Paul Jones Private Service – NH Betting Guide – 17th Apr 10

Fri, Apr 16, 2010

Coral Scottish Grand National – Ayr, Saturday 17th April

A nice big field to get our teeth into here and with an average SP of 20/1 over the year’s there is every chance we can land ourselves a big priced winner.

Over the year’s eight-year-olds have held sway, winning seven of the last twelve and they look to have a strong representation this year with the likes of top weight KILLYGLEN and Racing Post Chase winner RAZOR ROYALE. If you couple this age group with those horses rated 130-149 (9 of the last 10 winners) you would be well on the way to narrowing down the field. Other trends to consider are the fact that 9 of the last 10 winners had fallen or unseated less than twice previously over fences while 7 of the last 10 achieved a top 3 finish last time out.

SHORTLIST
AURORAS ENCORE
POKER DE SIVOLA
(RAZOR ROYALE)
(SCOTS DRAGOON)
(OUT THE BLACK)

CONCLUSION
The strongest trends performance comes from the Sue Smith trained AURORAS ENCORE. A previous winner at the track he warmed up for this with a solid second place finish over hurdles at Haydock and although the 4m ½f trip does pose a question mark he is a winner over 3m 1f and he stayed on really well when landing that so there is every chance he’ll be just fine. As an eight-year-old, rated 139 and a second season chaser who has fallen just the once in his chase career he ticks plenty of boxes.

POKER DE SIVOLA was successful at Cheltenham last time out and although he had a hard race that day his trainer Ferdy Murphy knows what it takes to win here, as a record of 3-1-11 would indicate. Another second season he is nicely rated on 138 and with just the one previous mishap over fences he looks a solid option.

Racing Post Chase winner RAZOR ROYALE misses that all important top 3 finish last time out but makes it on to the shortlist on account of hitting every other box. He’s the right age, the right rating and has fallen just once. His trainer won this twelve months ago with Hello Bud so hails from a yard that knows the time of day. Also his yard is having a season to remember so another big race win would come as no surprise.

Nicky Henderson doesn’t have the greatest record in this race but SCOTS DRAGOON could be about to change all that. He runs from slightly out the handicap here but his very talented rider helps to readdress the balance and off his featherweight looks a big contender. Another who is the right age, he was successful last time out (easily winning at Sandown over 3m 1f) and is yet to either fall or unseat.

The final place on the shortlist goes to the Philip Hobs trained OUT THE BLACK. He ran third in the race twelve months ago and runs from pretty much an identical mark. His trainer knows how to get one in the mix (0-5-12) and although perhaps a little out of left field he’ll certainly handle both the trip and ground.

The others to catch the eye would be MEANUS DANDY for Paul Nicholls and FASSEL, although in terms of the later I do think he might be best fresh and so a break of 30 days since Cheltenham may not be enough. On the other hand he is a bit of a monkey so you never know!