2010-2011 Free League One Preview

Tue, Aug 3, 2010

By Neil Hubbard

OUTRIGHT

All the talk about League 1 this pre-season has centred around Southampton who start this season at no bigger than 5/2 to win the title. Their ten point deduction clearly hindered any promotion aspirations they had last term but they at least had the consolation of winning the JP Trophy. They ultimately finished seven points off the play-offs last term despite at one stage looking like realistic contenders for the end of season lottery and it’s not hard to see why they’re so heavily fancied to return to the Championship. After a slow start, where they won just one of their opening 10 games, only Champions Norwich accumulated more points in the final 36 games and they look good things for promotion at the very least.

With the Saints dominating the market it could be worth looking for each-way interest in some of the bigger priced teams. Last year’s relegated teams, Peterborough, Plymouth and Sheff Wed, all look solid enough and supporters of those teams will be fancying their chances of bouncing back. Looking at last year’s League 1 table we see that Norwich (1st), Charlton (4th) and Southampton (7th) all fared well in their bids to return straight back to the Championship so there’s certainly hope for the three relegated teams this year. However, their chances are reflected in the prices, although the 18/1 about Plymouth may be a tad generous if Peter Reid adapts well to domestic management (the Pilgrims are his first job in five years).

HUDDERSFIELD, not for the first time, were well fancied last season before losing out. Their away form has been a stumbling block for a couple of seasons and that is an area that needs major improvement. Of their 12 league defeats last season, 11 came on the road. Overall, they’re actually not too far away from troubling the judge though and if Lee Clark can somehow make them tougher to beat on the road then they’re almost certain to be in the automatic promotion picture. Jordan Rhodes made an instant impact after joining from Ipswich last year while Clark has further strengthened this summer with Joe Garner an eye catching loan arrival from Notts Forest. Midfield accusations of the experienced Joey Gudjonsson and the potentially top class Scottish B International Scott Arnfield add further quality and this year could finally be the year for the Terriers.

Looking further down the betting and Andy Scott’s BRENTFORD immediately jump off the page. A 9th place finish last year was a very decent effort for a side in their first year back in the 3rd tier and it was only a league high 20 draws that stopped further progress. They were defensively sound last year with only the top 4 conceding fewer goals but if they are to progress then they need more action at the other end. Charlie McDonald top scored with 15 league strikes and last year’s experience won’t have been wasted on him so there is every chance he can improve on that, especially if he can link up with fans favourite Nicky Forster who returns to Griffin Park. Toumani Diagouraga has been brought in permanently after impressing in a loan spell last season to give the midfield important continuity and they could easily sneak into the promotion race this season.

Bettrends Advice:

Huddersfield – 8/1 (general)

Brentford – 40/1 (Bet365, Skybet, Coral)

HANDICAP

On the handicap, new boys BOURNEMOUTH look worthy of an interest in receipt of 36pts from Bet365. The Cherries were one of the success stories from last year, finishing 2nd in League 2 after been deducted 17pts the previous campaign. Bret Pittman was key to their success, scoring 26 goals, and keeping hold of him will be key to their season’s chances. However, manager Eddie Howe has made some shrewd signings, bringing in Accrington striker Michael Symes and Hereford midfielder Marc Pugh. Both have it to prove at this level but they look worth chancing with a top half finish not beyond them which could be enough to seal a handicap win.

Bettrends Advice:

Bournemouth +36pts – 18/1 Bet365

TOP SCORER

Like the side he plays for, RICKY LAMBERT dominates the market. Southampton’s main man is actually going for a 3rd consecutive top scorer title having notched 31 last term and then having shared it with 29 with Simon Cox in 2008/09. Leading the line for a team pretty much guaranteed a top six finish means he will once again be in the goals and although strike partner Lee Barnard will also get his fair share Lambert looks worth an investment despite his predictably short price. Peterborough’s forwards shot them to promotion two years ago and as it stands both Craig Mackail-Smith and Aaron McLean should be the front two once again. Bet365 seem to have got their pricing wrong about McClean, having him chalked up at 25/1 compared to the rest of the industry who have him around the 14/1 mark (as short as 10s in a place). If both stay fit, and start, then they should easily hit 15+ goals. Marcus Tudgay is another interesting one at Sheff Wed. Much will depend on if they can keep hold of him before the window closes. That said, at a bigger price, Brighton’s GLENN MURRAY may find himself finding the onion bag frequently this season. Since arriving from Rochdale in January 2008 he has managed; 9 in 20, followed by 11 in 18 and then 12 in 25 last year. With big things expected of the Seagulls under Gus Poyet, Murray could be the man to fire them into a promotion push.

Bettrends Advice:

Ricky Lambert – 9/2 (general)

Glenn Murray – 28/1 (BlueSq, 888Sport)

RELEGATION

Rookie boss Paul Dickov looks to have his work cut out keeping OLDHAM in League 1 this year. Having only survived by 2pts last year it’s difficult to see where the necessary improvement will come from to keep their heads above water this campaign. Last year’s top scorer Pawel Abbot has departed to join Charlton and although Dickov may turn out to be a decent manger his first job in the hot seat could be a rough one.

Bettrends Advice:

Oldham – 7/2 – (Bet365, Coral)