Cricket – 3rd Test Preview

Tue, Aug 17, 2010

by Paul Champion

England are a best-priced 4/7 to win the third Test at the Oval, which starts on Wednesday, and on pure form that looks a stand-out price given that in the first two matches the hosts have demolished a Pakistan team that is completely in disarray. However, a changeable weather forecast is probably the reason behind this seemingly generous price.

England are unchanged following their nine-wicket win at Edgbaston. The only possible change to the line-up would have been to drop the out-of-form Alistair Cook, but England selectors are creatures of habit these days so it comes as no surprise that the Essex left-hander gets another chance; however, if he fails again it may be his last chance, especially if, as expected the series is all over by the time the final match comes around.

Pakistan, on the other hand, have been forced into two changes. Zulqarnain Haider, who gave a solid display with the gloves in the second Test and also hit an impressively gutsy 88 in what was ultimately a losing cause, has fractured a finger and will be replaced by Kamran Akmal, who was unceremoniously dumped out of the starting XI after a desperate performance in the first match. Accurate seamer Umar Gul is also on the sick list with a hamstring complaint so will be replaced by either Tanvir Ahmed, who at 31 has yet to play a Test match but has impressive recent First Class figures, or the equally inexperienced Wahab Riaz.

On the plus side, talismanic batsman Mohammad Yousuf will be returning from the international wilderness, presumably to replace either Azhar or Amin. Yousuf is a veteran of nearly 90 Test matches and has an average of over 50. Most impressively, he scored over 600 runs in four matches during the 2006 tour, averaging 90.14. He may well be short of match practice at the top level, but the touch seemed to still be there in the rain-affected warm-up match against Worcestershire, in which he hit an unbeaten 40 from 54 balls. On all known form he is light-years ahead of the other batsmen in the line-up and the fact that he is, in places, sharing favouritism for leading Pakistan batsman with the desperately out of form skipper Butt, looks a rick. That said, the man cannot carry the team by himself and given his colleagues’ continuing ineptitude at being able to handle English conditions, consideration should always be made to selling Pakistan’s first innings runs on the spreads if the price is right, especially if they are inserted under cloudy skies.

The Oval has a long reputation as being a featherbed but in recent years at least, England have not found the place the easiest to score runs. In the years 2000-2004 England’s average first innings total was 460, but in the last five years it is a disappointing 308, including being bowled out for 173 by the Pakistanis in the notorious ‘Hair Affair’ Test of 2006. Despite some good individual performances in recent years the England top order still do not look a complete unit, although fans would have been pleased to see Pietersen return to form at Edgbaston, even though he rode his luck in his usual style. Jonathan Trott made a memorable Test debut at the Oval last year against Australia, scoring 44 and 119, and following a decent knock at Edgbaston he looks a good bet to continue his good run of form.

Once again, nothing in the bowling markets make much appeal. On the face of it, the distraction of his current bizarre drink-driving conviction could well affect Graeme Swann’s performance, but he is such a strong-willed character that it would be dangerous to oppose him based solely on that.

Bettrends Advice:
Mohammad Yousuf top Pakistan batsman (4/1 Boylesports, 7/2 general)
Jonathan Trott top England batsman (9/2 general)
Consider selling Pakistan first innings runs (especially if batting first)

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