bettrends.co.uk

JOHN SMITH’S MIDLANDS GRAND NATIONAL – Uttoxeter, March 20th 2010

Although perhaps not the most glamorous of races we have some old favourites lining up once again and the trends appear to have thrown up a real contender.

With the race taking place over 4m+ it follows that we shouldn’t be taking any chances on stamina. Throw into the mix anything saddled with less than 11st on its back, preferably trained in Ireland, who is a competent jumper and who ran well last time out and we have the winner. Easy!

SHORTLIST
INOMA JAMES
(BALLYDUB)
(SHERWOODS FOLLY)

CONCLUSION
INOMA JAMES is about as good as it gets for this race. An Irish trained raider who was successful last time, is proven over 3m 2f+, set to carry 10st 7lbs and has never fallen or unseated in his career to date. His latest efforts have all been run on pretty testing ground so conditions may be a tad quicker than ideal but he looks thoroughly progressive and the manner of his latest success at Punchestown suggests he is the one to beat. Some rain wouldn’t go amiss though.

The form of the Philip Hobbs yard this week means BALLYDUB needs considering regardless. That said the only thing that isn’t in his favour is that he’s not Irish trained but that is more than cancelled out by the stable he is representing. Seven-year-olds have a decent record in the race (4-1-17) and he ran well to finish third on his last start. He stayed on well at Doncaster that day, indicating that he was worth trying over an extreme trip, and he’s lightly raced enough to think we haven’t seen the best of him yet. First time blinkers are an interesting move too.

The final spot on the shortlist goes to SHERWOODS FOLLY who was last seen finishing third in testing conditions at Haydock. Prior to that he was a good winner at Cheltenham and if reproducing that effort shouldn’t be far away despite a 7lbs higher mark. He’s only fallen once in his career and is nicely towards the foot of the handicap which can only be of benefit both in terms of the trends and from a logical point of view.

As for the others? Well, both LE BEAU BAI and SYNCHRONISED are technically out of it due to carrying 11st plus. However, with the ground currently good it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see those toward the top of the weights outperforming the trends. Something to bear in mind.