Summer Festivals Betting Guide Extended Service

Fri, Sep 3, 2010

Saturday 4^th September

2.00 Haydock
Linngari is the only three-year-old winner of this race since it was introduced to the calendar in 2003. Interestingly, he was trained by Sir Michael Stoute who is the leading trainer here having won the race twice so perhaps all is not lost for Desert Myth. Un-raced at two, he opened his account at the first time of asking at Newmarket’s Craven Meeting before stepping straight into pattern company, finishing 5^th in the Lingfield Derby Trial. That effort obviously convinced connections that he wasn’t a Derby horse and he was next seen in a Conditions event at Leicester, where he suffered a narrow defeat when sent of favourite. He was also sent off favourite for his next start in a Listed affair at Glorious Goodwood but again he suffered a narrow defeat. That was his first attempt at a mile but it looked to suit to my eyes and I am not surprised that Stoute is persevering with him over a mile. If he is able to repeat that performance, I expect him to be in the first three. Mark Johnston won the first running of this race with his stalwart Gateman, so Awzaan needs careful consideration. The winner of all of his 4 starts last term, which included the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes and Group 1 Middle Park, he flopped badly in the 2000 Guineas and media reports after the race suggested he was a none stayer. With my connection to the stable, I have obviously paid plenty of attention to his performances and have formed my own opinion. Firstly, he wasn’t the biggest of horses last season and he hadn’t grown all that much by the time of the Guineas, so it wasn’t a complete surprise that others had improved past him. But he has been given plenty of time since then and by all accounts he has filled out a bit over the summer. Secondly, Middleham suffered a terrible winter and it remained cold up there throughout the spring. As a result, many of Johnston’s horses were slow coming to themselves, as witnessed by the fact that he has still only had 10 juvenile winners from 98 starters, and Awzaan was clearly one of them. From my days at Kingsley House, I would like to think I know how Mark’s mind works. When Lucky Story was injured early season missing most of the summer, he was pencilled in for the QEII as his main target. Obviously, connections didn’t want to go straight to Ascot so he was given a pipe-opener in a Salisbury Group 3. This looks a similar situation, as he still holds an entry in the QEII and this probably his stepping stone to that prestigious Group 1. Obviously, a victory would be a perfect confidence booster but I am sure the main aim will be centred on race fitness. Bearing all of that in mind, SECRECY may prove the best bet. He looked a progressive horse last year and didn’t do a lot wrong on his sole start at Meydan. Given he hadn’t raced since then, I was impressed with his effort behind Sea Lord in the Sovereign Stakes leading me to believe that he was a good thing at Kempton next time, which he won with a fair degree of authority from stable mate and Dettori pick Sirocco Breeze, with another of today’s runners, Capital Attraction back in 3^rd. I like this horses attitude and with not many miles on the clock I feel that he is up to earning a bit of black type before the year is out.

2.10 Leopardstown – Kilternan Stakes (Group 3)
There are some reasonably strong trends surrounding this Group 3. In the last decade, Aidan O’Brien has won 4, Dermot Weld 3 and John Oxx 2. In that same time 7 three-year-olds have been successful and 3 four-year-olds. If that proves the case again AWAIT THE DAWN looks the one to beat. This very nicely bred son of Giant’s Causeway has fewer miles on the clock than most and looked open to any amount of improvement when winning a three runner affair at Cork last time. He gave me the impression that he was still rather green and perhaps a tad lazy but he won pretty much as he liked albeit not in eye-catching fashion. I think he just did enough which leaves me to surmise that he could be much better than we have seen when he is really required to pull out the stops. Cashelgar proved himself at this level last season but he has been off the track since July 2009 which is a slight concern. At his best he is more than capably of getting amongst it here but he might just need the run tomorrow. Therefore, Vitruvian Man could rank as the main danger after a narrow defeat at Tipperary last month. That came over 1m4f and whilst I don’t think there was a problem with him getting it, I think he may just be more at home over 1m2f at least for the time being. After winning the Leopardstown Guineas Trial, Noll Wallop was quietly fancied for the big one but I think he just got found out at that level. I would also be slightly concerned about his ability to handle such quick conditions as all his better efforts have come on a softer surface but I am sure Tommy Stack knows more than I do.

2.15 Kempton – totepool Sirenia Stakes (Group 3)
Although this race is only 4 years old, no past winner has done so under a penalty so it will be interesting to see if the Lowther winner, Hooray, can concede 2lbs. Personally, I think she probably can but there are one or two unexposed animals here that could throw a spanner in the works. Signs In The Sand is certainly one after his very impressive victory at Newmarket last month. True, it wasn’t the strongest maiden ever run at Newmarket but the ground was very tacky resulting in a time over 6 seconds slower that standard, so to win pretty much as he liked was pretty impressive. I understand that he is held in some regard by connections and that they feel that he is up to pattern class. We should find out on Saturday. But for my win selection I am siding with THE PADDYMAN who after hosing up by 8L at Yarmouth really stepped up to the plate by making Libranno work very hard for his victory in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes. Hannon’s horse has let the form down slightly by disappointing on the Morny but William Haggas’ colt had some nice horses behind him at Goodwood and I think he will land this on his way to the Mill Reef Stakes and possibly the Middle Park or Dewhurst.

2.30 Haydock
It is interesting that despite a strong looking card at Haydock, Paul Hanagan always planned to ride at Thirsk, as he bids for his first jockey’s title. So it might be worth dropping his Yorkshire runners into a string of multiples as surely he wouldn’t have missed this meeting unless he had a strong book of rides. I know that Hanagan is disappointed to be missing out on ANGLEZARKE in this competitive handicap. Apparently, she was set to have run her final race of the season at Beverley last weekend but she ran so well that connections shelved those plans and re-routed her here. Her young rider, Barry McHugh, is another top jockey of the Fahey production line and he is a more than capable stand in, especially with his 3lbs claim. I am sure that Favourite Girl, drawn next to her in stall 8, will provide a strong challenge. She has looked progressive all season until she disappointed at Ripon last time but I think the soft ground combined with the step up in trip proved her downfall rather than the extra 6lbs on her back. She is a filly that likes to race up with the pace and force things and she simply did too much too soon at Ripon. Strike Up The Band had been badly out of form all season until posting a much improved effort at Epsom on Tuesday, which coincided with him dropping to his lowest ever mark ever of 87. Adrian Nicholls obviously feels that he is a better option than stable mate Courageous, so I won’t be surprised to see him progress again tomorrow. Finally, I think Archer’s Road could still be some value off his current mark of 95. I was quite pleased with his effort at Goodwood last time and I believe that he is more than capable of landing a blow over the minimum trip.

2.40 Leopardstown – Coolmore Fusaichi Pegasus Matron Stakes (Group 1)
The Matron Stakes always sends a shiver down my spine as it was the final race won by my favourite ever filly, Attraction. Although she suffered defeat in the race in 2004, three-year-olds have a good record; winning 7 of the last 10 renewals. Spacious is the only filly to represent the older generation this year but I think she will find it difficult conceding 5lbs to some already very good three-year-olds. Morally, we have the English and Irish 1000 Guineas winners lining up in the shape of Jacqueline Quest and Bethrah, although I think the Irish filly has the more scope of the pair. I think Cecil’s filly has since proved that it was the draw and the fact that many of the runners were inconvenienced at Newmarket that allowed her five minutes of fame. The Irish filly on the other hand is altogether a different ball game. Unbeaten this season, she might have been a shock winner at the Curragh but there can be no denying she earned her success. My only slight concern surrounding her is that after her Guineas win, Dermot Weld suggested that she needed every yard of the mile and was eyeing 10f contests later in the season, so she might just get tapped for speed at this later stage of the season. Looking at the form of the Irish 1000, Coronation and Falmouth Stakes there is very little to separate MUSIC SHOW, Lillie Langtry and Gile Na Greine. As I see it panning out, Bolger’s filly will probably try to set out to make it a true test leaving her vulnerable to the rest. That will suit Channon’s and O’Brien’s runner and I wouldn’t be surprised to see either land the honours. I am siding with Music Show mainly because I feel that she had been very unlucky on all of her early season starts but when her luck eventually changed at Newmarket, she proved a decisive winner from a competitive line up. However, there is absolutely nothing in it so I won’t be going mad.

2.45 Kempton – totesport.com September Stakes (Group 3)
There are no trends to help us here but on a line through Sans Frontieres, LAAHEB looks the strongest selection. He has looked a highly progressive gelding over the past couple of seasons and I would not be disheartened by his defeat last time as I think the winner is potentially top drawer material. The soft ground also didn’t do him any favours at Newbury so I expect him to bounce back even though this is his first experience of the polytrack. Having said that, I expect to see Holberg throw down a serious challenge now that he has 2 runs under his belt. I am not sure he was suited by the track at Newmarket last time but he has experience of Kempton so I can’t see how he won’t improve on that effort. The Breeders’ Cup Marathon winner, Mon Of Iron hasn’t shown anything like the form he showed last year for Ballydoyle but I can’t help but think that Luca Cumani will be winning with him before the season is out. I can’t offer any logical reason why he should beat the two already mentioned but he could be worth a small each-way bet if the price is right.

2.55 Thirsk – Hambleton Cup
Having already mentioned Hanagan’s choice to ride at Thirsk, I think LADY LUACHMHAR could be interesting here. I know that he was looking forward to riding Arabian Spirit in this after he won well for him at Ayr last week but he looks to have found a suitable stand in. Ignore her run at York last month when she failed to see out the 2 mile trip, she will be much more suited to 1m4f tomorrow. Green Lightning will be one to thrown down a challenge as not only if his rider in top form but he has a decent 1 in 4 strike rate when riding for Johnston. This horse actually beat Harris Tweed at Newmarket in May before he hosed up in a valuable Musselburgh handicap and then narrowly losing out in the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy. George Adamson hasn’t done a lot wrong this season as he has gradually climbed up the weights. This is perhaps his biggest ask so far but if he can keep on improving in the same vein, he could surprise one or two.

3.05 Haydock – Betfred Kingspin Old Borough Cup
I am in a bit of a quandary here as I want to suggest LADY ECLAIR but I am conscious that my regulars will think I am being Johnston biased. Trip, ground and draw all look in her favour tomorrow and I am not put off by the fact that she is up another 4lbs. Joe is very sweet on this filly as she is so tough and brave, always pulling out all the stops to try and get her head in front. Elsewhere, Kansai Spirit warrants a particular mention after he won impressively at Newbury last month. He is up 9lbs as a result so will find life tougher but he has relatively few miles on the clock and is still unexposed over this trip. I have a feeling that Crackentorp has a big race in him this season but based on his last couple of efforts it is hard to see where it would come from. However, a closer look at the form suggest that he might improve over tomorrows trip especially as the handicapper has dropped him another couple of pounds to 87. A similar comment could also apply to Cosmic Sun who is now 5lbs lower than when last winning at York. One of his better performances last season came over this trip in the Mallard Stakes at Doncaster off 94, so if he is able to recapture that form off his current mark he could prove well in off just 8st 11lbs.

3.20 Kempton – Totescoop 6 London Mile Handicap
In the four runnings of this race we have had two 33/1 winners and a 20/1 shot go in so it isn’t a race to go wading into one of the runners. Shamir is really suited to the Kempton surface as he showed when winning here last month, when he and Tartan Trip had a ding-dong battle all the way to the line. The pair meets on virtually identical terms tomorrow so there shouldn’t be much to separate them once again. But given the history of un-fancied runners I am sticking my neck on the line with HIGHLY REGAL. He has been beaten out of sight on his last few starts but he has recorded 6 of his 7 victories at Kempton and he is now back to a mark of 78 which is 3lbs lower than when he won here in April. Stall 6 isn’t a bad draw so a small plunge may be the order of the day.

3.35 Haydock – Betfred Sprint Cup (Group 1)

Only 2 winners aged 6yo or older in the races history
19 of the last 20 had already won over 6f or further
8 of the last 10 winners achieved a top 3 finish last time out
8 of the last 10 winners came from the first 6 in the betting
6 of the last 10 winners had already won at Group 3 level or better
Fillies have won 5 of the last 16 renewals
Key races – Temple Stakes, Golden Jubilee & Nunthorpe Stakes
Trainers to follow with runners – Barry Hills & Roger Charlton

With horses aged 6 or older having a very low strike rate in this race, we should view Barney McGrew, Borderlescott, Fullandby, Genki, Markab, Prime Defender and last year’s winner Regal Parade with a fair degree of scepticism. Speaking of Regal Parade, it also needs pointing out that no horse since Sir Peter O’Sullevan’s Be Friendly back in 1966 and 1967 has won the Sprint Cup in successive years. After factoring in all of the other trends quite boringly, STARSPANGLEDBANNER is the only horse remaining. After winning the 6f Golden Jubilee and July Cup, I always thought he was vulnerable in the Nunthorpe and so it proved although as it was he ran better than expected to finish runner-up to the 100/1 shot Sole Power. Back over 6f on Saturday will be much more his bag and my spies tell me that he did a very impressive piece of work on Wednesday in preparation for this race. I also understand that the ground is drying out by the day at Haydock and with no rain forecast he should pretty much get an ideal racing surface. Currently around the 2/1 mark he may not be everyone’s cup of tea in such a competitive line up so the trends are suggesting Doncaster Rover may be a worthy opponent. The gelding’s main failure is that he is yet to win at Group level but he did win the Listed Hopeful Stakes on his latest start so he is coming into the race in top form. Yes, he has plenty to find with the top rated horses in the race but shocks are not uncommon in the Sprint Cup so the 25s currently on offer from Ladbrokes may him a viable alternative. I have already said that Regal Parade has a couple of big negatives to overcome but aside from that he fits in well with all of the other trends so probably deserves a place on the shortlist but at around 3/1 there is nothing to be gained by tipping him. So for my final selection, I am going to take a punt on Serious Attitude as fillies have a respectable record here. On her penultimate start in the Golden Jubilee she was finishing her race off nicely suggesting that the engine was still there and at the death was less than 5L behind the O’Brien horse. She was disappointing in the July Cup but she is relatively lightly raced and at 66/1 currently with Boylesports she might be worth taking an each-way punt.

3.45 Leopardstown – Tattersalls Millions Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1)
I am sure that it is me but this year’s renewal seems to lack a certain something? Rip Van Winkle is a very obvious selection given that he beat Twice Over reasonably comfortably in the Juddmonte International last month, but at around 4/6 he’s no value for me. It is no surprise that he is Murtagh’s choice but I wouldn’t say that Cape Blanco, the Irish Derby winner, can be completely ruled out, especially as the drop back to 10f could be in his favour if it is a strongly run race as he won’t be lacking stamina. Famous Name has some appealing form figures but I think he will really need to up his game again in this line up if he is to figure. The last five-year-old winner of this race was Fantastic Light back in 2001 so he also has a bit to prove on that front. So at the prices I am tempted by SEA LORD for my old boss. I hope I am not being led by my heart and I can’t say I have been given a hot tip, for there are plenty of unknowns surrounding him. Yes, he is very progressive, winning his last 4 starts on the spin albeit at a much lesser grade than this, but I know that connections have always considered him a Group horse in the making and Dettori has always been a big fan. More importantly, he is untried over the trip so either he will crash and burn or improve again which is what connections are hoping for rather than expecting. So in summary, Rip Van Winkle looks an obvious winner but I shall be taking an each-way punt that Sea Lord can lower his colours.

4.10 Haydock
This wide open nursery isn’t one to get too heavily involved with unless you have a strong opinion about one of the runners. I have heard that connections are quite bullish about EASY TICKET and are using this race to give him experience of a big field race as his season long target has been a valuable sales race at Newmarket. Obviously, he will need to prove himself tomorrow is such a competitive line up if he is to fulfil that ambition but either way, I think he could be one to keep an eye on from now until the end of the season. Talley Close had his beating at Redcar last month so will rate as a threat although with such a swing in the weights it will be tough. Although Morache Music wasn’t as visually impressive at Windsor last time he was probably value for a bit further than the official margin. Both of his victories came with cut in the ground so I shall be interested to see if a faster surface brings about improvement or hinders him.

4.45 Haydock
Not too much to say about this other than MEASURING TIME looks to be the one they all have to beat given that he looks well clear at the weights. The handicapper suggests that Sonning Rose will pose the biggest danger following her narrow defeat in the Chesham although she will have to bounce back after a slightly below par effort in the Prestige Stakes last weekend. Robin Hood looks an interesting runner for Aidan O’Brien but before we get too carried away wondering why he has sent this colt over to contest a Listed race, I would guess because he wanted a bit of company for his runner in the Sprint Cup. He was beaten convincingly in the Futurity Stakes behind Pathfork a fortnight ago, so perhaps this drop in class will prove to be more his level.

Sunday 5^th September

12.35 Longchamp – Prix La Rochette (Group 3)
With only six runners set to go to post this is not a race to get too involved with. I know that Brian Meehan thinks a fair bit of The Long Game who after winning an Ascot maiden ran a respectable race to finish 4^th in the Richmond. Considering that there is plenty of speed in the family I thought he looked a little bit out of his grade and whilst this represents a slightly easier proposition, I think he has something to prove now, especially as MAIGURI has looked a progressive colt this season albeit with cut in the ground. He hasn’t been rushed by connections and has been steadily upped in class. This represents another step up but as yet I can’t see where his limitation will end. King David looks held on a line through Hung Parliament who was an impressive Listed winner at Deauville last month. The soft ground seemed to suit him that day so it will be interesting to see how he fares if the ground rides faster.

2.40 Longchamp – Prix Du Moulin de Longchamp (Group 1)
I am not sure this is a betting race but it looks an intriguing contest none the less. Rightly or wrongly, I have always considered Paco Boy to be an early season horse and on that basis I have my reservations about him on Sunday. But, he is the arguably the best horse in the race by some way so I will be interested to see if my opinion is proved right or wrong. The form of the French 2000 Guineas has worked out well so in my mind Lope De Vega was an above average winner. That view was backed up when he was an ultra impressive winner of the Prix Du Jockey Club over 1m2 1/2f. That does set the alarms bells ringing as when he dropped back to a mile in the Jean Prat he was comprehensively beaten by Dick Turpin. He looked a bit of a monkey that day getting worked up before being loaded in the stalls and at no point seemed settled into the race. There is every chance that was a one off but I wouldn’t be putting any cash on the line until I had seen him going down to the start calm and relaxed. That may leave the door open for RIO DE LA PLATA to record his first Group 1 success since winning the Grand Criterium in 2007. Aside from a woeful effort when the soft ground beat him in the Rose Of Lancaster Stakes he has looked almost back to his best this year and although he has a few pounds to find on the form book, he does look tempting if the ground remains on the faster side of Good.

3.10 York
This may only be a claimer but there are some decent horses entered including Sunnyside Tom who has won his last 4 starts, all in claiming company. The key to this horse is his attitude; he is as game as they come and although he is going an extra furlong on Sunday if he is allowed to bowl along at the head of affairs he is going to be very difficult to pass. But despite that I am siding with JO’BURG who has already won twice over Sunday’s trip this year and really impressed me when chasing home the decent Forte Dei Marmi at Sandown last month. With Ryan Moore on board he could well have too much class for most of these. Charlie Cool has been a bit hit or miss recently but in his defence he has been racing in some hot company and this does represent an easier proposition, just, and James Sullivan’s 3lbs claim could prove vital.

3.45 York
A typically competitive York sprint handicap in which 18 runners are set to go to post. Many of the runners are well known names so many will have their own idea of the winner. I was tempted by Valery Borzov off his current mark of 88 but I understand that the ground up at York is riding pretty quick and he is a horse that I feel is better with a bit of cut. So I am going to change my mind and go with HITCHENS who seems to have been around forever but he is still only a five-year-old. There is no doubt that a fast 6f is right up his street and he is only a pound higher now than when winning at Haydock last year. His three most recent efforts have been better than the bare form suggests and with his rider much underestimated, he will do for me. Midnight Martini is relatively lightly raced and aside from a couple of below par efforts, looks a progressive filly. Favoured by a fast 6f, I think she could still be a few pounds ahead of the handicapper, so have her down as a threat to the selection. Piazza San Pietro has been in a rich vein of form this year and even though he was on a career high mark at Ripon last time, he still ran a cracker to finish 3^rd to Tajneed. He is off the same mark on Sunday and with Ryan Moore booked to ride; I can’t see him being far away.