Paul Jones Private Service – Punchestown Day 2

Tue, Apr 20, 2010

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3.40 MARTINSTOWN OPPORTUNITY SERIES FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE

A lovely 25-runner handicap hurdle featuring moderate horses to kick off so go easy.

SHORT LIST

SIVOTA

RAHAN DE MARCIGNY

KENNELL BRIDGE

COLISEUM

CONCLUSION

If Noel Meade’s horses were in better form I would be keener on RAHAN DE MARCIGNY who has caught the eye more than once since J P McManus bought him out of France and his owner sponsors this race so those facts combined would make him of interest here. Plus I do like a J P handicapper coming off a break – 73 days in his case. SIVOTA is still a maiden after eight starts over hurdles but did not run badly in the Fred Winter a couple of seasons back and has the look of an attractively weighted horse if he can find his form again for Willie Mullins and that is the key as he switched to Mullins before his last start which was a much improved effort after he was well backed at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting before finishing fourth which makes him the most interesting contender here for me. KENNELL BRIDGE can be expected to improve for his belated seasonal debut last month where he shaped okay when sixth over fences but is now sent back hurdling by Colm Murphy and has won at the course before so he could have been prepping for this. COLISEUM has a definite chance on his fifth to the classy Jumbo Rio back in the autumn. Only raced once since then when second following a layoff, he can be expected to improve for that comeback run and make his presence felt.

4.20 LOUIS FITZGERALD HOTEL HURDLE

Not an especially inspiring 4yo hurdle and there is plenty of dross in this for sure so maybe it is not as competitive as first appears.

SHORT LIST

SON AMIX

DOCTOR DEEJAY

SOUNDS OF JUPITER

CONCLUSION

SOUNDS OF JUPITER returns after an 80-day absence comfortably beating NED OF THE HILL in a maiden hurdle after filling the runner-up berth on his previous two hurdles starts. He is worse off at the weights but won a shade cosily so can confirm placings. However, he will need to improve to beat SON AMIX who finished fourth in the Fred Winter Hurdle at Cheltenham and that form received a boost when the third and first fought out the Grade 1 Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree. DOCTOR DEEJAY was back in tenth that day and has since run third in a Grade 3 and is tough so he could easily make his presence felt again especially on his second to Pittoni on this course which was probably a personal best so Punchestown could bring the best out of him.

4.55 MADRA IRISH DOG FOOD NOVICES’ HURDLE

Great sponsor name, not so great a race. Casey Jones and The Midnight Club have won two of the last three runnings so a pretty decent type is likely to be required.

SHORT LIST

MAGNANIMITY

ARABELLA BOY

CONCLUSION

RHYL ACCORD had a big reputation at the start of the season (started 11/10 for a Grade 1 in mid-December) but it has been disappointment after disappointment for him this campaign. Better ground could signal a better effort but I would rather look to in-form horses. MAGNANIMITY is one such horse and he had Rhyl Accord back in fifth when winning a weak Grade 2 at Fairyhouse two weeks ago where he also had RIGOUR BACK BOB and DEFINITIVE EDGE held in fourth and sixth. A reproduction of that run should be good enough again. ARABELLA BOY looks a bigger threat on his second to Torphichen before Christmas and he may have needed the run when third to Cousin Vinny last time following over three months off.

5.30 PUNCHESTOWN GUINNESS GOLD CUP

The Gold Cup runner-up DENMAN is going to start at a warm order to become the eighth winning favourite in the last nine years but going right-handed does concern me somewhat as all his best form is the other way round. If successful, he will also be the sixth winner in the last seven years that also contested the Gold Cup where he holds COOLDINE who finished a leg-weary fifth.

Denman has won in Ireland of course, the Lexus Chase (left-handed again), but he hasn’t run at Punchestown before and previous winning track experience has been important as far as the home team are concerned as the last seven Irish-trained winners of this race had won here before which is against COOLDINE, FOLLOW THE PLAN and SIEGEMASTER. The other six Irish contenders have all won at Punchestown before. Many of those seven course winners contested the Grade 1 John Durkan Chase in December over 2m4f with six of the last 11 Guinness Gold Cup winners running in that race which was won this season by JONCOL where J’Y VOLE was amongst his victims. Joncol was only third in the Lexus Chase where he shaped as the best horse in the race and that is another key guide as three of the last seven winners also ran in that race.

A race for proven class acts with six of the last eight being Grade 1 winners, that would be against the British-trained pair of BARBERS SHOP and PLANET OF SOUND who both also have serious stamina questions to answer plus another negative for SIEGEMASTER.

A stat against DENMAN however is that he is a ten-year-old and five of the last six winners were no older than eight which also counts against WAR OF ATTRITION who is reportedly having his final race before retirement and last year’s easy winner NOTRE PERE. Three things are very different for Notre Pere 12 months on – (1) he is out of form, (2) this is a much better race and (3) he had his testing ground in this race last year but will not this time around. It would be churlish to dismiss horses as young as eight but even younger horses have held sway which is a positive for JONCOL and J’VOLE.

SHORT LIST

JONCOL

J’Y VOLE

(DENMAN)

CONCLUSION

RARE BOB and TRANQUIL SEA survive the negative trends but are short on positive patterns so I have let them pass in place of DENMAN despite him being older than ideal but he does fit the three main patterns of Grade 1 winner, favourite and ran in the Gold Cup so deserves his place in the short list, though mainly for saving purposes as JONCOL, trained for the race and on an upward curve, looks the one for me. The winner of the John Durkan Chase and third in the Lexus Chase, they have been the key two Irish guides for this race and Joncol should really have won them both but for committing too early in the latter event and then put the record straight in the Irish Hennessy. Rested since that victory in February and trained for this race unlike Denman and company, he has improved with every start this season and looks the most likely of the field to keep his form at this stage of the year and can be the one to take advantage if Denman found his Gold Cup exertions having an adverse effect on him. J’Y VOLE looks the best outsider. A winner at this meeting last season and a possible improver for the step up in trip, she was third in the Ryanair Chase and the winner franked that form winning the Melling Chase.

6.05 PADDY POWER CHAMPION NH FLAT RACE

Since 1992, ten horses to pass the post in front here ran in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper at Cheltenham so that race has to be the first port of call and featured TAVERN TIMES (4th), UP OU THAT (13th), HIDDEN UNIVERSE (19th) and SHOT FROM THE HIP (20th). Of those winners, eight finished in the first six which means Tavern Times would appear to have the strongest claims of that quartet. The form of that race has already received a big boost when the fifth and sixth pulled well clear of their rivals to fight out the finish of the Grade 2 bumper at the Aintree Festival.

A four-year-old may have won the Weatherbys Champion Bumper (only the second to do so) and they have also struggled here winning just once so I have to be against HIDDEN UNIVERSE and MUNSAAB. The latter, however, is the only unbeaten runner in the line up and unbeaten horses have won three of the last four runnings. He won his only start over course and distance.

Over the last 11 years, it has been the lighter-raced bumper horses that have come through with nine of those winners having had no more than three runs and they were both trained by Noel Meade which puts me off ANDLAU, AUGHNACURRAVEEL, BUBBLY BRUCE, ENDLESS INTRIGUE, OLD CHARM, TORNEDO SHAY, WHISPERING HILLS, BOHOLA LADY and OILILY who have had four or more bumper starts.

Noel Meade has the best record but is short on quality bumper horses this season so is not represented so Willie Mullins has the strongest record of trainers with entries and he runs UP OU THAT who won his bumper debut here so I can see why Mullins has chosen him to represent him of his many good bumper horses.

SHORT LIST

TAVERN TIMES

CAUGHT BY WITNESS

SHOT FROM THE HIP

UP OU THAT

CONCLUSION

Tom Mullins’ TAVERN TIMES was one of Ireland’s brightest hopes for the Cheltenham Bumper and he only found one Irish horse too good for him but two Brits finished in front of both of those so the Irish do not look as strong this season. That said, there are no Brits in this line up bar Milton Harris’ CAUGHT BY WITNESS so he makes the list (British horses surprisingly have a better record in this race than at Cheltenham) and he won easily last time after finishing second to Cue Card on his debut who bolted up at the Festival. The Brits also dominated the Aintree bumper so look to have the upper hand this season. As for Tavern Times, his fourth place at Cheltenham has to be seriously respected as eight winners of this race have recorded a top-six slot at the Festival and I like the fact he has only had two runs like four recent winners of this race. OLD MCDONALD came close to making the list as he was only three lengths behind Tavern Times before winning at Ludlow but as the Cheltenham form has been seriously franked already by the fifth and sixth who came clear in the Grade 2 race at Aintee, I will stay there and include SHOT FROM THE HIP and UP OU THAT. The former was backed into a ridiculous 3/1 at the off but saw too much daylight which lit him up and he used too much of himself so ignore his finishing position and expect him to buried in here. He previously looked very good at Leopardstown. Up Ou That also makes the shortlist as he ran okay at Cheltenham and won his debut here and Willie Mullins has chosen him to represent him in Ireland’s premier bumper race from many possible which has to say something about the regard in which he is held.

6.40 IRISH DAILY MIRROR HANDICAP CHASE

This race has changed its name since the Guide was published from the Motivate Challenge Chase (pages 86-88 if you want to follow it).

Firstly, I will be opposing IN COMPLIANCE as horses carrying over 11st 6lbs have not won for 12 years. Shame he is the only one. Secondly, this has been a race to ignore recent form as just one winner in the last decade finished in the first three last time out so JAYO, FINGER ONTHE PULSE, THE SAWYER, SKY’S THE LIMIT, JAAMID, DUERS, FANTOCHE, CALLOW LAKE, CONEM, POLMAR, SIZING AMERICA, HAIRY MOLLY and THE BOSSES NEPHEW should not be forgotten just as they failed to trouble the judge last time.

Novices always catch my eye in spring handicaps and they have won this race five times in the last 11 years and SIZING AMERICA is the only novice this time around.

As for trainers, Willie Mullins has the been the king in recent seasons winning three of the last five runnings and runs JAYO and POLMAR but also note STEWARTS HOUSE for the Arthur Moore yard that won this race two years ago.

SHORT LIST

SIZING AMERICA

STEWARTS HOUSE

(JAYO)

CONCLUSION

Being the only novice in a handicap where they have a very good recent record I have to include SIZING AMERICA. He has only raced on Good ground in his career so could easily find improvement for it and that was at this meeting two years ago when a fair sixth in a big field handicap hurdle. STEWARTS HOUSE is bang in form, nicely weighted and represents shrewd connections who won this race two years ago so has to be considered. JAYO’s inclusion is principally trainer-trends based as the yard have won three of the last five runnings and he won at this meeting last season which I like. He is not one on weight stats but I personally feel a mark of 141 could under-rate his ability when it all clicks together.

7.15 BRIAN PRICE MEMORIAL CHAMPION HUNTERS’ CHASE

Ireland’s premier hunter chase and therefore I am not surprised that more recent winners than not also contested the Christie’s Foxhunters at Cheltenham. Representatives this season are KILTY STORM (2nd), ON THE NET (5th), DUN DOIRE (7th) and SOUTHWESTERN (p.u).

SHORT LIST

KILTY STORM

ON THE NET

DUN DOIRE

CONCLUSION

I will concentrate on Cheltenham form as that has proved the most important for this race in recent seasons. KILTY STORM is the form horse on his second to Baby Run at Cheltenham and also won Ireland’s second most prestigious hunter chase on Irish Hennessy day when he easily beat Agus A Vic (was considered to be the best Irish hunter in training at the time) so his chance is there for all to see. The slight concern is whether he is as effective on Good ground as he is with cut but he is uncomplicated, bang in form and has the best recent form so is the one to beat. ON THE NET finished fifth at Cheltenham and has won a point-to-point since (also won his two points before the Festival) so is another to consider and I would also respect DUN DOIRE as well who finished seventh after a bad error put him on the back foot or otherwise would have been closer and Nina Carberry keeps the ride. HI CLOY and FORGET THE PAST are both former Grade 1 horses but have been getting beaten in point-to-points. SOUTHWESTERN may have won this race two years ago but for a late fall but he looks past his best now as does former winner of this race WHYSO MAYBE who is now a 13-year-old.