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John Smith’s Grand National – Aintree, 10th April 2010

Forty runners, fearsome fences and 9/1 the field. It could only be the Grand National and once again the nation will be gripped by developments at Aintree on Saturday afternoon. Normally the trends are pretty useful when it comes to this great race so let’s hope fortune is smiling on us this year.

Rounding up all the trends and we basically need to be focusing on horses set to carry less than 11st 5lbs, proven over 3m+ and aged eight or older. Other trends worth considering are previous experience of these fences, reliable jumpers and seriously consider the Irish challenge. Once all of these have been applied I have settled on a shortlist of five that I’m pretty happy with.

SHORTLIST
SNOWY MORNING
ARBOR SUPREME
STATE OF PLAY
HELLO BUD
BACKSTAGE

CONCLUSION
The Willie Mullins pair of SNOWY MORNING and ARBOR SUPREME are first out and both look strong contenders. This will be Snowy Morning’s third appearance in the race, with his best finish being 3rd in 2008. He has warmed up for this race with some creditable efforts over inadequate trips in Ireland and with his previous Aintree form looking rock solid he’s hard to rule out. Stable mate Arbor Supreme looks a fascinating contender. The only slight concern for him would be the drying ground but even taking that into consideration he looks an ideal Aintree type, on paper at least! He already has victories over 3m 5f and 3m 6f on his CV so you’d like to think he’d stay the trip and being Irish trained and bred his credentials look strong. He’s prominent in the betting too which is another positive and looks ideally weighted off 10st 8lb.

STATE OF PLAY ran 4th last year and can be fancied to equal, if not better, that performance this time. Best when fresh, he hasn’t been seen since way back in November so should bring his A-game to table. His previous experience, coupled with 10st 11lb makes him look strong. He finished tired twelve months ago but that’s not a disgrace and he can only be better for the run.

HELLO BUD won the Scottish National last season so he should have no problems with the trip. The drying ground is another positive, along with his 10st 6lb weight. He has an inexperienced jockey onboard which isn’t great but even so. He represents a yard that does well in this race and they’re having a stellar season so far. The fact he is Irish bred is a nice bonus.

BACKSTAGE will be trying to emulate Mon Mome from the perspective of being French bred. French bred animals have a woeful record in the race (from a win perspective) but Venetia Williams’ charge proved the doubters wrong last year and although one swallow doesn’t make a summer it is possible. Gordon Elliot’s runner has long been touted as a possible National horse and having run in last year’s Foxhunter’s he has previous experience over the fearsome obstacles’. He has won three times from nine starts over fences, including one victory over 3m 2f, and is well worth considering at a tasty looking 25/1. His weight of 11st should be ok and a placed effort is well within his compass.

Of the remainder, BIG FELLA THANKS will be popular for Walsh and Nicholls and rightly so after a cracking effort as a novice last year. He should go well, along with CHARACTER BUILDING, BALLYHOLLAND and DON’T PUSH IT.