NH Horses To Follow – Aintree (Festival Subscribers Only)

Wed, Apr 7, 2010

This update will preview the races where any of the thirty horses to follow have been entered. This year we have entries in seven races and there is also a special Grand National preview that will provide you with a short list of five horses for the big race.

THURSDAY APRIL 8TH

2.00PM BCG PARTNERS LIVERPOOL HURDLE
BIG BUCK’S has been entered and can not be opposed. Since reverting back to hurdles he has been unstoppable, winning all seven starts. Last time he won the World Hurdle without coming off the bridle and having missed the Cleeve Hurdle he should be fresh enough to do himself justice. Although successful in this race last year I do believe that Aintree is not his ideal track and it would not surprise me if he was to be given a harder race this time as Tidal Bay has a great record at Aintree and could surprise a few people.

3.10PM TOTESPORT BOWL CHASE
Imperial Commander bids to follow up his victory in the Gold Cup and on ratings he should do it. I will happily take him on though as firstly I believe he had a very hard race at Cheltenham, secondly he goes best fresh and thirdly Cheltenham is his course and Aintree will set a different challenge for him. WHAT A FRIEND however has been kept back for this so that he enters it nice and fresh and the track should suit him. It has been reported that he has improved since Leopardstown, the ground should suit and he looks number one to benefit if the favourite was to flop.

4.55PM TOTEPOOL MANIFESTO NOVICES CHASE
SOMERSBY ran a blinder for us at Cheltenham, but was just found out over the minimum trip and the extra four furlongs of this race should really suit and I expect him to win. He is a superb jumper and looks a class act. It is worth remembering that when he won at Sandown, he did so in a quicker time than that achieved by Twist Magic in the Tingle Creek later on the card.

FRIDAY APRIL 9TH

4.55PM JOHN SMITH’S SMITHYTHEHORSE.COM HANDICAP HURDLE
RED HARBOUR landed a nice gamble for us last time out and although the handicapper has raised him eight pounds, he is capable of running another solid race. He was very well handicapped last time out and should have enough in hand to run well again, especially as he has skipped Cheltenham for this and others will have left their race behind at Prestbury Park.

SATURDAY APRIL 10TH

1.45PM JOHN SMITH’S MERSEY NOVICES HURDLE
QUANTITATIVEEASING has been entered and must have a decent chance after running a good race to finish fifth in the Coral Cup. I believe that this easier track and slightly shorter distance will play to his strengths, but it is a tough race with his Kempton conqueror Phidippides and Cheltenham winner Peddlers Cross in opposition.

2.15PM JOHN SMITH’S MAGHULL NOVICES CHASE
This race consistently goes to one of the market leaders that ran in the Arkle at Cheltenham. The one that stands out is OSANA who ran a blinder to finish third to Sizing Europe. He has taken well to chasing and the track and ground should hold no fears. The one I really like though is TATANIANO who is a bold jumping front runner that should feel right at home at Aintree. His style of racing should make him hard to catch and although he has to defy the stats (having not run in the Arkle) he comes here fresh and providing the ground is no worse than good to soft, I believe will be hard to beat.

4.15PM JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL
As mentioned at the start of the season there are four key statistics to take into account when selecting your National horse.

11 of last 13 had won over at least three miles three furlongs or been placed in either the Welsh or Irish Nationals
12 of last 12 winners had won a class one chase and 15 of last 16 winners had won a class one chase
11 of the last 13 winners were rated between 136 and 148
No winner has carried in excess of 11-1 since the 1980s

Amazingly not many horses qualify this year but one horse that meets the trends 100% is HELLO BUD trained by the man of the moment Nigel Twiston-Davies. His record when tackling marathon trips (3m3f or more is 5 from 11) and his front running style suits this race. Last season he made all to win the Scottish Grand National and then ran a blinder at Cheltenham in November when giving a stone to Gallant Nuit. He then in my opinion ran too soon when tackling the National fences just eight days later and although he could only finish fifth, he ran well for a long way and could reward punters at very attractive odds of 50/1.

ARBOR SUPREME is another that meets the trends. At Punchestown two years ago he won over 3m6f on good ground and then seven months later won over 3m5f on soft ground. He has run consistently well since, but caught the eye last time out when beaten less than two lengths over 2m5f at Leopardstown. Like most recent Irish trained winners he has had a run over hurdles to protect his handicap mark and appeals as a likely winner for Ireland.

Three horses that just miss out on the trends are NICHE MARKET, BIG FELLA THANKS and DREAM ALLIANCE.

NICHE MARKET loves big wide flat tracks as shown by his record at Newbury. Earlier in the season he ran an excellent third in the Hennessy Gold Cup behind Denman and What A Friend and both horses have boosted the form. He then had the measure of Denman in the AON chase when just caught by Tricky Trickster, but his front running style is much more suited to this race and the fact he won the Irish National last year just shows he has the class required and I fancy him to run a huge race.

BIG FELLA THANKS ran a cracker last time out when over an inadequate two and a half miles he beat Pasco at Newbury. Last year as a seven year old in ran a huge race in the National to finish sixth having looked very dangerous three out. He has a touch of class and is also well in at the weights, (if the handicapper could re-asses the race, he would carry five pounds more).

DREAM ALLIANCE ran a great race in the 2007 Hennessy Gold Cup when finishing second to Denman and secured his biggest ever victory earlier this season when landing the Welsh National at Chepstow. He has a touch of class that is often required in this race and with his stable being in such good form; he is worth backing at 40/1.

1) HELLO BUD
2) ARBOR SUPREME
3) NICHE MARKET
4) BIG FELLA THANKS
5) DREAM ALLIANCE

5.00PM JOHN SMITH’S HANDICAP HURDLE
ERADICATE never got competitive at Cheltenham, but Aintree should suit him much better. He was classy on the flat and ran very well on his seasonal debut over hurdles when winning at Musselburgh. As long as the ground is no worse than good to soft I can see him going very well. The one I really like for this though is GHIZAO of Paul Nicholls who looks well treated off a mark of just 136. He was very impressive when winning his bumper at Cheltenham and followed it up with a solid run behind General Miller, before winning at Taunton. Although beaten at Cheltenham, this is a much easier task and he is capable of winning it before going on to better things.