Eyecatchers – 7th April 10

Wed, Apr 7, 2010

Welcome to the first Aintree special and there are six horses that I am looking forward to backing.

The first one is WHAT A FRIEND in the totesport Bowl at 3.10 on Thursday. He has been kept fresh for this and connections are very confident. It has been reported that he has improved since his last run and although Imperial Commander is obviously a serious opponent; the fact is that he is best fresh and this run comes only three weeks after a very hard race against Denman. CARRUTHERS is also worth backing at 14/1 as he is capable of running a big race as this track should suit much more than Cheltenham and he could prove hard to catch. Remember on his chase debut at Uttoxeter he was beaten just two lengths by What A Friend.

SOMERSBY ran a solid race in the Arkle but with that run under his belt and having an extra four furlongs to run over in the totepool Manifesto Chase (4.55), he should be hard to beat. He jumps extremely well and fast which should ensure he is travelling well throughout and having already shown good form at Aintree (third last year) he looks a confident selection.

In the matalan.co.uk Mildmay Novices Chase on Friday BURTON PORT bids to go one better than at Cheltenham and should be hard to beat. He has progressed really well all season and has impressed me with his jumping. This track should suit him and as long as this is not a race too far, he should win and he is also a very strong pick on trends.

OFFSHORE ACCOUNT looks set to take his chance in the John Smith’s Topham Chase over the National fences at 3.45 on Friday and should go very well. Last year he appeared to love the big fences in the National and was leading for part of the way before his stamina gave out. This step back in trip should really suit this front runner and the fact that he ran so well at Cheltenham recently could show he is coming into form at exactly the right time and odds of 12/1 look fair.

On Saturday TATANIANO has been entered for the John Smith Maghull Novices Chase and providing the ground is no worse than good to soft I am expecting a huge run. On decent ground he jumps and travels like a very good horse and on a track that suits front runners he could prove very hard to catch. This race usually goes to a horse that ran in the Arkle and Osana fits the bill, but he had a hard race and although I may be tempted to cover with a forecast, I will back Tataniano to win.

The big race of the meeting is at 4.15 on Saturday and as part of this service I have included the preview I have written for subscribers to my HORSES TO FOLLOW service. I hope you enjoy it and good luck with your punting on one of the greatest days of the year!

4.15PM JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL
As mentioned at the start of the season there are four key statistics to take into account when selecting your National horse.

11 of last 13 had won over at least three miles three furlongs or been placed in either the Welsh or Irish Nationals
12 of last 12 winners had won a class one chase and 15 of last 16 winners had won a class one chase
11 of the last 13 winners were rated between 136 and 148
No winner has carried in excess of 11-1 since the 1980s

Amazingly not many horses qualify this year but one horse that meets the trends 100% is HELLO BUD trained by the man of the moment Nigel Twiston-Davies. His record when tackling marathon trips (3m3f or more is 5 from 11) and his front running style suits this race. Last season he made all to win the Scottish Grand National and then ran a blinder at Cheltenham in November when giving a stone to Gallant Nuit. He then in my opinion ran too soon when tackling the National fences just eight days later and although he could only finish fifth, he ran well for a long way and could reward punters at very attractive odds of 50/1.

ARBOR SUPREME is another that meets the trends. At Punchestown two years ago he won over 3m6f on good ground and then seven months later won over 3m5f on soft ground. He has run consistently well since, but caught the eye last time out when beaten less than two lengths over 2m5f at Leopardstown. Like most recent Irish trained winners he has had a run over hurdles to protect his handicap mark and appeals as a likely winner for Ireland.

Three horses that just miss out on the trends are NICHE MARKET, BIG FELLA THANKS and DREAM ALLIANCE.

NICHE MARKET loves big wide flat tracks as shown by his record at Newbury. Earlier in the season he ran an excellent third in the Hennessy Gold Cup behind Denman and What A Friend and both horses have boosted the form. He then had the measure of Denman in the AON chase when just caught by Tricky Trickster, but his front running style is much more suited to this race and the fact he won the Irish National last year just shows he has the class required and I fancy him to run a huge race.

BIG FELLA THANKS ran a cracker last time out when over an inadequate two and a half miles he beat Pasco at Newbury. Last year as a seven year old in ran a huge race in the National to finish sixth having looked very dangerous three out. He has a touch of class and is also well in at the weights, (if the handicapper could re-asses the race, he would carry five pounds more).

DREAM ALLIANCE ran a great race in the 2007 Hennessy Gold Cup when finishing second to Denman and secured his biggest ever victory earlier this season when landing the Welsh National at Chepstow. He has a touch of class that is often required in this race and with his stable being in such good form; he is worth backing at 40/1.

My final short list of five is as follows:
1)      HELLO BUD
2)      ARBOR SUPREME
3)      NICHE MARKET
4)      BIG FELLA THANKS
5)      DREAM ALLIANCE

I hope you have enjoyed subscribing to the EYECATCHERS service and found it a very profitable experience. Razor Royale winning the Racing Post Chase and Polyfast and Wogan securing the exacta in the Novices Handicap Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day were my personal highlights. I plan to improve the service for next season and have already built up a strong team of horses for my HORSES TO FOLLOW service.