Hunter Chase Betting Service

Wed, May 5, 2010

5.35 Cheltenham
FARMER FRANK – Dual winner this term, including a heavy ground Hunter Chase at Towcester last time (fell when travelling strongly at Leicester); tailed off on his sole start going left-handed under Rules but has won this way round in Points and looks a leading contender in a weak race.

ALROYAL – Bit hit and miss recently and has failed to build on a fine comeback effort at Newbury; never in the hunt when fourth in this race last year but this is a much weaker contest, however two miles is plenty sharp for him these days.

CALGARY JOCK – Went backwards over hurdles after winning off 97 (2m, good) in August 2008; hopeless non-stayer in Points this season and 66/1 when pulled up early at Ascot (rider lost irons). Drop in trip will suit but plenty to prove.

CLASH – Easy winner of a Maiden on his debut for Don Cantillon but has gone off the rails since and ditched by that shrewd yard at the end of last year. Simply going from bad to worse for his new connections and no chance in this company.

EVEN HOMER NODS – Doesn’t stay 3m so recent efforts not too disheartening; ran well for a long way before weakening in the 2m5f event on this card last year and faintly interesting on this drop back to 2m; fair bit to find on form but one of the more reliable ones in the field.

GRAND SILENCE – Placed in a minor 2m2f beginners’ chase at Fontwell in 2008, then missed 2009; runner-up twice in 2m4f Maidens this term but has shown plenty of temperament in doing so; much more needed in this company.

INNOCENT REBEL – Went the wrong way under Rules since winning a 2m6f Newton Abbot Hunter by a wide margin in 2007; form in minor Ladies Opens this season has been decent (impressed at Wadebridge) and as long as the drop back to the minimum doesn’t inconvenience he must have a solid chance.

LETHAL GUN – Terrible under Rules and has been a headstrong nightmare in Points so far this season; has no business being in a race like this and hopefully will stay out of everyone else’s way.

MARADO – Exposed as very poor indeed and was beaten miles after racing prominently for a while on his return to Pointing at Andoversford last month (bad race).

MR GOOFY – Has run some decent races at this level in the past (including 6L third at Towcester to Farmer Frank last season) but incredibly difficult to win with and generally finds very little when push comes to shove; likely to run well for a long way but probably won’t relish the final climb.

RALAHINE – Of little account under Rules following some decent efforts in defeat in Maidens; fair effort when second at Brampton last time over 2m4f and looks as though the further drop in trip will suit, but very limited and would be a surprise winner of this; trainer has surprised at Cheltenham in the past, though.

REDSKYATNIGHT – Probably capable of winning a Maiden but an error-prone sort who looks very unlikely to take to this course; distant last on his sole previous try in a Hunter Chase.

RYEMAN – Ran on late to finish 16L third in this race last year and back to his very best when second at Newton Abbot last month (2m5f), but edgy and keen-going and generally opposable at any level; should run his race but likely to find a few too good, even taking into account this is a weaker race than last year.

SHOOTERS WOOD – Free running individual who won a 2m4f Maiden at Ston Easton two starts ago and ran well for a long way despite his inexperience at Newton Abbot next time out. Appeals as the type who would be suited by this sort of race; has plenty to find on form but unexposed and a good run wouldn’t be a surprise.

SMART BOY PRINCE – Triple hurdle winner if you go back far enough but not as good these days; has produced some decent efforts in Points, including last time out, but well beaten on his first run over regulation fences and unlikely to have the speed for this trip.

SULLIVAN’S CASCADE – Can show some speed but has not won a race in 45 attempts and unlikely to be breaking his duck in this company.

WALTER DE WODELAND – Unlikely runner after finishing a weary fourth at Exeter last night.

LAN NA LAMH – Exposed performer in Ireland; non-stayer in GB Points this season but did run well for a long way before fading over 2m4f at Ludlow; trip will suit but others surely have more scope.

Conclusion – Plenty of dead wood in this opener and nothing makes particular appeal; Farmer Frank is the most solid option and is narrowly preferred ahead of Innocent Rebel, with Even Homer Nods and Shooters Wood likely outsiders.

6.10 Cheltenham
BREAKING SILENCE – Like many Hunter Chasers from this yard, enjoyed being a big fish in a small pond when winning at Doncaster and Warwick, but incredibly disappointing when last over course and distance last month (30L+ behind Theatre Diva and Templer); easier ground may suit but still hard to envisage him overturning that deficit.

DRYBROOK BEDOUIN – Finally fulfilling the potential he showed as a youngster this term; fancied to run well in the Foxhunters here in March but the rain came at the wrong time and he finished a never dangerous ninth; all out to win a lesser affair at Taunton next time and clearly remains in good heart; comes right into the equation on the best of his form, especially if ground continues to dry.

SOUTHWESTERN – Achieved the big race success he so deserved when winning the Horse & Hound Cup last season; not as good this term but has had excuses – found conditions against him in the Foxhunters and given far too much to do when aiming to break his run of bad luck at Punchestown; the one to beat if at the top of his game but suspicions remain that his career peaked last season.

TAKE THE STAND – Top class former Gold Cup runner-up who has a terrific record around here, especially in this race of late (has won and finished a head second in the last two renewals); still capable of the odd decent run but effort here last time suggests that age is finally catching up with him. Expect him to run well for a long way but then find it all too much in the closing stages.

TEMPLER – 133-rated chaser who has taken well to this sphere, narrowly winning at Ludlow before finding only Theatre Diva too good over this course and distance last month; 4lbs better off with that rival for a ¾ length defeat but that not necessarily good enough to overturn the form as he did not come up the hill particularly well; hard to keep out of the frame, though.

TIKRAM – Former 2m5f Festival winner and won a Huntingdon Hunter Chase over 3m last season, but not the easiest of rides these days and likely to find this too tough after a mediocre comeback effort at Ascot.

BILLYVODDAN – Rated close to 160 at his peak but in decline since 2008; looked a desperately hard ride in Points this season but excelled himself when running the useful Coolefind close at Southwell last time out. Much more on his plate today and has never been the strongest of stayers over this sort of trip.

THEATRE DIVA – Lost her confidence over fences in 2008 but a switch to Pointing has worked the oracle; failed to cope with the soft ground and the stiff track when second at Exeter but has since won at Ludlow (2m4f) and over this course and distance, when she surprisingly found extra up the hill to deny Templer; 4lbs worse off today but clearly at the top of her game and no surprise if she upholds the form.

Conclusion – The smallest field of the evening but a hugely competitive contest; Theatre Diva and Templar are the obvious starting points after their battle here last month and the mare is fancied to uphold the form; both are marginally preferred ahead of last year’s Red Mills winner Drybrook Bedouin and the classy Southwestern.

6.45 Cheltenham
WILLIAM SOMERS – Thorough stayer who is enjoying himself in Points and Hunter Chases of late; no disgrace in being beaten by My Old Piano on his Rules debut and subsequently gamely scored over nearly 3m6f at Chepstow; simple task in a small field Open at Upton last time and comes here at the top of his game, but conditions perhaps may not be testing enough.

ADIEU MARI – Poor hurdler; much improved in Points and posted a decent performance when defeating an odds-on shot at Whitwell last time; comes into the reckoning on that effort but tackling regulation fences for the first time today; both wins have come over easy trips.

BRADLEY – Maiden winner last season and has rattled off a quick hat-trick this season, culminating in a narrow win on easy ground at Woodford last time; form is ordinary and needs to improve on this debut over regulation fences.

BUCKINGHAM BILL – Qualified for this when staying on too strongly for Sweden at Whitfield back in February and no disgrace in his defeats to the likes of Chilling Place and My Way De Solzen of late; easy to forgive his poor Hunter Chase effort in between (badly hampered early) but still has a fair amount to prove over regulation fences; solid chance if he can put it all in, though.

CLUTHE BOY – Has responded well to Sue Sharratt’s strong handling to win at Tabley and Whittington but the form is weak and hard to see him getting involved today, especially after a laboured effort in this race last season.

JOLLY BOYS OUTING – Game winner of a Horseheath Intermediate on his comeback but limitations exposed in Hunter Chases since, although not totally disgraced in the race won by Theatre Diva here last month; has never been the easiest of rides, however, and percentage call is to oppose.

LOTTA PRESENTS – Has won his last three completed starts, being particularly impressive when winning from the front at Horseheath last time, but races of that nature in his home area are generally weak and he probably needs to find more to be competitive on his debut over regulation fences.

MURPHYS FUSILIER – Rarely out of the frame when completing but overall level of form is nothing to write home about, and he doesn’t appeal as the type who will relish a test of stamina around here.

NOMADIC DREAMER – Most impressive when landing the hat-trick at Eyton on Easter Monday; stays and jumps well, travels kindly throughout his races and a likely big player despite his lack of experience.

OCA DE THAIX – More exposed than most at this level; his recent fifth in the Dunraven Bowl wasn’t a bad effort but it was way below the level required to be competitive in this better company; opposable.

ONE COOL KNIGHT – Of no account over hurdles but unbeaten in Points so far and landed the hat-trick in a Maisemore Intermediate last time; all out to win that day, though, and others have more convincing profiles on overall balance of form.

ONE TO NOTE – Consistent but very onepaced and hard to win with; limitations exposed in Folkestone Hunter Chase a couple of months ago and a likely outsider in this company.

PLUNGE – Moderate in Ireland and caused a 14/1 shock to qualify for this race at the Croome over Easter; outclassed in the Dunraven Bowl last time (Oca De Thaix fifth) and this is a better race.

PRINCE CAR – Little to shout about under Rules a couple of years ago and achieved qualification for this in a desperate three-runner affair on a road at Ystradowen last month; finished lame that day and his earlier form (pulled up thrice) suggests he will struggle badly in this company.

RALEAGH HOUSE – Sole defeat this term came when pitched into Open company too early at Barbury; improved and unbeaten since, completing the hat-trick in an impressively fast time on fastish ground at Bitterley last time out; yet to encounter regulation fences but jumps well on the whole and has a good attitude; must be considered.

ROSIES PEACOCK – Defied a penalty to win a Lydstep Intermediate on Easter Monday, winning in pleasing style, but such races in the Principality usually lack strength in depth and he probably has plenty to find on this debut over regulation fences.

Conclusion – A typically competitive renewal of this final with numerous progressive types on show. William Somers is the marginal form choice but this may not be a sufficient test of stamina and he faces some strong opposition from the likes of Buckingham Bill, Nomadic Dreamer and Raleagh House. A chance is taken on the unexposed Nomadic Dreamer, who was most impressive when winning his most recent race.

7.20 Cheltenham
ARTIC FIRE – Has ability but hardly ever makes it to the racecourse and his Member success at Lockinge over Easter was his first win of any sort; leaving it very late to make his debut under Rules and others have far more convincing profiles.

FREEDOMOFTHECITY – Modest form when placed recently; more experienced rider takes over today but hard to see him making an impact in this company.

GENTLE GEORGE – Classy youngster who has already won in decent company at Huntingdon and Newbury this season, and excelled himself when a staying-on fourth in the Foxhunters; clear form choice on those efforts but ran an absolute stinker next time out at Exeter when he was either still feeling the effects of his previous run or simply hated the fast ground; slightly risky prospect now but has an outstanding chance if returning to his best.

JAMES PINE – Has a decent record in this race; shock 40/1 winner on his NH debut two years ago and was going well in the lead when unseating two from home in what was ultimately a farcical renewal last year. In and out form this season (well beaten in the Foxhunters) but claimed a notable scalp last time and no surprise if he runs well again. His usual pilot can’t do the weight, so James Tudor is a more than adequate substitute.

MAD VICTOR – Unbeaten in four starts this year including a Hunter Chase at Southwell in which he travelled powerfully and quickened away after the second last; simple task in a three-runner affair last time and this is much more of an acid test, but at the top of his game at present and looks the most likely one to take advantage if Gentle George is still off-colour.

MARBLEHEAD – Bold jumping front-runner who finished second to James Pine in this two years ago; recovered from a slow start to win a Leicester Hunter Chase from the front in March, but has since been unimpressive when ultimately the only finisher at Paxford and when a well held second to Chilling Place in the Dudley Cup. Clearly has his own ideas now but undoubtedly a classy animal when on-song; may well set it up for the others.

MRSILVERLINING – Disappeared after two runs in Ireland in 2007 and yet to get round this season, including when producing a blunder-strewn effort in the rear at Bangor.

NOBODY TELLS ME – Produced some decent form last season, winning a Hunter Chase at Taunton and subsequently running third (a fair distance behind the first two) in the Champion Hunter Chase at this meeting; not quite as good during a hard campaign this year and gained his only success in an Andoversford Open last month; can make mistakes but does have place chances on his best form.

ORANGER – Regular in this grade but hard to know what he achieved when a strong-finishing fourth in this last year; caused a minor upset when winning on fast ground at Stratford in March but was tailed off at the same track next time out; this is a stronger renewal than last year and probably best watched.

STORMY CHANCE – Completed the course for the first time when 5L runner-up in a Chaddesley Maiden last month but takes a massive step up in class here and can’t be fancied one little bit in this company.

THE COOL GUY – Very useful bumper performer in his youth but never really fulfilled his potential over obstacles (although did finish 21L second to Denman in a Grade 1); beaten 20L+ over fences and disappeared after an error-strewn performance at Kempton fifteen months ago; has the raw ability to make an impact at this level but probably best watched all the same.

Conclusion – Gentle George is by far the best horse in the race but his dismal Exeter effort remains burnt into the memory; Mad Victor has done absolutely nothing wrong this season and could be the one to take advantage, while James Pine appeals as an each-way option.

7.55 Cheltenham
CHABRIMAL MINISTER – Fine strike rate of late under Rules (five wins from last ten) with four successes coming over at least 3m5f; made up for a fall on his Pointing debut when winning over 3m4f at Flagg, putting him cherry-ripe for this contest. Wouldn’t want the ground to dry out too much but everything else in his favour and a big run looks on the cards; rider has ridden numerous winners in Scandinavia.

DENNIS THE LEGEND – Returned to the Hunter Chasing sphere to win the 3m4f John Corbett Cup at Stratford last year and was doing his best work at the finish when fourth behind Theatre Diva over 3m2f here last month. No easy task under a big weight but promises to stay and obvious shortlist material.

FAIR QUESTION – Plenty of form over marathon trips in the past and relished the testing conditions when running out a wide margin winner at Carlisle on his Hunter Chase debut; looks a certainty to get the trip but worryingly has been raced almost exclusively on soft ground in recent years, so drying conditions would be a major concern.

IT’S LIKE THAT – Successful low grade handicap winner at up to 3m1f last year but has not appeared to stay on both of his attempts over 3m4f in the past, the latest here at Cheltenham after a thirteen month absence. May strip fitter today but has to concede weight all round and looks opposable.

MR ED – Talented and versatile sort who comes into his own over marathon trips on good ground, as he showed when a narrow winner of this very contest last year; not at his best so far this campaign but has his conditions for the first time today so a return to form looks on the cards.

UP THERE – Ordinary sub-3m winner in Ireland but has seemingly improved in Open Points this year; beat a renowned shirker at Howick in March but could only finish last of three finishers next time out in the Dudley Cup, which seemed to highlight his limitations; stamina to prove over this trip.

KING’S WOOD – Multiple winner in 2009 including an Exeter Hunter Chase but bombed out over 3m4f in the John Corbet; back to winning ways this term and stayed 4m really well at Upcott last month; not without a chance on the best of his form but likely to find a handful too good even if running to his best.

BEN RYAN – Moderate maiden under Rules and only has a Maiden Point win to his name; woefully outclassed in lesser Hunter Chases this season and readily opposable in this company.

FLORIDA DREAM – Runner-up over 3m6f a couple of years ago and seemed to stay even further in cross-country company; fifteen lengths third to Theatre Diva and Templer over 3m2f here was a good effort and likely to relish the longer trip, but basically onepaced nowadays and more of a place option than a likely winner.

MARTHA’S KINSMAN – Last win came over 3m6f on good ground at Ascot but that was three years ago; solid effort behind Templer on his Hunter Chase debut but well held next time behind Ice Tea at Bangor; should relish the trip but a bit of a plodder nowadays and others are preferred in this company.

OSSMOSES – Useful stayer back in the day and has been placed on more than one occasion over 4m+; not seen since finishing a good but flattered second to Breaking Silence at Doncaster on his comeback and likely to improve for the step up in trip, but essentially a mudlark and opposable unless there is appreciable rain.

PRELUDE D’ESTRUVAL – Recent miserable form gives him no hope in this company.

SADDLERS BLAZE – Poor maiden under Rules and has yet to win a Point; unlikely stayer on all known form either.

SWEDEN – Most promising last year but generally disappointing this season; back to winning ways in a Mens Open at Flagg (3m4f) last time but that was a meaningless two runner affair in which the 1-4 favourite ran badly (run in a time 15 seconds slower than the race won by Chabrimal Minister); represents top connections and promises to stay but others look more convincing.

THE VENETIAN – Easy winner of a fast ground Confined at Flete Park last month in which the odds-on favourite ran poorly, but was behind from an early stage at Taunton the time before and a likely outsider in this company.

TRICKY TANGLER – Struggling in Restricteds of late and was beaten over 100 lengths in his previous Hunter Chase; hard ride and appeals as the type who will relish a trip, but basically badly outclassed in this grade.

WALTON WAY – On a long losing run since his last Rules win (3m2f, soft) and moderate placed efforts in Points of late doesn’t give any indication that a return to winning ways is on the cards today.

WAYNESWORLD – Easy 1-3 Members success at Garnons was his first of any type since 2007; showed promise when a staying-on fourth behind the likes of My Way De Solzen and Buckingham Bill (races earlier this evening) at Upton last time. Has a fair amount to find but should stay and a decent run at a price wouldn’t surprise.

WHAT OF IT – Best form has come over a maximum of three miles and lost touch after 2m6f when ultimately tailed off at Kelso last time out; unlikely to get involved over this marathon trip.

ATARAXIA – Finally off the mark under a tremendous ride from this pilot two starts ago but essentially a highly reluctant animal and has no real business being in a race of this nature.

Concluson – A highly competitive affair with several holding claims on their best form; Fair Question probably has the best form but is unlikely to relish the drying ground, so Dennis The Legend is marginally preferred ahead of the gallant veteran Chabrimal Minister and last year’s winner Mr Ed.

8.25 Cheltenham
BOB HALL – Enjoys bullying lesser rivals in this sphere and his only defeat in five starts came in the Foxhunters when he was never travelling or jumping with any fluency; this looks much easier and he has some high-class handicap form over this course and distance to his name.

LAUNDE – Last of four chase wins came over 2m on fast ground in April 2009; unconvincing in Hunter Chases and handicaps so far this season and the presence of the veteran owner in the saddle is more of a hindrance than a help; hard to fancy.

MUSTANGSALLYRALLY – Looked set for a successful season when finishing runner-up to Coombe Hill in the Coronation Gold Cup but has failed to build on that form, especially when looking a very hard ride in a Taunton Hunter Chase; nothing really wrong with his second to Thisthatandtother last time out but becoming increasingly hard to win with and time will only tell whether he will take to these conditions.

FERGAL’S FIND – Won a Worcester Hunter Chase last summer in laboured fashion (did not have to be at his best) and essentially disappointing since; only had to turn up to win a desperate Ladies Open at Andoversford last time and plenty to prove in this company at the moment.

POWER KING – 3m handicap chase winner on good ground off 97 fourteen months ago but generally struggling this season; tailed off in his Members, well held fifth at Taunton, and fell at the first at Bonvilston last time – hardly a profile of a potential winner of this.

DISTANT THUNDER – Classy Pointer last season, winning two National Classics, but not anywhere near as good this season; back to form with a fair second over 2m4f at Ludlow last time and has some classy form to his name here at Cheltenham, but unlikely that he has the pace for this sort of trip in this company nowadays.

DR CERULLO – Very consistent Pointer and faced simple task in his Members last time; yet to jump a regulation fence but overall balance of form gives him place claims under conditions which should suit.

GENTLEMAN ANSHAN – Looked potentially high-class when winning two out of two in early 08/09 but not as good this term after a long layoff and ran inexplicably badly at Guilsborough last time; still has the potential to be above average in this sphere but plenty to prove at present.

GOOD COMPANY – Consistent placed form of late, at Kempton and Towcester, tendency to make mistakes will be tested to the limit here and looks stable’s second string, but still has solid place claims on the best of his form. Good or easy ground suits.

HOLY JOE – Formerly useful but a real thinker these days and well held by Good Company on recent Towcester form; not without a chance if putting it all in, but that is a big “if”.

JOHN DIAMOND – Two wins over this sort of trip on fastish ground in 2007 (the latest off 109 but missed 2009 and has been too much of a handful for a novice in Points this season; Adam Wedge on board today is a positive but too many other ifs and buts for him to be recommended in this company.

MIGHTY MATTERS – Presumably suffered a mishap when unseating in the 2008 Topham as he has not been seen since; was a progressive 2m4f-3m chaser granted top of the ground prior to that and if his professional yard has brought him back to peak fitness it would be no surprise if he runs a big race under conditions that should be ideal.

MOLOSTIEP – Lightly raced since a minor handicap chase win in 2007; looked capable of winning in this sphere when running Gentle George close at Newbury a couple of months ago, but most disappointing in an Open next time, although chances are he didn’t stay. Not without a chance on his best form.

NEW STREET EXPRESS – Placed over this trip on fast ground at Folkestone last year but that was in a weak contest and recent Pointing form ordinary; outclassed.

SOME TIMBERING – Ran above himself at Bangor back in February but tailed off in two starts since and has not impressed with his attitude one little bit; big leap of faith required to fancy him today.

Conclusion – Quantity rather than quality here; Bob Hall is head and shoulders above his rivals on overall form and should win, but he isn’t the sort of animal that appeals as one to lump on at a short price, especially in big fields. A fully fit Mighty Matters could well give him a race and appeals as a value alternative. Jonjo second string Good Company isn’t out of it either, with Dr Cerullo the best of the rest.