St Leger Service

Tue, Sep 7, 2010

Wednesday 8^th September

2.00 – Arena Structures Nursery
It is always nice to get a festival like this off to a winning start but this doesn’t look the easiest of races to get to the bottom of. Orientalist is an obvious starting point given that he has won his last 3 starts over tomorrow’s trip. On each occasion it was a narrow margin so the handicapper hasn’t been able to go overboard and with Adam Beschizza claiming back 5lbs of the 6lbs penalty he receives for winning at York on Sunday he is entitled to go close once again. But he could prove vulnerable to a less exposed rival such as MY FREEDOM who looked very impressive when disposing of the even money favourite at Nottingham on his debut. Although the ground was officially described as Good, there had been plenty of rain over the previous 2 days so this 260,000 euro Invincible Spirit shouldn’t have any issues with the ground. Of course a maiden success is a far cry from what looks a wide open nursery but he did it so easily without being asked a serious question that I feel he could easily be up to justifying his Mill Reef Stakes entry. Bridal Belle also defends a 100% record following her debut victory at Thirsk in July. Although she signed signs of greenness she picked up well to win going away giving the impression that she can only improve and win more races. The form of the race has worked out quite well after the runner-up, Regal Kiss won at Redcar last Thursday, the 3^rd horse Jetfire has since won in France and the 5^th horse Kalleidoscope won at Beverley. Whilst she may not have the scope of Godolphin’s runner, she is a filly I like. Rerouted could be dangerous to dismiss even though he failed to justify market support at Newmarket in July. He has been given a break since then and if it has the desired effect his big weight may not pose a problem.

2.35 – A J Webb & Son Fresh Produce Suppliers Conditions Stakes
Richard Hannon has won this race 3 times in the last 5 years so Admirable Spirit certainly warrants attention. She went into plenty of notebooks when winning on her debut at Newbury in July before failing to see out the stiff 7f at Sandown next time. She was expected to bounce back next time at Chester but although she travelled strongly throughout she found the vastly more experienced Belle Royale was not for passing. On that evidence she does have a bit to find with some of her rivals but you can never rule out a Hannon runner in this type of race. Barefoot Lady was hugely impressive when winning at Beverley on her debut last month. It is always too easy to get carried away by overplaying maiden form, as it was a weak race on paper, but from the worst of the draw she won going away and deserves the utmost respect here after such an auspicious debut. But a marginal preference is for DUBAWI GOLD who looked to have a bright future ahead of him when chasing home High Award in the Woodcote in June but he found the drop in trip too hot to handle in the Norfolk behind Approve. Better things were expected in the Gimcrack but he looked slightly awkward at the start and then found plenty of trouble in running. However, once his chance was gone Fallon did the sensible thing and eased his mount down, hence the long losing distance. Whilst a Group 2 might be punching above his weight at the moment he should be much more at home here and it is interesting to see that he is the only runner carrying 8st 13lbs, the same weight carried by the last 3 winners of this race. Belle Bayardo has already won 3 times this season although all came over the minimum trip and he did look a tad high in the weights over 6f at Windsor last month. There is no doubt that he has ability but he looks up against it here conceding weight all round. Choose Wisely is the top rated horse in the race as a result of his 1/2L 3^rd in the Molecomb but he has been disappointing on both starts since then and does look vulnerable to a less exposed rival. Katell won an ordinary maiden in decent enough style but ran into a potentially classy animal at Nottingham next time. He was then really thrown into the deep end in the Group 3 Acomb when his stamina and class limitations were exposed over the 7f. This is easier but others are preferred. Lady Royale looks completely exposed and it would be a surprise if she was good enough in this line up.

3.10 – Scarborough Stakes (Listed)
6 of the last 7 winners of the Scarborough Stakes carried 9st 9lbs so that seems as good a starting point as any. Jeremy Noseda won this race last year with Strike the Deal and I fancy him to follow that up with a victory for GROUP THERAPY. This son of Choisir progressed nicely last season and picked up where he left off with a straight forward success at Beverley on his reappearance in June. He has since run two crackers behind the highly progressive Triple Aspect in a Sandown Group 3 and Borderlescott, a dual Group 1 winner, in the Group 2 King George Stakes at Goodwood. On each occasion he got within 1/2L of the winner and as long as he doesn’t get too fired up in the preliminaries, this looks his for the taking. Rose Blossom, 5^th in last month’s Nunthorpe, will probably cut out the early running and I don’t think many will pass her if she is allowed to get in her stride. Hanagan has been riding like a man possessed this season so I would be surprised if she is out of the first three. Captain Dunne rarely fails to run his race and although he has been beaten on his last 6 starts, on the whole he has done little wrong in defeat so I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him. A similar comment applies to Tax Free who has run well on both of his last two starts. The dark-horse of the race could turn out to be the unexposed Burning Thread. Tim Etherington thought he had a classy juvenile on his hands last season but he turned out to be too backward and immature to do himself justice, so like any trainer worth his salt, he gave the horse time. That patience was rewarded at the 3^rd time of asking with a convincing conditions success at Beverley before he followed up with a Listed victory at Sandown in June, despite still showing signs of immaturity. He was then given a break with a view to an autumn campaign so it will be very interesting to see how he progresses. However, he does have one massive trend to overcome as no three-year-old has won this race in the last decade.

3.45 Fudge And Smudge Legends Classified Stakes
There are some of the sport’s most well known names riding here and although some of them hung up there britches a good while ago, rest assured this will be no place for any shrinking violets. With only a few pounds separating the entire field it is not really a serious betting opportunity but at around 14/1 MASTER OF DANCE will do for me. His last 3 efforts have been better than the bare form suggests and with the utmost respect to all of the riders taking part, do any of them ride Doncaster better than Pat Eddery? Daring Dream has been ultra consistent this season but I might be being led by the jockey booking, Alex Greaves, as I made plenty of money following her during her time in the saddle. Charlie Swan was a top class rider over fences and he looks a positive booking for Miami Gator, who has won 3 of his last 4 starts albeit in claiming company. Army Of Stars and Eastern Gift are 2 interesting runners as they are to be ridden by their trainers Jamie Osborne and Gay Kelleway. Both riders were very competitive in the saddle, so will definitely be taking this race seriously, and dare I say they may have been specifically training their mounts for this race to give them another day in the limelight? Whatever the result, this is exactly the sort of race that can bring fun into racing and not only do they raise money for a worthy cause but they also help raise the profile of racing. Well done, Donny.

4.20 Wilson Field Neurocare Conditions Stakes
Wigmore Hall is not only the top rated horse here but he is also the one coming into the race at the top of his game. He has won 3 of his 7 starts this season and achieved a top 3 place in the 4, including the runners up spot in the Group 1 Secretariat Stakes at Arlington last month. He remains a highly progressive animal and could well be up to justifying his entry in the Champion Stakes next month with victory here. But he is likely to be pretty short so I am going to have a go at taking him on. AL ZIR looks a decent colt last season winning his first two starts before finishing 3^rd in the Racing Post Trophy to the forgotten St Nicholas Abbey. He has been beaten convincingly on both of his starts this season but in his defence it was in the 2000 Guineas and Derby! I thought the mile at Newmarket looked on the sharp side for him given that he looks to be one to lengthen rather than quicken but then I he looked like a non stayer in what I consider a strange Derby. 10f could well turn out to be his ideal trip and as Saeed Bin Suroor and Frankie Dettori have each won this race 3 times in the last 7 years, he will do for me, especially if there is more rain. Black Spirit is one I deliberated over for quite some time as he ran solid races on both of his last two stars at Group 2 level. The step up to 10f really seemed to suit and I think he looks a major player here.

4.50 – Crabbie’s Alcoholic Ginger Beer Handicap
This race is only 3 years old so there aren’t any trends to help us and a quick look through the firm suggests that it will be a tricky contest to unravel. Richard Hannon won the inaugural running so let’s start off with his runner KAJIMA. This son of Oasis Dream started the season off 69 after 3 modest efforts last season but 3 victories and 3 placed efforts have seen him rise to 93 and based on the way he scythed through the field at Kempton last month off 87, I am not sure that the handicapper has him just yet. He was getting 4lbs from runner up Colepepper that day, so off identical terms I see no reason why the form should be reversed although that it always a dangerous assumption to make surrounding a Johnston trained horse, especially when his runner won with some authority at Brighton last month, beating Layla’s Hero in the process. Leviathan impressed me when beating Yaa Wayl in a nursery in Town Moor last season but he wasn’t seen out again until August, obviously suffering some sort of setback. It therefore wasn’t surprising that he needed the race as he finished some 20L off the winner but he ran a much better race at Newmarket next time, finishing 6^th to Bullwhip. Those two runs will have brought him on no end and even if things don’t go his way tomorrow, he is a horse to keep an eye on for the remainder of the season. Whilst he might just need the run tomorrow, Flying Statesman is another to keep an eye on over the remainder of the season. Last June he beat Layali Al Andalus in pretty convincing fashion in an Ayr maiden. That rival then went on to be runner up to St Nicholas Abbey in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes although he has been disappointing this season since joining Godolphin. Richard Fahey considered him good enough to contest the Coventry but he ran below par for one reason or another and hasn’t been heard of since. As long as he suffers no ill effects of his set back, he could be fairly treated off 90 and I will be very interested to see if the market speaks in his favour.

5.20 – 2010 Launch Stratstone Land Rover Doncaster Handicap
They don’t come any tougher than a 21 runner sprint handicap but I will give it a go. Captain Coke, who has already won four times this season for Denis Quinn changed hands for 80,000gns in July before running well on his debut for Michael Jarvis at Sandown off a revised mark of 81. Even though he was unable to justify the strong market support, he ran well in defeat given that he was entitled to need the run after two months off the track and I think he still has the potential to leave that run well behind. However, he is conceding plenty of weight to some potentially well handicapped runners lurking in the work word and no three-year-old has won this race in the last decade, so a place is possibly the best he could hope for. Italian Tom lowered his colours in that Sandown contest but he was allowed to go off at 33/1 that day so doesn’t appeal as one to follow up off his revised mark. Doric Lady might seem an odd selection based on recent form figures but she looked to be returning to form at Yarmouth last time after a couple of below par efforts. She is starting to look nicely handicapped off the same mark tomorrow as when winning at Lingfield last season and with soft ground form in the bag and the likelihood that she will get the good gallop she requires, she could be one to go well at a decent price. Luscivious also looks to be on a handy mark at the moment given that he won at Southwell last month off 86, 6lbs higher than tomorrow. Three of his turf victories have come on ground with some juice in it and with 5f looking his ideal bag I can see him going close. But for my win selection I am going with GRISSOM, whom I assume is owned by fans of CSI. He too appears best when able to get his toe in judged on his victories at Musselburgh and Ayr last season, so I though he posted a highly respectable effort at Haydock last time given that the ground was rather on the quick side. Off a 1lb lower mark, over a furlong shorter and on ground that looks set to suit I feel that he has a big race in him especially if the far rail proves the place to be from stall 6.