Summer Festivals Betting Guide

Tue, Aug 17, 2010

Totesport Ebor – York, Wednesday 18^th August

Five-year-olds have won half of the last 10 renewals
Only one six-year-old winner since 1979
8 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 14 or higher
6 of the last 10 winners achieved a top 4 finish last time
Only 2 winning favourites since 1994
None of the leading trainers have runners this year

As horses aged six or above have such a poor record in the Ebor we can reduce the field significantly by just concentrating on the four and five-year-olds. The horse with the best credentials is one of the Irish raiders, DIRAR. Drawn widest of all in stall 22, this five-year-old is a last time out winner, officially rated in the ideal bracket and set to be sent off towards the head of affairs in the betting. Most importantly, he has the profile of a horse that has been aimed at this race for some time, mixing recent efforts on the level and over hurdles. His victory at Ayr in June was surely about earning a rise up the weights in order to get in here. That came on Good to Firm ground but he has won over hurdles in the past when there was juice in the ground, so we can be fairly sure that he will go on whatever is out before him tomorrow. Jamie Spencer looks a sensible booking as from stall 22 he will have no option but to drop in early doors, leaving the Irishman plenty of time to make up ground as they come into the straight. Currently available at 11/1 with bet365, he looks a decent bet to me. He has to reverse form with Overturn who beat him fair and square at Galway, albeit over hurdles, who technically should get the heave-ho being a six-year-old but I feel he has mitigating circumstances. Sergeant Cecil, also the winner of the Northumberland Plate the time before, proved that a classy, unexposed, six-year-old can overturn (pardon the pun) the trends and on what I have seen so far, Donald McCain’s runner could be in that bracket. Apart from his age, he also sits nicely with all of the trends and at 6/1 also with bet365, he represents a sound investment. Although Fortuni isn’t one of the strongest horses from a trends point of view, I can’t help but think that the crafty Sir Mark Prescott has lined him up for this race all season. He has hardly any miles on the clock and could be a good deal better than his official rating of 96 suggests. After all, he beat Cill Rialaig with some authority at Epsom in June and she franked the form by winning the Duke Of Edinburgh handicap next time. Prescott could have run him again since Epsom but I am sure he chose not to as he knew he had a well handicapped horse on his hands and didn’t want to ruin that. I am also a big fan of Seb Sanders over these sort of trips as a rider needs plenty of strength to give his mount the best chance and he is one of the strongest jockey s around. The final horse to make it onto the shortlist is Darley Sun who to be honest shouldn’t technically be on here but as it is my book, I am using some authors licence. This horse was ultra-impressive when winning the Cesarewitch last season. He ran okay in the Henry II Stakes, finishing 3^rd despite the fact that he looked in need of the outing. He was disappointing in the Gold Cup and I have to admit, did look exposed but I am willing to give him another chance at this level. He has lots of weight (9st 7lbs) so he will have to break records if he is to win but I firmly believe that he is a class animal and may just have the ability to carry it off. At 16/1 I shall be having a little bit each-way in the hope that I am right.