Ebor Service

Tue, Aug 17, 2010

Wednesday 18^th August

1.45 – Racing UK Stakes (Handicap)
Mark Johnston has won this race twice in the last 3 years so his duo of Yorgunnabelucky and Chilly Filly warrant particular attention. Based on their recent clash Pontefract there doesn’t appear to be much to separate the pair as under virtually identical terms only 1/2L split them. Personal preference is for the former as I believe that he is open to more scope over this sort of trip as he has only raced twice over 12f. I know that Johnston was pleasantly surprised following his two wins at the start of the month as he had always felt that this full brother to the top class Shamardal needed top of the ground. But he proved that he goes well on an easier surface, which he will need to, judged on the weather forecast at York. I wouldn’t read too much in to the fact that stable jockey Greg Fairley is riding Chilly Filly as Johnston has a very simple rule on jockey bookings. Hayley Turner won on Yorgunnabelucky at Ascot last time, so she keeps the ride whilst Greg won on Chilly Filly at Nottingham. I also like the look of Tepmokea who won a decent looking 10f handicap at Doncaster last month, in a pretty good time. Yes, he has gone up 4lbs as a result but he is still unexposed over 12f. On his only attempt at the trip back in 2009, he ran a sound race to finish 2^nd to Antigua Sunrise on the Knavesmire and I can see him improving again tomorrow. Also in his favour is the fact that he handles cut in the ground, twice a runner up when able to get his toe in. Three-year-olds don’t have a bad record in this race, so I am willing to give Anhar another chance after he looked sluggish at Goodwood last time. Whether that had anything to do with the first-time visor I do not know but it has to be encouraging that connections have done away with that tomorrow and reverted to s familiar tongue tie. But I am going to take a chance on LIFE AND SOUL who was narrowly beaten in the Shergar Cup Classic just over a week ago. He has been doing himself proud in some hot little races this season and although he continues to creep up the handicap, he keeps finding more. A further 6lbs is a big rise but I feel that he will be well suited to the ease in conditions tomorrow. I think he ideally needs stepping up to 1m6f, so if he gets a strongly run race with ease in the ground, his stamina could come well into play.

2.15 – Weatherbys Insurance Lonsdale Cup (Group 2)
There is a good turnout for the Lonsdale Cup and bar Moon Indigo I would give a decent shout to them all. If official ratings are to be believed Ask looks to have a massive chance. Some critics slammed him after only finishing 5^th when sent off favourite for the Gold Cup but I was always of the opinion that the trip would find him out and so it proved. But on the whole I thought he ran a sound race until he ran out of petrol in the later stages. An extended 2m is much more his forte which he proved when winning the Group 1 Prix Royal Oak at the end of last season. The ground at Longchamp that day was pretty soft so any further rain that falls will only be in his favour. Opinion Poll is another that will appreciate further rain as he really is a mud lover, having won on ground ranging from Good to Soft to Heavy in the past. It was the fast ground that most likely caused his downfall at Sandown last time but even so I thought he ran a sound race to be beaten just over a length. He really looked like he was feeling it that day and therefore I fancy him to reverse the form with Illustrious Blue, under different conditions. But to try and pinch some value, I am going to side with ELECTROLYSER who needs to reverse the form with Illustrious Blue. And here is why I think he will. I am sure most would agree that William Knight’s horse is a true Goodwood specialist, having recorded 7 of his 10 wins at the track. I also think it is fair to say that he needs top of the ground to be seen at his best. On the other hand, Clive Cox’s grey is a lot less exposed and has proved that he is capable of handling some juice in the ground. Add in the fact that he re-opposes on 3lbs better terms tomorrow and you will see why I am confident of a reverse. Of Hamdan’s two runners Richard Hills has opted for Akmal who was an impressive winner of the Henry II Stakes at Sandown in May. Ignore his run in the Gold Cup as it was a better performance than the bare form suggests. Although he looked vulnerable when the challengers loomed upsides, he was done no favours coming round the home bend and once his chance was gone Richard Hills eased him down. The key to this horse is that he has to dictate. At Sandown and Ascot he loved dictating the pace and he has already proved he can be a difficult horse to pass if he gets into a rhythm. But that might prove his Achilles heel as if he gets taken on for the early lead he can tend to throw his toys out of the pram.

2.50 – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2)
Forgive me if I lead you up the garden path here but I am going to remain loyal to TEMPLE MEADS. Ahead of his debut at Newmarket I was told that Ed McMahon considered him possibly the best horse he has ever trained and so it proved as he ran out a fairly comfortable 4/1 winner. He then suffered a minor setback with prevented him from lining up at Royal Ascot but he made amends the following month when winning the hugely competitive Weatherbys Supersprint at Newbury. This not only represents a step up in class but also a step up in trip but by all accounts connections are confident that he will handle both, actually improving for the step up in trip, with this race having always been the target. My only slight concern is that he is felt to be a better horse on fast ground but until we see for ourselves one way or another, I am going to retain the faith. I am slightly fearful of Casual Glimpse as you always have to respect a Hannon trained juvenile. After winning his maiden in straight forward fashion he simply failed to handle the undulations of Epson when beaten in the Woodcote. But he bounced back with an impressive victory at Newmarket last month and although he held an entry in the Richmond Stakes, connections opted to supplement him for this, obviously of the opinion that they would get their money back. Crown Prosecutor is evidently highly regarded by Brian Meehan. So, it was slightly surprising to see him run him over 7f in the Vintage Stakes when his pedigree is pretty much all about speed. Perhaps he was looking down the Guineas route? Wearing a tongue-tie for the first time, he was a little keen early on at Goodwood and was hampered twice around the turns but still looked to have a chance 2f out. But once they hit the final furlong the tank emptied pretty quickly and after the race the racecourse vet reported that he’d finished distressed. Meehan blamed the interference for his defeat but I was firmly of the opinion that he failed to stay. Back over 6f I expect to see him bounce back making him another for the selection to be fearful of. I don’t know much about Shropshire but it is interesting that he recorded his debut success at Haydock on Good to Soft ground, a race which has worked out well as the runner-up, Layla’s Hero won at Pontefract on Sunday. He is a half-brother to some pretty speedy individuals, including the Listed juvenile winner Hinton Admiral, so he could well prove the dark horse of the race.

3.25 – Totesport Ebor (Heritage Handicap)

Five-year-olds have won half of the last 10 renewals
Only one six-year-old winner since 1979
8 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 14 or higher
6 of the last 10 winners achieved a top 4 finish last time
Only 2 winning favourites since 1994
None of the leading trainers have runners this year

As horses aged six or above have such a poor record in the Ebor we can reduce the field significantly by just concentrating on the four and five-year-olds. The horse with the best credentials is one of the Irish raiders, DIRAR. Drawn widest of all in stall 22, this five-year-old is a last time out winner, officially rated in the ideal bracket and set to be sent off towards the head of affairs in the betting. Most importantly, he has the profile of a horse that has been aimed at this race for some time, mixing recent efforts on the level and over hurdles. His victory at Ayr in June was surely about earning a rise up the weights in order to get in here. That came on Good to Firm ground but he has won over hurdles in the past when there was juice in the ground, so we can be fairly sure that he will go on whatever is out before him tomorrow. Jamie Spencer looks a sensible booking as from stall 22 he will have no option but to drop in early doors, leaving the Irishman plenty of time to make up ground as they come into the straight. Currently available at 11/1 with bet365, he looks a decent bet to me. He has to reverse form with Overturn who beat him fair and square at Galway, albeit over hurdles, who technically should get the heave-ho being a six-year-old but I feel he has mitigating circumstances. Sergeant Cecil, also the winner of the Northumberland Plate the time before, proved that a classy, unexposed, six-year-old can overturn (pardon the pun) the trends and on what I have seen so far, Donald McCain’s runner could be in that bracket. Apart from his age, he also sits nicely with all of the trends and at 6/1 also with bet365, he represents a sound investment. Although Fortuni isn’t one of the strongest horses from a trends point of view, I can’t help but think that the crafty Sir Mark Prescott has lined him up for this race all season. He has hardly any miles on the clock and could be a good deal better than his official rating of 96 suggests. After all, he beat Cill Rialaig with some authority at Epsom in June and she franked the form by winning the Duke Of Edinburgh handicap next time. Prescott could have run him again since Epsom but I am sure he chose not to as he knew he had a well handicapped horse on his hands and didn’t want to ruin that. I am also a big fan of Seb Sanders over these sort of trips as a rider needs plenty of strength to give his mount the best chance and he is one of the strongest jockey s around. The final horse to make it onto the shortlist is Darley Sun who to be honest shouldn’t technically be on here but as it is my book, I am using some authors licence. This horse was ultra-impressive when winning the Cesarewitch last season. He ran okay in the Henry II Stakes, finishing 3^rd despite the fact that he looked in need of the outing. He was disappointing in the Gold Cup and I have to admit, did look exposed but I am willing to give him another chance at this level. He has lots of weight (9st 7lbs) so he will have to break records if he is to win but I firmly believe that he is a class animal and may just have the ability to carry it off. At 16/1 I shall be having a little bit each-way in the hope that I am right.

4.05 – Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed)
This is exactly the sort of race where you can’t see past a certain horse and you end up getting your fingers burnt. Hopefully, I won’t have that moment tomorrow but I just can’t get away from FACE THE PROBLEM. After a respectable debut in May he was given a little time before his next start at Windsor which he won despite still showing signs of greenness. The drop down to the minimum trip didn’t pose any problems next time at York, when he again showed signs of greenness but still won with a strong degree of authority. Not one to rush his horses, Hills then sent him up to Thirsk for another 5f nursery. This time he looked much more professional and annihilated his seven rivals by 6L. Afterwards, jockey Ashley Morgan was full of praise for the horse claiming that he is the fastest he has ever ridden. The handicapper responded with a 19lbs rise up the weights forcing Hills to step him up into Listed company. If he is able to progress tomorrow, he should out his rivals here to the sword and a victory could well see him line up in the Flying Childers next. Cadeaux Pearl has steadily progressed this season but the drop down to the minimum trip worked the oracle at Sandown last month when he ran out a hugely impressive 10L winner. It is fair to say that it wasn’t the strongest of races and it was run in a time nearly 3 seconds slower than standard but as the old saying goes, you can only beat what is in front of you. He is less exposed than most of these so he can be expected to improve for the experience. The gambled-on New Planet got his career off to a perfect start at Pontefract last month to win going away. Despite not making the best of starts, he was soon racing in a nice rhythm, just off the early leaders, before picking up strongly once asked for his challenge and it was soon clear to all that backed him that the money was in the bag, without him having to be fully extended. In time, I expect that another furlong will suit but for the time being he looks all about raw speed and so with Fallon booked to ride I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest to see him improve bundles on his debut. In fact, if there is some value to be had, I will probably play each-way.

4.40 – European Breeders’ Fund Fillies’ Stakes (Handicap)
Although only 8 runners, this fillies’ handicap looks a tricky little contest. My money will be heading for GOBAMA, who arguably would have won at Newbury last time had she stayed straight in the closing stages. Kieren Fox was in the plate that day but had tomorrow’s jockey Seb Sanders been about the result may have been different. Sanders rode her when she won at Newmarket in May and said then that she is a difficult filly to settle. Therefore her defeat at Newbury might work out well here as she has only gone up 2lbs for a race which theoretically she ought to have won. My only slight concern is that she wouldn’t want too much juice in the ground. Sooraah, penalised for a stylish success at Sandown eight days previously, failed to give 13lb to the winner at Yarmouth last time. She was never far away and was cantering all over the majority of her rivals 2f out but she was a little caught out when the winner pounced. She is up a further 2lbs tomorrow so will need to improve again but she can’t be taken lightly with Fallon in the plate. Admire The View looked to be progressing nicely following back to back victories at Doncaster but she was ultra disappointing at Epsom last time when in my opinion she hated the track. Back on a flatter track like York I think she will be much happier and I am firmly expecting to see her mount a much improved effort.