Summer Festivals Betting Guide Extended Service

Thu, Sep 9, 2010

Friday 10^th September

1.35 – Polypipe Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2)
This looks a decent renewal and realistically at least half a dozen look to have strong claims. Immediately after watching Temple Meads fail to stay 6f in the Gimcrack I decided that his next target should be this race so I am slightly disappointed that he is not lining up. I am sure that connections had the same thoughts as me so it speaks volumes that they have declared ELECTRIC WAVES instead. After 2 sound efforts in May she stepped up to the plate at Warwick in June with a convincing maiden success and then built on that by winning a competitive little Haydock nursery in the style of a listed filly at least. She confirmed that at Newbury next time when she achieved her hat-trick of wins in St Hugh’s Stakes. She beat some nice fillies in the process such as Sweet Cecily and Hooray. The key to this filly is the ground. All of her better efforts have come on Good ground of softer so that may have had something to do with their decision to run her rather than Temple Meads. If, as I suspect, the ground will be riding perfect by the time of the off, a big shout must be given to the Irish filly Meow. This daughter of the top class Airwave couldn’t have been more impressive when winning a Tipperary maiden by 7L in May and I was expecting her to take all of the beating in the Queen Mary. As it was she just failed to catch the winner Maqaasid but lost nothing in defeat so she was a strong fancy when dropped back to listed class at the Curragh next time. She had to work hard for her victory but always had the runner up held. Dinkum Diamond was an impressive winner of the National Stakes on only his 2^nd start at Sandown but the fast ground in the Norfolk done for him and he returned home pretty sore. He was given a little break then bought back for the Nunthorpe were he ran very well against the older horses to finish just under 4L behind the eventual winner. I know Henry Candy thinks and awful lot of this horse and it could be very dangerous to underestimate him. Zebedee has provided writers with plenty of ammunition this season so I shall avoid it here but his record of 5 wins from 6 starts tell us all we need to know. Victories in the Dragon Stakes and Molecomb earned him his black type and he then earned connections a welcomed £50k by winning a valuable 6f sales race at Newmarket last time. There is always the danger that his busy campaign may have just taken the edge of him but I haven’t seen any evidence of that so far and he must have every chance. New Planet is less exposed than most but he won a competitive Roses Stakes at York last time on only his 2^nd start. If he can build on that he must come into this race with every chance. He had Face The Problem well held in that contest but Barry Hills’ runner raced on the opposite side of the track so I wouldn’t read too much into that form. Prior to that, he had looked highly progressive winning a maiden and 2 nurseries on the trot and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see him bounce back. The French filly Keratiya is also no forlorn hope. A Group 3 winner in her homeland; she didn’t run too badly in the Group 1 Prix Morny last month and her trainer won’t be making the trip to Doncaster for nothing.

2.05 – Ladbrokes Mallard Stakes
Regular readers will already know I much I like Lady Éclair but I sometimes wonder if I let me heart rule my head when she is racing so I am going to ignore her in this review although she won’t go un-backed by me tomorrow. She is just one of those fillies who doesn’t know she is beaten and keeps on giving everything she has got. So for my win selection I am going with Ebor flop FORTUNI. I don’t think it was the trip or the extra 11lbs that got him beat at York I just thought he didn’t get the run of the race and racing up the far rail in the straight didn’t seem the place to be. Prior to that he had looked a highly progressive stayer when beating a subsequent Royal ascot winner at the Derby Meeting and I fancy him to bounce back. Hanovarian Baron is so far untried over this trip but I have a feeling that it could bring out the best in him. In the last 12 months he has only run one below par race, in the Old Newton Cup, and I was very impressed with him last time when he pushed Forte Dei Marmi to 1L at Sandown. He continues to creep up the weights but I still expect him to run a big race. Three-year-olds have a decent record in this race and Zuider Zee could well reverse the Melrose form with Mount Athos and Tactician with a big swing in the weights. The Gosden/Buick team have been in god form recently so I think he could be in with a decent shout. Maxim Gorky doesn’t have many miles on the clock but he looked a nice horse in the making when winning over and extended 1m6f at Newmarket last time. Being by Montjeu out of a Diesis mare he should stay all day and I wouldn’t have thought a drop of rain would harm his chances.

2.40 – Doncaster Cup (Group 2)
Horses carrying a penalty have won 6 of the last 8 Doncaster Cups so that is a huge positive for Opinion Poll who won the Lonsdale last time beating Samuel, Electrolyser and Tastahill into the process. I would guess on the back of that he may well go off favourite so it may be worth taking a chance that SAMUEL can reverse the form. He was only 1/2L behind him at York off level weights and a 3lbs swing could well see a reversal, especially when you consider that Gosden’s horse had been off the track for the best part of 2 years and it was only his 2^nd start back. Prior to his absence he had shown top class form against some very good benchmarks so if as I assume he improves again, this could be his for the taking. The grey filly Motrice is a very interesting runner for Sir Mark Prescott. In typical Prescott style she started the season rated 60 before easily winning 3 on the spin when stepped up to 1m6f. She has her colours lowered by the classy Eastern Aria at Goodwood last time but she did little wrong in defeat and as staying on dourly in the closing stages suggesting that she should handle this step up in trip. She is currently 16/1 for the Cesarewitch so her handler must think that she is up to this grade. Only 1 three-year-old has won this race in the last decade; Alleluia, trained by you guessed it Sir Mark.

3.15 – Keepmoat “Delivering Community Regeneration” May Hill Stakes (Group 2)
Mignight Caller looked a filly full of potential when winning a soft ground Leicester maiden last month but there wasn’t much strength in depth in that race where as WHITE MOONSTONE has already proved herself at a good level by winning the Sweet Solera at Newmarket last time. The official margin was just over 1L but she still look green and inexperienced to me and so I think she was probably good value for a fair bit further. It is very easy to wax lyrical about a horse after just a couple of runs but this daughter of Dynaformer looks the real deal to me and I expect that she will be high in the lists of betting for next year’s Classics after she wins here, especially if she is supplemented for the Fillies’ Mile in a fortnight. Lily Again could prove the dark horse of the race as she has run some nice races this season always giving me the impression that she will improve once stepped up to a mile. If odds-on betting isn’t your bag, she could be a decent alternative.

3.50 – Brakes Fresh Ideas Handicap
You could argue a case for many of the runners here but there might be some value to be had with KAPTAIN KIRKUP once the betting opens. Although he was only 11^th on his reappearance at Newmarket he was only 3L behind the winner so it came as no surprise when he hacked up at York beating the subsequent Royal Ascot winner in the process. He then ran okay behind Shakespearean at Epsom of his revised mark of 102 but he has been disappointing on his last couple of starts. However, the handicapper has relented and he is back down to 102 and the booking of Ryan Moore looks a massive positive. If the ground continues to dry out he could also have an ideal draw from stall 2. Citrus Star was one of my 50 to follow service earlier in the year so I was pleased to see him win at Goodwood last time. This will be tougher off a 3lbs higher mark but I still think he is progressing and could well go close. Nasri is an interesting runner for me as I am sure that we haven’t seen the best of him yet this season. He is down 2lbs since finishing just over 6L behind Treadwell in the Buckingham Palace so I can see him getting involved tomorrow from stall 5. Even though he won at Newmarket in July, I know that Andrew Balding still considers Fireback to be an unfinished article. He has a bit of form to find with Citrus Star based on their Goodwood run but from such a feather weight he could be dangerous to dismiss.

4.25 – Frank Whittle Partnership Conditions Stakes
Only 5 runners here and it doesn’t take a form expert to conclude that FRANKEL is good thing. He was very impressive on his debut when he and the runner up Nathaniel surged clear of their rivals at Newmarket and the runner up has since franked the form when only narrowly going down to another off the Cecil treadmill Picture Editor at Doncaster on Thursday. Farhh looks next best as he too was an impressive 6L maiden winner at Newmarket but it wasn’t as strong as Frankel’s and I would guess he would have to improve a fair bit to trouble the selection. Diamond Geezer has already shown his limitations but he is vastly more experienced and could cause an upset if the selection has an off day.

4.55 Universal Recycling Classified Stakes
Three-year-olds have won the last 6 renewals of this race so if the trends are correct, that makes it a 4 horse race! Willing Foe, a brother to the 2008 Ribblesdale winner Michita, was well supported on his debut at Wolverhampton last November, a maiden that has produced winners, but he ran very disappointingly looking weak and backward. Given a long time to get over that, he proved that effort to be all wrong with an authoritative success over course and distance in July, despite edging left in the closing stages. However, although the runner-up won next time out, it doesn’t look the strongest of races with hindsight but he is entitled to improve and should do himself justice. Preference is for the more experienced ABERGAVENNY who looked to have plenty of progression in him when winning at Windsor in July of a modest 75. He didn’t really look to be moving forward on his next couple of starts but he posted a much better effort at Bath last time when he only failed by a nose. The handicapper deemed that worthy of a 4lbs rise up the weights but as this is a classified race he looks well in against his older rivals. Bonfire Night has been unlucky on his last three starts and deserves to gain compensation at some point. He ran well over course and distance the time before last and will appreciate the perfect conditions come race time. If an older horse is to get involved it could well be Pendragon who had The Witch Doctor behind him last time. Whilst in this rich vein of form anything could be possible.