the last 12 runners was rated lower than 80 on the Flat which is a negative for ADVISOR, WESTLIN’ WINDS and CARLITO BRIGANTE amongst the major players. What I would say however is that this is generally considered the worst Triumph Hurdle for many years so whether the Flat-class stats will stand up as well is debateable.

The last 12 winners which had run on the Flat had all raced over at least 1m4f which is no coincidence as two miles and a furlong around Cheltenham for a horse that has not long just turned four is a mighty stamina test at the pace they go in the Triumph Hurdle so, if there are any doubts whatsoever surrounding your fancy’s ability to get every single yard, I don’t want to be on it. The only horse to run on the Flat that did not run over at least 12f is BARIZAN.

The three trainers with the best records are Alan King with two winners, two seconds and third in recent season who runs GILDED AGE who only runs here as he was balloted out of the Fred Winter but was well fancied for that race by the stable, Nicky Henderson, who has won this race four times all told and runs SOLDATINO and Willie Mullins who has supplied a winner, second and two thirds from 11 runners and will be represented by SECANT STAR.

The Irish look strong this season and must have a great chance of notching up their first winner since 2002, since when they have only had four placed runners. I am not sure I am want to oppose them solely on that stat in this poor year and they have ALAIVAN, SECANT STAR, PITTONI, CARLITO BRIGANTE and PEBBLE IN A POOL gunning for them with realistic chances.

With 15 of the last 17 winners having their final prep run in February, sure that is where we should be focussing? However, not so fast, as the last two winners were the pair to spoil that stat so I would rather keep it confining bets to horses that had run in the seven weeks like all of the last 17 winners so ADVISOR, OLOFI, BARIZAN, RUPESTRIAN and SECANT STAR would be unusual winners if successful

Since 1989, only three winners had not raced at least three times over hurdles and two of those were trained by Nicky Henderson. In fact, three of Henderson’s four Triumph Hurdle winners had run less than three times over timber so I feel we should not include SOLDATINO for this argument but there has to be a case to give lightly-raced hurdlers such as INVESTISSEMNT, BOB’S LEGEND and ADVISOR a wide berth. All but two winners had also won at least twice over hurdles which is a stat SOLDATINO fails as do BARWELL BRIDGE, BOB’S LEGEND, GILDED AGE, PUZZLEMASTER, TROUBLETIMESTWO, BLUE NYMPH and PEBBLE IN A POOL.

Two races stand out having signposting three of the last ten Triumph Hurdle winners apiece, they being the Adonis Hurdle won by SOLDATINO and the Grade 2 event run at The Open Meeting here in November in which BARIZAN was second and OLOFI was third.

Finally, not only have 11 of the last winners 16 started in the first four in the betting but, even more importantly, so have all five winners since the introduction of the ‘Fred Winter’ to the Festival register which has cleared the way for the championship-standard four-year-olds to fight it out and those both positions look set to be filled by ALAIVAN, CARLITO BRIGANTE, SOLDATINO and ADVISOR.

SHORT LIST
ALAIVAN
(SOLDATINO)
(CARLITO BRIGANTE)
(PITTONI)

CONCLUSION
As highlighted in the opening line ALAIVAN is the only horse to hit all the important stats on the head so he is the most likely winners on trends. Impressive when held up last time as opposed to be being when he tried to lead on his previous start, that looks the key to him and a big run should be expected. SOLDATINO may not have won twice on hurdles but he fits plenty of other stats being a last time out winner having also won the best guide, his trainer has won this race four times already and he looks like he will start in the first four in the betting. The only statistic that CARLITO BRIGANTE fails is being rated less than 80 on the Flat but as this is the poorest Triumph in years, Flat race class may not be as important. Nothing than that her has done little wrong and is arguably the form horse of the race on his comprehensive defeat of Alaivan in a Grade 1 race at Leopardstown at Christmas. PITTONI also fails on one stat when beaten last time out but has a decent profile otherwise and I was really impressed with his last two runs including in traditionally Ireland’s best guide on Irish Hennessy day and clearly something was wrong last time as he was described as “clinically abnormal” afterwards. 

VINCENT O’BRIEN COUNTY HURDLE
Arguably the best angle is that five-year-olds officially rated between 128-135 have won three of the last five runnings so qualifiers on that front are SECRET DANCER, INVENTOR and TARKARI.

Looking at the five-year-olds, to have won seven of the last 11 runnings is some going given they have been responsible for just one-fifth of the total runners since 1998 so we have to be looking very closely at the likes of SECRET DANCER, INVENTOR, TARKARI, TITO BUSTILLO, ANY GIVEN DAY and ROCK NOIR are particularly interesting.

As indeed are the Irish who have won three of the last seven runnings and there was noticeably less whingeing surrounding the handicap marks for this season’s Festival. I think the handicapper may have been harsh on them last season but has remedied that this time around and their representatives this season are BAHRAIN STORM, TAWAGG, NOBLE PRINCE, THOUSAND STARS and TARKARI.

If you fancy the top weight ROCK NOIR or MARODIMA, I would seriously think again as no County Hurdle winner has carried more than 11st 8lbs for 50 years. The last five winners were all officially rated between 128-135 which this year brings in 13 horses from DEE EE WILLIAMS downwards.

One very notable aspect I took from last season’s Festival was how fabulously well novices fared in the handicaps and they have won five of the last 16 runnings of this particular race and are represented this time by INVENTOR, PUYOL, SECRET DANCER, TITO BUSTILLO, ANY GIVEN DAY and BELLVANO.

Given that four of the last six winners contested the Totesport Trophy at Newbury, runners from this season’s race need to be looked at closely especially as the winner almost won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on Tuesday. ANY GIVEN DAY was the real eyecatcher in sixth and other runners were OLRDIK (5^th) who has since finished second for his in-form yard in the Imperial Cup, SONGE (11^th), MUTUAL FRIEND (15^th) and FUSHE JO (16^th). Ireland’s equivalent to the Totesport Trophy is the MCR Hurdle so it is no surprise that two of the four most-recent County Hurdle winners ran fine races in that contest and the race is represented by the winner PUYOL, TAWAAGG (2^nd), TARKARI (4^th) and THOUSAND STARS (14^th).

Stretching back 22 years, over half the winners either won or finished second on their most-recent outing which is a plus for ROCK NOIR, MARODIMA, BELLVANO, PUYOL, ERDAICATE, INVENTO, GLOUCESTER, OLDRIK and TARKARI and I would be against horses coming off a light preparation as just one winner in the last 16 runnings had not run at least four times in the same season which means that ROCK NOIR, BELLVANO, TAWAAGG, SECRET DANCER, INVENTOR, ARCALIS and GLOUCESTER have that pattern to overcome

To win any fiercely-competitive handicap hurdle a couple of times in the space of a few years takes some doing so for Paul Nicholls to have trained three of the last six winners plus a close-up second in the last six years is a fantastic achievement and why TITO BUSTILLO is favourite.

SHORT LIST
TARKARI
(INVENTOR)
(ANY GIVEN DAY)
(TITO BUSTILLO)
(SECRET DANCER)

CONCLUSION
The bottom weight TARKARI comes out best on trends being a last-time-out winner from an Irish yard that ran well in a key guide in the MCR Hurdle and he is a five-year-old that also fits the ratings stats so what more could you want really? INVENTOR only falls down on not having run four times or more this season otherwise he also has a close to an ideal profile and I rate him and his stablemate ANY GIVEN DAY as the best of the novices. The latter ran an eyecatcher and a half when sixth in the competitive Totesport Trophy and that race has already received two massive boosts in the last five days. I also like the fact he is a five-year-old as they have a very good record in the race. TITO BUSTILLO is another five-year-old novice and has trainer has won this race three times in the last six years and it should have really been four so he has to go on the short list and the final berth goes to SECRET DANCER who was third in Grade 2 novice hurdle here in November as was last year’s winner of this race. He may not have finished in the first two last time out but he meets the five-year-old rated between 128-135 stat so I want him in here and he could be a bigger price than his form entitles hailing from an unfashionable yard. Many others meeting a number of the trends but I would say this quintet just edge it.

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
Just five years to work off but three of the last four winners had won at Cheltenham before which a positive for two-time course winner TELL MASSINI and RESTLESS HARRY who won here this season plus SHINROCK PADDY and CAPPA BLEU who were course winners last season. The races that Tell Massini and Restless Harry won have also been the most influential. The Hyde Novices’ Hurdle is often the first big marker for the ‘Albert Bartlett’ and was won in fine style Tell Massini who made full use of his stamina to make all the running to outstay Reve De Sivola and that form looks strong after Wednesday’s ‘Neptune’ when he was a fine second. He then went on to win the Bristol Novices’ Hurdle but the four previous winners ran well here with all finishing in the first four with two winning. The Classic Novices’ Hurdle is a third novices’ hurdle that takes place at Cheltenham earlier in the season to highlight more than winner being responsible for two winners and was won by Restless Harry.

The key Irish race as a guide in the last two seasons has proven proved to be the Grade 2 Synergy Securty Services Novices’ Hurdle at Leopardstown in late-January over 2m4f and this season’s running witnessed a big shock as the 30/100 favourite QUEL ESPRIT was beaten and he may well take his chance after taking an early tumble in the ‘Neptune’ on Wednesday. The only time I can personally recall a horse winning at the Festival after running earlier in the meeting was Sound Reveille who fell in the Arkle and then won the Cathcart. The Barry and Sandra Kelly Memorial Novices’ Hurdle over 2m4f at Navan in December won this season by 15 lengths by SHINROCK PADDY is the other key Irish guide.

It is often the case that improvement is garnered for a step up in distance for the first time but you are taking a risk if that is your line of thinking for this race as 12 of the 15 win-and-place positions so far had already run over three miles which ARVIKA LIGEONNAIRE, BOSTONS ANGEL, ENTERPRISE PARK, FIONNEGAS, NAJAF, RESTLESS HARRY and THE BETCHWORTH KID have not tried as yet   

Already the signs are there that this will turn out to be a punter’s race with all five winners proving very findable being sent off at single-figure odds and in the first five in the betting, positions that look like being filled by TELL MASSINI, ENTERPRISE PARK, QUEL ESPRIT (if he runs), RESTLESS HARRY and SHINROCK PADDY. Eleven of the 15 win-and-place positions were also filled by horses sent off at under 10/1.

ENTERPRISE PARK, ARVIKA LIGEONNAIRE and QUEL ESPRIT represent Willie Mullins. His Black Harry was booked for second three years ago until falling at the final flight and The Midnight Club was only beaten 2½ lengths in third last season. Alan King runs THE MIDNIGHT CLUB and has had a winner and a third at 100/1 to date.

As you would expect for a race that has seen a horse in the first five in the betting win all four runnings, all winners either won or finished second on their most recent start so BERTIES DREAM, KENNEL HILL, POSSOL, QUEL ESPRIT and THE BETCHWORTH KID are not for me. Given the gruelling nature of the race, horses lacking experience have to be at a disadvantage and all five winners had raced at least three times over timber which is against CHARTREUX and ENETERPRISE PARK. I am not sure I want to rule out Enterprise Park on that stat though as most of Willie Mullins’ novice hurdles at the Festival had less than three hurdling starts as that is his way.

SHORT LIST
TELL MASSINI
SHINROCK PADDY
CAPPA BLEU
(ENTERPRISE PARK)

CONCLUSION
TELL MASSINI is the obvious trends horse having won two of the most significant trials, both over this course, and has proven himself over three miles. His form was also franked by Reve De Sivola on Wednesday. As long as the ground doesn’t dry out any more, he has a favourite’s chance and can gallop his rivals into the ground. SHINROCK PADDY is a course winner, a last time out winner, a Grade 1 winner and has won over three miles in a point to point so he could prove to be the best of the Irish on trends. CAPPA BLEU is interesting as they were taking Gold Cup with him on this day last season after he won the Foxhunters’ but he has not gone on since then over fences hence the switch back to hurdles. He stays for sure and has solid course form so could be an interesting one at double-figure prices. ENTERPRISE PARK could be the best of the Mullins trio but the surprise late inclusion of QUEL ESPRIT confuses matters. He has yet to run over three miles and only ran twice but I like the trainer’s record in the race and he shaped like a stayer so I am not at all bothered about the trip.

TOTESPORT CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP
We will deal with the 10-year-old stat first as that covers the big two of KAUTO STAR and DENMAN as only COOL DAWN has not been aged between 7 and 9 in the last 17 years. On stats they should therefore go but I do take a view true champions can overcome these kind of age stats as age stats as Inglis Drever and Moscow Flyer have proven in recent years as true champions tend to find a way of overcoming negative patterns and this pair can certainly be bracketed in the true champions category. Lesser mortals aged 10+ can go however so I will be against MON MOME, MR POINTMENT and MY WILL.

Actually, the Gold Cup has been a race in which second-season chasers have a tremendous record winning over half the runnings since 1990 so take a note of COOLDINE, TRICKY TRICKSTER, CARRUTHERS and CALGARY BAY who are their representatives this time around.

A fairly basic requirement you would have thought is to have previously won a Grade 1 race as this is the Gold Cup after all and is a something the last ten winners had all achieved whis is against three of those second-season chasers – CARRUTHERS, CALGARY BAY and TRICKY TRICKSTER.

Of the last dozen Gold Cup winners, only Kauto Star and See More Business had not won or finished placed at the Festival before and they were unlucky/unfortunate not to also qualify having fallen when favourite for the Champion Chase and carried out in the Gold Cup respectively. This is not good news for everything bar KAUTO STAR, DENMAN, IMPERIAL COMMANDER, MY WILL and COOLDINE.

Clearly the fact that the last 11 Gold Cup winners had all won earlier in the season is of high significance which is something that COOLDINE, CERIUM, IMPERIAL COMMANDER, MON MOME, MR POINTMENT and MY WILL have yet to manage but, arguably of even more emphasis given that most of the field will have visited the winner’s enclosure at some point during the current campaign is that just three of the last 14 winners had failed to win at least half of their outings this season which only concerns.

During the last ten years all Gold Cup winners could be found in the first three in the betting and there is no other race at the meeting that can claim that distinction so it is a question of whether COOLDINE or IMPERIAL COMMANDER will join KAUTO STAR and DENMAN in the skirmishes leading up to the event.

The King George VI Chase has been by far and away the best guide of the last decade with seven Gold Cup winners taking their chance in the Christmas highlight (no other race in the same season has thrown up more than two Gold Cup winners) with four of the last seven winners completing the King George-Gold Cup double which can only be a massive positive for KAUTO STAR. That said, two recent Gold Cup winners in Looks Like Trouble and See More Business totally bombed in the King George before coming on to win here which is also what IMPERIAL COMMANDER did in this season’s race after an early mistake.

Last season’s renewal has been the second-best guide of late with four winners having taken part 12 months earlier in the last decade so another plus for KAUTO STAR who beaten DENMAN 16 lengths in last year’s race with MY WILL back in fifth. Six Gold Cup winners since 1980 ran in the previous season’s RSA Chase including the winner of two of the last nine runnings so COOLDINE hits a positive there. CARRUTHERS also contested last season’s race finishing fourth. Cooldine will also bid to give the Irish their third winner in six years.

Unlike the Champion Hurdle where a run during the same calendar year has been the case for the last 16 winners, six of the last eight Gold Cup winners did not run during the same calendar year. Maybe it’s a trip thing as Gold Cup horses run over longer distance so trainers like to preserve them better. Anyway, qualifiers are KAUTO STAR, IMPERIAL COMMANDER, MY WILL and CALGARY BAY as we are not counting the joke Paul Murphy trained runners.

Tom Dreaper currently holds the record as the winning-most trainer in Gold Cup history with five victories but Paul Nicholls will join him if KAUTO STAR, ENMAN, TRICKY TRICKSTER or MY WILL.  As far as ratings concerned, 8 of the last 9 winners were officially rated 166+ and only KAUTO STAR, DENMAN and IMPERIAL COMMANDER qualify here.

SHORT LIST
(KAUTO STAR)
(COOLDINE)

CONCLUSION
No horse fits the ideal pattern but KAUTO STAR fits them all bar being a ten-year-old but, on the evidence of his last run, he is getting better at the age of ten rather than regressing. Otherwise he meets everything else winning the best guide, being one of only three to meet the ratings stats, being a Grade 1 winner (many times over) and boasting at least a 50% strike rate this season (actually 100%). I really don’t see much of a threat from him except maybe from COOLDINE. I do like the RSA Chase winner for this race and they have won it twice recently and also like the fact he is a second season chaser as they have won half the runnings since 1990. He hasn’t won this season which is the main stat against him (also not rated 166+) but he has been brought along steadily for one day. He looks the each-way bet of the race to me. DENMAN is showing signs of regressing for me at the age of ten even though he won the Hennessy but I feel that race may have taken more out of him than we thought. IMPERIAL COMMANDER and TRICKY TRICKSTER are surely the only other players but like Cooldine, Imperial Commander has yet to win this season and Tricky Trickster is rated an incredible 3 stones behind Kauto Star on official ratings so there will be a Stewards’ Enquiry if he wins! 

CHRISTIES’ FOXHUNTER CHASE
I used to be massive on last-time-out winners in the Foxhunters’ given that they had been responsible for 14 of the 15 winners between 1986-2000 but four winners since the millennium were beaten on their previous start which cooled my enthusiasm for simply having to support such a contender. However, normal service appears to have resumed as last season’s 1-2-3 were last-time-out winners and they also totally dominated in 2009 being responsible for no less than seven of the first eight home so I will make this my starting point and only consider AMICELLI, BABY RUN, COWBOYBOOTS, DUN DOIRE, GENTLE GEORGE, KILTY STORM, LE DUC, ON THE NET, REACH FOR THE TOP, ROBBERS GLEN, ROULEZ COOL, TRUST FUND, TURTHEN, CHESNUT ANNIE and SERICENA. That doesn’t help much does it as all the leading fancies are in there?

As much as I respect TRUST FUND who is lightly-raced for a 12-year-old, I do like horses aged ten and younger in the Foxhunters’ as it is hard to argue with a stat like providing 17 of the last 19 winners from around half the runners. Therefore I will be against AMICELLI, DUN DOIRE, DUSTY DOOLAN, HERE’S JOHNNY, JAMES PINE, KILTY STORM, LE DUC, MAN FROM HIGHWORTH, SOUTHWESTERN and TAKE THE STAND but prefer to keep Trust Fund on side given he has only run 22 times in his life and most horses of his age would be around the 50 mark so he doesn’t have the miles on the clock.

Cappa Bleu became the first Foxhunters’ winner since Rushing Wild in 1992 to win on its debut under Rules but this was a renewal chock-a-block with ageing ex-handicappers past their sell-by date to the fore in the market in a bad year so I will keep on opposing them which means DUN DOIRE, TURTHEN, TAKE THE STAND. LE DUC, BURNTOAKBOY, AMICELLI and BOB HALL. More interesting is ROULEZ COOL as he was handicapping before he came to pointing but he came from France so am happy to leaven him in as he wasn’t a grizzled old handicapper, in fact, he only ran twice.

Finally, working out what could lead after a circuit could be lucrative as five of the last 14 winners made virtually all the running. CHESNUT ANNIE was very impressive making all last time.

SHORT LIST
GENTLE GEORGE
CHESNUT ANNIE
SERICENA
(TRUST FUND)

CONCLUSION
The combination of following a last-time-out winner aged under 11 that started life in the point-to-field has been the way to go in a big way in the last 20 years and Gentle George, Chesnut Annie and Sericena fit that profile. GENTLE GEORGE has the assistance of top amateur Richard Burton who won this race on Cappa Bleu 23 months ago and I like the fact he is only seven as I feel the younger the better in this race. CHESNUT ANNIE was visually the most impressive hunter I have seen this season when winning at Ffos Las where she made all and if she can lead again, looking at how well the front runners fare in this race she is most interesting. SERICENA is another mare and pushes Chesnut Annie close for me in terms of most impressive hunting chasing performance of the season so far and she is also just a seven-year-old and very exciting. I have a lot of time for ROULEZ COOL (not brought up through pointing ranks) and TRUST FUND (12yo) but they don’t quite the profile though I do feel the latter is very solid each-way for Richard Barber who has trained no less than four Foxhunters’ winners and he is the second best horse on ratings and already won a big hunter chase taking the Aintree version did last year and Cavalero won that race before coming on to win here.

MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP HURDLE
This is just the second running so no real trends so I shall keep this very brief. Just 10lbs cover top weight to bottom weight so this could be a case of just find the best horse!

As I send this copy we have had two handicap hurdles at the Festival and although the Coral Cup winner defied the stats in not winning last time out, the 1-2 in the Fred Winter were last time out winners in common with over 50% of all handicap hurdle winners at the Festival over the last 15 Festivals from approximately 20% representation so I am going to concentrate on horses that won last time out and they are PEVERIL, ON BORROWED WINGS, BALZACCIO, CLOVA ISLAND, QUENTIN COLLONGES and MEATH ALL STAR.

It didn’t happen for David Pipe in this race last year but, of course, we have to respect him for obvious reasons and he runs ASHKAZAR and that’s it compared to seven last year so he is in the short list. As Henderson won the inaugural running and he admitted afterwards he fancied him even if he was 25/1, we should look at his runners which are PEEVRIL, LORD GENEROUS, FAIRYLAND and RADIUM.

SHORT LIST
PEVERIL
ASHKAZAR
MEATH ALL STAR
RADIUM
CLOVA ISLAND

CONCLUSION
As PEVERIL is a last-time-out winner which I love so much for the Festival handicap hurdles and trained by last year’s winning handler, he is gets in as does ASHKAZAR being David Pipe’s only runner. Either the horse has totally gone or they done a great job to get his mark down to just 136 from 156 having been a Champion Hurdle fancy last season. MEATH ALL STAR is my favoured Irish horse as he won last time out and looked so good at Ffos Las two runs back and I also want to have RADIUM on my side. He failed to fire last time but returned lame and was previously impressive on this track as was last year’s winner for the same yard. As the Hobbs hurdlers are flying and he is a last time out winner CLOVA ISLAND makes up my shortlist of five.

JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL HANDICAP CHASE
With the quality in the handicaps increasing again this season I do feel the weights stats are highly vulnerable so I would much rather concentrate on official ratings stats rather than weight carried and as there has been no Grand Annual winner rated higher than 143 since 1997. This would be against the top eight in the weights FRENCH OPERA, FREE WORLD, CORNAS, TARTAK, OISEAU DE NUIT, LORD HENRY, CONSIGLIERE and TATANIANO.

Horses officially rated between 129-134 have paid out exacta dividends on six occasions in the last nine renewals so that is where I am most interested and includes SUNNYHILLBOY, NIKOLA, SAFARI JOURNEY, RUSSIAN FLAG, CALATAGAN, FIGHTING CHANCE and PIGEON ISLAND.

I have very little time for horses ages in double figures in this race as we have to go back to 1997 to locate the last winner and 38 of the last 44 win-and-placed runners were aged under ten so LORD HENRY, LENNON, TRAMANTANO, CALATAGAN and FIGHTING CHANCE are immediately off my radar.

Only five winners failed to place on their previous outing since 1970, two fell and another was having its seasonal debut over hurdles a couple of weeks earlier so it can be argued that just two of the last 39 winners had something to prove in terms of their form entering the race so CORNAS, TARTAK, LENNON, MOON OVER MIAMI, PEPSYROCK, TRAMANTANO, PEPSYROCK, LEOS LUCKY STAR, CALATAGAN and PIGEON ISLAND would be breaking a strong stat if successful.

I do love a novice for the big 2m handicap chases in the spring and they have come out on top here on ten occasions in the last 28 runnings including last season. They are well represented this year to extend that sequence with GREEN BELT ELITE, TATANIANO, NOMECHEKI, YOU’RE THE TOP, SAFARI JOURNEY and PIGEON ISLAND.

We also have to respect Nicky Henderson who is represented by FRENCH OPERA, YOU’RE THE TOP and PEPSYROCK and Paul Nicholls who lets FREE WORLD and TATANIANO take their chance. I can’t believe the Irish have nothing. The Grand Annual commemorates Johnny Henderson, father of Nicky, and in addition to Greenhope winning for him, he has saddled four others to finish in the first four since that commemoration. The Paul Nicholls stable has remarkably been responsible for sending out the favourite in five of the last six seasons and has twice supplied the winner in that time whilst the Irish have won an impressive four of the last ten winners.

Finally, just five of the last 35 winners started any bigger than 10/1 but as I write it is 9/1 the field!!!  

SHORT LIST 
YOU’RE THE TOP
SAFARI JOURNEY
GREEN BELT ELITE
NOMECHEKI

CONCLUSION
I do like an in-form novice for this race so GREEN BELT ELITE makes the shortlist although he is higher rated than most winning novices in this race but the quality of the race this year is higher. Venetia Williams has already won this with a novice before in Samakaan. SAFARI JOURNEY is another novice and represents an in-form yard but he does meet the ratings stats so is very interesting especially after a 97-day break as he wants decent ground. I suspect SUNNYHILLBOY will only run if he falls early in the Plate so will leave him out though he fits the patterns but a third novice I really like is YOU’RE THE TOP and especially as this is a race Henderson has a fine record in notably since it commemorated his father and it looks significant Barry Geraghty rides him rather than FRENCH OPERA who has been virtually favourite since the betting opened on the race. RUSSIAN FLAG and NIKOLA came close to a spot on the short list on ratings stats but neither convince me so the final slot goes to another novice in NOMECHEKI who has been trained for this race for a long time and has loads of speed so will appreciate dropping back from 2m5f in heavy ground back to two miles.

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