Aintree Festival Betting Guide – Day 1

Wed, Apr 7, 2010

Cheltenham was very tough for punters on the whole and, as such, trends-based horses also struggled so I hope we can put the record straight at Aintree and Punchestown where trends-based horses fared particularly well last year. Horses in brackets don’t fit the stats ideally but have enough going for them to warrant inclusion.

2.00 BGC PARTNERS LIVERPOOL HURDLE
Very recently been upgraded to a Grade 1 this year as has the Totesport Bowl so there are no penalties for either of those races now in addition to two other Grade 2 novice hurdles at the meeting where they have also got shot of the penalty structure. I can only assume they are trying to get more class horses and Cheltenham Festival winners by this move and have succeeded with the winners of the four equivalent races at Cheltenham all set to run but all they have done in my opinion is make those races less competitive as now we could have four odds-on shots. If their plan is to organise a meeting for more odds-on favourites than any other, then they may well succeed. Poor in my opinion as we now have replica races of Cheltenham rather than horses meeting others on different terms which made it far more interesting.

Onto the stats and basically all they do is narrow it down to the obvious one of BIG BUCK’S now that Time For Rupert has been withdrawn after being declared having scope dirty. Like all six winners of this race Big Buck’s has won or finished second at this meeting before and is aged either six or seven (he is seven) and will start in the first three in the betting. He also won the World Hurdle and five of these six winners of this race were won by a top-four finisher in that Festival race.

The fact that all six previous winners of this race had won or finished second at the meeting before is also a plus for TIDAL BAY and BOUGGLER who are both previous winners of the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (the former also won the Maghull Novices’ Chase) whilst BIG BUCK’S has won this race before and the Mildmay Novices’ Chase. The other five winners have yet to achieve this feat so are not for me though SOUFFLEUR is quite interesting being a two-time course winner in three starts and Peter Bowen often lays his horses out to win at Aintree.

TIDAL BAY is too old for me at the age of nine (all six winners were six or seven) and also too unreliable and he spat the dummy out in the World Hurdle just as he did in the Melling Chase at this meeting last year. BOUGGLER is only five and we know how tough it is for horses of that age to win top staying hurdles. I think he will run well but maybe not well enough to win. SILVER TOKEN is also five in addition to being outclassed and KAYF ARAMIS is eight and essentially a handicapper.

SHORT LIST
BIG BUCK’S
(SOUFFLEUR)
(BOUGGLER)

CONCLUSION
Mighty hard to get away from BIG BUCK’S on form and patterns but I can not seeing us beating 2/5 at best now that Time For Rupert is out of the race. The only slight niggle I would have is that he likes to be wound up in his race and can have a flat spot which is fine at Cheltenham and Newbury where he has time to recover but three flights in the home straight isn’t ideal for a horse with that profile and had Mighty Man not fluffed the last flight last year, he would have been made to work hard to win. I have included SOUFFLEUR even though he doesn’t meet the previous win-or-placed stat at this meeting as he 2-3 from the track and Peter Bowen almost won this race with Mr Ed not so long away and Souffleur loves a flat, left-handed track with two long straights so I see him as an each/way or place-only horse or maybe a bet without the favourite. BOUGGLER is no forlorn hope to run a big race either and a small field will help him stay three miles but I can’t have TIDAL BAY who just can not be trusted.

2.35 MATALAN 4YO ANNIVERSARY NOVICES’ HURDLE
Proven class tells in this race, and definitely so since it became a Grade 1 race, so I would against horses not to have at least placed in pattern races or won at least two hurdles starts which means I have to be against AL QEDDAAF, DOUBLE HANDFUL, DRUSSELL, NAFAATH, ORSSIPUS and SUPER KENNY before I do anything else.

Since this was a Grade 1 race and the penalties were therefore taken out of it, it’s been favourites all the way winning all five runnings and I would think that position would fall to either the runaway ‘Fred Winter’ SANCTUAIRE who beat NOTUS DE LA TOUR all ends up or the Grade 1 winner ME VOICI who then ran away with a Grade 2 event next time with the ground likely to sway punters more in favour of Sanctuaire as Me Voici looks like he wants lots of cut. ME VOICI won the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow which has also been a key guide as five of the last ten winners of that race ran in that Grade 1 affair.

The key guide has been the Triumph Hurdle as you would expect and eight of the last ten winners ran there and this year’s race looks best represented (on the face of it but I disagree) by the runner-up BARIZAN who almost stole the race kicking 25 lengths clear of the field at one point but was eventually reeled in. OLOFI also runs who finished ninth but could never get into a freak running of what was also probably a substandard renewal so am highly sceptical about that form and can easily envisage Olofi reversing with Barizan here.

Another stat that catches my eye is how well French-breds have fared in this race winning six of the last 11 runnings which is significant when they were only responsible for around a quarter of the runners and they are represented here by ME VOICI, OLOFI, NOTUS DE LA TOUR and SANCTUAIRE and I will be very surprised if the winner doesn’t emanate from that quartet as am not a Barizan fan.

SHORT LIST
SANCTUAIRE
ME VOICI
OLOFI

CONCLUSION
NOTUS DE LA TOUR could have made it onto the short list if I wanted to push it up to four names (which I didn’t) and has a 7lbs pull with SANCTUAIRE on ‘Fred Winter’ form but the winner hacked up so easily by nine lengths it is hard to see how the second can reverse the form with the winner. Two reasons he can get closer are that even though Sanctuaire won so breezily at Cheltenham, to win so well is still likely to have taken something out of him plus Nicholls has said he can race freely so he has less runners in which to find cover this time. Sanctuaire could be very high class indeed and just too quick for these over hurdles. ME VOICI could also be top class but maybe more likely over fences. Whether the ground will be quite soft enough for him to show his very best I have my doubts and maybe the form of his two wins isn’t that special either but he is one classy looking individual hailing from a yard that do so well in this sphere so he has a big shout here. My outsider, if he is that, to run into the frame would be OLOFI who ran in the Triumph, has decent pattern-race form and is a French bred so meets a good number of trends. He could never get into a bizarre Triumph Hurdle but is very well regarded at home so could easily bounce back and repay each-way support. I don’t fancy BARIZAN much even though he meets some of the patterns as I felt he was given too much rope when second in the Triumph, endured an exceptionally hard race in the circumstances and there is no way they are going to give him such a big lead this time.

3.10 TOTESPORT BOWL
I’ve already had my rant but this is also a Grade 1 chase so there is no penalty structure in place which makes the race far less interesting and we have only five runners. The best place is to start is the Gold Cup as 19 of the 26 winners ran there but, more often that not, it pays to follow an also-ran rather than a horse that flogged its guts out as they have been spared a hard race which is why I am going to oppose IMPERIAL COMMANDER. The official handicapper tells us he ran to a massive rating of 185 in the Gold Cup and Timeform told us he put the single-best performance in the Gold Cup since Arkle so there has to be a chance he could suffer a reaction to that and run below his best. As for Gold Cup winners in this race, I hope I am not tempting fate but Dawn Run fell here as did Desert Orchid which suggests winning at Cheltenham took something out of them. The other two Gold Cup protagonists are CARRUTHERS who finished fourth and CALGARY BAY who finished sixth and, of the pair, Carruthers had by far the harder race and will have to be made of stern stuff to repeat that performance three weeks later.

IMPERIAL COMMANDER will also start favourite but it has been the second and third-favourites that have by far a better record in the race having won over half of the last 17 runnings between them. WHAT A FRIEND looks like starting second-favourite with NACARAT third-favourite. The stat against What A Friend is that only two winners in the history of the race bypassed the Cheltenham Festival altogether.

There are other stats but they are irrelevant this year with just five runners meaning there are no older horses (10yo+) to latch onto as they have a great record and none of the King George 1-2-3 are represented as they have won 7 of the last 13 winners but NACARAT did finish fourth in that race (Imperial Commander was out of it after an early mistake) and I would say shaped like the second best horse in the race but I do think he is a slightly better horse going right-handed. However, I think he is likely to lead (though CARRUTHERS may want to take him on) and the pacesetter has a superb record in this winning 11 of the 26 runnings so in-running punters take note.

SHORT LIST
NACARAT
CALGARY BAY

CONCLUSION
There are grounds for believing that IMPERIAL COMMANDER at top odds of 10/11 is a big price as he is so far clear on these on official ratings it is untrue (23lbs clear of the second highest rated horse) so he could run a stone below his best and still win comfortably. The worries I have are that he may have left his race behind him in the Gold Cup like so many favourites have done in the past and maybe he has simply had it for the season plus the stat that he has only been beaten once in his career following a break of 50+ days (and that was by a nose to Kauto Star) but has only won once in his career following a break of less than 50 days and that was at long odds-on in a novice hurdle. He should bolt up on form but there are enough doubts to let him pass for me at odds-on. If NACARAT leads and Imperial Commander suffers a reaction to posting a massive figure at Cheltenham, he could pinch this as front runners have a sensational record in this race. I do question whether he is slightly better going right-handed but basically he is a three-mile, flat track horse with some cut in the ground and that is what he has got here and he shaped like the second-best horse in the King George (another flat track over 3m) until fading at the final fence. WHAT A FRIEND would be only the third winner of 27 runnings of this race to have bypassed the Cheltenham Festival if successful so I can resist him at around 7/2 but I do feel the rank outsider CALGARY BAY is overpriced at 20/1 and of each-way interest. He ran well to be sixth in the Gold Cup especially as he didn’t settle for the first mile as was too fresh as Henrietta Knight had not run him for so long but, with that freshness out of his system, I feel he is really interesting here as didn’t have anyway near as hard a race as Imperial Commader or CARRUTHERS in the Gold Cup and, as we’ve seen with two impressive wins at Doncaster, he does love a left-handed, flat track with two long straights.

3.45 JOHN SMITH’S FOX HUNTERS CHASE
There is usually a maximum field so am surprised just 21 line up and, in short, it pays not to stray too far beyond the obvious as all bar one of the last 17 winners could be found in the first four in the betting and, at the time of sending this copy, they are currently BABY RUN, TRUST FUND, HAVING A CUT and MONCADOU but that could easily change so has to be monitored.

Of those fancied horses, I am most drawn to horses that came here via the handicapping route as they are leading those brought up in a pointing background 6-2 over the last eight years so that would be BABY RUN and MONCADOU.

I would be against horses aged eight or under as experience counts over the big fences and just two horses aged eight or under have won in the last 26 years which means that HAVING A CUT, ISLAND FLYER and NEDZER’S RETURN are up against it.

I am also not keen to support a horse unplaced last time out as only two of the last 17 winners had such a profile which is against LAUNDE, TOMMY TWO SHOES and last year’s winner TRUST FUND. Another negative stat is that only one of the last 15 winners was winning for the first time this season when scoring here which tends to rule out LITTLE ROCKER (another negative for Launde).

SHORT LIST
MONCADOU
BABY RUN
(TRUST FUND)

CONCLUSION
I make no apologies for concentrating on the leading fancies here as class tells in this race and 16 of the last 17 winners started in the first four in the betting so will also perm them in exactas and trifectas. I remember Thierry Doumen attempting to lay out MONCADOU to win the Festival Plate at Cheltenham three seasons back for J P McManus without success (backed into 5/1 that day) and he hacked up in his only hunter chase this season and this is a race where ex-handicappers have a fine record. Very lightly raced for a ten-year-old having run 15 times, he is a mighty interesting recruit to hunter chasing for Jonjo O’Neill and still wears the McManus silks so has the accomplished Alan Berry in the saddle. BABY RUN made all to win the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ and his style of racing is ideal for this race as prominent racers have a distinct edge. The slight worry would be he had a hard race at Cheltenham but he is a top class hunter having also won the big hunter chase at Punchestown last season and is still improving. Is likely to give Sam Twiston-Davies the ride of his life or take a crunching fall I would say. TRUST FUND gets in the short list despite not finishing placed last time out but there mitigated circumstances for that as (a) it was in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ – the best hunter chase of the season and (b) he was badly hampered when starting to stay on so they looked after him to try and win successive runnings of this race for his top-class pointing connections.

4.20 ALDER HEY IMAGINE APPEAL RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE
One of my favourite races of the season as I have made hay in this contest down the years backing novices as they have won six of the last eight runnings and their representatives this year are PIGEON ISLAND, SAFARI JOURNEY and ARKENDALE which is less than usual so easier not for me to mess up and pick the wrong one!

PIGEON ISLAND (1^st) and SAFARI JOUNEY (6^th) also contested the Grand Annual which has been a great guide to this race down the years and been responsible for six of the last 11 years so their trends-based credentials look very strong. Also representing the Grand Annual are CONSIGLIERE (3^rd) who was trading long odds-on approaching the last but found a way to get beat again, NIKOLA (7^th), LENNON (9^th) and (OISEAU DE NUIT (pulled up).

LENNON is now a ten-year-old however, and just one winner of this race in the last 21 years has been aged in double figures so I would be against him as I would fellow ten-year-olds LORD JAY JAY and ENLIGHTENMENT plus the eleven-year-olds STAN and KILLMACKILLOGE.

It’s also usually a case of the lower the weight the better which puts me off those at the top of the weights CHAPOTURGEON, OISEAU DE NUIT and CONSIGLIERE but that’s more good news for the novices that ran in the Grand Annual.

SHORT LIST
PIGEON ISLAND
SAFARI JOURNEY
NIKOLA
ARKENDALE

CONCLUSION
Given the fantastic record of novices in this race I have no option to back both PIGEON ISLAND and SAFARI JOURNEY especially as they are lowly-weighted which is ideal for this race and also ran in the Grand Annual which has been far and away the best guide but that’s fine by me as I really fancy the pair of them. Pigeon Island got up close home to win and two winners of that race have doubled up here in the last five years. Safari Journey finished sixth but that was a good run as the ground probably turned against him as rain fell throughout the afternoon and the Hobbs team are in great form so he is a big player here. Although not a novice NIKOLA also ran well in the Grand Annual finishing seventh and is lowly-weighted. He doesn’t win very often but regularly runs well and could easily repay each-way support as he is well handicapped on his run when splitting the Grand Annual second and third earlier in the season. ARKENDALE is the Irish hope and bottom weight and a very experienced novice though has won just one of his 15 chase starts. I know little about him to be honest but the fact he is just one of three novices means he squeezes onto the short list especially as he is likely to be a massive price.

4.55 TOTEPOOL MANIFESTO NOVICES’ CHASE
This race isn’t featured in the trends guide as it has only had one airing so far. A Grade 2 novices’ chase over 2m4f, horses that were also-rans in the Arkle Trophy filled three of the first four places in 2009 courtesy of Tartak, Planet Of Sound and Calgary Bay with Deep Purple, who bypassed the Cheltenham Festival, getting in amongst them finishing second. The favourite was the Jewson winner Chapoturgeon who fell in the early stages. Maybe it wasn’t surprising that the Jewson supplied the favourite as this race is over the same trip more or less but last season’s result demonstrates you can not beat Grade 1 form whereas the Jewson is only a handicap after all. Both the winner and runner-up were very experienced novices having their tenth and seventh chase outing respectively.

SHORT LIST
SOMERSBY
MAD MAX

CONCLUSION
SOMERSBY brings the main Arkle form to this year’s race and will be tough to beat having run a very good second to Sizing Europe with Mad Max back in fourth. Maybe being off the track for almost four months cost Somersby the extra edge he needed to win it but more likely is that he just finds two miles a little on the sharp side and he rather warmed to his task staying on in such a manner than suggests this step up to 2m4f is perfect for him at this stage of his career. He also ran a good race when a close-up third in the Mersey Hurdle last season over 2m4f having placed in the Supreme over 2m three weeks earlier so we know he can handle two races in the spring in fairly quick succession. He should be able to outclass these. More aggressive tactics brought around an improvement in MAD MAX in the Arkle when he finished fourth and would have been closer but for a bad mistake two out and as Arkle form was key last season, he would be my danger to Somersby ahead of THE NIGHTINGALE who has no real form to talk about and OTHERMIX who ran well in the Jewson.

5.30 SILVER CROSS HANDICAP HURDLE
Given that novices have won five of the last eight runnings we have to take the chances of WISHFULL THINKING, BLACK JACK BLUES, SIBERIAN TIGER, TARA ROYAL and PISTOLET NOIR seriously.

The other big positive stat is that J P McManus has won five of the last 12 winners of this race and I reckon his pair of AINAMA and SILVERHAND have both been saved for a spring campaign this season and look well handicapped so both interest me though the form of Meade yard is a little worrying for the latter. Neither have won this season which is a stat against them as 17 of the last 21 winners had won earlier in the campaign but two of those not to win earlier in the season were J P owned horses so I am not fussed about that for Ainama and Silverhand but I would be for other non winners this season such as AFSOUN, EL DANCER, SONGE, SOUTH O’THE BORDER, DOESLESSTHANME and PASCHA BERE.

I would also just about favour Cheltenham Festival runners as 10 of the 21 winners ran there with the Coral Cup the most favoured race with five winners which featured WISHFULL THINKING (fell 2 out when travelling well), SILVERHAND (9^th was travelling even better when hampered by the stricken Wishfull Thinking), SIR HARRY ORMESHER (7^th) and MAMLOOK (10^th).

SHORT LIST
WISHFULL THINKING
AINAMA
TARA ROYAL
SILVERHAND
SIBERIAN TIGER

CONCLUSION
I do like novices for this race but BLACK JACK BLUES and PISTOLET NOIR just miss out on the shortlist but three others remain where WISHFULL THINKING looks the strongest as he hails from an in-form yard and would have gone close to winning the Coral Cup (the best guide) but for falling two out. He almost brought down SILVERHAND that day who was coasting at the time so J P McManus’s grey also comes into this and should love a flat track to try and give his owner a remarkable sixth win in the last 13 runnings but the form of the Meade yard is a slight concern. I just prefer AINAMA of the McManus horses as he was laid out for the Pertemps Final and ran okay but I am sure 2m4f on a flat track will suit this ex-Flat horse more than 3m on an undulating course. TARA ROYAL and SIBERIAN TIGER are other interesting novices. The former represents the in-form McCain team and has his handicap debut after two wins from just three hurdling starts whilst the latter was impressive for Tony Martin last time but is now with Michael Wigham and he remains unexposed over hurdles.