Summer Festivals Betting Guide Extended Service

Thu, Aug 19, 2010

Friday 20^th August

1.45 – Sky Bet Melrose Stakes (Handicap)
Anything could win the opener but I shall be pinning my hopes BAY WILLOW as he tackles 1m6f for the first time. This son of Singspiel has been progressing from run to run this season and although he is up 4lbs following his win at Ascot last time, it is believed that he has the potential to easily make the step up into pattern company. After he suffered defeat on his penultimate start at Newmarket it was thought that Frankie hadn’t made as much use of him as he could have and therefore it was no surprise to see him much more prominent at Ascot. Connections did have an eye on the Ebor but Johnston was confident that was not the way to go as it is possibly one of the toughest races for a three-year-old in the calendar. For the time being this looks a very sensible option and a victory here should act as the catalyst into Pattern class. Comedy Act was one of the horses included in my Fifty For The Flat service at the start of the season. After three runs last years in which he was beaten a total of 65L he looked all over the sort of horse that Prescott excels with once stepped up in trip. That has so far proved to be the case as he has seen his rating rise from 65 to 86 following three victories and three placed efforts. This represents his toughest task so far but I am not convinced that this horse has stopped improving yet. Trovare doesn’t have many miles on the clock but he has looked highly progressive this season as he has gradually stepped up in trip. The handicapper keeps putting him up but as he only does enough to win his races he hasn’t been able to be too harsh and so even though he is up another 7lbs tomorrow, he is another that can carry on improving. The final one for the shortlist is Berling who having ran such a sound race in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot has disappointed on his last couple of starts, when he looked one paced both times. The step up in trip is clearly a wise move and I am pleased to see the blinkers going on for the first time as he has looked something of a thinker in the past. Given his last two efforts, there may be some value to be had.

2.15 – Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3)
I don’t suspect that I am telling you anything new here when I say that RAINBOW PEAK has really looked a Group horse in handicaps this season. The winner of all three starts last season suffered a narrow defeat at the hands of Fareer in the listed Hambleton Handicap here back in May, but even in defeat he ran a cracker given the way the race unfolded. Held up off the pace in a race dominated by those who raced prominently, he stayed on really well to go down by a head. Owner peter Savill is no mug and knew he had a bit of a machine on his hands as he was willing to give him an entry in the Group 1 Queen Anne but with Goldikova, Paco Boy and Rip van Winkle also being entered, he took the sensible decision to run him in the Wolferton Handicap which he won pretty much as he liked despite the competitive line up. Both of his starts this season have come on quicker ground but I have no doubt that he preserves a bit of ease, so that could be his Achilles heel if you are looking to take him on as it does look to be drying out on the Knavesmire. I haven’t been able to find any betting on the Group 1 Champion Stakes but as he is sure to get his ground at Newmarket in October, that must surely be his end of season target and he may well be a good deal shorter after tomorrow. King’s Gambit chased him home at Ascot, going down by just over 2L, before producing another sound effort when runner up here in the John Smith’s Cup last month. There is nothing in the form to suggest that he will be able to reverse the form with Michael Jarvis’ runner but if he does have an off day, rest assured, this gritty gelding is more than capable of taking full advantage. Poet caused a few raised eyebrows when he won the Rose Of Lancaster Stakes a couple of weeks ago but he is a confirmed soft ground horse, so I suppose it was to be expected, but I couldn’t fancy tomorrow on quicker ground, especially under a 4lbs penalty. So my final fancy is Rio De La Plata, who I would back to reverse the Haydock form as not only did he fail to get the extended 10f but he also hated the soft conditions. I know that Frankie likes this horse and he will be out to make amends and it is worth pointing out that Saeed bin Suroor has won this race three times in the last six years. Finally, it was good to see old Cesare back to winning ways at Doncaster last time but at the age of nine you would have to surmise that he will find one or two too good here, especially as he has always been a better horse fresh.

2.50 – Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Listed)
It is interesting that only one three-year-old has won this race in the last decade yet they provide 9 of the 15 runners tomorrow. Regular readers will know how I have had my fingers burnt by Red Jazz over recent months, so I am leaving well alone tomorrow. Now watch him romp home! To be honest, I am finding this the toughest race of the meeting to weigh up. Castles In The Air was an impressive winner of the International at Ascot before running a decent race in the Stewards’ Cup, given that 6f is possibly on the sharp side for him now and he didn’t have the best of the draw. Back over this trip, he should go close. YAA WAYL was just under 2L behind him at Ascot but I though he deserved plenty of credit as he was easily the best of those that were handy from the start, sticking on gamely throughout. I like horses with a tough attitude and I fancy him to reverse the form. Palace Moon must rank as a big danger after impressive efforts behind Laddies Poke Two in the Wokingham and St Moritz in the Bunbury Cup. Forget his disappointment in the Stewards’ Cup as not only was he drawn poorly in 7 but he wasn’t happy at all on the Good ground. He is a much better horse on a faster surface and judged on what I have seen so far that is what he will get tomorrow. Oasis Dancer, well beaten in the Irish 2000 Guineas, bounced back to winning ways at Newbury in July confirming to me that 7f is his ideal trip. That view was backed up in the Totesport Mile next time as although he was ideally drawn in 19; he dropped away tamely without any obvious excuses. Back over 7f and from a decent draw in 4, I am expecting to see a much improved effort tomorrow, although whether he is quite up to this is open to debate. One that I think could be a dark horse is the lightly raced Skysurfers. He ran two nice races in defeat out in Dubai in the spring but was weak in the market ahead of his reappeance at Goodwood in May, a time when Bin Suroor’s runners were struggling for form, and he ran as the market suggested, finishing a rather tame 3^rd. He has been given time since then and now that the stable have hit form don’t be surprised to see a much better effort.

3.25 – Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1)

9 of the last 10 winners had already won earlier in the season
8 of the last 10 winners achieved a top 4 finish last time
7 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
Fillies have won 4 of the last 17 renewals
Since 1980, only 4 winners were aged six or above
Only 2 of the last 10 winners were officially rated less than 110
The King’s Stand has supplied 6 recent winners; the July Cup 3
Aidan O’Brien & Robin Bastiman have won the Nunthorpe twice in the last decade

I would dearly love to see my old favourite, Borderlescott earn a hat-trick of wins in the Nunthorpe but I cannot put his name forward as his age is a massive stumbling block from a trends point of view. Even so, the old horse loves it at York and sentiment will mean that I can’t leave him un-backed. From a trends point of view there is very little to separate the two principals, Starspangledbanner and EQUIANO, but just to be pedantic I am going to favour Barry Hills’ runner. Both won the two big sprints at Royal Ascot, Equiano the 5f King’s Stand and Starspangledbanner the 6f Golden Jubilee. At Newmarket the pair finished one-two in the July Cup, with O’Brien’s runner winning the battle that day. Even so, I feel that Equiano will earn his revenge over the minimum trip. I just feel that of the two, he has shown more raw speed in his races and after the way that he was cut down at Newmarket over 6f, Michael Hills will be a bit savvier this time around. Either way, it looks a cracking race and I can’t wait to see it unfurl. I backed Kingsgate Native at Newmarket and got a fair run for my money as he eventually finished 4^th, just under 2L behind the pair. Of course, he has already won this race as a juvenile back in 2007 and the trends are suggesting that he shouldn’t be easily swept aside. Whilst speaking of juveniles, what about Stone Of Folca? He has a very similar profile to John Best’s previous winner, in that he is still a maiden, but his form took a deserved upturn when Approve (the Norfolk winner) won the Gimcrack earlier in the week. The juvenile’s weight allowance really shouldn’t be underestimated in the Nunthorpe and at around 12/1 I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him. The same is said of Dinkum Diamond who having won the National Stakes in May always had this race as a target. He was disappointing in the Norfolk but I know that he arrived home very sore after the race due to the quick conditions and it was agreed then that he wouldn’t be risked on fast ground again as Henry Candy thinks a fair bit of this horse. So although he has a length to find with John Best’s runner based on the Norfolk form, I expect him to reverse the form. So as I have it, Equiano is the win bet but I shall be chancing my arm on Dinkum Diamond who at 25/1 looks far too tempting to pass up. Oh, and not forgetting a fiver on Borderlescott for old times’ sake.

4.05 – Convivial Maiden Stakes
Maidens don’t come any tougher than this with a whole host of top class stables represented, so unless you fancy something strongly I would suggest that you keep your hands in your pockets. If in doubt there is always the Hannon factor. Moriarty looks the number one string on jockey bookings but his performance at Newbury earlier this month, when he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by hanging quite badly in the closing stages, doesn’t inspire too much confidence. One that did catch the eye last time was EL MUQBIL, a 450,000 guineas half-brother to last season´s classy juvenile Arcano. Despite looking in need of the debut experience, he put up a promising performance to finish 4th and what caught my eye was the way that he was doing his best work late once the penny had dropped. He should come no end for the experience, so he gets my vote. Sheikh Hamdan look’s to be strong handed in this race as his second string, Edmaaj, was desperately unlucky not to open his account on his debut at Sandown. Although he travelled strongly throughout, he was trapped in a pocket for much of the race costing him the best part of 4L with the leaders. Once out in the open he picked up sweetly, just failing to reel in the winner. It was interesting that Richard Hills didn’t appear to be too hard on him that day, so I had him down as a sure fire winner next time but Hills has deserted him in favour of the Meehan runner, suggesting to me that he believes that El Muqbil is better. Star Of Dance, a 370,000 guineas half-brother to a couple of winners, could only finish 6^th in the Sandown contest. Despite holding an entry in the Champagne Stakes, he was an uneasy favourite beforehand and looked pretty clueless in the race, taking an age to grasp what was required before staying on in striking fashion under nothing more than a hands and heels ride from Ryan Moore. He also looked to be carrying a bit of condition beforehand so I think we should see a much improved effort tomorrow. Ollon was a well backed favourite for his debut at Redcar last month but he looked a bit green to me. After a sluggish start, he raced off the pace early on before keeping on gamely in the closing stages, without looking like he was going to trouble the winner. He is entitled to come on for the experience and I know that Fahey believes this 75,000 guinea purchase has plenty of ability. Of course, with any race like this the betting will provide a valuable guide. The unraced Terdaad hails from the family of the classy Iffraaj and further down the line Cape Cross but other than that I know very little about the horse. But, if the market speaks heavily in his favour, it may pay to take notice

4.40 – Stowe Family Law LLP Stakes (Handicap)
After four days of tricky punting they give us a 16 runner, two mile handicap as a ‘get out’ stakes. LADY LUACHMHAR is an interesting runner for Richard Fahey as she is yet to race over further than 1m5f. She ran a respectable race at Hamilton last month without posing a serious challenge to the winner but stayed on well in the closing stages to snatch second. What is interesting about that race is that the 3rd and 4th placed horses have both since won whilst the 6th place horse won a novice hurdle, so the form has worked out pretty well. She is twice a winner on soft ground but has been producing some solid efforts on a faster surface so it would come as no surprise to me to see her run well tomorrow. Wicked Daze was given a peach of a ride under Philip Makin over course and distance last month, making all for a deserved success. I liked the way he dug very deep to repel all challengers in the closing stages, but he did have the run of the race and his profile suggests that he is not one to rely on next time out. With that in mind I fancy the runner up, Dazinski, to reverse the form. He got going late far too late in the day and couldn’t get to the winner but at least he left behind his disappointing effort at Ascot the time before. He strikes me as a horse that enjoys more of a test, which hopefully he will get her and for the time being at least, looks to be a horse on an upwards curve of just a 1lb higher mark. Wells Lyrical has been a consistent animal over the past couple of seasons and he looks to be racing here off an attractive mark. Ignore his reappearance effort at Newmarket earlier this month as he ran much too freely for his own good. By Sadler’s Wells out of a Shirley Heights mare, he has stamina in abundance so he will be staying on in the closing stages when others are crying enough. He might just need it tomorrow but he is one to keep an eye on off his current mark. Deauville Flyer has already won twice at York this season and ran respectably here last month to finish 3^rd in the Silver Cup, from 3lb out of the handicap. He is conceding plenty of weight tomorrow but he is a certain stayer and like Hamish McGonagall on Day 1, is starting to earn a reputation as something of a York specialist.