2010-11 Free Euro Football Preview

Mon, Aug 9, 2010

by Gary Emmerson

FRANCE
France is the first of the European Leagues to get underway this Saturday and Ligue 1 looks the usual complicated puzzle to solve. Lyon and Marseille are proving hard to split with the bookmakers and Bordeaux, who disappointed in finished sixth last season, will make it a three-way fight if the layers are correct.

Auxerre’s third place finish last year came despite season-opening odds of 500/1 for the title and that offers hope of potential shocks in France and my selection for the league crown this season is Montpellier, who showed for much of 2009/10 that they have significant potential when finish fifth. Available at 66/1 with Victor Chandler, who go a fifth of the odds for a top three finish, they should be backed. Alternatively, they are available to simply finish in the top three at odds of 20/1 with Paddy Power.

In the relegation market, newly-promoted Arles-Avignon and Brest are expected to make a swift departure from Ligue 1, but the final place in the drop zone is less clear. Sochaux struggled for goals last season and also leaked them at the other end and at 3/1 with Paddy Power they look a decent proposition to be relegated.

BETTRENDS ADVICE
Montpellier – to win the title (each-way) – 66/1 (Victor Chandler)
Sochaux – to be relegated – 3/1 (Paddy Power)

GERMANY
With Bayern Munich as short as 1/2 to win the Bundesliga, which begins on August 20, the market to get involved in is without the reigning champions. Behind Munich last year, the next five teams were separated by just 10 points and it looks likely to be a similar scenario again this time around. Stuttgart are the ones who catch my eye and can be backed at 10/1 with Blue Square and 888Sport. The selection had the worst goalscoring record of the top six but their dismal start to the last campaign which saw Stuttgart lose seven and win just two of their opening 14 games had a lot to do with that. The fact they recovered so well to finish sixth gives me plenty of heart that they can finish second this year.

Borussia Dortmund’s Lucas Barrios is 12/1 with Sky Bet to be the top Bundesliga scorer and is worth backing each-way with the firm going a quarter of the odds for the top four. The Paraguayan found the net 19 times in his debut season in Germany last year, making his the third top marksman and he can go even better this season.

BETTRENDS ADVICE
Stuttgart – to win without Bayern Munich – 10/1 (Blue Square, 888Sport)
Lucas Barrios – to be top goalscorer (each-way) – 12/1 (Blue Square)

ITALY
Despite Jose Mourinho’s departure to Real Madrid, Inter Milan are expected to march to another Serie A title under the guidance of Rafael Benitez. But, for me, they are too short at 11/10 for the season which starts on August 28.

Roma pushed Inter all the way last season, while AC Milan were in the frame – and even leading the table – for much of the campaign before running out of steam late on and finishing third. Juventus were a dismal seventh but are expected to improve greatly this time around in what the bookmakers regard as a four-way fight. It is AC Milan, the biggest priced of the quartet, that intrigue me most and I’m recommending backing them at 5/1 with bwin. They have a solid defence and can use that to their advantage to sneak narrow victories.

BETTRENDS ADVICE
AC Milan – to win the title – 5/1 (bwin)

SPAIN
The La Liga season gets underway on August 28 and once again it is a two-horse race between Barcelona (11/13) and Real Madrid (6/5). There is little value in backing either, particularly with the Jose Mourinho effect at Madrid being a possible reason for Barcelona’s dominance continuing. The market to play instead is the market without the big two. Valencia finished eight points clear of the rest in third last year and despite them being behind Sevilla and Atletico Madrid in the betting following the sale of David Villa to Barcelona, I fancy them to repeat the feat again this year and odds of 5/1 seem more then generous. In the top goalscorer market, Villa is a hot favourite to top the charts following his switch to Barcelona but it is last year’s leading marksman Lionel Messi who looks a better proposition at a stand-out 6/1 with William Hill. Messi bagged 34 goals last year and he will be looking to repeat that following a disappointing World Cup.

BETTRENDS ADVICE
Valencia – to win without Barcelona and Real Madrid – 5/1 (Boylesports, Betfred, Stan James)
Lionel Messi – top goalscorer – 6/1 (William Hill)