Hunter Chase Betting Service

Thu, May 6, 2010

Newton Abbot – Thursday May 6th

PERTINENT – Fast ground winner off 108 at Wincanton last April and has since carved out a successful career in novice rider Points under this jockey; clocked an impressive time when beating this season’s winning-most performer at Badbury last time and with conditions in his favour here is likely to be tough to beat.

ALAMBIQUE – Won a 2m6f Hunter Chase here in 2007; successful in a couple of five runner affairs this season before finding Prince de Bersy too strong when upped to Open company at Trebudannon. Stays and jumps well, has won on fast ground but has been kept to softer conditions this season.

APOLLO BLAZE – Promise behind two decent sorts on his comeback but disappointing since in Hunter Chases, particularly so at Exeter last time where he ran out of gas in the home straight; theoretically has a fine chance on the best of his form, but plenty of questions to answer at present.

BEAU SUPREME – Last of his three National Hunt wins came in a firm ground Exeter Hunter in 2007 (2m4f) and has been in steady decline since; returned to winning ways in a Stafford Cross Confined last time but the time wasn’t anything special and he would have been beaten had Karinga Coin not dumped his rider at the last fence. Well beaten in a couple of Hunter Chases previously this term and opposable in this company.

CHARLES STREET – Making his debut in this sphere; enjoyed a purple patch over hurdles in late 2008 but not quite as good over fences despite being placed on numerous occasions. Worryingly sold for just 700 guineas last December and still has to comprehensively prove his stamina over this sort of trip.

MIOCHE D’ESTRUVAL – Rated 125 at his peak under Rules and was a fairly consistent performer in that sphere; badly out of form in Points and Hunter Chases this year (tailed off when unseating at Taunton) and achieved little when second in an old-timers race at Trebudannon last time out. Plenty to prove at present.

PADDY THE PIPER – Campaigned mainly over hurdles since winning his sole chase and has scored seven times over the smaller obstacles; little more than an ordinary Pointer these days and although he ran well against Fully Loaded last time he was well held at the finish and as a result held by Pertinent on a line through that multiple winner. Retains a fair amount of enthusiasm but likely to come up short here.

THIRTYTWO RED – Consistent sort in Hunter Chases on good/soft or quicker ground and ran notably well when fourth over 3m4f at Stratford last May; well beaten in his first two starts in this sphere this term but back to his best since, winning a two finisher Open in which the second suffered a fatal injury and notably finishing a fine second in a decent race at Exeter. Has more experience than most at this level and with conditions in his favour must be given serious consideration.

THUNDER CHILD – Flattered by his close second to an idling Le Duc two starts ago and has since been well beaten over 2m5.5f here; fast ground should suit but has had plenty of chances over the bigger obstacles in the past.

Conclusion – Pertinent and Thirtytwo Red look the pick here and the vote goes to the first named – a rapidly improving sort who has developed a fine relationship with his promising young pilot.

Wetherby – Thursday May 6th

ELIZA DOALOTT – Outstanding Pointer in the last couple of seasons and has won both of her completed Hunter Chases, most recently when readily defeating Pen Gwen at Hexham last time; that rival now 4lbs better off (taking into account allowances) but the mare had plenty in hand that day and as long as the ground doesn’t quicken appreciably looks the one to beat once again.

BLANDINGS CASTLE – Never raced beyond 2m4f under Rules and all four successes came over 2m1f at Newton Abbot; holding his own in Ladies Opens this year but unsurprisingly has been struggling to last home and a similar scenario looks likely here.

BRIZE NORTON – Never lived up to the promise of his ten length defeat of De Soto in a Uttoxeter novice chase in 2008 and was struggling badly in handicaps late last year; has perked up significantly in Points this year (gamely won a big field Confined at Hutton Rudby) and got going too late when third over 2m5f at Sedgefield. Not the easiest of rides but clearly in decent heart at present and a decent run looks on the cards.

FIRST FOUGHT – Regressive selling-class performer under Rules and pulled up on his Pointing debut, but caused a 50/1 shock next time in a Charm Park Open and was only beaten four lengths despite finishing last next time out. Has been seeing out the trip well in Points but never raced beyond 2m6f in 30 starts under Rules and stamina to prove at this level.

JOHNNY VENTURE – Generally moderate these days and the Confined he finished third in last time out was run in a time ten seconds slower than the Ladies Open in which Blandings Castle finished third. Has never raced under Rules and likely to struggle.

ONE FIVE EIGHT – Has a near one in three strike rate in Points but on a long losing run now and has been showing definite signs of temperament; well beaten by both Eliza Doalott and Blandings Castle so far this season and can’t be fancied to overturn the form with either.

PEN GWEN – French Chase winner in 2007 but became very disappointing on this side of the Channel; much improved this term and after winning a Confined on his comeback has found only Robin de Sherwood and Eliza Doalott too good in Hunter Chases. Has a good attitude and 4lbs better off with the mare for the most recent defeat, but she had plenty in hand that day and he may have to play second fiddle once again.

Conclusion – Eliza Doalott is a most likeable character and despite having to concede weight to the boys (before allowances are taken into account) looks set to notch up her eighth win in her last twelve starts. Blandings Castle and Pen Gwen should battle it out for minor honours.

Wincanton – Thursday May 6th

TURTHEN – Top class Pointer who found only Cappa Bleu too good in last year’s Foxhunters and showed no ill-effects from that run when winning twice over this course and distance, including this race by a street. Found conditions against him in this year’s “big one” and time may tell that he lost nothing in defeat behind Ice Tea at Bangor last time out. Conditions are in his favour and he will be very tough to beat, despite the massive burden.

ASK AGAIN – Has won five from six this year, notably when a game winner on fast ground at Exeter last time out; clearly at the top of his game at present but was readily brushed aside by Turthen when suffering his only defeat this year and would have to raise his game significantly if he is to overturn that form today.

LUTTEUR BLEU – Un-genuine Pointer who achieved nothing when winning his Members last time; likely wooden spoon candidate in this company.

OWN LINE – Game enough effort when landing a firm ground Ladies Open at Larkhill last time out but the form is only ordinary and has a mountain to climb against the likes of Turthen, despite conditions being in his favour.

TRADE OFF – Multiple winner down the years but has suffered from pelvic injuries in recent times and his only win this season came in a meaningless two runner Members; flopped at odds of 2-5 last time out and plenty to prove at present, especially over regulation fences (tailed off behind Turthen here on his last try).

COOLERS QUEST – Moderate chaser whose only win came off a mark of just 72 in 2007; has yet to beat a rival on his comeback from a long absence (including when 20L second of two to Trade Off) and can’t be remotely fancied against some of these opponents.

Conclusion – Barring accidents this looks like Turthen’s for the taking once again; Ask Again is a tough and in-form opponent but Charlie Fox’s star readily disposed of him when they met earlier this season.