Paul Jones Private Service – 8th & 9th May 10

Fri, May 7, 2010

Saturday, May 8th

This is the final week’s copy (extended after missing one week earlier in the season to incorporate the Swinton Hurdle card) of this NH Season Weekend preview and I hope it has been of use to you and you have enjoyed it using it in addition to your own thoughts. Summing up, it was a bookmaker-friendly spring that’s for sure looking back at the big three spring Festivals so therefore I was pleased to eke out a profit on the Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post Portfolio Service, albeit a small one, but I will seriously think about whether I offer the Wednesday mid-week early look at the big races again as that proved to be a struggle. No excuses for both but I fear the hardest winter we have endured in years didn’t help and contributed to a host of hard-to-find winners at the major Festivals especially the lack of trends-based winners at Cheltenham. I hope you enjoy the Flat Season and will consider rejoining me again for the next jumps season.

2.00 HAYDOCK

An unusually small field for this Listed handicap and these are all exposed so it doesn’t really get my juices flowing. Only 9lbs covers all seven runners and, if pressed, I would look at Mia’s Boy for place-only purposes as there are less question marks about him being race-fit unlike the majority of his rivals and also in form but no strong view on who will win. If Ordnance Row is fully wound up, he would take the beating but you never quite know with Hannon’s horses until the market is forming.

2.10 LINGFIELD

Alain De Royer-Dupre brought over Sabana Perdida to win this Group 3 fillies’ race two years ago and then she won the Windsor Forest Stakes at Royal Ascot on her next start so we have to seriously respect the fact he brings over Reggane who has a class advantage over these and should really start favourite and justify that tag. Unraced as a 2yo, you can only imagine she should improve again as a 4yo and the best effort of her five starts last year was when second to Ghanaati in the Coronation Stakes, which is comfortably the best form on offer. If she is close to being fully fit, and I imagine she will be if she is being sent over to Britain for her seasonal debut, she should win with a degree of comfort and then I imagine it will be the same Royal Ascot target as with his winner of this race two years ago.

2.20 ASCOT

Barshiba continues to be under-rated but Duncan was a progressive horse that caught my eye more than once last season and looks the just the type to keep progressing as a 5yo under Gosden’s care. The fact he is a course and distance winner bodes well but the only thing that just tempers enthusiasm is that he was beaten less than a length in the Coronation Cup last season so I suspect he is being trained for that race again so this is a prep and he is therefore likely not to be fully wound up but this is only a Listed race so hopefully his class can overcome that.

2.40 LINGFIELD

Henry Cecil has won this Oaks Trial more times than I care to remember and relies on Timepiece who was Oaks favourite when beaten in the Feilden Stakes three weeks ago. Cecil has voiced concerns whether she fully stays 1m4f but the same was true of his Midday last season in this race but she hacked up and it could be she is just too good for these for stamina to come into this as it’s only a small field. For a filly likely to start a warm order, I feel she could be a little vulnerable and Bebopalula made all to win by 5 lengths last time so may choose to make it a test and attempt to stretch the stamina of Timepiece and she could be the value as a consequence.

2.50 ASCOT

The market moves could easily be influential for this tough fillies’ handicap and it’s not a race I want to get involved in as too many fillies have yet to run this season and they are fickle creatures so we don’t really know which have trained on for another season or not. At a push I would nominate Blue Angel as I felt she may have run into a high class filly in Aviate here ten days ago when given a ride that suggested she would come on for the run as she wasn’t really put in that five-runner race until Aviate had flown. The top weight Good Again has each-way claims. A ready winner of this handicap last season, she is off a 10lbs higher mark though but had a sighter on the all-weather (her only start this season) which suggested she was being aimed at another crack at this prize.

3.00 HAYDOCK

An unusually big field for this staying handicap and last season’s runner-up Green Mile is likely to catch many an eye for Tony Martin and Paul Carberry but he has become somewhat of a talking horse for me. I quite like Elzahann here if it doesn’t rain as she is a real Good-ground mare with all five career wins coming on Good ground or faster and appeared to have her whole season geared towards the Pertemps Final by Ferdy Murphy but she missed the cut so ran at Bangor instead and ran down the field on unsuitable ground. Only 3lbs higher than when winning this race 12 months ago, she now has her ground for the first time since her seasonal debut in October and is fresher than most so she makes plenty of each-way appeal. Given the form of the Pipe yard and the fact Mous Of Men came good at this time last season and won two weeks ago, I would consider him to be the biggest threat.

3.10 LINGFIELD

When is Aidan O’Brien’s string going to catch fire? That’s the question. Having sent over the last two winners of this Derby Trial, he is double-handed this season with Captain James Cook looking the principal hope on jockey bookings over Don Carlos but we have seen O’Brien second strings win classic trials before. Sir Michael Stoute usually has a runner here but has not won this Derby Trial for many years so I question how high his Desert Myth is up his pecking order (though he was down to run in the Dee Stakes) and I can see Hot Prospect taking this for the in-form Michael Jarvis yard. Impressive at Sandown last season before boiling over on his next start in a Listed race, he ran respectably on his seasonal debut at Newmarket when third to Derby hope Coordinated Cut and the Jarvis horses are in better form now than then so he would be my fancy.

3.25 ASCOT

A typically ultra competitive Victoria Cup where the draw is likely to play a big role as usual so I would prefer to see the 1m handicap on the straight course before playing if I wanted to get involved but I am not really one for sprint handicaps, if it can be called that over 7f. Mabait looks the obvious one for Cumani and Fallon who are chasing a five-timer but a 10lbs rise is big enough for winning last time. Therefore, if I was throw a couple in the mix I would look at the lightly-raced Oratory was a good third in the Spring Cup and the top weight Dunelight as I do like Clive Cox’s runners in the Ascot straight course handicaps and Dunelight is a C/D winner who has now dropped to his lowest mark for four years and John Fahy also takes off a valuable 5lbs. He is a horse at his best in big fields so this drop in class from Group and Listed races he has been contesting could be in his favour.

3.35 HAYDOCK

I still tend to view the Swinton Handicap Hurdle as the last major race of the jumps season rather than the first and like the chances of Hunterview for a number of reasons not least what a good record novices have in this race and a good number of those novices were four-year-olds and also trained by the Pipe yard who finished ‘Whitbread’ day on a high with a treble so their horses are in great form. I suggested Hunterview was a decent bet when he won at the Scottish National Meeting where he didn’t just win but won in terrific style and although this is a far bigger field, I am hopeful he can put up another big performance so is of each-way interest. I still like the fact Scudamore chose him over Notus De La Tour for the Fred Winter (wrong decision as it turned out) which surprised many at the time and I just he feel he is a massively in-form novice in a race in which they have a great record so he is the horse to interest me most. Dan Breen is another Pipe novice and it wouldn’t surprise me if he returned to form now in handicap company whilst Zarinava also catches the eye for the Jessica Harrington that have pillaged this race before and she is a real two-miler so this will be far more up her street since running down the field in the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle and has a big chance on her Doncaster defeat of My Petra. Open as usual but my two against the field would be Hunterview and Zarinava.

3.45 LINGFIELD

I was most disappointed with Tranquil Tiger’s run in the Gordon Richards Stakes last time out and he is just not one to fully trust so would like to find something to beat him here despite being the highest-rated horse in the race and believe Alainmaar has just the progressive profile to do that especially with Michael Jarvis’ horses running well at present and receiving a stone from Tranquil Tiger. Hopefully he may also get an easy lead and, although he has got some flak in his career (though not so much lately), there are few jockeys I would rather have on my side that Richard Hills on potential front runners in small fields.

4.45 HAYDOCK

I think the best bet on the Haydock card is Evens And Odds in this conditions sprint as he should enjoy dropping back in class after a good run in the Abernant Stakes (Listed). I backed him that day as had a feeling his run in the Cammidge Trophy was a sighter for that Listed event as I was told by a reliable paddock judge he needed the run at Donny. When I saw him in the paddock at HQ he was certainly very well muscled up behind and he ran well for a long way until lack of class told close home taking on the likes of Equiano who has since won the Palace House Stakes. It’s possible that if he needed the Donny run, he may have also just needed it in the Abernant Stakes despite his muscle definition so the combination of two runs under the belt and dropping in class could easily see him return victorious here. Prime Defender strikes me as the main danger providing the rains keep away as he loves fast ground though the forecast isn’t great.

Sunday, May 9th

4.05 LEOPARDSTOWN

This has been the best Derby Trial over the last 30 years and Aidan O’Brien bids to win it for a seventh time in ten years with Cape Blanco who is his number one of his three entries and he might be worth a little dig in the Derby market before he runs given that of those last six O’Brien winners, two won the Derby and two more finished second. The worry is the slow start of the yard who are normally firing by now but are not as yet. If it came up soft however (unlikely as they are calling if Firm right now), I wouldn’t dismiss his stablemate Midas Touch here as he was most impressive on such a surface winning by seven lengths before running fourth behind his lesser-fancied stablemate Jan Vermeer in a French Group 1 in November. By Galileo out of a Darshaan mare, he looks all stamina so would probably need the rain.