Summer Festivals Betting Guide Extended Service

Fri, Aug 27, 2010

Saturday 28^th August

2.00 Goodwood
Hopefully Goodwood will get the go ahead after being forced to abandon racing on Thursday due to flooding. What is this country coming too when we are losing racing to bad weather in the height of summer? Enough moaning about the climate; this looks a pretty open little handicap. At the risk of stating the obvious, I quite fancy the chances of SURUOR here. Although he looked a hard ride at Ascot last time, being ridden from a fair way out, he showed a willing attitude to stay on strongly in the closing stages, finishing up 2L behind winner Castles In The Air. Jim Crowley has only ridden him the once and the pair went very close only going down by a head in a valuable Ascot handicap last year. This son if Intikhab looks a real 7f specialist to my eye and the ease in the ground should be up his street as he has shown some of his best form on softish ground. Axiom was poor for the early part of the season but there was a glimmer of hope when he ran okay in the Bunbury Cup. He then progressed again at Doncaster last time finishing much closer. He has dropped a further 1lb tomorrow and whilst he may still need to drop a few more, he goes well with cut in the ground, so I shall be monitoring his progress closely. Manassas is another that doesn’t seem to mind a bit of cut although I believe that he is better on a sounder surface. The blinkers have sharpened him up the last couple of times and whilst a 3lbs rise isn’t ideal, he should be capable of mounting a challenge.

2.15 Newmarket
Given that this race usually attracts a decent line up it is startling that the longest price winner in the last decade was a measly 7/1. The draw will likely play a part here but how is anyone’s guess. I quite like the profile of Tesslam and I think he still has a bit to offer off his current mark but he is untried on soft ground so you couldn’t back him with any degree of confidence. Chica Whopa looks on a handy mark at the moment based on her efforts this season. She had looked anchored until she posted a much better effort at Windsor last time and if she is able to go on from that, she could well step up a notch. Trained in Ireland last year by David Wachman, she ran 3^rd in a soft ground Curragh maiden, so at least we know she will handle it. Tartan Trip who despite a further climb up the weights remains open to improvement. Whilst he clearly gets a mile, the drop down in trip won’t do any harm and connections are reasonably confident that he will handle the conditions. But for my win selection I am going to take a chance on LEVIATHAN who was quite progressive last year ending with an impressive victory in a competitive soft ground Doncaster Nursery. He had a delayed start to the year and it showed when he was well down the field in a reasonable Southwell handicap although I didn’t think that the track particularly suited. That will have blown the cobwebs away I think we will see a much improved effort tomorrow.

2.30 Goodwood – Windflower March Stakes (Listed)
Gary Moore won this race last year with Mourilyan and will be hoping that Bergo can add to that. He was most impressive when winning the Queen Alexandra Stakes on the final day of Royal Ascot but I would be worried about the ground for him. All of his victories in this country, even over hurdles and fences, have come on top of the ground and his German form suggests he is ill at ease when there is some cut. Cumani’s DRUNKEN SAILOR will have no such problems as he won three times in his native Ireland on Soft ground or worse. He was 1 1/2L behind Free Agent in the John Smith’s Silver Cup but he was conceding a whopping 12lbs that day whereas here he is actually in receipt of 3lbs from that rival. Surely, with such a swing in the weights and on a racing surface that should suit him better, he will reverse the form with ease. Wajir has been well beaten on all three starts in this country but he is at his best with some juice in the ground and as he is sure to get the trip having won a Longchamp Group 3 over 1m7f last term. Whether he is good enough is a whole different question but my guess would be that he is and I rank him as a massive threat to the selection.

2.45 Newmarket
With most of the juveniles yet to encounter some cut in the ground, it could turn out to be something of a lottery but I was very impressed with the way BELGUIM BILL won at Doncaster last time. On his debut he had looked very sharp when finishing a runner up over 6f and the step up in trip next time really brought about improvement as he won by 3L going away. Both times the ground was quick, so I am taking a chance that he will handle the cut as he looks an exciting colt who holds some classy entries later in the season. Despite starting odds-on Whaileyy made hard work of winning a Yarmouth maiden last time, when after breaking smartly, he set only a modest pace. He is entitled to come on for the run but from what I have seen so far, I am asking myself is he really going to be top drawer. Orientalist defied a 4lbs rise for his Salisbury success when winning at Sandown last time. After being trapped towards the inside for much of the straight, he only got a clear run inside the final furlong, but he picked up well and had more in hand than the official margin suggests. Considering that he has only gone up another 4lbs, and with a clear run, the hat-trick is a distinct possibility.

3.00 Beverley
PALLENTES CROSS bids to give Mark Johnston a hat-trick of wins in this race. Being a big, rangy type of colt he was always going to be better as a three-year-old but even so he did okay last year. He took a while to come to himself this season, so after an absence of 324 days, he performed with credit at Ffos Las earlier this month chasing home the progressive King Of Reason, whilst conceding 10lbs, which proved impossible. He will come on bundles for the run and the step up in trip although this does look a very competitive heat. Many may think that the handicapper has the measure of Don’t Call Me but even though he is up another 6lbs since achieving his hat-trick at Ascot last time he is completely unexposed over this slightly longer trip. I know that connections have one eye on the Cambridgeshire for him and will be hoping that he can prove his mettle over this sort of trip. He is a very likable colt with a really game attitude, so even if he is beaten here keep an eye out for him. Luca Cumani doesn’t foray north without due cause so even though Gold Rules was disappointing last time, don’t rule out a much better effort. It was a hot little handicap at Newmarket last time and the race has since thrown up plenty of winners, so it isn’t perhaps as bad as first though, especially as he got very warm beforehand and the modest pace of the race didn’t really suit.

3.05 Goodwood – totesport.com Celebration Mile (Group 2)
A slightly disappointing turn out but an intriguing contest, none the less. When it comes to official ratings, there is virtually nothing to spilt MAIN AIM and Poet’s Voice. The trends don’t help either as three-year-olds and five-year-olds have each won this race 4 times in the last decade. Stoute is way out in front when it comes to trainers though, having won 6 of the last 10 runnings. Combine his record with the fact that Main Aim has won 3 times on Good to Soft ground or worse and I think we have our winner. Yes, he is stepping up to a mile for only the second time in his life but he didn’t do a bad job when chasing home Paco Boy in last season’s Queen Anne. It is not as if the Godolphin horse is a confirmed stayer as he has only raced twice over the distance although I do admit, it appeared to suit him in the Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury last time.

3.20 Newmarket – Novae Bloodstock Insurance Hopeful Stakes (Listed)
The trends really throw a spanner in the works here. As only one three-year-old has won this race in the last decade, half the field have something to prove and Sir Gerry also gets the bullet as only two recent winners have carried a penalty. So that leaves Advanced, Doncaster Rover and Caledonia Princess but to be honest I don’t fancy any of them. So I am going against the trends and siding with BATED BREATH to reverse the form with Dafeef. He was only 3/4L of a length behind him over course and distance last time even though he was conceding 3lbs and had to make his challenge wide, whereas Ted Durcan had the benefit of the rail. If I am honest, I would be much more confident on a sounder surface as Charlton did express his concerns about the ease in the ground last time but even so I expect to see a reversal. Mon Cadeaux ranks as a live wire but he has been declared a few times this season only to be withdrawn, so either he keeps getting niggling problems or he is very much ground dependant.

3.30 Beverley – totesport.com Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes (Listed)
Although 13 runners are set to go to post, you can more or less draw a line through those drawn in the lowest stalls as although the ground staff at Beverley has tried to reduce the effect of the draw, I believe that it still favours those on the far rail. Based on his last couple of runs behind Borderlescott at Goodwood and Hamish McGonagall at York, Captain Dunne would have been a fairly strong fancy but he will have to run well above that if he is to prevail from stall 5. Masamah was an impressive Listed winner at Chester earlier this month and he does have the best of it from stall 11. If he traps as quickly as he did at Chester he could prove difficult to peg pack if he is allowed too easy a lead. However, he is conceding weight to all of his rivals which no past winner of this race has done. With that in mind my selection goes to MASTA PLASTA after he gained his first for almost two years at Nottingham last time. Everything finally dropped into place for him that day and that should have boosted his confidence no end. He has winning form on any ground, so he won’t be inconvenienced either way and from stall 9 he should be able to nab the rail. Noble Storm had no answer to him at Nottingham off level weights as again he looked to keen early on for his own good. That was only his second start of the season so if he can settle better, he should be able to throw down a challenge from stall 8. Mister Hughie doesn’t have the best form figures but when you consider that he has spent most of this season pitching his trade at a much higher level than this, I wouldn’t be too quick to rule out his chances from stall 12.

3.40 Goodwood – Chichester Observer Prestige Stakes (Group 3)
Cape Dollar confirmed the promise she showed in a 6f Newmarket maiden on her debut with a tidy success at Newbury next time, in the process providing Stoute with his first juvenile winner of the campaign. However, whilst this daughter of Cape Cross looks very useful, she also looks well suited by quick ground, so on that basis I am going to take her on with THEYSKENS’ THEORY. A sizeable filly with a powerful, long stride, she won at Newmarket last month pretty much as she pleased and in a time that was marginally quicker than the three-year-old handicap run over the same distance earlier in the card. She´d clearly learned plenty from her racecourse debut at the same track earlier that month, jumping well to make every yard and she could have been called the winner a long way from home. After her victory there was talk of her going straight to the Fillies’ Mile but this looks a sensible stepping stone to give her some vital experience. Date With Destiny only has one race under her belt but she was very impressive. Hannon is very sweet on her which is probably the reason why she has been brought along slowly. A large striding filly, no doubt Pat Dobbs will give her plenty of cover tomorrow and if she is in a position to challenge inside the final furlong, she could surprise one or two. Sonning Rose has been seen since finishing runner up to Zaidan in the Chesham but I know that Mick Channon holds this filly in quite high regard. She wasn’t the biggest filly early in the year but she has strengthened up a little since then and I wouldn’t rule out a bold effort.

6.10 Windsor – totepool August Stakes (Listed)
Bullet Train has a bit to prove after disappointing in the Derby and King Edward VII Stakes on his last two starts. He clearly has ability having won the Lingfield Derby Trial with such ease but until we see that he is back to his best, he couldn’t be backed with any confidence. Traffic Guard won this race last year and couldn’t be arriving in better form to defend his title having won at Newmarket 2 weeks ago. Although it was his first success on soft ground, he clearly handles it with aplomb and with his confidence now restored; I won’t be reaching for the lay button. But it might be worth taking a chance on POMPEYANO who won a listed affair on soft ground in his native France. I quite liked the way he won at Epsom in July even though the 10f looked on the sharp side for him. He then ran okay in the Geoffrey Freer but I think he should appreciate the drop down in trip on ground like this tomorrow.

6.40 Windsor – totesport.com Winter Hill Stakes (Group 3)
CLASS IS CLASS and Distant Memories re-oppose having finish 2^nd and 3^rd in the Rose Of Lancaster Stakes earlier in the month. Both handle a softer surface but the winner that day, Poet, revelled in it. However, Tom Tate’s runner has 6L to find and under identical conditions I can think of no logical reason why he should. The biggest threat to Stoute’s chances of recording a 5^th success in this race in the last 11 years is Hot Prospect who won over 10f on the same Haydock card. After a respectable effort in the Lingfield Derby Trial, he was thrashed in the Derby but ran much better next time when dropped into handicap company. He built on that with a convincing win at Haydock and there could well be a lot more to come of soft ground proves to be his bag.

Sunday 29^th August

2.45 Curragh – Go An Go Round Tower Stakes (Group 3)
I can’t help myself, I am sticking with GLOR NA MARA. After tipping him for all three of his starts, surely this is a race in which he can open his account? The danger could well come from Big Issue who was an easy winner at Salisbury earlier this month to make amended for having been denied a winning debut at Goodwood when he was carried out wide. Hannon has a wealth of top juveniles at his disposal this year, so the fact that he has been waxing lyrical about this fellow suggests that his believes he is up to pattern company. Fred Archer, owned by Sheikh Mohammed, made a winning debut at Leopardstown two weeks ago. He was lowed to go off at 10/1 that day so there wasn’t too much expected of him but he looked a smart colt even though he looked pretty green. He can be expected to come on for the experience and he could prove a dark horse.

3.20 Goodwood – Harwoods Racing Club & Employees EBF Alice Keppel (Listed)
This looks a wide open affair but I am quite sweet on the chances of MIRROR LAKE who has been brought along nicely this year by Amanda Perrett. She has oozed class on both of her wins this season and fully deserves to take her chance at this level. A similar comment applies to Fastback and Critical Path although both of those have plenty to find with the principals based on official ratings. The two dangers could well come from the Pretty Polly winner Marie De Medici and Clarietta who looked a nice filly when chasing home Pipette at Kempton on her only start this season.

3.45 Curragh – Goffs Flying Five Stakes (Group 3)
The English have won all 6 renewals of this race, 3 of which went the way of Benbaun but I don’t think he is the horse is once was so I shall be looking elsewhere on Sunday. Depending on the prices I will be having a look at Tax Free who appeared to be almost back to his best at Deauville last time. Prior to that he had ran well behind TRIPLE ASPECT at Windsor off level weights, so the fact that he receives 3lbs here should help him to be competitive again. However, I am a big fan of the Haggas horse and I am so glad to see that he is now being campaigned over what I consider his ideal trip. I hope his confidence hasn’t been dented by his Goodwood exploits and if not I think he will take all of the beating here. Hamish McGonagall was a nice winner for us at York and if you back him you know that you are always going to get a run for your money. He is yet to record a victory in Pattern company but by god, surely he deserves it now?

3.55 Goodwood – Supreme Stakes (Group 3)
HIMALYA has been very expensive to follow this season but in his defence he has always run well in defeat and surely Jeremy Noseda has finally found an opportunity for him to record his first success since his debut back in may 2008. Aldovrandi is much less lightly raced but he has shown some very nice performances this season and it is interesting that he finished a narrowly beaten runner up on his debut in Italy on very soft ground. Perhaps it is the springboard he needs after two recent narrow defeats at Listed level.

4.15 Curragh – Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group 1)
Five of the last ten winners here did so after winning their last start. Expanding this out we see that the remaining five winners finished no worse than third on their last outing meaning those with a solid recent placed effort behind them should certainly be favoured. Only the once raced Quarter Moon in 2001 won this race without a previous career victory behind her, suggesting that Gatamalata, Light Footsteps, Mrs Happy, Negotiate and Palinode have plenty to prove. The Debutant Stakes, upgraded from Listed to Group 3 in 2001 and then from Group 3 to Group 2 in 2004, has been the major pointer to success in this race over the years. Six of the last 10 winners contested the 7f race so it’s easy to see why it has been such a strong guide. The race is run here at the Curragh, over the same distance and provides the perfect stepping stone to this Group 1 race. This year’s winner, Laughing Lashes, re-opposes the 2nd, 3rd and 6th today, namely; Misty For Me, Together and Gatamalata. If you’re looking for a bit of value in the Moyglare then you could do worse than follow trainer Kevin Prendergast. He has saddled the winner twice in the last four years at prices of 14/1 (Miss Beatrix) and 16/1 (Termagant), so Kissable must be seriously respected. Typically for a Group 1 race Aidan O’Brien has a decent record here with 4 winners in the last 10 years. Interestingly, all four of his winners were sent off favourite, suggesting that the filly he normally wins this with is top class. Together, Why and Wild Wind represent him today but with the latter being the shortest of the three in the betting, Sunday may not be his day. Elsewhere, Jim Bolger has this race on his CV on 3 occasions, most recently with Saoirse Abu in 2007. For a trainer well know for nurturing fillies and mares in his care it might be wise to not underestimate the chances of outsider Palinode. Mick Channon is the only overseas trainer that features on the roll of honour in recent times but Richard Hannon has also tasted success in this race back in 1993 with Lemon Soufflé which suggests that Memory won’t give up her unbeaten record without a fight. An average SP of just over 6/1 suggests those toward the head of the betting tend to perform as we would expect. Five market leaders have won here the last 10 years but at the same time we’ve had 16/1 and 14/1 winners (both trained by Kevin Prendergast as previously mentioned). Overall it would seem sensible to trust those toward the head of the market but don’t be totally put off if your fancy isn’t liked by the bookmakers. Overall, this looks a fascinating Group 1 event. Richard Hannon brings over the unbeaten Memory who has won three from three so far with her latest victory at Newmarket being visually very impressive. She ticks plenty of the right boxes and it’s hard to see her not being involved. However, Jessica Harrington landed a big juvenile race last weekend with Pathfork and she could double up here with LAUGHING LASHES. She too looks the part from a trends point of view and having won the all important Debutant Stakes on her last appearance looks set to land her first success at the top table. Aidan O’Brien saddles three but it is course and distance winner Wild Wind that looks the most interesting seeing as she had the beating of the selection when shedding her maiden tag at this track in June.