F1 – Belgian Grand Prix Preview

Fri, Aug 27, 2010

Formula One heads to the circuit the drivers all love to compete at this weekend as the Belgian Grand Prix takes place at Spa-Francorchamps. And the wet weather we are all “enjoying” could ensure we get to witness a thriller with plenty of action.

After dominating the Hungarian Grand Prix prior to the summer break, Red Bull are quite rightly at the top of the betting for both race victory and pole position with Sebastian Vettel heading the lists in both markets from Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso and Vettel’s Red Bull team-mate Mark Webber, winner of the race in Hungary and current leader of the drivers’ championship.

But the lengthy Spa circuit isn’t likely to suit the Red Bull car with its flexible front wing quite in the same way that the twists and turns of the Hungaroring did. The fast, flowing corners will be ideal for the Red Bull but the long straights and several uphill sections won’t and for that reason they are worth taking on.

Rain should fall during qualifying while light rain is predicted for the race too, and for that reason the 14/1 that Sportingbet and Stan James are offering about Jenson Button’s chances really interests me. Button won the two races this season that were affected by rain and despite only having made the podium on one occasion at Spa he looks excellent value to me with Stan James offering a fifth of the odds for each-way.

Despite Red Bull’s dominance in qualifying sessions this year, I’m taking them on in that market too. Ferrari’s record at Spa is better than anyone else and at 9/2 Alonso looks a decent bet to hand them pole position with the Spaniard needing a strong result to boost his world title hopes.

Nobody has a better record at Spa than Michael Schumacher who has won six times at the track. His comeback to Formula One has been questioned with his last five Grands Prix seeing him finish 11th, 15th, 9th, 9th and 11th but a return to Spa could well put him back on the right tracks – even though he will be hit with a 10-place grid position penalty. The two recent ninth place finishes still earned him championship points and despite his struggles, the performance of his Mercedes car and the fact he will be way down the grid, he looks overpriced at 7/4 with Sky Bet to finish in the top 10 when you consider the impact the weather could have on the result. He also looks a huge price to finish in the top six at 14/1 with the same firm, especially when you consider Blue Square and 888 Sport are as short as 5/1, and should be backed in both.

My final bet for the Belgian Grand Prix is in the winning margin market and my advice is to take the 11/8 available with Blue Square and 888 Sport that the race is won by a time under five seconds. The wet weather should mean it will be anything but a precession and only Kimi Raikkonen’s win in 2005 came by a significant margin when he came home 28 seconds clear of the field.

Bettrends Advice
Jenson Button – to win Grand Prix – 14/1 (Stan James)
Fernando Alonso – to be on pole position – 9/2 (Sky Bet, Boylesports, William Hill)
Michael Schumacher – to finish in the points – 7/4 (Sky Bet)
Michael Schumacher – to finish in the top six – 14/1 (Sky Bet)
Winning margin to be under five seconds – 11/8 (Blue Square, 888 Sport)