Summer Festivals Betting Guide Extended Service

Fri, Aug 20, 2010

After a busy week at York, the racing is pretty modest this weekend, so I have only focused on the televised action plus the racing from France on Sunday. All should be back to normal next week as there looks to be some decent cards from Goodwood, Newmarket, Beverley and Windsor.

Saturday 21^st August

2.05 Sandown – Danepak Atalanta Stakes (Listed)
SETA doesn’t appear to have looked back since flopping in the 1000 Guineas, winning both her starts at Leicester and Warwick. I saw her in the flesh at Newmarket and she looked to my eyes as if she still had plenty of growing to do, so I was not surprised to see her run so poorly. Since then Cumani has taken a sensible approach giving her a confidence boost in a modest conditions event at Leicester and a low key Listed event at Warwick. I think that she has matured on each occasion and this looks a natural progression for here. If she has continued to strengthen she should be too good for these rivals and who knows, she might be up to running in the Matron or Sun Chariot. Decorative is one of my Fifty For The Flat Service and she got us off to a winning start when winning over a mile at Nottingham in June, in spite of the Good to Soft ground and not because of it. She looks a filly with a very bright future and although she has 7lbs to find with Seta, I believe that she ranks as a serious threat. I also think Long Lashes looked a nice filly last year but I don’t think she appreciates and give under foot. I thought she made a pleasing reappeance at Goodwood given that she had been off the track since the previous September and I firmly expect her to be involved in the shake up tomorrow.

2.20 Chester
This looks a pretty open handicap but the recent Thirsk winner, BAHAMIAN LAD still looks tempting. It was fair sprint handicap that he won last time and it is worth pointing out that he won it in a time almost a second inside the standard time. The handicapper responded with a 4lbs rise up the weights but he still remains on a handy mark, given that he would be running off 80 on the AW, and from stall 1 he has got the best of the draw. Since winning at Redcar in June, Lucky Dan has continued to accredit himself well off his revised mark and from stall 5 must be given a chance. It is over a year since Roker Park was in the Winners’ Enclosure but he looks to be on a very attractive mark at the moment and if he is able to build on his last couple of starts, it wouldn’t be a surprise in the least to see him get back to winning ways.

2.35 Sandown – Alexis Catchpole Celebration Solario Stakes (Group 3)
Because of the Hannon factor, Measuring Time will receive plenty of support and rightly so after two wins from two. Hannon was a bit surprised when he won on his debut as he thought his other runner would have his measure. But, he proved it was no fluke when winning a modest 4 runner conditions event at Newbury next time. However, I think it is fair to say that he isn’t one of the stable’s leading lights. With that in mind I fancy the once raced NATIVE KHAN to lower his colours. I know that Fallon was really impressed with him following his victory at Newmarket and Ed Dunlop thinks he has a nice horse on his hands for next season, hence his low key approach so far this season. The son of Azamour holds a host of top class entries for later in the season, including the Royal Lodge and Racing Post Trophy and so three victories from now, we could be looking at next year’s Derby favourite. Roayh has bumped into some decent animals so far this season, including Libranno in the Richmond Stakes last time. His last couple of efforts have left me feeling that he needed to be stepped up in trip, so I shall be interested to see how he fairs tomorrow.

2.50 Chester – totesport.com Chester Handicap (Listed)
The draw shouldn’t play too much of a part in the 1m5f handicap so I am not too perturbed that my fancy, JEDI, is coming out of stall 7. This son of Pivotal has looked a typical improving Stoute four-year-old this season. After winning with some style at Chester in May, he was slightly disappointing at Hamilton next time but he bounced back with a very encouraging effort behind Martyr, who ran well for a long way in the Ebor on Wednesday. I am just hoping for a bit of rain as this fellow likes to get his toe in. Lady Eclair has a 50% strike rate having won 6 of her 12 starts and even though she has tasted defeat on her last couple of starts in the Goodwood Stakes and Shergar Cup Stayers, I think she still has lots to offer over what I consider her ideal trip. Ground wise, she wouldn’t want to see any rain so I think I will hold fire placing a bet until I know what the ground is like tomorrow. La Vecchia Scuola was an impressive winner at Pontefract last Sunday, when she was ridden positively over a trip that was probably on the sharp side for her. Of course she had the benefit of Fallon that day but under just a 3lbs penalty she could prove difficult to peg back if allowed too easy a lead.

3.10 Sandown
Hanovarian Baron has gone from strength to strength this season although he did disappoint in the Old Newton Cup when strongly fancied. However, he proved that was a one off when he won a modest handicap at Ascot last month. If he is to prove the real deal, he will need to progress from that and prove that he is capable of dominating a race like this off his current mark. But I am going to go with FORTE DEI MARMI to bounce back after a disappointing effort at in the John Smith’s Cup. There were no excuses from connections after the race although I would suggest that the ground was plenty quick enough for him that day. If the rain forecast for the south materializes, that should help his cause. Dansili Dancer has dropped to his lowest mark since 2006 and with John Fahy also taking a further 5lbs off, he must be in the mix, even though the form of his York effort in May suggests that he has a bit to find with Tony Newcombe’s horse. Sandor completes the shortlist as I have been impressed with this son of Fantastic light this season. His defeat by the progressive Bay Willow at Ascot last time looks solid enough. That came over 1m4f and whilst he got it well enough I think he will be more effective over the 2f shorter tomorrow. With course and distance form already in the bag and from a handy draw in stall 15, he shouldn’t be far away.

3.25 Chester
SIDE GLANCE arrives here on the back of two really solid efforts, winning over 7f at Ascot before finishing 3^rd in a competitive mile handicap at the same track. Whilst he saw the trip out he didn’t look as authoritative as he had done over 7f and it may be that he is a specialist over that trip. This slight drop in trip should therefore play to his strengths and I was pleased to see that Jimmy Fortune was jocked up as soon as the entries were made. Tamaathul has the benefit of being draw in stall 5 and I am expecting to see him throw down a serious challenge. He is more lightly raced than any of these but still has some top class form in the bag. He was less than 3L behind Wigmore Hall at Newmarket in April before pushing Azmeel to 3L in the Dee Stakes in May. He obviously suffered a minor setback since then but by all accounts he is back to his best now. Camerooney is one of those horses that you think the handicapper has in his grip but he keeps pulling out more. He started off 2010 of a lowly 48 but 8 runs later (6 wins and 2 places) he is up to a lofty 91. Judged on his last victory at Newcastle in June he hasn’t stopped improving just yet and from stall 6 expect to see him bounce out of the stalls and adopt his usual front running tactics. Desert Creek is anything but a stable star but he has been progressing nicely this season, culminating in a narrow defeat by Our Joe Mac at Haydock last time. He has been done no favours by the draw as he usually likes to be handy but who knows, a change of tactics might just be what the doctor ordered.

3.40 Ripon
This looks a wide open heat full of lightly raced unexposed juveniles but I was impressed with MURBEH at Newbury o his debut. By all accounts he had looked a very smart animal at home and it came as no surprise to connections that he was up to the job on the first time of asking. He holds some smart entries for later in the season, including the Mill Reef, and a victory here will confirm Meehan’s view that he has a stakes horse on his hands. Based on the form of that race Gentle Lord has to come into the equation as he was only 1 1/2L behind the winner. I couldn’t fault his performance as he simply ran out of steam in the closing stages which was to have been expected given his inexperience. He should come on for the run but then again, so should Meehan’s. Royal Opera is the most exposed of these but he has been progressing nicely over his last three starts. He finally lost his maiden tag at Ffos Las the time before last before running a solid race behind Arabian Star at Newbury earlier this month. Whilst he ran well I believe that he will be more at home over this furlong shorter and because he is so exposed, there may be a little value to be had.

3.45 Sandown
A tricky little contest but it might pay to take a change on MATSUNOSUKE who is twice a course and distance winner. Prior to disappointing at Nottingham last time he had run some sound races at Ffos Las, Ascot and Goodwood and he looks very attractively weighted at present given that he races off a mark in the 100s on the AW. Rocket Rob has been very consistent this season but keep bumping into one too good and as a result the handicapper hasn’t relented. But surely his turn must come soon and Frankie looks an interesting booking. Sohraab is another that has dropped to an attractive mark based on the best of his form. His performances have been a bit in and out this season but if anyone can get the best out of him Seb Sanders can.

3.55 Chester
I might be wrong but I have always felt that Mark Brisbourne does well at Chester and therefore I might be tempted to take a chance on BELLE ROYALE. She is a soft ground horse based on her victories so far this season but she does have some decent fast ground form behind Puddle Duck you won impressively at York this week. Fifth Commandment should provide the biggest test after two straight victories over 6f having previously run Temple Meads to 4L in the Weatherbys Super Sprint.

4.10 Ripon
Piazza San Pietro has been in startling form over the past couple of months and a 3lbs rise up the weights may not be enough to stop him going close once again. But TAJNEED a previous Great St Wilfrid winner over course and distance looked almost back to his best in that same race last time and he can go on from that with raced like the Portland and Ayr Gold Cup looming on the horizon. Sioux Rising doesn’t have many miles on the clock but looked a decent animal when making a belated reappearance over course and distance at the start of the month. That will have blown away the cobwebs and a big effort can be expected.

4.25 Curragh – Galileo EBF Futurity Stakes (Group 2)
I am not too bothered which one of O’Brien’s Johnny Murtagh rides as I fancy GLOR NA MARA to beat them all. Given his debut in the Group 3 Anglesey Stakes in which he ran a fair race to finish 4^th he was then really pitched in at the deep end next time. But despite the Group 1 status of the Phoenix Stakes he ran a cracker to push Zoffany to 1/2L so if he progresses as expected he could prove difficult to beat. He holds Samuel Morse on that form and Robin Hood and Rudolf Valentino haven’t looked anything out of the ordinary so far. In fact the former was easily despatched by Pathfork at the Curragh last month and therefore he could well pose the biggest threat to the selection.

Sunday 22^nd August

3.40 Deauville – Prix Morny (Group 1)
The Morny looks a natural stepping stone for LIBRANNO, the winner of the Group 2 July and Richmond Stakes. I was particularly impressed with his Goodwood win given that he was conceding 3lbs to all of his rivals. This, however, is a much tougher proposition and he will need to improve again if he is to record his first Group 1 success. Al Aasifh has some decent form behind Temple Meads and Approve. He beat Cape To Rio with a bit up his sleeve at Newbury last time and does look a Group horse in the making although whether that is the highest level is open to debate. Irish Field has done all of her racing in France so the softer conditions will hold no fears for her. Her only defeat came at the hands of Keratiya over 5f at Chantilly but I fancy her to reverse the form over an extra furlong.

4.15 Deauville – Prix Jean Romanet (Group 1)
Reggane looks an obvious candidate after she got back to winning ways at Vichy last month but I don’t think she is a filly that can be trusted at the highest level and I would be winning to take her on. The form of STACELITA was given a massive boost when Midday won the Yorkshire Oaks this week. Prior to that she had pushed Henry Cecil’s filly to 1 1/4L in the Nassau and a repeat performance here on Sunday will surely make her difficult to beat. Shalanaya already has some solid Group 1 form in the bag although she was well beaten in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes last time. She will find life easier back against her own sex and certainly shouldn’t be underestimated.

4.50 Deauville – Prix Kergorlay (Group 2)
Manighar is the only British trained entry in this year’s renewal but he is going to need to improve on three modest efforts if he is to figure. Because of that it won’t the spectacle that it normally is and therefore of little betting interest but If I had to put money on the line I would probably side with BLEK who has been in fine fettle this season.