Paul Jones Private Service – Punchestown Day 1

Mon, Apr 19, 2010

After the first day of Aintree I felt that meeting was going to be as tough as Cheltenham but we recovered over the next two days and I know some of you got far juicier prices than the eventual SP of 22/1 for Always Waining in the Topham Trophy. Onto Punchestown, where I will cover all five days and every race so not just those that appeared in the Aintree & Punchestown Festivals Betting Guide.

3.40 KILDARE HUNT SEAN BREEN MEMORIAL CHASE

The first of three cross-country races of the meeting where WEDGER PARDY is gunning for a third straight win in the race having won by 14 lengths and 6 lengths in 2008 and 2009 so you can forget all his other runs this season, this is his only goal from one year to the next and is likely to be priced accordingly. Enda Bolger is, of course, the king of these banks races and won this race in 2003 and 2006 (both ridden by J T McNamara who is on OUTLAW PETE) and he runs four here including the 2008 runner-up CHANCE YOUR ARM.

SHORT LIST

WEDGER PARDY

OUTLAW PETE

ZEST FOR LIFE

CONCLUSION

Hard not to include WEDGER PARTY in the short list really after winning this race for the last two years and Ted Walsh has jocked up his daughter, Katie, who won on him for the second of those two wins. Given J T McNamara rides OUTLAW PETE of the Bolger quartet (of which three are owned by J P McManus), I have to conclude he is their best hope especially as he rode the yard’s two most recent winners of this race. His last run wasn’t much cop on a park course but these Bolger horses improve masses for switching to the banks so I would read little into that and he has to be a big player. Nina Carberry rides the non McManus-owned runner of the Bolger quartet and I would have thought she is likely to have been given their second-most fancied runner hence the inclusion of ZEST FOR LIFE. It is likely these three could fill the first three positions in the market but I make no apologies for that as these races are so uncompetitive and usually dominated by the market leaders so also consider exactas and trifectas perming these three. Wedger Pardy if pressed for the winner.

4.20 EVENING HERALD CHAMPION HURDLE

Short-priced favourite is the Aintree winner GENERAL MILLER who caught the ‘Supreme’ winner Menorah late on to win the Top Novices’ Hurdle but this hasn’t been a great race for the Brits as the home team have won the last 12 runnings so, at around 5/4, he looks on the short side. In General Miller’s favour however is that six of the last seven favourites have obliged, if he does start favourite that is. Given the last 13 winners were aged less than seven, I am cool on BARON DE’L.

SWEEPS HILL had an off day back in fourth in the Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle (and had an even worse off day next time) and he represents that race following a 114-day break to hopefully get him back right again as he is a class act on his day as he showed when he won the Grade 1 Bumper at this meeting last season on the disqualification of Dunguib. In all, seven of the last ten winners of this race ran in the Royal Bond Hurdle.

The next best guide is the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in which four of the last eight winners ran (three of them finishing first or second). Representatives this season are Willie Mullins’ pair of FLAT OUT (5th) and BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN (10th). The race name may have changed since the Guide was published but the latter then contested the same Grade 2 novice hurdle at Fairyhouse which has featured a couple of fairly recent winners of this race. Both of those actually won at Fairyhouse whereas Blackstairmountain was second but some may say he was the moral winner as he was caught in the dying strides having seemingly won the race with a nice change of pace but he probably went too soon in the heavy ground and Luska Lad fought back to deny him. Expect him to delivered later this time.

Given that all but one of the last 13 winners failed to finish first or second last time out, I would therefore prefer Blackstairmountain to FLAT OUT of the Mullins pair whilst other horses not to fill one of those positions on their last start are BARON DE’L, GREY SOLDIER, LOOSEN MY LOAD and SWEEPS HILL.

SHORT LIST

BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN

(SWEEPS HILL)

SOME SLAM

CONCLUSION

Given this has been an Irish benefit I have to take on the likely favourite GENERAL MILLER at short odds even if favourites have a very good recent record. FLAT OUT failed to finish in the first two last time out which has been a big stat so I will take him on as well and prefer his stablemate BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN who really should have won the Grade 2 race at Fairyhouse over Easter but committed too early and he also contested the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and they have been two of the three key guides. He showed a nice turn of foot that day before being reeled in by the ultra-tough Luska Lad on heavy ground so you would have to suspect he will appreciate this better ground much more. SWEEPS HILL is a big danger if back to his best. He didn’t make the frame last time out like recent winners but I think there was something very wrong with him at the time as that was his second poor run on the spin and he now returns following a 114-day absence in which time you would hope they should have found the problem. His inclusion is primarily because he was considered classy enough to be second favourite for the Royal Bond Hurdle behind Dunguib (plus he won at this meeting last year which I like) and the last five winners of this race contested that Grade 1 event back in early December. SOME SLAM’s inclusion is mainly through getting over the negative patterns rather than having positive trends in his favour. He improved markedly from his first hurdles start to his second when easily winning a maiden hurdle at Naas last time out and his bumper race form would give him an outside chance. Tom Mullins also had Some Present and another horse in at the five-day stage but has elected to rely on Some Slam.

4.55 THREE.IE HANDICAP HURDLE

Just the 28 runners of Grade C standard. Good luck! Where do we start? I am not much comforted either to note that the last seven winners all started at double-figure prices. Only one of the last ten winners has carried over 10st 7lbs so maybe we should be looking to the bottom half of the handicap and it also appears to be a race for established handicappers as five of the last six winners were aged seven or older.

SHORT LIST

TAKESTAN

SPRING THE QUEUE

PENNY’S BILL

(PRINCE OF FORWARDS)

CONCLUSION

Given the age and weight stats I suggest we look to horses aged seven or older set to carry 10st 6lbs or less but that still leaves 11 horses. Of those 11 I would look twice at TAKESTAN who has a good turn of foot so this might be his kind of ground to show it having had his speed blunted on bad ground this winter and strikes me as just the type to pop up at a decent price sometime for his bonkers trainer. He is a course winner to boot when he was impressive here back in the autumn. As for the others for the shortlist, I have tentatively gone for SPRING THE QUEUE who likes these big-field handicaps (won a Pierse Hurdle) and is no back number at the age of eleven plus another former Pierse Hurdle winner in PENNY’S BILL for the same reason in addition to PRINCE OF FORWARDS who is younger than I ideally want at six but his canny trainer has won this race twice in the last ten years so may well have been preparing him for this prize.

5.30 GOFFS LAND ROVER BUMPER

The first of six bumpers at the meeting and this is the one restricted to horses sold through Goffs sales and has been won by a future Champion Hurdler and Champion Chaser in recent seasons (Hardy Eustace and Newmill). Willie Mullins has won two of the last four runnings and there has been a total turnaround in terms of age as four-year-olds have won the last four renewals whereas five-year-old had won the previous five runnings.

SHORT LIST

EARLS QUARTER

DOUBLE DOUBLE

SIZING IRELAND

CONCLUSION

Given the recent good record of four-year-olds and Willie Mullins I will include EARLS QUARTER who qualifies on both counts though lack of experience, this is his debut, is clearly not a positive though I am not sure that matters too much with Mullins’ bumper horses. SIZING IRELAND is also interesting as Henderson brought over Quantitativeeasing to win a bumper at this meeting last year and Sizing Ireland is a four-year-old. Sent off an odds-on to win at Huntingdon two weeks ago, he could only finish third but it’s interesting they have decided to come over given that and must feel that run has done him the world of good. Perhaps the sharp nature of the track was also against him and he will prefer this stiffer test. Noel Meade could have a couple of interesting 4yo debutants in DYLAN ROSS and TINABIANCA but the form of the yard continues to be a big worry so I will go with I suppose the obvious one in DOUBLE DOUBLE to complete the short list as he is the only winner in the field and is a 4yo like the last four winners and he surprised many winning at Naas easily at 20/1 on his only outing.

6.05 BOYLESPORTS.COM CHAMPION CHASE

A race in which I can find no real negative trends (except maybe only one of the last 11 winners did not start in the first three in the betting) so I shall concentrate on the positive patterns starting with the market and, given that stat, we should really be concentrating on KALAHARI KING, TWIST MAGIC, SIZING EUROPE and FORPADYDEPLASTERER as it is tight between that quartet at the head of the market clear of GOLDEN SILVER who won well off top weight at Fairyhouse last time when he had his preferred heavy ground but he got found out on the fastest ground of the Cheltenham Festival and it looks like being Good ground for this race. The market stats would therefore also put me off BARKER, SCOTSIRISH, SALFORD CITY, CORNAS, DON’T BE BITIN and NATAL.

Looking at the key races which have been the Champion Chase, Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler Chase and just one horse ran in all three – TWIST MAGIC. Paul Nicholls’ former winner of this race hated Cheltenham yet again but, put him on a right-handed track in smallish fields and he is out of the top drawer as he showed when easily beating FORPADYDEPLASTERER in the Tingle Creek (three recent winners have gone on to win here) and the Victor Chandler. I do believe racing right-handed is now the key to him as he is also trained by Paul Nicholls who has won the last two runnings of the race (and Brits 6 of the last 12), is a French-bred like the last three winners and likes to race prominently which has been evident in 9 of the last 11 winners and he is eight years of age or older like 11 of the last 13 winners so he will be the trends horse for sure.

FORPADYDEPLASTERER finished second in two of those three key guides, in fact he has finished second in eight of his last nine starts and some will argue (myself included) that should have been 9 straight runner-up positions as KALAHARI KING really should have won the Arkle with a better ride narrowly failing coming from so far back. Kalahari King has been trained with a spring campaign in mind hence him running in just one of the three key guides when third in the Champion Chase and both of this pair have their favoured ground today.

SHORT LIST

TWIST MAGIC

KALAHARI KING

CONCLUSION

I am not considering anything out of the big four in the betting on SP stats and, although Viking Flagship won this race as a novice 17 years ago, which is what the Arkle winner SIZING EUROPE is trying to achieve, he is a novice so has missed out on running in the big key guides so, although I am a fan of the horse and the Arkle form has received boosts already, I reluctantly have to let him go for a trends-based service. Of the other three towards the betting in a race where no winner has returned at bigger than 8/1 since it became a level weights Grade 1 race, TWIST MAGIC fits the profile ideally being the right age, hailing from GB and the right stable in particular, being a French-bred and a prominent racer plus, most importantly, he has contested all three of the main guides impressively winning two of them. I do believe right-handed tracks are important to him and he won this race two years ago after disappointing in the Champion Chase so a poor run there last time maybe should be overlooked as he just doesn’t get on with the place. KALAHARI KING is given the edge over FORPADYDEPLASTERER as the second horse on the short list as he is also British-trained and a French-bred and he can actually win races whereas Forpadydeplasterer loves finishing second (8 times in last 9 starts) and I didn’t think he put it all in on the run-in at Aintree last time when Kalahari King, who has won at this meeting before which I like (so has Twist Magic), took an early tumble.

6.40 GROWISE CHAMPION NOVICE CHASE

This equivalent race to the RSA Chase does not feature in the trends guide as this is just its fourth running as a Grade 1 event.

SHORT LIST

THE MIDNIGHT CLUB

CHINA ROCK

CONCLUSION

Dessie Hughes took this race last season with Rare Bob and his LENABANE is made in the same mould but I fancied him at Aintree where he let me down and there did not appear to be any excuses and this comes just 11 days later so he wouldn’t be for me this time. My old ‘friend’ ZAARITO looked like winning last time in the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse until falling yet again (the fourth time in seven chase starts). There is no doubt he has a decent chance if his confidence hasn’t been affected but you have to worry about his jumping plus that race at Fairyhouse two weeks ago was run on atrocious ground and his fall was in the home straight so he would have known he had a race so I would fear he could lack the freshness for today. JADANLI won that race in awful ground so I find it hard to believe he will not suffer some reaction. Similarly, WHATUTHINK would be made of iron if he can win this after running third in an attritional Irish National just two weeks ago (though Rare Bob ran fourth there before winning this race last season but, crucially, not in heavy ground). I think the safest pair are the Jewson third and fourth THE MIDNIGHT CLUB and CHINA ROCK. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the latter reversed placings as he shaped like the better horse during the race though raced too keenly but he did sweat up beforehand so I believe his run can be marked up. That said, I believe The Midnight Club would have found 2m5f on that occasion on the sharp side so his run can also be upgraded and he shapes like a real stayer having been third a close-up third to Weapons Amnesty in the previous season’s Albert Bartlett so this 3m1f can bring around improvement. He also won at this meeting last season which I have mentioned before is something I really like. Regards SADDLERS STORM who fell when favourite for the Irish National, I just feel this trip at this level is on the short side for him and an afterthought.

7.15 EQUITREK FINLAY FORD INH FLAT RACE

This is the bumper for four-year-old maidens and as only 9 of the 28 have run, I don’t have a Scooby-doo what will win this and I doubt few others have either. Nicky Henderson sent Quantitativeeasing over to win this on his racecourse debut last season but there are no British raiders this time.

SHORT LIST

JET MASTER

GREENBELT STAR

NOOSA

CONCLUSION

The strongest piece of bumper form of the nine of the 28 to have run comes from Willie Mullins’ LAGANBANK who was odds-on favourite at Thurles on his only start and finished third of eight though the second let the form down next time so there must be every chance the newcomers could take this. Pure guesswork but I will bang in JET MASTER as I have a lot of time for John Kiely’s bumper runners. Jessica Harrington is unleashing three newcomers of which GREENBELT STAR looks the marginal pick on jockey bookings. Of those with experience I narrowly prefer NOOSA who was third behind Double Double on her last start though shaped like the second best horse before losing second close home and that form could look a whole lot better if Double Double runs very well in the Goffs Bumper earlier in the card. Go easy.