Summer Festivals Betting Guide

Thu, Aug 19, 2010

Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes – York, Friday 20^th August

9 of the last 10 winners had already won earlier in the season
8 of the last 10 winners achieved a top 4 finish last time
7 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
Fillies have won 4 of the last 17 renewals
Since 1980, only 4 winners were aged six or above
Only 2 of the last 10 winners were officially rated less than 110
The King’s Stand has supplied 6 recent winners; the July Cup 3
Aidan O’Brien & Robin Bastiman have won the Nunthorpe twice in the last decade

I would dearly love to see my old favourite, Borderlescott earn a hat-trick of wins in the Nunthorpe but I cannot put his name forward as his age is a massive stumbling block from a trends point of view. Even so, the old horse loves it at York and sentiment will mean that I can’t leave him un-backed. From a trends point of view there is very little to separate the two principals, Starspangledbanner and EQUIANO, but just to be pedantic I am going to favour Barry Hills’ runner. Both won the two big sprints at Royal Ascot, Equiano the 5f King’s Stand and Starspangledbanner the 6f Golden Jubilee. At Newmarket the pair finished one-two in the July Cup, with O’Brien’s runner winning the battle that day. Even so, I feel that Equiano will earn his revenge over the minimum trip. I just feel that of the two, he has shown more raw speed in his races and after the way that he was cut down at Newmarket over 6f, Michael Hills will be a bit savvier this time around. Either way, it looks a cracking race and I can’t wait to see it unfurl. I backed Kingsgate Native at Newmarket and got a fair run for my money as he eventually finished 4^th, just under 2L behind the pair. Of course, he has already won this race as a juvenile back in 2007 and the trends are suggesting that he shouldn’t be easily swept aside. Whilst speaking of juveniles, what about Stone Of Folca? He has a very similar profile to John Best’s previous winner, in that he is still a maiden, but his form took a deserved upturn when Approve (the Norfolk winner) won the Gimcrack earlier in the week. The juvenile’s weight allowance really shouldn’t be underestimated in the Nunthorpe and at around 12/1 I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him. The same is said of Dinkum Diamond who having won the National Stakes in May always had this race as a target. He was disappointing in the Norfolk but I know that he arrived home very sore after the race due to the quick conditions and it was agreed then that he wouldn’t be risked on fast ground again as Henry Candy thinks a fair bit of this horse. So although he has a length to find with John Best’s runner based on the Norfolk form, I expect him to reverse the form. So as I have it, Equiano is the win bet but I shall be chancing my arm on Dinkum Diamond who at 25/1 looks far too tempting to pass up. Oh, and not forgetting a fiver on Borderlescott for old times’ sake.