Paul Jones Private Service – Aintree Day 2

Thu, Apr 8, 2010

JOHN SMITH’S TOP NOVICES’ HURDLE
In a nutshell, it usually pays not to look too far beyond the obvious as it tends to fall to a fancied horse and especially if they formerly raced on the Flat rather than brought up through the bumper ranks. Aintree plays to speed over stamina on the whole so I am not surprised that ex-Flat horses and well up on ex-bumpers horse winning all but one of the last seven runnings so I would be against the jumps-bred CAPTIVE AUDIENCE, DAN BREEN, GENERAL MILLER and MENORAH.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winners are rare birds in this Grade 2 contest so we are honoured to have MENORAH take the plunge helped by the conditions change in that he does not have a Grade 1 penalty and six of the last 11 winners of the Top Novices’ Hurdle, notched up a top-six position in the ‘Supreme’. What I would say about Menorah though was he couldn’t have looked any fitter at Cheltenham in the paddock beforehand which I alluded to in the ‘Live’ service on Bettrends at the time so I don’t see him improving – it’s just a matter of whether he can maintain that wellbeing. The Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton in late February has been the other race to consider down the years though not so much of late and this season’s running was won by the four-year-old ESCORT’MEN who hacked up from his elders and he will bid to become the third winner of that race in the last 18 years to win this from very few to have tried as most four-year-olds head for the Anniversary Hurdle on the opening day.

MENORAH is, of course, trained by Philip Hobbs who won this race three times on the spin at the start of the decade so I am not all surprised they are running him here. Nicky Henderson, on the other hand, has a poor record in this race being 0-18 and GENERAL MILLER doesn’t look top class so give those two factors means I have to take him on.

Returning to not looking too far beyond the obvious, 14 of the last 19 winners started in the first four in the market and 10 of the last 13 winners finished first or second last time out so anything that did not achieve this stat outside of those who finished in the top six in the ‘Supreme’ can go which means I won’t be backing INVENTOR who was ninth in the County Hurdle.

SHORT LIST
ESCORT’MEN
LA SARRAZINE
WASHINGTON IRVING

CONCLUSION
I have concentrated on the ex-Flat horses on this speed-favouring, flat course which has enabled their greater pace to come through six times in the last seven years which is why I have not included MENORAH even though he won the Supreme, which has been the best guide. He could not have looked any fitter that day and that may well have been his big day in the sun. I do prefer ESCORT’MEN of the big two. A runaway winner of the Dovecote, which was a good guide in 1990s, that performance was officially the best by a 4yo this season and Paul Nicholls also won this with a 4yo who ran at Kempton last time out when Pierrot Lunaire hacked up in this race two years taking advantage of the weight he received from his elders and I envisage a similar outcome. LA SARRAZINE was a classy sort on the Flat who I have heard McCoy has taken a real shine to and taken well to hurdles so I would expect her flat-race class to be seen to good effect on this track as I would the Derby fifth WASHINGTON IRVING who is sure to prefer better ground than he has so far encountered over hurdles. I don’t think GENERAL MILLER is quick or good enough but can see INVENTOR, another from the Flat, running a big race and being a fair each-way shot, as he ran too freely mid-race in the County Hurdle and shaped much better than his final finishing position of ninth.

MATALAN.CO.UK MILDMAY NOVICES’ CHASE
Some big stats for this race notably that 26 of the last 28 winners had won twice over fences which is not good news for supporters of DANCE ISLAND and LENABANE though the latter has been keeping good company and all but two of the last 19 winners had won over at least three miles (and this is 3m1f) which is against the likes of LENABANE, RORY BOY and TAKE THE BREEZE. Both are big stats when you think about it.

Unsurprisingly the RSA Chase has been the best guide but often is the case that a horse that did not endure a hard race there will reverse form with a horse that slogged its guts out to run really well. Both BURTON PORT (2^nd) and KNOCKARA BEAU (4^th) had hard races in the RSA Chase though I would say especially so for the first-named. Seven of the last eight winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival so Jewson fallers DOOR BOY and LENABANE also fall into that category as does TAKE THE BREEZE who finished eighth in the same race, KHACHATURIAN who was fifth after leading from much of the second circuit in the Kim Muir and OGEE who was a terrific third in the William Hill Trophy especially having made a very bad mistake on the first circuit.

Trainer trends are a little thin on the ground but Paul Nicholls has won this twice and had three more placed in recent years and he is represented by TAKE THE BREEZE. Also of note is that only one horse in the last 21 years has been sent off at greater than 10/1 (and he was a 12/1 shot) so I won’t be considering an upset.

SHORT LIST
OGEE
KNOCKARA BEAU
(DOOR BOY)

CONCLUSION
OGEE would just about be the trends pick surviving the main negative patterns and having run a screamer to be a close-up third in the competitive William Hill Trophy and is now back to taking on fellow novices again. The winner of the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at this meeting last year, he is arguably even better on flat tracks and the only reservation I have is that he had a very hard race at Cheltenham last time. As the RSA Chase has been the best guide so I include KNOCKARA BEAU and prefer him to the runner-up in that event BURTON PORT as horses that had a very hard race there do not have as good a record as horses that finished behind them and this will also be Burton Port’s fourth run in around seven weeks which is most unlike his trainer so suspect his local owner wanted to run him. If he does win after his recent schedule and hard race in the RSA Chase then he is one tough cookie. Okay, Knockara Beau hasn’t officially won over 3m but he won by a big distance over 2m7f so lets not be pedantic here as there are no question marks over his stamina, in fact I think he is crying out for this longer trip and will also be seen to better effect on this flat track. DOOR BOY represents last season’s winning connections and, like Killyglen, he didn’t have a hard race at Cheltenham as did not finish and a return to a longer trip can also help him.

3.10 JOHN SMITH’S MELLING CHASE
The message has been clear down the years, don’t risk your money on horses who haven’t already won over at least 2m4f. In recent seasons both Master Minded and Well Chief have come into this race unproven over the trip and both were beaten at odds-on. Therefore, horses likely to struggle on trip grounds today are FORPADYDEPLASTERER who has given the impression 2m4f stretched him a little in the past, MAHOGANY BLAZE and OH CRICK (all out to win over 2m3f at a tight track like Hereford.

I would also say steer clear of horses aged seven or under as they are only 2-23 in the race and one of those winners was in the inaugural 1991 running which counts against POQUELIN (may also be a Cheltenham specialist), TARTAK and OH CRICK.

Given that 10 of the last 15 winners posted a top-three position in the Champion Chase, that is clearly a big boost for the chances of this season’s second and third, FORPADYDEPLASTERER and KALAHARI KING. The runner-up also filled the same spot in Tingle Creek Chase that has featured half of the last 14 winners and he is also Irish-trained like five of the last eight winners as is last season’s narrow runner-up SCHINDLERS HUNT.

The race that is starting to have a major effect since it was first run in 2005 is the Ryanair Chase as they have won three of the five runnings of the Melling Chase since its inception (though all three were beaten at Cheltenham) and this is close to a re-run of that event with ALBERTAS RUN (1^st), POQUELIN (2^nd), DEEP PURPLE (4^th), JACK THE GIANT (8^th) and SCHINDLERS HUNT (fell) crossing swords again. I felt Poquelin could have been closer but for a bad mistake late on, Deep Purple may have been prepping for this race as they chose to lead and this track will suit him better and Jack The Giant ran well for a long way on his seasonal debut and will be much sharper this time. Whether Albertas Run can run two races the same is debatable and Schindlers Hunt didn’t appear to be going that well when he came down. The Ascot Chase, run in mid-February, has featured in the campaign of two of the last three winners and MONETS GARDEN galloped his rivals into the ground at the age of 12 this season beating ALBERTAS RUN and OH CRICK comfortably and there is no reason why he should not confirm that form on his favourite course. No horse beaten in this race last year has ever won which is against which counts against SCHINDLERS HUNT.

In terms of the market, the favourite or second-favourite has won 12 times in the last 15 years which you do not need me to tell you is a very strong record and between 2003-2005 the favourite led home the second-favourite each time. There have been just three winners priced at bigger than 9/2 since 1994. At the time of publishing, those positions are held by KALAHARI KING and FORPADYDEPLASTERER with POQUELIN close up behind in the market.

SHORT LIST
KALAHARI KING
DEEP PURPLE
MONETS GARDEN

CONCLUSION
KALAHARI KING fits the stats best as was placed in the Champion Chase, is the right kind of age, has won at this meeting before (the majority of winners had win or placed form at this meeting in another year) and will surely start in the front two in the market which has been a big factor and has 2m4f winning form. I felt his run at Cheltenham, where he ran in snatches, suggested he now wants 2m4f and he looked so good at this meeting last season this looks to be his time of year. I wanted a Ryanair representative as they have won three of the last runnings but POQUELIN is too young and all three winners of this race to run there were beaten so therefore prefer DEEP PURPLE to the winner ALBERTAS RUN who I just do not trust to put two runs back to back. Deep Purple was an encouraging fourth at Cheltenham as flat tracks such as Aintree are really his thing so that was a fine run where he also front ran which made me think they wee half using that race to get him right for this contest. JACK THE GIANT also ran well but was blowing hard afterwards and may just need another run after his long absence. MONETS GARDEN won this race after being beaten in the Ascot Chase so he must have a great chance of winning it again back on his favourite track having won the Ascot Chase so well this season and oldies do not have a bad record in this race at all. FORPADYDEPLASTERER has stamina to prove for me so I can resist him at his shortish odds and no winner of this race was beaten here 12 months earlier which is against SCHINDLERS HUNT, as is the fact he has lost his last 16 Grade 1 races.

JOHN SMITH’S TOPHAM CHASE
An in-running bettor’s dream race down the years as all bar one of the last 30 winners raced prominently from half-way so look out for that if you are watching with Betfair open.

First for the chop are horses aged 11+ as they are 0-87 since 1993 so that is fairly explanatory so I have to be against PRIVATE BE, SILVER BIRCH, OULART and last season’s runner-up OODACHEE. I would also be against horses aged under eight that are not of the more precocious French-bred variety as we have to go back to 1985 to find their last winner so ISN’T THAT LUCKY and ZACHAROVA are also not for me. The other four horses younger than eight are French-breds.

Onto the positive stats and five of the last six winners had run over these fences before which is a plus for PRIVATE BE (5^th last year), OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (led to 2 out in last season’s Grand National), SILVER BIRCH (won Grand National and Becher Chase), BATTLECRY (16^th in Grand National), FRANKIE FIGG (fell last year), ALWAYS WAINING (4^th last year), OODACHEE (6^th and 2^nd last two years), PAK JACK (placed four times in five starts over these fences), BOOMSHAKALAKA (u.r last year) and OULART (3^rd in a Becher Chase). A similar trend has also been in evidence for the Grand National of late with seven of the last nine winners having experienced this unique course before.

The Byrne Group Plate has featured six of the last 15 winners so is the best guide but it has been dropping off a little of late. That said, I feel it is worth noting that IN COMPLIANCE (6th) and PRIVATE BE (12^th), took part this year. Equally importantly if we go back just ten years is last year’s renewal of this race as three winners took part in this race 12 months earlier so OODACHEE (2^nd), ALWAYS WAINING (4^th), PRIVATE BE (5^th), BOOMSHAKALA (U.R) and FRANKIE FIGG (fell when leading at Bechers) meet this criterion.

Two other patterns worth considering are that 3 of the last 6 winners won from out of the handicap and the 11 horses from OODACHEE downwards are running from out of the weights and 12 of the last 17 winners ran as many as seven times earlier in the season.

Trainers to note have been Willie Mullins (SCOTSIRISH, DOONEYS GATE & POMME TIEPY), Nicky Henderson (BOOMSHAKALAKA), Philip Hobbs (PRIVATE BE) and Peter Bowen (ALWAYS WAINING).

SHORT LIST
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT
ALWAYS WAINING
POMME TIEPY
IN COMPLIANCE
PAK JACK

CONCLUSION
Ultra competitive as always but OFFSHORE ACCOUNT is my idea of the most likely winner given the way he zinged around the course in front until two out in last season’s Grand National before fading into eleventh when those front-running exertions finally took their toll. However, over just one circuit a similar round of jumping and racing prominently looks ideal for him and he comes here in great form after a terrific fourth in the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham. ALWAYS WAINING has shown absolutely nothing since finishing fourth in this race last season but has dropped 12lbs as a result so is of each-way interest especially when we consider his trainer won this with Dunbrody Millar who had a similar profile to Always Waining in that he was also fourth 12 months earlier and was specifically trained for the race thereafter. He looks a big each-way price. POMME TIEPY is out of the handicap like three of the last six winners and I also wanted a Willie Mullins horse on side given he has had a winner, second and third in this race from few runners and Pomme Tiepy has the look of a lightly-weighted mare that has been laid out for this so just give her preference over SCOTSIRISH and DOONEYS GATE of the yard’s runners. I also wanted a Festival Plate runner given that has been a great guide down the years and prefer IN COMPLIANCE to PRIVATE BE as he is marginally the younger and definitely the classier and he ran okay when a fair sixth at Cheltenham. Given PAK JACK has placed four times in five runs over these fences, he is overpriced at around 33/1 and of serious place-only betting interest. What he finds off the bridle I am not sure hence the place-only angle more than win but he should give another good account. FRANKIE FIGG is interesting as was in front and going well when falling at Bechers last season but he then fell at Bechers again earlier this season so could have a mental block for the course now.

JOHN SMITH’S SEFTON NOVICES’ HURDLE
This is more like a Grade 3 race than a Grade 1. The two big stats here are that the last 15 winners had all won at least twice over hurdles which is against CANNINGTON BROOK, DOUBLE EXPRESSO, KENNELL HILL, MIDNIGHT TUESDAY, THE GIANT BOLSTER and WAYWARD PRINCE and 16 of the last 17 winners had raced at least four times over timber which is also brings in PHIDIPPIDES and WESTERN LEADER as an unlikely winner on trends.

The Cheltenham Festival has been a fair guide, no more, with six of the last 12 winners taking part which brings in CHAMIREY (3^rd in Pertemps Final), KENNELL HILL (3^rd in Albert Bartlett Hurdle), LORD GENEROUS (fifth in the Martin Pipe H’cap Hurdle) and THE GIANT BOLSTER (6^thin the Neptune only beaten 7l as a 200/1 shot). However, the Bristol Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham’s December fixture has been a better guide though it should be stressed it has had twice as many opportunities to do so as the ‘Albert Bartlett’ was only introduced in 2004. Tell Massini won this year’s race but qualifiers for today are KENNELL HILL (2^nd), LORD GENEROUS (4th) and THE MINACK (6^th after a terrible mistake).

I do prefer a horse with proven stamina for this race as three miles at Grade 1 level sorts the men from the boys and over half of the last 16 winners (ten to be precise) had already won over at least three miles. I also take the view that stronger stamina levels are to be found in older horses so I am not surprised at how poorly four and five-year-olds have fared here. Since the race was inaugurated in 1988, no four-year-old has ever managed to lift the crown and none are declared here though, admittedly, five-year-olds have won two of the last eight renewals but I would say it still pays to side with horses age six and above so MIDNIGHT TUESDAY and THE GIANT BOLSTER are not for me.

Also consider Irish horses that bypassed Cheltenham as both of their most recent winners gave The Festival a miss. WESTERN LEADER and PREMIER VICTORY both qualify on that score.

SHORT LIST
LORD GENEROUS
KENNELL HILL
HOPEFULL START
(WESTERN LEADER)

CONCLUSION
As Irish horses to miss Cheltenham have a decent record here WESTERN LEADER interests me even though he is just one run short of the required four or more hurdles starts but he is very tough and had plenty of experience in six bumpers so that would not worry me about him. Impressive last time when easily beating the other Irish raider PREMIER VICTORY, where he made all over 2m4f, I believe this first step up to three miles will suit him. Again, he missed the pattern there but I like him as he is ultra tough which we want for this race and I like the fact he missed the Festival like other Irish winners of this race. LORD GENEROUS finished fourth in the best guide for this in December and ran well at the Festival so is a contender as is KENNELL HILL for the same reason but he is an incredibly infuriating character who has been known to chuck it in big style so may be more of an each-way than win interest. HOPEFULL START earns his place in the short list as Jonjo O’Neill should have won this race three times in the last seven years but had to settle to two after Wichita Lineman got embroiled in a suicide head-to-head up front. CHAMIREY was one of the few bright sparks for Alan King at Cheltenham and the stable form still worries me. THE MINACK will have his supporters but is a little thin on patterns as is VORAMAR TWO but I respect both.

JOHN SMITH’S SMITHYTHEHORSE.COM HANDICAP HURDLE
Given that novices have won the last four runnings, I will certainly looking to back at least one of QUINZ, QUENTIN COLLONGES, PREDICTIVE, BADDAM, BOB N’YOU and CARSONSTOWN BOY.

Lightly-raced horses during the same season have not fared at all well as all 22 winners of this race had run at least four times earlier in the season which is against KICKS FOR FREE, SPECIAL ENVOY, ECHO POINT, URSIS, CROSS KENNON, BADDAM, HEATHCLIFF, RINGAROSES and WOOLFALL TREASURE.

All but one of the last 14 winners were officially rated between 124 and 134, and six of the last winners ran off BHA marks of between 128 and 131 which is far more interesting but there was no chance of extending that sequence to seven in 2009 as there was a classier field than normal and the bottom weights ran off 132. This season’s 128-131 runners are BADDAM, NAIAD DU MISSELOT, BOB N’YOU, HEATHCLIFF, RINGAROSES, CARSONSTOWN BOY and WOOLFALL TREASURE. As such, ten of the last 11 winners carried under 11st.

I am heavily against five-year-olds in the 3m handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, the Pertemps Final, (just one win in the long history of that race) and they don’t fare much better in this 3m handicap hurdle either suggesting they are not yet physically mature enough for these kind of tests against experienced, hard handicappers having just won it twice in 22 years. Five-year-olds here are DANCING DIK and WOOLFALL TREASURE.

A dozen winners out of 21 all told were in action at Cheltenham, split between five races of which unsurprisingly the Pertemps Final supplied the most winners with five. Three winners contested the Ladbrokes World Hurdle and two the Coral Cup.

Responsible for three winners in the last eight years, Jonjo O’Neill is the trainer with the best record in this event so his RINGAROSES is very interesting.

SHORT LIST
BOB ‘N’ YOU
PREDICTIVE
CARSONSTOWN BOY
(RINGAROSES)

CONCLUSION
Given novices are on a roll winning the last four runnings, I want at least two of them so PREDICTIVE and BOB ‘N’ YOU get the vote. After two wins in staying races the drop back to 2m2f was against Predictive last time so I see him returning to his best now given a test of stamina for his in-form yard whilst Bob ‘N’ You has run into good novices on his last two starts but is back to the scene of his course and distance win and fits into the right ratings bracket as does the Irish novice CARSONSTOWN BOY so am happy to add a third novice to the short list. There is a danger he is coming over to keep their Grand National runner company but he meets the two key stats of rating and novice so is worth a look. QUENTIN COLLONGES is another novice to consider after his good sixth at the Festival. He may be one run shy of ideal but RINGAROSES ticks a lot of other boxes, not least a low weight and being trained by Jonjo O’Neill who has won three of the last eight runnings so he makes the short list.

JOHN SMITH’S MARES BUMPER
Surely it’s only a matter of time before there is one of these races at the Cheltenham Festival. The EBF/Doncaster Bloodstock Sales Mares’ Only Bumper (Listed) at Sandown on Imperial Cup day is the highest class race of its kind before the Grand National Meeting and, although it has yet to supply the winner, the runner-up for two of the last four years has run very well here to finish second again. MIZZURKA won this year’s running from RISAALA and LIFESTYLE and they all run again as does the fifth TREACLE TART.

SHORT LIST
ARAUCARIA
PICKWORTH
RISAALA
LIFESTYLE

CONCLUSION
Keith Reveley’s runners are worth noting having sent out Accordello to finish second at 25/1 in the inaugural running and Valentines Lady to finish third at 33/1 two years ago from just four runners so far so PICKWORTH is worth looking having won her only start. However, it was the Irish that dominated last season supplying the first three home with John Kiely responsible for the winner and runner-up and he runs ARAUCARIA who I imagine will be one of the main fancies after running second to the Champion Bumper favourite Shot From The Hip. RISAALA was second in the best guide to this race behind MIZZURKA but runners-up have a better record here than the winner so Pam Sly’s mare makes the short list as does the third LIFESTYLE who saw too much daylight but will get lots of cover here and Nicky Henderson had the winner and fourth in this race two years ago.