Paul Jones Private Service – Aintree Day 3

Fri, Apr 9, 2010

I write this copy before the second day’s action has started and I thought Cheltenham was tough for punters! It is possible Aintree is proving even more of a bookie’s benefit looking at the SPs on day one as a crystal ball wouldn’t have found some of those winners. It’s got to turn around for punters soon. With pretty modest action elsewhere from a jumps point of view, I have concentrated my efforts on Day 3 from Aintree, so there won’t be any further copy for this weekend but normal service will be resumed next weekend for Ayr’s Scottish National Meeting.

1.45 JOHN SMITH’S MERSEY NOVICES’ HURDLE
Not a strong trends race to kick off Grand National day but it is certainly worth noting that eight of the last 13 winners recorded a top six finish at the Cheltenham Festival which should mean this goes the way of either the ‘Neptune’ winner PEDDLERS CROSS or Albert Bartlett Hurdle runner-up NAJAF. The latter is trained by Paul Nicholls who has a tremendous record in this race having won it three times from just four runners

I find it hard to believe the aforementioned pair will not dominate the betting and, as 9 of the last 12 winners either started favourite or second-favourite, it is becoming increasingly difficult to make a case out that anything else can win the race. What the remainder have in their favour I suppose is that Cheltenham could have taken the edge off the pair and we saw on Thursday four Festival winners taste defeat but I didn’t feel that PEDDLERS CROSS had a really hard race. If anything NAJAF had a harder race when second in a brutal Albert Bartlett Hurdle.

BYGONES OF BRID and SOLWAY SAM are both 7yos and, although age isn’t a strong factor in this race, there has only been one winner older than six in the last 20 years.

SHORT LIST
NAJAF
PEDDERS CROSS

CONCLUSION
The obvious pair of NAJAF and PEDDLERS CROSS are the clear trends picks I am afraid with Najaf just edging it due to Paul Nicholls’ terrific record in the race. What would slightly concern me about Najaf is that his trainer said straight after he finished second in a very hard Albert Bartlett Hurdle was that he was now finished for the season and when he says that and runs them again their record isn’t the best as first instincts are usually the best. He also raced an extra 3f than Peddlers Cross on more testing ground at Cheltenham and his main rival is also not penalised for winning at Cheltenham as they changed the race conditions this year. It is hard to make a case out for anything else on trends or form.

2.15 MAGHULL NOVICES’ CHASE
Amazingly only one of the 12 runners ran in the Arkle Trophy where OSANA finished third and the last 15 runnings of the Arkle have highlighted the winner of this race so he has to make the short list despite Ireland’s poor record in the race. The Kingmaker Novices’ Chase run at Warwick in February has proven significant as three of its last four winners which then came here have won and the other was second. The winner doesn’t run but JO JOE STAR finished second. Also worth noting is the two-mile novice chase run at Cheltenham in November, which has provided two winners and was won by TATANIANO this time.

This has definitely not been a race to look beyond the obvious as the last 12 winners started in the first three in the betting and I imagine those positions will be filled by OSANA, FRENCH OPERA and TATANIANO. The latter is trained by Paul Nicholls who has won this four times since 1999 (and had five seconds to boot) and three of those winners were also French-breds like Tataniano which bodes well.

Other French-breds in the field are GREEN BELT ELITE and OSANA and there are three German-breds in BERGO, NOBLE ALAN and SCHELM and they too have a great record from few runners with Well Chief and Foreman winning recently. The downside to Osana’s chance is the lack of Irish-trained winners which now stretched back 21 years.

SHORT LIST
TATANIANO
NOBLE ALAN
(OSANA)

CONCLUSION
As the Arkle third OSANA is that race’s only representative he makes the short list despite the lack of Irish winners for the simple reason that the Arkle has produced 15 straight winners of this contest (Foot and Mouth year excepted when there was no Arkle) and he is their only representative. Moreover, the Arkle boost got a boost on Thursday when the only two runners in the Manifesto Chase that contested the Arkle finished first and second. BERGO came close to making the list but I didn’ t want more than three in a novice chase so prefer NOBLE ALAN of the three German-breds as northern-trained novices have a fairly decent record in this race down the years and last season’s Scottish Champion Hurdle winner looks like getting his ground. TATANIANO may not be the novice connections hoped earlier in the season but he won a good guide to this in November, is a French-bred like many recent winners and you can’t knock his trainer’s record in the race. FRENCH OPERA has a big chance in ratings and is also a second-season chaser so has an experience edge but had a hard race at Cheltenham and Henderson’s horses that run well there often leave their race behind them at the Festival for which they are trained to the minute for.

2.50 JOHN SMITH’S DICK FRANCIS AINTREE HURDLE
Not a renewal with a great deal of strength in depth so I fear a little for the trends not holding up as well. The likely favourite is ZAYNAR but he has two patterns to overcome in that he is a five-year-old (the only one in the race) and they have won just three renewals in the last 23 years and he is trained by Nicky Henderson who, for a trainer of his stature, has an awful record in the race being 0-13 and most of those, like Zaynar, were primed for Cheltenham and then ran as if this was an afterthought. PETIT ROBIN also represents Henderson but he ran deplorably in the Ryanair Chase.

A negative pattern for his likely market rival KHYBER KIM is that all 13 Champion Hurdle runners-up have been beaten here. That is probably a statistical blip more than anything else as winners and Champion Hurdle thirds have won this race so of more concern is his lack of form at around this trip as he has not won beyond 2m1f so is not guaranteed to stay whereas just two winners of this had not proven themselves over around this distance and Zaynar’s connections will doubtless want to expose that possible chink in his armour. The Irish have a superb record winning 10 of the last 16 runnings but their pair of MUIRHEAD and WON IN THE DARK are others whose stamina is far from guaranteed having also not won over this kind of trip and QUEWETOO is another that has failed to win over this kind of distance and was soundly thrashed on the only occasion he has tried.

As far as race guides are concerned CESLESTIAL HALO has been running in many of the right ones as he was second in the Boylesports Hurdle in December, a position also filled by three recent Aintree Hurdle winners, he ran fourth in the Champion Hurdle which has been numerically the best guide down the years and also ran in last season’s Aintree Hurdle like four of the last ten winners though those four winners posted a top four finish which he did not after an incredibly hard race when nosed out in the Champion Hurdle.

SHORT LIST
CELESTIAL HALO
SOUFFLEUR

CONCLUSION
On trends, the two likely market leaders ZAYNAR and KHYBER KIM look worth taking on using age, trainer and stamina stats plus whichever starts favourite also has that cross to bear as they don’t have a great record but horses out of the first three in the market certainly do. SOUFFLEUR did us a good turn on Thursday when he was suggested as the horse to back without Big Buck’s (or place-only or each-way) and was the only one to give the long odds-on shot a race finishing second at 16/1 and I am keen on him running another big race here as he survives the main negative trends and has such a good record on this course as does his trainer who has a decent record with horses returning quickly so he makes the short list. I have to say providing all eight stand their ground I am very sweet on his each-way chance again and he may well win it. I worry a little that CELESTIAL HALO may have gone a little sour. He was only five when blowing out in this race last season (and 5yos do have a poor record here) so he could be expected to hold his form better as a 6yo and he enters this race having not had as hard a race when in last season’s Champion Hurdle. It’s a below-par running so has a better chance than last year in my opinion and they have dispensed with the blinkers used for the first time at Cheltenham. It’s not a ringing endorsement but he is the trends horse of the race as survives the big negative trends and has been running in the right races. The Irish have a great record in this race but there are serious stamina doubts over MUIRHEAD (yard also struggling) and WON IN THE DARK.

3.25 JOHN SMITH’S HANDICAP CHASE
This isn’t a particularly strong trends race. Up until 2005 I was arguing in this Guide we must support a horse that finished in the first three last time out as the last 13 winners had such a profile but how quickly trends can turn around as the last four winners all failed to hit the frame on their last start.

It has been marginally preferential that our selection ran at the Cheltenham Festival as seven of the last 13 winners ran there from all manner of races. Festival representatives this time are TATENEN, SEVEN IS MY NUMBER, FROM DAWN TO DUSK and Charlie Swan’s pair of OFFSHORE ACCOUNT and OODACHEE who I imagine have been left in as back up if they fall early on in the Topham. Two of the last three runners ran in the Byrne Group Plate in which FROM DAWN TO DUSK finished third beaten only two lengths.

Sadly FROM DAWN TO DUSK is an 11yo as all bar one of the last 13 winners were aged in single figures which also brings in ALDERBURN, AU COURANT, OFFSHORE COOUNT, WOGAN, MISTER QUASIMODO, DOM D’ORGEVAL and OODACHEE.

It has been a terrific race for punters over the last quarter of a century with either the favourite or second-favourite obliging in over half the runnings which is saying something for a competitive handicap. What I would say however is that the record of the two most-fancied contenders has not been so smart in more recent times failing to win any of the last four runnings which has also seen winners at 22/1 and 20/1 but prior to those two successes, there had been no winner bigger than 16/1 in the previous 27 years.

Keep an eye on novices though as State Of Play hacked up as a novice and others have been placed recently from few to take their chance so CARLITOS and SEVEN IS MY NUMBER appeals in what looks a race full of exposed journeyman handicappers.

SHORT LIST
SEVEN IS MY NUMBER
CARLITOS
(AU COURANT)

CONCLUSION
SEVEN IS MY NUMBER ran a decent fifth in the Jewson at the Festival and this drying ground must give him a good chance of staying the trip. Novices have run well recently in the race so he fits that category as well as running at the Festival which has been another plus so he gets the main vote though I have masses of respect for CARLITOS who could be an exceptionally well handicapped novice racing off just 130 as he has long threatened to be a very good horse until injuries held him back but he looked very useful winning last time and is a huge player here. AU COURANT is older than ideal but that is tempered by the fact that he has only had ten starts in his life so is far from going over the hill and his trainer recently won this race with a ten-year-old and he now has his good ground. He looks to have been laid out for this as was Oedipe for the same yard two years ago.

4.15 JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL
As I have written in the overview in the Guide, there are so many trends for the Grand National that it is highly likely the winner is going to fall down one or two so it is up to you on which you place more importance. To me there are three big trends and then have a look what is left, they being (1) ditch any horse that will carry over 11st 5lbs, (2) ditch horses that have not won over at least three miles and (3) ditch horses younger than eight and, between them, they take out 15 of the 40 runners so, just the simple matter of then finding a winner from the remaining 25!

Starting with the weights stats, as only Red Rum has successfully carried over 11st 5lbs in over 50 years so I have to be against MADISON DU BERLAIS who, in his favour loves flat tracks but he has gone doggy for me. I also have to be against last year’s winners MON MOME off 11st 7lbs and also believe his Gold Cup third flattered him given the way he was ridden to pick up the pieces. JOE LIVELY has 11st 6lbs but he is regressing and a small horse to be carrying such a weight for 4m4f and reserves his best for Cheltenham anyway. The final pair to carry over 11st 5lbs are Dessie Hughes’s duo of BLACK APALACHI and VIC VENTURI and I also think both of those would like more cut than they are likely to get.

Next to go are those than have not won over at least three miles for reasons so obvious I do not need to explain and there has been no such winner since 1970. MADE IN TAIPAN has never won beyond 2m4f (and that was a bumper), PABLO DU CHARMIL has never won beyond 2m2f, BALLYHOLLAND and CONNA CASTLE have never won beyond 2m6f (though they both did win two 3m point-to-points so will leave it up to you whether that counts), MALJIMAR has never won beyond 2m5f but was nailed on the line in the William Hill Trophy over 3m, PIRAYA has never won beyond 2m5f and last year’s mammoth-priced fifth CERIUM has not won beyond 2m3f.

The third big negative concerns age where no Grand National has been aged under eight for 70 years which counts against the fancied pair of THE PACKAGE and TRICKY TRICKSTER as well as giving PIRAYA a second big negative stat to overcome and the Becher Chase fourth PALYPSO DE CREEK also falls down on this factor.

Given we need a prominently-ridden horse on the second circuit as 17 of the last 20 winners were up in the van after the Water Jump as is the case over these fences and was again on Thursday when the 50/1 Fox Hunters winner was never worse than third I want to be against obvious hold up horses like DON’T PUSH IT, KING JOHNS CASTLE, PREISTS LEAP (who needs it testing), CHARACTER BUILDING (has to be delivered almost on the line) and MALJIMAR of those that survive the big negative trends.

To help reduce the field further I suggest we also take on eight-year-olds. I am not totally bought on this as they have won a couple of times in the last 20 years but they should be faring better but that short list needs cutting down so ARBOR SUPREME, BACKSTAGE, CAN’T BUY TIME and BIG FELLA THANKS have to reluctantly go especially as with clear rounds I can see three of those (Can’t Buy Time excluded) being big players. No novice has won since 1958 so ABBEYBRANEY can also go.

Twelve-year-olds have also won twice in the last 20 years but the race is changing rapidly from a slogfest into a classy handicap given what the handicapper is doing so their performances have been dropping off lately so I am happy to oppose ERICS CHARM, OLLIE MAGERN, HELLO BUD and KNOWHERE on that score.

All those negative trends still leaves 14 to whittle down to a final short list so to help achieve that I will oppose French-breds. I know Mon Mome won as a French-bred last year but he was the first to do so for 100 years so I will not be backing NOZIC or MY WILL.

Looking at the key races, last season’s Grand National has been the best guide with five of the last nine winners taking part 12 months earlier. The first six home last season all run again they being MON MOME, COMPLY OR DIE, MY WILL, STATE OF PLAY, CERIUM and BIG FELLA THANKS plus SNOWY MORNING (9^th), PREISTS LEAP (14^th), CAN’T BUY TIME (fell), CLOUDY LANE (u.r), OLLIE MAGERN (fell), BLACK APALACHI (u.r), SILVER BIRCH (fell) and KNOWHERE (p.u).

The fact that seven of the last nine winners had experienced these fences before is a big positive so, in addition to the 14 horses that contested last year’s race we should also add IRISH RAPTOR (winner and runner-up in the Topham), NOZIC (12^th in Topham), BACKSTAGE (8^th in Fox Hunters), ELLERSLIE GEORGE (16^th in Topham), ERICS CHARM (fell in Topham), KING JOHNS CASTLE (2^nd in Grand National), MR POINTMENT (won Becher Chase) and ROYAL ROSA (3^rd in Becher Chase), of those not eliminated on the big three negative stats.

Outside of these fences, the best recent guide has been the Irish National won last season by NICHE MARKET which also featured VIC VENTURI (8^th) and ARBOR SUPREME (14^th). The other races to have featured more than one Grand National in the last decade are the Paddy Power Gold Cup in which BALLYFITZ finished fourth and KNOWHERE pulled up, the Hennessy Gold Cup where Ballyfitz ran again but was pulled up and also featured Niche Market (3^rd), MY WILL (7^th), SNOWY MORNING (8^th), JOE LIVELY (10^th) and STATE OF PLAY (p.u) and the Welsh National which was won by DREAM ALLIANCE and was another race to feature Ballyfitz (5^th) plus NOZIC (9^th) and FLINTOFF (p.u).

Given the Irish have won six of the last 11 runnings they are here in force again with a nine-strong entry if Silver Birch squeezes in from first reserve but the signs are that the handicapper is starting to rate them higher hence their record over the last two years has not been special.

SHORT LIST
NICHE MARKET
STATE OF PLAY
DREAM ALLIANCE
CLOUDY LANE
SNOWY MORNING

CONCLUSION
Twelve horses survive all the negative trends I have mentioned but I will ditch the following seven runners for the given reasons leaving a short list of five; MR POINTMENT has just totally lost the plot and almost refused to race in last year’s Becher Chase stopping on the run-in, FLINTOFF is another with something strange going on his head, BEAT THE BOYS pulls up as often as he finishes, COMPLY OR DIE has surely won his National (you just don’t win two but he is of obvious place-only material), ELLERSLIE GEORGE just looks plain badly handicapped to me having been hit hard for winning in October against class handicappers that weren’t fully wound up, I don’t think IRISH RAPTOR will stay well enough to win and BALLYFITZ may have been running in the main guides but he needs testing ground which he is unlikely to get. That leaves my short list of five where NICHE MARKET is my main fancy as last season’s Irish National winner (which has been a key guide) looks an ideal type for the race being a prominent racer who has been running well all season and jumps great (touch wood) and he also finished third in the highly influential Hennessy Gold Cup. I would have preferred him to have experience over these fences but you can’t have everything. STATE OF PLAY finished fourth last season and is 5lbs lower this time and back down to his Hennessy Gold Cup win mark so his form chance is obvious and he took well to these fences last season and has a best-fresh profile and excels on left-handed flat tracks so is a major each-way player. I have included DREAM ALLIANCE as he won the Welsh National and that has also been a useful guide. More rain would be ideal but the form of the yard is a big plus. CLOUDY LANE finished sixth as favourite two years ago and unseated his rider off top weight last year but he is a smallish horse so carrying 7lbs less is in his favour this year and he also hails from a stable in terrific form of late. SNOWY MORNING could be the best Irish hope and they have a great record over the last decade or so. Third two years ago and ninth last year, he has dropped to an eye-catching mark now and represents Willie Mullins who won this with Hedgehunter. MALJIMAR doesn’t fit the stats but strikes me as decent place-only value as he travels so well but may not fully stay so could cling on for a place.

5.00 JOHN SMITH’S EXTRA SMOOTH HANDICAP HURDLE
This was formerly a great trends race but was changed to an amateur and conditional riders race last season and that threw a spanner in the works as a 9yo won at 66/1 so who knows what will happen now, especially after the unfathomable results of day one!

Five and six-year-olds have won all bar three of the last 19 runnings so DEE EE WILLIAMS, ISSAQUAH, LESLINGTAYLOR, PALOMAR, EUROPEAN DREAM, ROOKERY REBEL, GRANDAD BILL, VEILED APPLAUSE and NORTONTHORPE LAD are not for me.

It’s exactly the same statistic as far as horses that contested the Cheltenham Festival is concerned as just three ran there in the last 19 year so that would appear to be against GHIZAO, STRAVINSKY DANCE, ZANIR, GUS MACRAE and EUROPEAN DREAM.

Horses carrying over 11st are also up against it as they are 0-76 since 1990 so that should be enough to make anyone think twice about backing the top 11 in the weights.

SHORTLIST
NEARBY
BALLYBRIGGAN
DANTARI
ARCTIC WINGS

CONCLUSION
Those negative stats leave just six including MAGNUM FORCE and BLACK COFFEE but I can’t have them all so have gone with the four bottom weights as this has traditionally been a race where the lower the weight the better. NEARBY is most interesting as Philip Hobbs has won this with novices before and won two of the last four runnings and the race at Newbury in which he was second to ARCTIC WINGS last month was a good guide to this handicap in the 1990s. DANTARI looks to have been laid out for this by Evan Williams having a prep on the all-weather last time after the winter off and BALLYBRIGGAN hails from a yard with a good record at this meeting from few runners including when winning this race three years ago.

5.35 JOHN SMITH’S CHAMPION STANDARD NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE
Four winners of this Grade 2 event ran in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper, three in the last decade. All of them had been unplaced at Cheltenham so MEGASTAR (5^th) and DARE ME (6^th) look the class acts of the race.

Jonjo O’Neill has won this with Classic Native and has two seconds too, including Iris’s Gift so his AMUSE ME is respected. Irish trainers have a poor record in this compared to the Weatherbys Champion Bumper at Cheltenham so WHISPERING HILLS is not for me but Alan Swinbank is another name to conjure with having supplied a winner and a runner-up in the last two seasons and he runs ROYAL SWAIN and FIRST ROCK.

Other patterns worth noting are that 15 of the 22 winners, including 11 of the last 15, had their most recent outing in March which is a high strike rate and 18 of the 22 winners had run no more than three times beforehand. Last season’s 66/1 winner Sitting Tennant broke both of those stats.

SHORT LIST
DARE ME
MEGASTAR
ROYAL SWAIN
(AMUSE ME)

CONCLUSION
As the Weatherbys Champion Bumper has been a decent guide, for those unplaced in that contest anyway, I have to include the fifth and sixth MEGASTAR and DARE ME. Given the good form of the Hobbs yard I have a marginal preference for Dare Me. ROYAL SWAIN looks the pick of the Swinbank pair and AMUSE ME was so impressive winning at Musselburgh on his debut that J P McManus snapped him up and sent him to Jonjo O’Neill whose record in this race catches the eye.