2010-2011 Free Blue Square Premier Preview

Tue, Aug 3, 2010

By Dan Tory

OUTRIGHT

Last season’s Blue Square Premier turned out to be a bit of a shock result as the two big guns, Oxford United and Luton Town, failed to top the league as was expected. However, a more than capable Stevenage Borough side stepped into the breach to reach the football league for the first time. With the two sides stepping down from the football league not looking as classy as the two sides that have replaced them, this season’s Blue Square Bet Premier looks to be even more competitive.

As with last year, Luton Town look rock solid. They have consolidated their position in non-league football and strengthened their side with the addition of experienced full-back Dan Gleeson and top goal scorer Danny Crow from Cambridge. However, I can see complacency setting in again so the 2/1 for them to top the league still looks rather stingy. Another miserly offering from the bookies comes by way of the second favourites Crawley Town. I’d started writing this preview at the end of June and really fancied Crawley at 33/1 to mount a title push. They were slightly unlucky last year to narrowly miss out on the play-offs and I’d heard whispers that controversial manager Steve Evans had a massive transfer kitty given to him by the new owners. By now though, this is no longer a secret so odds of 6/1 look woefully short. From experience of Manchester City in the Premier League you can tell that a team needs time to gel so this price on Crawley looks down to hype rather than results. Evans has been on the wrong side of some suspect dealings in the past and I wouldn’t put it past Crawley going into administration by the end of the season if they don’t look to be in the position to reach the football league.

Therefore, I see last year’s play-off runner-up YORK CITY to go one better and regain their place in the football league. As of the end of July, the Minstermen have managed to keep hold of star striker and top scorer Richard Brodie. The 27 goals that he scored in the league last season may be irreplaceable so, if Martin Foyle is able to keep him at Bootham Crescent, York should mount a solid title push. Brodie has struck up a decent partnership with Michael Gash in pre-season and the two could turn out to be a rather lethal pairing. I think that their price of 12/1 is too big considering the resurgence that they have experienced with Foyle at the helm. York are deadly at home, with only the two promoted sides, Stevenage Borough and Oxford United, having better home records than them in the league last year. They will have to sort their away form out though as eight losses away from Bootham Crescent would be too many this year for them to be serious contenders. From what I saw of them on two occasions last year, they looked very solid at the back and always look to score goals so cannot see any reason why they won’t be pushing for that elusive automatic promotion slot.

Bettrends advice

York City – 12/1 (general)

TOP SCORER

In the top goal scorer market, I think this season it could be wide open with so many teams vying for the top places in the league. As previously mentioned, RICHARD BRODIE is more than likely going to have a good season once again so has to have a cracking chance. As a footballer, he has everything. He is a young player with bags of talent, a great engine, solid in the air, good with the ball at his feet, a football brain and a lethal shot on him. Basically, he is the real deal and should be playing at a higher level. I have seen him in recent years muscle the most physical centre backs in non league football off of the ball as though they weren’t there and go past the quickest full-backs with consummate ease. He undoubtedly will be the focal point of York’s attacking moves and, given his lethality in front of goal, he should hit the back of the net upward of 30 times this season and a tally like that will certainly leave him in very good stead.

Another player of a similar ilk is Luton Town’s TOM CRADDOCK. I saw him in the final league game of last season and, when most of the other players on show looked like they were taking a breather, Craddock was still busting a gut to beat his man and get into the box. He got his name on the score sheet that day but could have had at least a hat-trick had he been more clinical with his finishing. He will be turning out for one of the best sides in the league week in week out and is certain to bag a decent amount of goals.

A bit of an outsider that may be worth looking at is DANNY FORREST of Barrow. Although he hasn’t seemed to be the most prolific of strikers since he moved to Crawley from Halifax back in 2008, he is an established forward at this level and may blossom with a fresh start at Holker Street. Barrow are one of the sides that struggled last year but hit a good run of form at the back end of the season and finished comfortably mid-table. With only Jason Walker managing to get into double figures for the season, joint managers Dave Bayliss and Darren Sheridan may have found the man in Forrest to propel them further up the league this year and comfortably away from the danger zone.

Bettrends advice

Richard Brodie – 10/1 (Blue Square)

Tom Craddock – 10/1 (Blue Square)

Danny Forrest e/w – 80/1 (Blue Square)

PROMOTION

One side that I think could be a bit of a surprise package this year is WREXHAM. The Welsh side were solid at the back last year but struggled to score goals. They finished the season with the fourth best defensive record but the fifth worst goal scoring record. Manager Dean Saunders has met a bit of opposition at The Racecourse Ground from both fans and the board but the fact that they have stuck with him for another season suggests that they still think he has the credentials to take the Dragons back to the football league. Saunders has brought in veteran striker Andy Morrell to partner Andrew Mangan to make the Welsh side’s strike force look that bit more potent. Although I think topping the league may just be out of their reach this year, I think they have a great chance of reaching the play-offs, so the 10/1 available on them to be promoted looks more than fair.

Bettrends advice

Wrexham to be promoted – 10/1 (general)