Paul Jones Midweek Ante Post Service – 21st Apr 10

Wed, Apr 21, 2010

The Bet365 Gold Cup closes the season at Sandown on Saturday and, just like seemingly every other major staying handicap chase this season, it looks devilishly competitive. With Punchestown taking centre stage this week, there has been little press comment about the race so we are guessing to an extent which horses will have their entry confirmed at the overnight stage. As such, I will leave it and look to get involved on the day though here are my early thoughts.

Just Amazing heads the market after his easy win at Cheltenham last week by 19 lengths following a winter break. The Paul Nicholls stable headed to the Scottish National with a novice with a similar profile in Meanus Dandy last week and he found that too competitive and I just feel he is short enough at present in what will be a big field around these trappy fences as he only had three rivals to beat after all at Cheltenham.

Another novice in The Package is currently second favourite (albeit a second-season novice) and he was a mid-way casualty in the Grand National but I didn’t feel he was enjoying it all that much. The key to his chance that day was that he was well handicapped being 6lbs well in but that isn’t the case here as his mark has been re-evaluated in time for this contest. I respect the record of the Pipe yard in this race but I felt he lost his best chance of landing a big one this spring at the Festival when he narrowly failed to reel in Chief Dan George in the William Hill Trophy much to my chagrin. I don’t know if he is an intended runner but his stablemate Piraya is just the type of quirky horse who could go close or totally bomb out so one of the more intriguing 33/1 shots. His owner with this race with Puntal a few years back.

Of the novices it is Fairoak Lad that makes most appeal to me. Philip Hobbs’ seven-year-old was thought good enough to take on Long Run in the Grade 1 Feltham Chase on Boxing Day on ground softer than he would have liked and he returned in mid-March to win well at Wincanton and looks to have been trained specifically for this race by the same yard that has won recent renewals with Monkerhostin and Lacdoudal who also look likely to take their chance but are surely too old now. Back on likely Good ground here, he is open to more improvement than most on just his fifth chase start.

Sandown specialist Erics Charm has run well in this race before and has place claims given his current rude bill of health but he was simply travelling too fast when falling at the first fence in the Grand National. I just don’t have it in me to back 12-year-olds for competitive races though. Kilcrea Castle was all the rage for the Racing Post Chase but ultimately disappointed finishing eighth. That run needs to be forgiven but, if you have it in you to do so, Emma Lavelle’s eight-year-old has prospects on his previous run when third in a decent handicap chase at Ascot and has never run on decent ground since winning a point-to-point on his debut so could take off on this surface. He is interesting as is Can’t Buy Time for the O’Neill-McManus and probably McCoy team that have won two big staying handicap chases in recent weeks as he is a course winner. For the second year running he fell in the Grand National but it was on the first circuit so he didn’t have a hard race and, judging by the way he travelled for 3m6f of the 4m NH Chase last season before the petrol ran out, this 3m5f trip should be ideal for him. Hoo La Baloo runs the track well and was third two years ago and fell when favourite last year but surely there are better handicapped horses.

Burren Legend looks like he will have to race from 10lbs out of the handicap but this race has a history of horses running from wrong at the weights and he is in top form right now and Richard Rowe has trained the winner before so he is not one I am ruling out even if he is 33/1 and neither is Good-ground specialist Lothian Falcon who was trained for the Scottish National but only got as far as the fourth fence and wasn’t beaten far when fifth in this race two years.

Of some of the others Air Force One (fell last two starts), Killyglen (pulled up) and Nostringsattached (pulled up last time) have plenty to prove right now, Hello Bud would have to recover quickly from his bold run in the Grand National, The Tother One looks weighted up to the hilt, Church Island never wins, Le Beau Bai would prefer softer ground and Massasoit doesn’t like going through the pain barrier.

Tough, and with running plans up in the air I would rather leave it at this stage but Fairoak Lad and Can’t Buy Time catch the eye of those for those up to 16/1 with Piraya and Burren Legend being two 33/1 shots I could see outrunning their odds if given their chance.