Paul Jones Private Service – NH Betting Guide – 5th Apr 10

Sun, Apr 4, 2010

Powers Whiskey Irish Grand National – Fairyhouse, Monday 5th April 2010

Never an easy race to try and work out and with the conditions likely to be extremely testing this 3m 5f trip will take some getting.

As you would expect for any race over such an extreme trip is pays to be at the right end of the handicap so runners with less than 11st on their backs must be preferred. Chancing stamina is also a no-no so favour those horses proven over 3m 2f+. These appear the main two trends for the race but sitting alongside them come important attributes such as course form, age and class. This is a Grade A handicap and so the likely winner is sure to have a touch of quality about them.

SHORTLIST
ONE COOL COOKIE
MOSKOVA
TELENOR
ALPHA RIDGE

CONCLUSION
Normally it pays to be rated 120-139 and so technically ONE COOL COOKIE would miss out by 1lb due is his 140 rating. That said he does come in under the 11st barrier (10st 13lbs) so looks ok to me. He’s a former Grade 1 winner, at this track, and has winning form over 3m 2f so ticks all the right boxes. He also has Class 1 form from this season thanks to a second place finish in the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase back in November and at around 25/1 looks solid value.

Paul Nolan is responsible for two of the four horses on the shortlist and both MOSKOVA and ALPHA RIDGE look interesting contenders. Both hit the right bracket, being seven and eight-years-old respectively for a start. The former has been ultra progressive in the last twelve months or so, capturing 3 Grade 3 events (admittedly all against her own sex) and warmed up for this with a victory over hurdles at the track in February. This is her toughest task to date but looks to be going the right away. ALPHA RIDGE has had just the four previous runs over fences so is being thrown in at the deep end here. That said he was second behind Panorama in a Grade 1 at the track back in December and with a Grade 2 victory over hurdles in heavy ground (3m) already on his CV he seemingly has the class to get involved despite his inexperience.

TELENOR is yet to taste life at Fairyhouse with isn’t ideal but he too looks a young chaser going places. Last seen dead-heating in a Navan Grade 2 over 3m on heavy ground, this will represent a big step up the chasing ladder but the eight-year-old appears to have the right credentials, especially if the trends are to be believed.

SADDLERS STORM is the current market leader but favourites do not have the best of records in this contest (average 10 year SP is 19/1) and while he looks the part on paper that position at the head of the market is off putting. Still, if anyone can get a favourite to win here then I guess Tony Martin can!