Paul Jones Private Service – Punchestown Day 4

Thu, Apr 22, 2010

Two Grade 1 races but the remaining races look close to impossible so go easy on those. Or we could just blindly back Willie Mullins!

3.40 KFM HUNTERS’ CHASE

The opening Hunter Chase looks a fairly modest affair and I have decided not to cover the race. It says it all when a 50/1 shot won it last year who has been pulled up every other time he has raced. That was SHIN A VEE, who actually runs in Bregawn’s colours, and he is back again. If you absolutely must get involved then GLENARK represents the Carr team that won this contest two years ago and he won a maiden point-to-point two weeks ago so at least is in good heart. Other than that, pass.

4.20 STEPHENS GREEN HIBERNIAN CLUB HANDICAP CHASE

The marathon handicap chase of the meeting taking place over 3m6f and, that man again, Willie Mullins has won the last two runnings and runs POMME TIEPY and PALACE MERANO.

SHORT LIST

TINAKELLYLAD

POMME TIEPY

BAILY VIEW

HUME RIVER

CONCLUSION

Given the way the Mullins horses are running and the fact he has won this race for the last two years, I have to include one of his pair and suggest POMME TIEPY (the other is PALACE MERANO) whose form figures this season are woeful but the trainer has hinted more than once he fancies she can win a big race. A first fence faller in the Topham, she is now 9lbs lower than when not running badly at Cheltenham in December and is certainly on a winnable mark if he has her right. Remember she did start second-favourite for the RSA Chase two years ago. I had a few quid on TINAKELLYLAD at a massive price in the NH Chase at Cheltenham and he was still going okay when falling at the 17th when in third place. He has since run again when second in heavy ground at Cork but his trainer feels decent ground is what he needs so I can see a big run from him. His four lengths’ defeat of Kempes (won the Grade 1 here on Tuesday) certainly reads very well now. BAILY VIEW is a course winner that dons first time blinkers and returns to Good ground for the first time since a good second on this surface on hurdles so he could improve on recent efforts on those three counts and the other I would throw in is HUME RIVER as he has finished placed on both starts at the track and had a nice break so Jessica Harrington may have had this race in mind for him for a while.

4.55 MOTIVATECHALLENGE.COM NOVICE HANDICAP CHASE

This isn’t the same race as I have featured in the Guide of a similar name as this is the novices’ handicap chase, they have just changed the sponsors around. The presence of the Jewson winner COPPER BLEU means that he is keeping eight of the 19 runners out of the handicap. Yet again Willie Mullins has been the main man as has won the last three runnings (and four of the last seven) and this time he lets the Arkle sixth QUISCOVER FONTAINE, the Powers Gold Cup third SHAKERVILZ and OTAY KAWN (4lbs out of the handicap) represent him.

SHORT LIST

KANGAROO COURT

QUISCOVER FONTAINE

COPPER BLEU

SHAKERVILZ

CONCLUSION

Class has told in this race in recent seasons with those towards the top of the handicap faring best so that is where I have primarily focussed. I fancied KANGAROO COURT for the Future Champions Novice Chase at Ayr on Saturday when he fell at the first fence and he has his ground again here so he has to make it onto the short list. I felt his run in the Arkle was a warm-up for other targets in the spring following a layoff but he missed Aintree and it went pear-shaped at Ayr so this could be his chance. The trainer has done well with her few runners at this meeting in recent seasons. DEAL DONE finished second in the Powers Gold Cup but we have seen already that hard race on awful ground take its toll on two of its principals at this meeting so it is possible he has left his race behind him at Fairyhouse. SHAKERVILZ fell that day and remounted for third and didn’t endure as hard a race so I would prefer him of the pair as he was also a classy hurdler, the yard are flying and this could be his ideal trip. QUISCOVER FONTAINE ran well in the Arkle to finish sixth and that race is already working out well so he could easily impose his class on this race over a trip thought likely to suit him better than 2m. He looks a touygh, durable sort. COPPER BLEU won the Jewson pretty well and the third and fourth ran okay here on Tuesday so the form looks decent and he is a course winner to boot having won a novice hurdle at this meeting last season so his chance is an obvious one.

5.30 RABOBANK CHAMPION HURDLE

Strange results often occur in Grade 1 races at this late stage of the season but, bar one renewal, this has been a strong race for leading fancies that showed their form last time out as the last 11 winners all ran well on their previous start by either placing at worst (including on the Flat) or would have done so but for a late fall so I suggest we just stick to horses that ran well last time which would put me off PUNJABI, SOLWHIT and MEDERMIT somewhat who were disappointing in the Champion Hurdle (though the latter returned with a problem) plus DE VALIRA.

What SOLWHIT does have in his favour is that he has contested three of the four key guides that have highlighted three of more winners of this race in the last decade including winning the December Hurdle, a race in which 6 of the last 11 winners of this contest took part in. The other key race has been the Aintree Hurdle in which MUIRHEAD finished second and WON IN THE DARK finished fourth.

The Brits have fared well as five of the last six to come over have finished in the first two and they are represented by PUNJABI, MEDERMIT and RONALDO DES MOTTES here, and the market has also been key though it is interesting the second-favourite has beaten the favourite into second on five occasions in the last seven years.

SHORT LIST

WON IN THE DARK

(HURRICANE FLY)

(SOLWHIT)

CONCLUSION

I would suspect that DUNGUIB will receive a more positive ride than at Cheltenham given the flak they got but even if he would have won that event that still leaves him with plenty to find here and, good though he is, he is not that good yet and priced up on reputation. His suspect jumping will also have to be razor sharp against this opposition so he is not for me at the price and this hasn’t been a race for novices either.. The fact SOLWHIT has been running in and winning the right races to me offsets his poorish run in the Champion Hurdle. That wasn’t a terrible run at Cheltenham however, just not what many were hoping for where an interrupted preparation also hindered his chance. The ground may be quicker than he would like watching Wednesday’s action but they are reportedly watering now which really helps his cause in winning back-to-back runnings. PUNJABI may have seen too much daylight in the Champion Hurdle effectively racing on his own for the first mile but was still disappointing so we could have a turn up here like we did in the Guinness Gold Cup and I will be backing WON IN THE DARK (each-way) who loves Good ground and beat Punjabi in the 4yo Hurdle here two years ago (which has been good guide the following year’s race but the ground went against him 12 months ago). He would have been third in the Aintree Hurdle (been a decent guide) but for not being hampered as was only beaten a short-head by Zaynar for that spot after looking like he was being ridden for a place trying 2m4f but is now back to 2m so I would expect a more aggressive ride and he has good chances of reversing with the runner-up MUIRHEAD. In fact, he is the only horse to have contested all four of the key guides but when he was trounced by Solwhit twice at Leopardstown that was on heavy ground he detests and he should be a big price here. Outside Won In The Dark, not many others meet the profile so it was tough between VOLER LA VEDETTE and HURRICANE FLY for the third berth in the short list but I just wonder if the ground is soft enough for the former who was well beaten on her only effort on Good ground. Hurricane Fly hasn’t been sighted since the autumn but Willie Mullins would not run a prospect as exciting as him if he had any fitness worries and it is hard to get out of my head how easily he won at this meeting last year or beat Go Native at Leopardstown.

6.05 CATHAL RYAN MEMORIAL CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE

Given the Mullins yard are on fire and have won five of the last eight runnings, then FIONNEGAS has to come into this if he has recovered from his hard race when unseating his rider at the final flight in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle.

Age-wise, as with its Cheltenham equivalent, the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle, this is no race for 4yos or older horses (7+) as five and six-year-olds have won the last 13 runnings so SEEABILITY and SOME PRESENT would be breaking that trend if successful.

Interestingly, more winners of this race in the last dozen years ran at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting than the Cheltenham Festival (seven in fact) though over a range of different races so LUSKA LAD (beat Blackstairmountain), SEEABILITY, START ME UP, WARNE and WHODOYOUTHINK have that in their favour. The ‘Neptune’ leads the way in terms of winners featured in one individual race and REVE DE SIVOLA looks set to best represent that race (SOME PRESENT was back in eighth) having run a fine second to Peddlers Cross who has franked the form by following up at Aintree. On that form, he should start favourite and five of the last six favourites have obliged though I suspect it will be close for favouritism between him and LUSKA LAD and local support may just edge it for the latter.

What REVE DE SIVOLA didn’t achieve last time out was a win like 8 of the last 9 runners but I don’t think we can overlook him for that reason given it was in a hot running of the ‘Neptune’ and he only found one too good. In fact, there are only two last-time-out winners in the line up, LUSKA LAD and STONEMASTER.

SHORT LIST

LUSKA LAD

STONEMASTER

(FIONNEGAS)

CONCLUSION

The ultra-tough LUSKA LAD has done me a few good turns this season and I hope he can give one more by landing this Grade 1 event. A far better horse racing right-handed, he missed Cheltenham and Aintree purposely for Fairyhouse and Punchestown and got the first part done when gamely fighting back to beat Tuesday’s Grade 1 winner Blackstairmountain. Usually I would be against horses that have hard campaigns at this stage of the season but he thrives on racing and looks the one to beat as also meets the main trends criterion. The other big form horse is REVE DE SIVOLA but this has not been a race in which the Brits have a good record. He looked outstanding beforehand in the ‘Neptune’ and ran accordingly which just makes me wonder whether he can hold that condition as well as Luska Lad who is one serious tough nut. STONEMASTER stayed on well to win at Limerick last time and earns his place in the line up as he is just one of two last-time-out winners in a race where horses with such a profile have dominated. He has yet to encounter decent ground so there could be plenty more to come from him. FIONNEGAS finished second to Dunguib before running a big race at Cheltenham before unseating at the final flight in the Albert Bartlett. It was a tired fall that suggested 3m stretched him so this drop back in trip should be ideal in his bid to give Willie Mullins a remarkable sixth winner of this race in the last nine years.

6.40 BEST FOR RACING COVERAGE NOVICE HURDLE

Two of this season’s Cheltenham Festival winners, Sizing Europe and Copper Bleu, have won this novice hurdle in the last three years and if any of these 23 runners can emulate them, I would bet it would be Arvika Ligeonnaire.

SHORT LIST

ARVIKA LIGEONNAIRE

PUYOL

DR WHIZZ

CONCLUSION

I wrote in the Cheltenham round-up in the Aintree/Festival Betting Guide about ARVIKA LIGEONNAIRE that he was the horse I would take home with me for a chasing career of every horse I saw in the paddock so I have to be with him here. For me, he shaped like the best horse in the Albert Bartlett before his weakness told turning for home and he will be a better horse next season for sure and that is my slight concern – whether he is ready enough yet to back that promising run up at this stage of his career but he is all class of that I am sure. Hopefully it will as I believe he is a class above these though 2m on goodish ground would also be a slight niggle. PUYOL got off the mark over hurdles when a 50/1 winner of the Pierse Hurdle but he is an experienced novice so has to be respected. Unplaced in the County Hurdle on his only subsequent start, he should enjoy reverting back to taking on fellow novices and we know he handles a big field. DR WHIZZ was well regarded before disappointing in heavy ground when odds-on on his last start. Perhaps he can be forgiven that run due to encountering testing ground for the first time and he has been freshened up given a near two month’s break so is interesting.

7.10 ITBA FILLIES BUMPER

The first of two bumpers to finish the card and this is for fillies and mares, and, it’s pretty much guesswork to be honest with so little to go on with almost half being unraced. All six runnings have been won by five-year-olds if that is any help so I will look at those.

SHORT LIST

HIGH BENEFIT

LONESOME DOVE

ROSEE DES BIEFFES

CONCLUSION

Basically I am going to gib out here and suggest the two proven winners that are also five-year-olds like all six winners of this race and tentatively put forward LONESOME DOVE and HIGH BENEFIT. The former is trained by Charlie Swan and looks to have been trained for this coming off a 113-day break whilst the latter is housed at Alan King’s yard and it’s most unusual for him to bring one over for a bumper. She won very easily at Haydock on her only start and could be just much better than these. ROSEE DES BIEFFES represents the Tom Mullins stable that does well in this sphere and is also a five-year-old so she could be the best of the debutantes.

7.45 BETCHRONICLE.COM INH FLAT RACE

Only 107 horses were still in this race at the five-day stage which just tells us how impossible these bumpers are. The great news is we only have a mere 28 to choose from in the NH Flat race at this meeting for maidens (outside of point-to-points). Needless to say, this is a nightmare!

SHORT LIST

ALLEE GARDE

SPILL THE BEANS

FRISCO DEPOT

CONCLUSION

Willie Mullins has won two of the last seven runnings so we have to consider ALLEE GARDE who was favourite for his only run when second but caught close home. The winner did little for that form here earlier in the week but he shaped like a horse that could easily pick up a bumper and the stable are in far better form now than they were then. SPILL THE BEANS has the eye-catching piece of form having finished second to the well-regarded Elegant Concorde and is also more experienced than most of these so is an obvious contender for Henry De Bromhead. He also beat the Festival Bumper third Frawley when chasing home Elegant Concorde on Boxing Day so I can see him going off favourite on that run. FRISCO DEPOT ran a promising second on his only start back in the autumn which was at this course so Dessie Hughes’ six-year-old also makes the short list.