Derby Service – Day 1 | bettrends.co.uk

Derby Service – Day 1

Thu, Jun 3, 2010

by Ian Grimwood

1.40 EPSOM – Investec Diomed Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m114y
Looking at the Diomed from a trends point of view makes interesting reading. The last four winners were aged seven or eight, pointing to a strong run from Ordnance Run. But, he has a bit to find with Bushman on their recent run at Windsor. Hannon’s runner employed unusual front running tactics that day, and after setting what can only be described as a very sedate pace, looked vulnerable to Simcock’s runner who was tracking his every move. With a quarter of a mile to run, Fallon made his move and soon had the race in the bag. It will be interesting to see if a change of tactics will help reverse the placings. Classic Colori would appear to have something to prove as no three-year-old has won this race in the last decade. A quick look at the form would also suggest that. He may have won the Spring Cup at Lingfield in March but the runner-up, Greyfriarschorista, has hardly franked the form since. Despite the fact the he was carrying a penalty next time, I was disappointed with him at Kempton as he never seemed to settle in the race and was beaten a fair way out. He was then thrown in the deep-end in the French 2000 Guineas where he finished last. I am sure there are races to be won with him but I think he may pay the price for his relative inexperience here. Only two of the last ten winners managed to carry a penalty to success, so whilst it is possible to win off 9st 7lbs, there is only a 1 in 5 chance of doing so. With that in mind, Alexandros looks to have a point to prove even though he is dropping down in grade. His best effort last season came when narrowly failing to beat Paco Boy in the Lockinge but he failed to build on that in the Queen Anne. On his latest start, he was very disappointing, trailing in well beaten at Meydan. He has been given a bit of time since then so there is a chance that it has freshened him up but I feel that he can be a bit keen for his own good and Epsom is not a place to race with the choke out. Add to that Saeed Bin Suroor’s in and out form and I see him as one to take on. From a trainer point of view, Gerard Butler has won the race twice in the last eight years which is good news for followers of Beauchamp Xerxes. Like many others, I didn’t give him much of a chance at Goodwood last time but he proved us all wrong to get the verdict from the good benchmark Vitznau. Prior to that his form was very hit or miss and I am not sure Gerard Butler knew what his trip was although I am sure he does now. The dreaded ‘bounce factor’ has to be considered but he does seem to run well on undulating tracks and I would give him an each-way chance. There hasn’t been an outright winning favourite since Ian Balding’s Trans Island in 2000 although Gerard Butler’s Nayyir was sent off the 5/1JF when winning in 2002. At the time of writing there hasn’t been a market formed but, because of connections, I wouldn’t be surprised to see MABAIT at the head of affairs, which does make me slightly nervous. He achieved a four timer by beating Tartan Gigha at Sandown in April and that rival then franked the form by winning a classy handicap at the Guineas Meeting. Backed into 4/1 favourite he almost followed up in the Victoria Cup but just failed to last home and was caught in the shadow of the post. Personally, I think he is better suited to a turning track, which is what he gets here and with Cumani and Fallon seemingly having winners for fun, he looks the one they all have to beat. Penitent was heavily supported for the Lincoln and he rewarded that confidence in the style of a very nice horse. Remember, he had only made five starts at that point, winning twice and finishing runner-up on the other three occasions but he showed experience beyond his years to win by an easy 2 1/2L. He must surely rank as the biggest threat, as like the Cumani runner, he looks a horse a huge upward curve.

2.10 EPSOM - Investec Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m114y
The trends for this classy handicap are a bit thin on the ground, with ‘age’ appearing to be the only main pointer. Four-year-olds have won seven of the last ten renewals and we could do worse than MULL OF KILLOUGH. Ignore his last run in the Spring Cup at Newbury as he was badly hampered at the 2f marker which completely killed his chances and Jamie Spencer did the sensible thing and brought him home in his own time once his chance had gone. He won three times as a two-year-old but looks to have really strengthened up over the winter and run a cracker to finish 3^rd in the Lincoln behind Penitent who runs in the opening race. Although he has won on fast ground he wouldn’t want it too quick so if the ground dries out too much it might be worth looking elsewhere. Perhaps that is the reason that Jamie Spencer rides Jordaura who has done little wrong on his three starts this year. I thought he was unlucky at Haydock last time when he just failed to reel in the eventual winner. He is up another 2lbs here but I think there could be more to come on only his third attempt at a mile. Richard Fahey is mob-handed but bottom weight Deadly Secret looks his main hope. He isn’t the easiest horse to win with as he failed to settle in his races last term. However, he was gelded over the winter and looked a much calmer individual on his reappearance at Beverley last month when he lack of a recent run took it’s toll. He should come on plenty for the experience and he could surprise one or two from a feather weight. Extraterrestrial, is a solid bench mark but he certainly won’t appreciate the drying ground and he is perhaps a few pounds too high at the moment. Sunnyside Tom is back to the same mark as when winning at Hamilton last year but that was only a modest four runner affair and I think he will get found out in this line up. Of the rest, Tartan Gigha won this race last year before running a cracker when just failing in the Cambridgeshire. He was back in the Winners’ Enclosure at Newmarket winning a competitive handicap at the Guineas Meeting but he has gone up to a career high mark as a result and there is the fear that the handicapper has him now. Vitznau is another with plenty of weight but he ran well enough when just failing to get the better of Beauchamp Xerxes at Goodwood last time off only a 1lb lower mark. However, he isn’t an easy horse to catch right and may just need to drop a few pounds.

2.45 EPSOM – Investec Coronation Cup (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f10y
The Coronation Cup used to feature in the summer Festivals Betting Guide and isn’t a bad race from a trends point of view. Horses making their seasonal reappearance tend to struggle in this race so High Heeled gets an early bath. The second trend surrounding form tells us that horses which failed to finish in the top three in Group company on their most recent start don’t win the Coronation Cup. Of the more fancied runners, Cavalryman misses out as he could only finish 5^th in the Dubai Sheema Classic. That could possibly be a dangerous assumption to make as his 3^rd in the Arc was impressive. A similar comment applies to Youmzain who wasn’t far behind in 8^th at Meydan. Of course he also ran brilliantly to finish 2^nd in the Arc but I can’t help but think that he is destined to always be the bridesmaid and never the bride. At his stage we can also discount the long shots Bashkirov, Dixie Music and Clowance. Previous Group 1 winning form is also important, so the lightly raced and unexposed South Easter is the final one to miss the cut. That leaves us with three and with Aidan O’Brien winning three of the last five renewals, I am going to give FAME AND GLORY the edge. You would have to say that he was desperately unlucky to have been born in the same year as Sea The Stars as without John Oxx’s superstar, he would have been a dual Derby winner and winner of the Irish Champion Stakes. I make no excuses for his run in the Arc, when he finished 6^th, but I think he was just over the top when running poorly in the Champion Stakes. O’Brien has always tending to start the season slowly, so I was not surprised to see him suffer defeat on his reappearance but that effort paid dividends as he ran out a convincing winner of the Group 3 Mooresbridge Stakes and the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup. With STS now retired, I can see him sweeping all before him this season and races like the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and Eclipse look likely targets. Sariska, last years Oaks winner, finished in front of him in the Champion Stakes last season, so looks the one most likely to throw down a challenge. She confirmed her well being with a solid defeat of Midday (who must be sick of the sight of her) in a York Group 2 last month and we all know she acts on the track. The top class fillies, Triptych and In The Groove, both won this race but since then the girls haven’t had such a good time of it, which is partly another reason why I am favouring O’Brien’s runner. For the each-way punters, I would have a look at Jukebox Jury at around 12/1. His victory in last months Jockey Club Stakes makes him of interest as it is a race that has proved a good pointer in the past to the Coronation Cup. Okay, he didn’t beat much at Newmarket but he did it readily enough and it must be remembered that he is a Group 1 winner. He gets on very well with Royston Ffrench and with stamina on his side I can see him staying on strongly in the closing stages.

3.25 EPSOM – Investec Challenge (Handicap) Cl2 1m2f18y
No trends to help us here as basically any age, any trainer and any price will do. Firstly, I am going to get rid of Ramona Chase who is racing from 6lbs out of the handicap and struggling for form. With my connection to the Johnston yard, let’s have a look at Tartan Gunna first. I have little doubt that trip and ground will suit and he remains on a very attractive mark at the moment, the same mark as when last winning at Goodwood. On his last start, he ran well to finish 3^rd at York when he had the recent Redcar winner Forte Dei Marmi behind him in 4^th and a repeat performance should see him go close once again. My only slight reservation is that he is a horse that always looks vulnerable to a less exposed rival, although to be honest, I don’t see too many in this line up. Willie Haggas’ filly, Leceile, could be one after a brace of wins over 10f last season before just failing to record the hat-trick in a Listed Fillies’ Handicap at Goodwood next time. She had a long absence to overcome when making her reappearance at Chester in May but having enjoyed the run of the race out in front, she appeared to blow up when headed over a furlong from home. That was to be expected and I think she remains on a mark that could see her run a much better race here. I also think that we haven’t seen the best of KINGS DESTINY so I am going to do something I don’t usually do, back a horse on a career high mark. I hear on the grapevine that he has really strengthened up from three to four and that certainly seemed evident by the way he won at Lingfield in April, when he made all for a never troubled 2L success. That saw him rise to a lofty 107 so I am slightly surprised to see that Michael Jarvis is sticking to handicaps rather than make the jump into Listed company. That suggests to me that his handler things there are still races to be won with him, which is why he gets my vote. Of the rest, I expect that Australia Day will make the running but unless he is given too much rope I can see him setting it up for a closer. Al Zarooni has already made a name for himself on these shores, so his Meydan winner Antinori certainly isn’t overlooked lightly although it remains to be seen how he will cope on his first start since February off a career high mark of 102.

4.05 EPSOM - Investec Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y
This year’s Oaks has the look of one of the most open renewals for years, although hopefully the trends will help narrow down the 15 runners. The first one to consider is that of recent form. Seven of the last ten winners has been successful on their most recent start so that suggests that the winner will be one of Akdarena, Aviate, Awe Inspiring, Gertrude Bell, Marie De Medici, Meeznah, Sajjhaa and Snow Fairy. When it comes to winning trainers, none can touch Henry Cecil who is bidding for his ninth Oaks success with Aviate and Timepiece. Michael Jarvis isn’t one to have a runner in the Oaks without due cause and it is certainly interesting that he considers Sajjhaa up to the job after just the one start in a Sandown maiden. Finally, on a positive tone, Ralph Beckett caused a shock when Look Here won at 33/1 in 2008 and his runner this year, Ceilidh House, has a very similar profile. Barry Hills has never won the Oaks during his long career so that is something of a negative for Champagnelifestyle. Aidan O’Brien hasn’t had it all his own way in the Oaks, despite winning it twice in the last decade, suggesting that his principal runner, Remember When, can’t be backed with any degree of certainty. When it comes to the draw it would seem best to be drawn in single figures, just like seven of the last eleven winners. Of those that remain in the running at this point, Akdarena (13), Gertrude Bell (14), Meeznah (11), Snow Fairy (15) and Timepiece (10) all appear to be up against it. The betting is also a good pointer as nine of the last ten winners came from the first five in the betting. At the time of writing, Aviate, Rumoush, Sajjhaa, Timepiece and Remember When fill those all important places. So at this stage in the proceedings, Aviate, Awe Inspiring, Marie De Medici, and Sajjhaa head affairs so lets finally have a look at the trials to see if we can narrow it down further. The Musidora hadn’t been the best of guides until Sariska turned the tables last year. Interestingly, the previous three fillies to do the York/Epsom double were all trained by Henry Cecil, very strong vibes for Aviate. Only the brilliant Ouija Board has managed to win the Oaks on the back of victory in the Pretty Polly Stakes which is worrying news for supporters of Mark Johnston’s Marie De Medici. Although they all have one or anther negatives to overcome Gertrude Bell (winner of the Cheshire Oaks), Snow Fairy (winner of the Height Of Fashion Stakes) deserve close scrutiny, as does Timepiece and Ceilidh House (2^nd and 3^rd in the Lingfield Oaks Trial).

SHORTLIST
AVIATE
(SAJJHAA)
(CEILIDH HOUSE)

CONCLUSION
It’s hardly surprising that given Henry Cecil’s record in the Oaks, AVIATE comes out best. She meets all of the trends head on, a last time out winner in the Musidora (a race in which Cecil’s previous Oaks winners have used t good effect), sits nicely towards the head of the betting and has a perfect draw in stall 1. Her pedigree doesn’t guarantee that she will get 1m4f, but her grand-dam won the Cheshire Oaks and there was enough encouragement at York to suggest that stamina shouldn’t be an issue. The fact that Tom Queally has opted for her ahead of Cecil’s other classy filly, Timepiece, also bodes well for her and after the disappointment of the 1000 Guineas I am sure that both jockey and trainer are keen to bloody the nose of those in authority.

Sajjhaa doesn’t have the ideal profile of an Oaks winner. Un-raced at two, she only made her racecourse debut a fortnight ago but what a debut it was. Despite a poor start, there was only one winner with a quarter of a mile to run and she ran on readily under a hands and heels ride for a 7L success. Of course, this is a million miles away from that Sandown maiden and she will need to improve if she is too figure here. My main concern would be her size. She is quite a big filly and Epsom doesn’t always suit animals of that build.

The final filly for the shortlist is Ceilidh House, who was placed in the Lingfield Oaks Trial, just like Beckett’s previous winner Look Busy. She is another who is completely unexposed and capable of any amount of improvement although to be fair, she will need to if she is to trouble the judge. An impressive winner on her sole start at two, she looked in need of the run at Lingfield and I understand that connections were delighted with her performance. Her racing style and pedigree suggest that 12f won’t pose any problems and at around 12/1 looks solid each-way material.

4.50 EPSOM – Investec Surrey Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f
Richard Hannon has won this race twice in the last decade and at the weights looks to have a reasonable change of achieving the hat-trick with LUCKY GENERAL. He has some pretty solid form in the bank which includes a 3^rd place finish in a valuable sales race at Doncaster before winning the Goffs Million. For his seasonal reappearance, Hannon chanced his arm by running in the Craven Stakes but the mile seemed beyond him and for his next start he was dropped back to 6f at Windsor where he was only just over 3L behind the classy and progressive Triple Aspect. All three of his wins have come over 6f so it remains to be seen if he can be as effective over a furlong further but his pedigree suggests to me that is may prove his ideal trip this season. I am not going to give up in Layla’s Hero just yet but wasn’t he disappointing at Haydock last time? He did rear at the start which didn’t help his chances but he never looked at ease which was surprising given that he had won on that type of ground in the past. I am convinced that he is better than that so I am not writing him off just yet. I also like the look of Mon Cadeaux despite his lack lustre start to the season. I am willing to overlook his last effort in the French 2000 Guineas as the trip was always going to be against him but I think he is worth another chance over 7f. I thought he ran a perfectly good race on his reappearance at Ascot in April, beaten just over 1L in a Listed contest. He stayed on at the one pace in the closing stages giving me confidence that the extra furlong here will suit.

5.25 EPSOM – Investec Opportunity Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 7f
This looks a really hot contest and a strong case could be argued for many of the runners. I know for a fact that AL FARAHIDI is very well regarded by connections and it is easy to see why based on his effort in the Silver Bowl last month. It seemed as though he was there foe the taking, especially as he appeared to go off like a scolded cat, but he stuck to his task well and only narrowly failed to repel the challenge of Balducci. The first time blinkers were on that day so it remains to be seen if they will have the desired effect second time around but with his running style he could prove very difficult to peg back if allowed too easy a lead as they come down the Epsom hill. My main concern is that he doesn’t get into a race too early with Cansili Star who made all when finally losing his maiden tag at Lingfield last time. He did get the run of the race that day and I think he will find it much tougher in handicap company. Richard Hannon has won this race twice in the last four years so Kajima has to rank as a live wire especially as he is on a hat-trick. His hold up style of racing could prove the down fall to the selection which Richard Hughes a master at timing a late run. However, he has already won over 9f at Epsom this season so I am hoping that the trip will find him out. Nosedive was highly tried last season and run some nice races in defeat at a higher level than this. His best effort this season came at Nottingham last time which coincided with a drop down the weights. I am convinced that he has that touch of class needed to be competitive in a race such as this and I believe that we will see improvement for this step up in trip.