Paul Jones Private Service – Punchestown Day 3

Wed, Apr 21, 2010

3.40 AON INSURANCES HURDLE

A big-field 2m4f conditions hurdle kicks off proceedings and although the race conditions suit the second-season hurdler AINAMA mainly taking on novices he is somewhat of a talking horse that repeatedly fails to deliver the goods so despite being the highest rated hurdler the field, he could help make the market.

SHORT LIST

UNIVERSAL TRUTH

QUADRILLON

CUCHULAINS SON

CONCLUSION

AINAMA could dot up meeting these rivals on better terms than if it were a handicap and it would be no great surprise if he did and the Brits won this two years ago with Kalahari King but he keeps flattering to deceive have travelled well in his races so, although he is the most likely winner as he is a 12lbs better horse than any of his rivals, better value probably lies elsewhere. He won’t be far away so it’s all a question of price with him. The interesting one is Dermot Weld’s UNIVERSAL TRUTH who has only had one start over hurdles and was a well beaten third but he was considered a top class bumper horse at Rosewell and finsihed third in the Grade 1 event at this meeting last season before winning on the Flat at Leopardstown. It could be this is a run before a Flat campaign but, if not, he could easily have the class to beat these even on just his second hurdles start. Given the start Willie Mullins made to this meeting on Tuesday winning all three Grade 1 races, he could go close to emulating a staggering 12 winners at this meeting last season and all of his entries deserve a look so, who knows, this may even be QUADRILLON’s day? He was behind Universal Truth when sixth in the Grade 1 bumper at this meeting last year but clearly that also meant he was held in some regard for him to even run and, although he hasn’t gone on as a novice hurdler just yet, his form isn’t to be sniffed at either. Mullins also runs CUCHULAINS SON who has won over this course but has been restricted to just one run this season when a good third at Naas. That followed over a year off and he had previously been running in Grade 1 and Grade 2 novice hurdles so he is very much to be respected.

4.15 ERNST & YOUNG HANDICAP CHASE

Wow the 2m handicap chases have been competitive during the second half of the season and this is yet another example having attracted a full compliment of 24 runners. I shall stick to my usual default position for such races by homing in on in-form, young progressive horses.

SHORT LIST

LILYWHITEDANCER

MAJESTIC OAK

VALAIN

ARKENDALE

CONCLUSION

Very tough but I would just give LILYWHITEDANCER the nod as he is progessing, bang in form and hails from the red hot Willie Mullins stable. Considered one of his best bumper horses a couple of seasons back (was fifth in the Festival Bumper), he has taken well to chasing this season winning two of his four starts including last time out at Navan and is now sent into handicap company for the first time. That Festival Bumper run was probably his best in NH Flat races and over hurdles and coincided with the only time he has had decent ground so this surface could see him improve again. MAJESTIC OAK did not run badly last time though more was probably expected of him but like Lilywhitedancer he is a novice having his handicap debut and has also won two of his four chase starts. Nina Carberry comes in for the ride for the first time today and her kind hands could easily suit him as he maybe did too much too early last time. VALAIN ran pretty well in a number of decent handicaps last season and is preferred by McCoy to PERCE ROCK and any J P McManus owned handicapper that enters Chetenham, Aintree or Punchestown off the back of a good break (186 days in his case) is always worth a second look and he is still only seven despite his experience. ARKENDALE was due to run in the Red Rum Chase but was pulled out in the morning and is another novice and I like the fact he has winning course form which is always a positive for Punchestown.

4.50 LA TOUCHE CUP

Cross country races are usually so uncompetitive featuring just a handful that could possibly win and this race is no exception as since 1994 only one winner has started at bigger than 7/1 so only consider the front three or four in the betting.

Enda Bolger is triple-handed in his bid to win 11 of the last 12 runnings of this race with L’AMI, FRENEYS WELL and HEADS ONTHE GROUND. J T McNamara, as expected, retains the ride on L’Ami with Nina Carberry on Freneys Well and it was Nina on the lesser-fancied Bolger horse that won the banks race here on Tuesday beating McNamara on the favourite (4th) and she was second on him in this race three years ago.

Looking at Cheltenham’s three cross-country races run earlier in the season, there is nothing to split all three in terms of highlighting La Touche Cup winners as all three races have rowed in with three winners apiece but we must take on board that the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country Handicap was first run in 2005 whereas the November and December races have been in existence since the mid-90s so it has had far less opportunities to make its mark on this race so should be considered the key guide of the Cheltenham races. Contenders from this year’s race are L’AMI (2nd), ANOTHER JEWEL (4th), FRENEYS WELL (6th), HEADS ONTHE GROUND (10th) and SIZING AUSTRALIA (11th) though the latter was smashed up badly on the home turn alsmot falling as a consequence so ignore that finishing position. It was also a joke race in that so many were in with a chance 2 out it was unreal because the ground was alsmost Good and they didn’t go a great pace which led to a strange result in a horse winning that had not won any race for five years so that form could easily be turned upside down here.

SHORT LIST

FRENEYS WELL

L’AMI

SIZING AUSTRALIA

CONCLUSION

Nothing clever here, just go with the obvious as the obvious seem to dominate these races. I suggested we perm the front three in the betting in exactas and trifectas for the banks race on Tuesday and it paid 18/1 for the winning excacta so I suggest looking at something similar again here if you don’t particularly fancy one of the leading contenders over another. The key stats are being trained by Enda Bolger and a run in the Cheltenham Festival cross country race and all three of his runners did run there but HEADS ONTHE GROUND appears to have had his day so we’ll let him pass. Splitting L’AMI and FRENEYS WELL who were second and sixth at Cheltenham is tricky but as Freneys Well won over these banks at this meeting in another race last season, has finished second in this race before (and a cloise-up fourth) plus Nina Carberry is back on board, he could be the better value as I imagine L’Ami will be preferred in the market. He looks a solid each-way bet to me. SIZING AUSTRALIA has taken very well to banks racing these season and was placed in the first two Cheltenham races this campaign but was murdered at the Festival on the home bend so is worth another chance hence his place in the short list. He is a maiden over fences believe it or not but his time will come soon in one of these races as he is still young compared to most of his rivals. OH JACKIE won this race two years ago at 25/1 but that was a weak year.

5.30 LADBROKES.COM WORLD SERIES HURDLE

The Irish have been struggling in the staying hurdle department for many years (no World Hurdle winner since Dorans Pride) and they have only won this race, their own World Hurdle, on five occasions in the last 13 years which is not good given how they have overpowered the Brits in terms of numbers so connections of the raiding party consisting KARABAK, BENSALEM and KAYF ARAMIS must be hopeful. However, they all have negative patterns to overcome regarding finishing unplaced last time out (12 of the last 13 winners were placed on their last start).

A run at the Cheltenham Festival has been important with six of the last seven winners taking part which is something MOURAD, JESSIE DREAM, NINETIETH MINUTE and AITMATOV failed to do. Although a run at Cheltenham has been preferable, the World Hurdle has surprisingly been a very poor guide supplying just a single winner in the last ten years which suggests 3m at Festival pace against Grade 1 standard horse not long ago has had an adverse affect and would put me off POWERSTATION (3rd but always runs above his Irish form at Cheltenham), KARABAK (4th), OSCAR DAN DAN (6th) and WAR OF ATTRITION (12th).

Another big stat is that all but one of the last 13 winners had finished in the first three last time out which is against AITMATOV, BENSALEM, KARABAK, KAYF ARAMIS, NOBLE PRINCE and OSCAR DAN DA.

SHORT LIST

QUEVEGA

PRINCE ERIK

(NOBLE PRINCE)

(BENSALEM)

CONCLUSION

BENSALEM fell last time out but, as far as I was concerned, he looked all set to win the William Hill Trophy with a degree of comfort so it would be churlish to overlook him here as he didn’t place last time, especially as it was over fences and I prefer him to his better-fancied stablemate KARABAK who is said not to want too much racing and this could come too soon after a hard race when fourth in the World Hurdle. BERTIES DREAM won a real war of attrition in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle so will do well to recover in time and probably needs a similar set of conditions to reproduce that so is not for me and neither is COUSIN VINNY who won last time but was unconvincing in a far weaker race than this. Some may think of PRINCE ERIK as a handicapper but that did not stop Carlys Quest and Rubhahunish win this race who were stepping up in grade and the former was second in the Pertemps Final in which three recent winners of this race contested. QUEVEGA has to be the one to beat though. Impressive in victory in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham, she kept her form here last season after winning the same race at the Festival by running so well over 2m behind Solwhit and Punjabi and if she fully stays then she is a class above these. NOBLE PRINCE will like the ground and is also a player if ridden with more restraint than when failing to stay this trip on heavy ground over Christmas when he quickened to the front but was reeled in by POWERSTATION. He was unplaced last time but it was in a big field (County Hurdle) and 2m would have been on the sharp side for him (crazy they didn’t run him in the Coral Cup) but not that far in fifth so ran well enough.

6.05 NAAS COURT HOTEL HANDICAP HURDLE

Another nigh-on impossible handicap featuring 28 runners this time over three miles so play it very easy. What has Willie Mullins got?

SHORT LIST

CLEAR RIPOSTE

BALTHAZAR KING

ROCKADARE

HERE COMES SALLY

CONCLUSION

In answer to the question, Mullins has got just one runner which makes life a little easier in CLEAR RIPOSTE but he has to overcome a 308-day absence. That is not a concern hailing from this yard and, having finished second on six of his last seven starts, if he takes your fancy it may be wise to have a little each-way insurance. Winning is a problem as he has not managed that since December 2005 but if anyone can work their magic on a horse for these five days it is Willie Mullins. Philip Hobbs has had his string order for a good month now and brings over BALTHAZAR KING. He may have top weight and comes here off a bad run but if we can forgive that last run he has chances in a race with a right load of old dross as had been running well in far better races than this at Cheltenham and Newbury earlier in the season and he should love the ground. Other tentative suggestions for the short list are HERE COMES SALLY who wears first-time blinkers and is a previous course winner and ROCKADARE who has also won here and Conor O’Dwyer has gone to the trouble of booking Barry Geraghty for his first run in 217 days.

6.40 RYANAIR NOVICES’ CHASE

Given that eight of the last 13 winners contested the Arkle Trophy, that has been the clear best guide and features the likes of OSANA (3rd), RIVERSIDE BOY (5th), CAPTAIN CEE BEE (8th), FOSTERS CROSS (9th) and SPORTS LINE (11th). Osana has run again since when second in the Maghull Chase behind Tataniano with ARCHIE BOY (3rd) and SCHELM (pulled up) and three of the last seven winners of this race contested both those British Grade 1 events. The last two winners both ran in the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup two weeks earlier, a race in which ROBERTO GOLDBACK fell and LET YOURSELF GO were pulled up. This year’s Powers Gold Cup was run in awful ground and two of its principals blew out here on Tuesday.

A little surprisingly, 13 of the last 15 winners were aged seven or older so maybe being so late in the season is not ideal for the younger horses such as RIVERSIDE THEATRE who ran a most peculiar race in the Arkle and I have got him down as a flat-track horse so Punchestown may not be for him. He is the only Brit and they have won on four of the last six occasions when they have been represented.

The Willie Mullins-trained SPORTS LINE may lack the experience as he has only had three chase starts whereas the last nine winners had all run four times or more during the season.

Finally, this is a race which the market has not been far wrong as all but one of the last 15 winners started at no bigger than 6/1.

SHORT LIST

OSANA

CAPTAIN CEE BEE

FOSTERS CROSS

CONCLUSION

This rarely goes to anything but a fancied horse so I have not looked beyond the obvious as far as the first two horses are concerned. CAPTAIN CEE BEE was an expensive failure for many punters when only eighth having been sent off favourite for the Arkle but the pace of this race may suit his jumping better and the Arkle has been the key guide. He has plenty of ground to make up on OSANA though who was third and then ran at Aintree (second) but that didn’t stop three of the last seven winners taking this race and this track should suit Edward O’Grady’s charge. Captain Cee Bee would have beaten Osana however at Christmas but the O’Grady stable were not really firing should it should be close between the pair but I have a narrow preference for Osana on this ground and who is also the more fluent jumper. FOSTERS CROSS is a real good ground horse so is of interest though he has gone off the boil since the autumn but, if there is to be shock, he could be the one to cause it.

7.15 EMERALDBLOODSTOCK.COM INH FLAT RACE

They love their bumpers at this meeting and this would probably be the third most prestigious of the six run here over the five-day Festival. Twenty-four head to post so this doesn’t get any easier.

SHORTLIST

BISHOPSFURZE

FORTY FOOT TOM

GAGEWELL FLYER

KID CASSIDY

CONCLUSION

FORTY FOOOT TOM created such a good impression in a good time on his debut that he was being touted a Festival Bumper horse. He didn’t run in the end at Cheltenham and was only seventh at Fairyhouse last time so it looked a good decision not to travel over but he should be given another chance to confirm that very good impression as he raced too freely on bad ground on that occasion. BISHOPSFURZE did go to Cheltenham and finished a fair seventh. Given the fiftth and sixth came clear in the Grade 2 bumper at the Aintree Festival, the form has been franked so he has to be short-list material especially as he came from a long way back to win his bumper at this course, a run his trainer described to similar to Cousin Vinny when he made a winning debut here. Another interesting Mullins runner is GAGEWELL FLYER who I backed for last season’s Festival Bumper having won well on his only previous start. He has only run once since last year’s Cheltenham Festival and could have been saved for this race. Nicky Henderson does well with his bumper horses at this meeting and brings over CAVITE BETA and KID CASSIDY of which the latter is more interesting being owned by the Magniers so their son rides which isn’t so great but he looked like a horse with a real future when made odds-on for a winning debut at Newbury.