Paul Jones Midweek Ante Post Service – 24th Mar 10

Wed, Mar 24, 2010

There is no major Jump’s race to analyse ahead of this weekend’s action so I have gone through the Grand National for the first time since the weights were published (and the latest forfeit stage was yesterday) and want to add a second bet in the race in addition to Arbor Supreme who I suggested we supported at 33/1 (ew) earlier in the season since when he has enhanced his claims with a very good second after the weights were published on ground too soft and over an inadequate trip. My hopes are that McCoy will ride him of the McManus quintet and then his odds will tumble further.

TODAY’S ANTE-POST ADVICE:
State Of Play (ew) (Grand National) – Best prices: 25/1 Totesport, Victor Chandler, Stan James, Ladbrokes, William Hill; 20/1 Skybet, Betfred, SportingBet, Coral, Extrabet

Much what will follow will appear in the Aintree and Punchestowns Festival Betting Guide ante-post preview. I was going to suggest Niche Market as a bet today as I advised him as the main bet in that Guide when I wrote the Grand National ante-post copy preview which went to press on Monday as he was 25s in a couple of places and there was generally 20s around but his price has contracted in the last two days to 20s with just two firms that are also not high street firms so are not easy to go on with and 16s everywhere else so I feel the value has dried up since and reckon we can get 16s on the day so what is the point of backing him now? I will wait until the day to back him and instead have a few quid ante-post each-way on STATE OF PLAY at 25/1 which is available with five firms.

The weights are so compressed for this season’s Grand National that it looks more competitive than ever and the 11st+ weight barrier is under serious threat but I have not been bothered about that threshold for many years now much preferring 11st 5lbs as the cut-off as only Red Rum has won with more on his back in the last 50 years.

Niche Market currently has 11st 4lbs and Bob Buckler’s charge doesn’t know how to run a bad race and he ran well again for a long way in the William Hill Trophy at the Festival (I was amazed to read today that Tom Segal felt he didn’t run well) but he will be in his element in this race being a prominent racer than loves decent ground who is a bold jumper. Throw in the fact he won the best recent guide which was last season’s Irish National and he also finished a fine third in the Hennessy behind Denman and a subsequent Grade 1 winner in What A Friend, which is the race that has featured more Grand National winners than any other contest in the last 30 years and I would be very hopeful of a big run. It can also easily be argued he should have won the AON Chase when Tricky Trickster just got his head in front on the line as Andrew Glassonbury kicked on as soon as Denman made his first bad mistake to take advantage of that error but that seemingly sensible move at the time probably cost him the race by attacking so early in the home straight. At a top price of 25/1 on Monday he was good value but now he looks nearer his correct price hence the switch for ante-post purposes to State Of Play but I will be backing Niche Market on the day.

Ruby Walsh has an interesting choice to make between Big Fella Thanks and Tricky Trickster and I would prefer Big Fella Thanks as he ran a blinder in retrospect to finish sixth as a mere seven-year-old novice in last season’s race and is now is a year older and has course experience to boot. It has been 70 years since a seven-year-old has won the Grand National so his run in the race last year should be seriously marked up and he also looked in top form when last sighted having the speed to win over 2m4f at Newbury which surprised many. Tricky Trickster, on the other hand, is this season’s chief hope for seven-year-olds and that factor could count against him. Many were tipping him up as a lively each-way shot for the Gold Cup but I felt connections reckoned the ground was not totally in his favour so they rode him more conservatively with Aintree in mind so he had a good prep and didn’t leave the Grand National behind him at Cheltenham. In today’s Weekender I noticed two writers felt he ran terribly in the Gold Cup but I don’t think the intention was anything other than getting him ready for Aintree. From a value point of view, a cigarette paper separated Tricky Trickster and Niche Market in the AON Chase and the runner-up is better off at the weights but is available at almost double the price.

With regards to that 70-year absence of a seven-year-old winner, if that stat is enough to put me off a class act like Tricky Trickster, then it also has to be enough to put me off the likes of Deutschland (not good enough), Piraya (dodgepot), The Package (had a very hard race in the William Hill Trophy but maybe not entirely straightforward) and Palypso De Creek (fourth in a bad Becher Chase).

As highlighted earlier, now the handicapper is hell bent on compressing the weights, I am not fussed about the 11st rule suggested by many but not by myself and there are as many as 16 horses still in the race set to carry over 11st this year after yesterday’s forfeit stage. For me 11st 5lbs is the cut-off as their record from 1997 reads 0-89 so therefore I will not be giving Madison Du Berlais (loves a flat track but appears to have gone doggy), Notre Pere (needs a quagmire), Mon Mome (we just don’t get back-to-back winners of this race bar Red Rum), Black Apalachi (great course form but I get the feeling he lost his big chance last year when falling at Bechers’ when leading), Joe Lively (too small and regressing) or Vic Venturi (won a very weak Becher Chase), a second look in terms of winning the race. Place-only is another matter but, as far as winning the thing is concerned, stats are heavily against them.

The Irish have a great recent record having won six of the last 11 runnings and, at the time of going to press, Gordon Elliott’s Backstage is their shortest-priced contender but that may change if A P McCoy elects to ride my long-term fancy Arbor Supreme of J P McManus’ quintet. Ideally I would prefer a horse older than eight like Arbor Supreme but, unlike seven-year-olds, they have won the race more than once in the last 20 years. Willie Mullins has won the race before with Hedgehunter and he showed his first true form of the season after the weights were published when an excellent second in a warm Leopardstown handicap chase last time out over an inadequate 2m5f and on soft ground he doesn’t like. He is an out-and-out stayer that will love spring ground and a big step up in trip. If McCoy chooses him over the other McManus runners then expect the current top price of 25/1 in a couple of places to collapse. As for Backstage, he is a plausible contender for sure and prepped for this race over hurdles like so many recent Irish-trained winners but there is not much value left in his price for me after Pricewise selected him.

Looking at the other Irish contenders, I feel Dessie Hughes’ pair of Vic Venturi and Black Apalachi have too much weight to go and win it but could go well, Snowy Morning and Chelsea Harbour have had a couple of chances already in the race, Preists Leap is a soft-ground slogger like Notre Pere, and like Deutschland, Made In Taipan and the Galway Plate winner Ballyholland, he has never won over three miles or more (not including point-to-points in the case of the latter) so they all have 40 years of history to overcome and are likely to struggle if it comes up soft. Maybe their forgotten horse is King Johns Castle who was second two years ago and is just 2lbs higher this year after missing all of last season and I am sure Arthur Moore has been training him with one race in mind since so I read nothing into his runs this campaign, a number of which over hurdles.

Looking at names to have run well over these fences before, and we must given that seven of the last nine winners had contested a race over the Grand National fences at some point, I much prefer last season’s fourth STATE OF PLAY who has clearly been trained for this race ever since and has an ideal racing weight of 10st 11lbs and I suggest we take the 25s each-way. This is a horse that loves flat, left-handed tracks so is a big player and is handicapped to win as not only is he 5lbs lower than when running so well to be fourth in the race last year, he is also back down to the mark of 145 off which he won the Hennessy Gold Cup four seasons ago and he has a fantastic record fresh so they have deliberately not run him since running in this season’s Hennessy which I have already highlighted has been the most influential guide in the last 30 years. Four seasons ago may sound like a heck of a long time but he has only raced 12 times since then and just 23 times in total and he is perfectly aged for this race being a ten-year-old. I also love the fact he races prominently which is a big positive over the Grand National fences and this will be his first run for 133 days and his record coming off a break of more than three months in the last four years reads: 116214P with the sixth coming in the Gold Cup and the fourth coming in the Grand National. He has also won the 3m1f handicap chase at this meeting by 16 lengths plus won and finished second in a Charlie Hall in addition to winning a Hennessy which shows how much he loves left-handed flat tracks. The price of 25/1 is decent each-way value back to a winning mark.

Comply Or Die is another clearly trained for the race having won in 2008 and he ran a belter off a big weight to be second last year. I can easily see him placing again and he looked well in the paddock when having his prep-race in the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham but horses just don’t win this race twice. I couldn’t put anyone off a place-only bet though. Irish Raptor won last season’s Topham after finishing second in the same race the previous season but I can’t have him staying the Grand National trip. I just don’t feel that Cloudy Lane really enjoys these fences, Can’t Buy Time doesn’t appeal as having enough stamina and fell in last year’s race and My Will had his big chance last season but couldn’t take it.

Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the Grand National twice before and his best chance can lay with last season’s Scottish National winner Hello Bud as he is bold-jumping horse that likes to race prominently which is exactly what we want on the second circuit. If it turned soft, that would be a worry however but such a surface would come more in favour of his stablemate Ballyfitz but surely he is not up to this and neither is Ollie Magern any more and I just feel the Racing Post Chase has finished off Razor Royale for the season and Beat The Boys has to come off two successive pulled-up efforts. Character Building won last season’s ‘Kim Muir’ and was well fancied here as a result but an eleventh hour injury ruled him out so he has been trained with Aintree in mind ever since. He didn’t show up as well as his supporters would have liked in the William Hill Trophy however.

Of the others I don’t feel that Don’t Push It’s hold-up style is well suited to this race, the ground is unlikely to be soft enough for the Welsh National winner Dream Alliance but the stable’s horses all looked fabulous in the paddock at Cheltenham so he would become interesting if the ground did come his way and although Air Force One has been trained for the race, he hasn’t shown his old form for a long time. Pablo Du Charmil and Lennon surely won’t stay and there also have to be doubts about Maljimar on that score. Erics Charm only won a veterans chase last time and is better at Sandown whilst of others in the top 40 in the weights as things currently stand, Nozic, Dooneys Gate, Ellerslie George, Conna Castle and Equus Maximus just don’t excite me.

The Aintree & Punchestown Festivals Betting Guide is published on April 1^st.