National Hunt Season Betting Guide – 24th Apr 10

Fri, Apr 23, 2010

The final race in the National Hunt Betting guide series (2009/10) is the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and it’s normally a real minefield for punters! However with the help of the trends I think we may have uncovered a couple of possibles for us to hopefully end the season on a high.

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Bet365 Gold Cup – Sandown, Saturday April 24th 2010

Seven and eight-year-olds are the way forward here with these two age groups winning six of the last ten renewals. Hardly an overwhelming stat but even so. Seven-year-olds are probably just the better option on account of having fewer runners during this time frame so THE PACKAGE, JUST AMAZING and FAIROAK LAD look solid starting points. Eight of the last 10 winners carried less than 11st and this is a far more convincing stat and so the likes of MONKERHOSTIN, KILLYGLEN, MY WILL, NOZIC, TAMARINBLEU, THE PACKAGE and AIR FORCE ONE should all be surplus to requirements. What we also need to consider is those horses who have been mixing it at class 1 and 2 levels during the campaign and those horses that are in the early stages of their chase careers as first and second season chasers do remarkably well here. Also, eight of the last ten winners already proven over 3m+.

SHORTLIST
FAIROAK LAD
JUST AMAZING
MARTY’S MISSION
NOSTRINGSATTACHED
AIR FORCE ONE

CONCLUSION
This was really tough. Both FAIROAK LAD and JUST AMAZING look similar sorts and the worry with them is the fact they head the market as favourites have a poor record here (only 1 favourite in last 10 years). However if we look past this trend they both excel, with the Philip Hobbs runner looking the strongest trend performer. Both are first season chasers, the correct age and with proven form over 3m+. From a trends perspective they look sure to go well.

At the foot of the handicap first season chaser MARTY’S MISSION catches the eye. So far this season he’s been unlucky to bump into Kangaroo Court, Bensalem and Punchestowns in his novice chases so he’s not had an easy time of things. However he is a decent horse in his own right, as he showed when despatching the useful Font on quick ground last May. Stamina is a concern but no horse is completely faultless on the trends and at a big price I’m happy to put him up in a race that can produce shocks.

NOSTRINGSATTACHED is another at the foot of the weights and, like Marty’s Mission, was pulled up at Cheltenham last time out. However, he was no back number that day if the betting is to be believed and simply had an off day by the looks of it. He is lacking winning form over a trip but has been placed over 3m 1f when behind Backstage at Ffos Las on his penultimate outing. This quick ground will hold no fears and off his featherweight looks a player.

The final place on the shortlist goes to AIR FORCE ONE who side stepped the Grand National to come here. He is a class individual and that could count for plenty in this race. He’s had a very light campaign (just the 3 runs) and although he carries just over 11st he is a Grade 1 winning animal and should be able to give weight to horses like LOTHIAN FLACON and ALDERBURN (no disrespect to them you understand). He was travelling perfectly well when coming to grief on his last start and although that is hardly an ideal preparation he has been given a good month to get over that experience.