Paul Jones Private Service – 23rd & 24th Apr 10

Fri, Apr 23, 2010

Saturday, April 24^th

The final week of the NH season but not quite the final week of this service as I mentioned earlier I would add on an extra week for the weekend following the Cheltenham Festival which was omitted as I was at Cheltenham that week. I did initially mention I would cover Guineas Weekend to make up for the lost week but that is no longer possible, however, please log in again in two weeks’ time where I will cover that weekend’s racing which features some good jumping action at Haydock for the Swinton Hurdle so also ties in more with this service whereas Guineas Weekend does not.

1.30 SANDOWN
Petit Robin is a clear form pick but he has been disappointing on his last two starts and didn’t like jumping fences right-handed at Ascot. Perhaps he will enjoy going this way round more over hurdles but it is a concern and this rather smacks of trying to get some confidence back into him. He could simply be too classy for these but I would have liked to have seen more enthusiasm in his last two runs. Ashkazar won at Cheltenham last time having been dropped to a winning mark but doesn’t strike me as the type to trust to back it up with another good run though he did look good over this course and distance last season. If Alsadaa wasn’t attempting to give 8lbs away to a much better horse in Petit Robin, he would have interested me more coming off a win on the Flat and is a C/D winner and the other three have plenty to find. Of the three mentioned I would say Alsadaa is the most likely to run his race but giving weight away to more talented horses is the worry so a watching race.

2.00 SANDOWN
No strong view in a competitive handicap except that Sangfroid looks likely to go well again so is of interest in each-way and place-only markets (especially if all 16 stand their ground). Consistent and keeping his form well, his course record also catches the eye as he has won and finished second here on his only two runs at Sandown and both his wins have come on quick ground so conditions are going to suit as well. Nick Williams’ horses continue to run well so I expect a big run from Sangfroid.

2.30 SANDOWN
After disgracing himself by refusing to race at Punchestown, Twist Magic is back and, needless to say, if you fancy him, best wait until he jumps off and take a shorter price in-running before he arrives at the first fence. I know this is his track and he won this race easily last year but I think he has had a tough season and also feel Walsh is important to him. Sam Thomas is back on board today and he won a Tingle Creek on him here but, on balance, I would prefer to look elsewhere and feel Mahogany Blaze has a good each-way look about him if all eight stand their ground. He is not far off being a Grade 1 horse on his day and although he fell early in the Champion Chase, I thought he ran very well for 2m2f in the Melling Chase trying a longer trip before his stamina ran out and feel that back to 2m with a likely dodgy favourite in Twist Magic, this could be his day for a host of decent efforts in defeat notably when splitting Well Chief and Master Minded at Cheltenham in November. If all eight stand their ground, he appeals each-way to me more than Oh Crick whose jumping can be hesitant (not ideal for Sandown), Fix The Rib and I’m So Lucky as I feel he has more class than those.

3.05 SANDOWN
The big staying chases at the back end of this season have been more competitive than I can ever remember and this is another example as I could make good cases for many of these. In the end I have come down in favour of Fairoak Lad for the in-form Philip Hobbs yard who is also a novice which I like for this race and will appreciate the ground providing they don’t over-water overnight and going right-handed. He has got a decent racing weight and has the look of a horse trained for the race whereas it appears to be afterthought for many others. Of the outsiders, Piraya is just the type to pop up at a big price. I’ve no idea when or where and he is also just as likely to be pulled up but he is a horse not to be dismissed on a going day and this race does tend to suit quirky horses for some reason. A first-time visor is also interesting so yet again he is going to draw me in each-way but, at a big race, that’s fair enough. I have to say I don’t really fancy the top eight horses in the weights for all sorts of reasons and this has also traditionally been a race in lower-weighted horses have a far better record. Just Amazing is respected being a Nicholls-trained novice but he did only beat three horses last time and that is the run he is being priced up and would prefer to consider Kilcrea Castle who was all the rage before the Racing Post Chase but badly disappointed. If you can forgive that run then he is a player and Emma Lavelle has her horses in good order. One more to throw in at a big price is Martys Mission. He interests me Richard Rowe has won the race before, he is a novice which is an angle I like and if you ignore his last run, he caught the eye when a good fifth in a hot handicap hurdle on his previous start and had previously been placed shaping okay behind class acts such as Punchestowns and Bensalem. In short I will make Fairoak Lad my main bet to improve the good record of Philip Hobbs and I am afraid at his big price I can not resist a small each-way poke on my old friend Piraya. Martys Mission (ew) and Kilcrea Castle should also be looked at.

3.25 RIPON
This staying handicap often has a bearing on the Chester Cup and features a good mix of experienced stayers and progressive young horses make and Bothy appeals most as he is fit from hurdling where he had a productive campaign and is open to improvement at this trip in the Flat and he also tries his heart out for you. He is handicapped on his efforts at up to 1m2f on the Flat but I feel he is virtually guaranteed to improve for this distance given the way he kept finding in 2m juvenile hurdles and was not disgraced when seventh in the Fred Winter Hurdle. In fact, after he won his maiden at Epsom last April when trained by Ralph Beckett at the time, I recall they were even talking in terms of the French Derby for him given how well regarded he was at the time. Halla San has run well in the best staying handicaps and should be thereabouts. He was only beaten half a length in last season’s Chester Cup so just wonder if Fahey is using this race to put the final touches to his preparation for that race again.

3.35 LEICESTER
A 7f Listed race that is usually won by a horse that goes on to become or is already a Group-race performer, Alyarf would interest me most. Trained by Barry Hills who has won two of the last four runnings, he is lightly-race for a four-year-old having been restricted to only four starts in his career, the latest of which when winning a similar race to this at Newmarket last May in some style. Prior to that he didn’t stay a mile when fourth to Delegator in the Craven but looked very good when previously winning his maiden. This looks his trip and I can easily see him developing into a live contender for the Jersey Stakes over 7f at Royal Ascot. The opposition is only so-so, so if any of these can make their mark at a higher level, I would bet on it being Alyarf. Hopefully Light From Mars will make the market after his eye-catching run at Kempton in a handicap that received much coverage.

3.40 SANDOWN
Between them Richard Hannon (4 wins) and Sir Michael Stoute (2 wins) have won the last six runnings of this Grade 2 race and they are represented here by Paco Boy and Confront. Last year’s winner Paco Boy should win this comfortably on official ratings and I imagine he will but it is his first run of the season and probably more of a prep for the Lockinge than anything else so I don’t expect him to be impressive but probably ready enough to get the job done. Confront represents Stoute but I am not a fan of horses coming back to home shores for their next start after running in Dubai as their record isn’t especially good. There are some interesting other contenders including Pressing who is a top class horse when sent abroad winning Group 1s but doesn’t replicate that form here (plus he has to give weight to Paco Boy),The Cheka who impressed as a two-year-old but has had problems and Prince Of Dance who is unbeaten in three starts but it will be disappointing if Paco Boy’s class does not shine through.

4.15 SANDOWN
This Group 3 event has often been the launching pad to the season for one of Sir Michael Stoute top guns (Ask and Tartan Bearer have won the last two runnings for him) so it is interesting he relies on Glass Harmonium here who looks a typical Stoute improver from three to four. A Royal Ascot winner over this trip last season, he was beaten on his next two outings dropping in distance but the return to 10f and a winter’s developing behind him make him very interesting here. On his final start of last season he narrowly failed to beat Steele Tango but probably would have won with a clear run so I am sure he will improve past him at some stage this season but his rival does have a fitness edge today so I am finding it hard to separate the pair. Crowded House has the strongest form but, as mentioned earlier, I am just not keen on supporting horses on their first starts back in Europe that had been racing in Dubai. Steele Tango was fourth at HQ last week two places behind Tranquil Tiger who had a fitness edge so I see him finishing closer to that rival and Laaheb should not be forgotten either having been progressive last season. Open but Glass Harmonium at a push in the hope Stoute has worked his usual magic on improving horses from three to four.

Sunday, April 25^th

9.35 SHA TIN
The valuable QEII Cup takes place tonight and, having done a wedge on Presvis when he got a shocker of a ride from Lemaire in the Dubai Duty Free, I will be looking to recoup that and more here with Ryan Moore back in the saddle who rides this tricky character so well. Held up in a slowly run race on Dubai World Cup night, Lemaire could not find a clear passage on Presvis so that run is best ignored but, with just eight rivals here there should be no problems on that score and hopefully the Dubai World Cup second Lizard’s Desire can help make the market. Presvis is world class on his day and came from last to first under Moore to win this race last season and can do so again.