St Leger Service

Fri, Sep 10, 2010

Saturday 11^th September

2.10 – Neptune Investment Management Champagne Stakes (Group 2)
Even allowing for his 3lbs penalty, Approve is still the top rated horse in the line up. Already the winner of the Group 2 Norfolk and Gimcrack Stakes it would seem that anything is possible with this horse but I do have a question mark in my head how he will handle this step up in trip and as he has already had a long season compared to all of his rivals here, I am willing to take him on. WAITER’S DREAM has already proved his salt over the trip; firstly when winning at Newbury in very impressive style in July and secondly when putting a decent line up to the sword in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York’s Ebor meeting. On both occasions Kieren Fallon made is look very easy as both races were landed by margins of 4L. This does represent a further step up in class but on all evidence so far he looks more than up to it. Saamidd concedes experience to both of those rivals but produced an astonishing turn of foot to shoot right away from his rivals on his debut over 7f at Newbury last month. It was a decent race on paper but he turned it pretty much into a procession in the closing stages in the manner of a very smart animal. Sometimes class can overcome inexperience so I rank him as a very serious threat to the selection.

2.45 – Ladbrokes Portland

3 & 4yo’s have the best record in the Portland but 5yo’s have won the last 3
8 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 93 or higher
6 of the last 10 winners achieved a top 4 finish last time
6 of the last 10 winners came from a double figure draw
6 of the last 10 winners came from the first 6 in the betting
4 of the last 7 winners had finished down the field in the Great St Wilfrid
The Stewards’ Cup has supplied 5 recent winners
Kevin Ryan, Gerard Butler, Clive Cox and John Quinn have records better than most

There are plenty in with chances here but the trends are suggesting a big run from QUEST FOR SUCCESS to continue the recent run of form for Five-year-olds in this race. Although he is yet to record a victory this year he has run some very nice races in defeat, including a narrow defeat by Hamish McGonagall at York last time off the same mark as tomorrow. Prior to that he had finished 5^th in the Great St Wilfrid (beaten 2L) and that is a race which has proved a good trial for this race down the years. I don’t really see stall 14 being a problem as 4 of the last 7 winners of this race came from 13 to 18 and it can only be a positive to have a man like Hanagan in the saddle as he pushes for his first Jockey’s Championship. He does have a length and a half to find with Masamah based on his defeat by him at Chester in early August but he meets that rival on 2lbs better terms tomorrow. In fact I was close to putting Jamie Spencer’s mount on the short list as he too ticks plenty of the right boxes but as he is racing off 102 I have left him off as none of the last 10 winners were rated higher than 100. So I have given his place to another of Kevin Ryan’s challengers Bajan Tryst. He wouldn’t be as strong as the other two from a trends point of view but there is no denying he arrives here in decent form having won at Dundalk last time when he appeared to relish the step up in trip to 6f, having previously suffered narrow defeats over 5f at the Curragh and Goodwood. The handicapper responded with a 9lbs rise up the weights so the fact that he races off 96 here suggests that he could well have a couple of pounds in hand and with Ryan Moore on his back possibly more. Stall 6 may not be ideal but then again 2 of the last 5 winners did so from stall 5. Although a three-year-old hasn’t on here since 2000, I am giving a place on the shortlist to the lightly raced Deacon Blues who has been very consistent this season as he climbed up the handicap ranks. He has already proved that he handles any type of ground and with Frankie on board it will be interesting to see if he can carry on improving. For my final selection I am going to wing it a bit and side with Striking Spirit. I have been convinced all season that this horse has a big race in him at some point. He almost proved me right with a very nice effort in the Wokingham before disappointing in the Stewards’s Cup next time. His apprentice riders puts him back on the same mark as when chasing home Laddies poker Two at Ascot and I must admit, I have been tempted by the 25s on offer.

3.20 – Ladbrokes St Leger (Group 1)

All of the last 10 winners achieved a top 3 finish last time
10 of the last 12 winners were by a stallion with an index figure of 11f+
8 of the last 10 winners had run in a European Derby
The favourite has won 8 of the last 13 renewals
The last 6 Oaks winners to run here all achieved a top 3 finish
6 of the last 10 winners achieved a top 3 finish in the Great Voltigeur
Aidan O’Brien is the leading trainer with runners

I am not looking forward to writing this as I know where it is leading and that is a victory for the short-priced favourite REWILDING. The winner of the Great Voltigeur last time after finishing 3^rd in the Derby meets all of the trends head on as even his stallion Tiger Hill has a stamina index figure bang on 11f. Trying to look for reasons to take him on has drawn blanks, will he stay? Almost certainly. Is he the best horse in the race? Most probably. How will the ground affect him? It won’t, he has won of ground ranging from Good to Heavy. 6/4 is rather short for a competitive race such as this but I really can’t offer any sensible argument to suggest not backing him. Midas Touch chased him home at York or should I say trailed in his wake with Joshua Tree back in 3^rd and Ted Spread 4^th. There is no logical reason why any of those should reverse the form but weren’t we saying exactly the same thing about Monitor Closely and Mastery this time last season? You could argue that Midas Touch will get closer off level weights as he was conceding 3lbs at York and that Joshua Tree will come on for the run as it was his first start since winning the Royal Lodge the previous September. If push comes to shove, I think I would prefer the former but I really don’t think there is much between the pair. Personally, I would like to see Dandino win as he has been the model of consistency this season. The winner of all 4 starts so far, James Given’s colt only found Rebel Solider too good in the Gordon Stakes and even then the verdict was only a head. That particular Goodwood contest has supplied 3 recent St Leger winners although all 3 had been winners, so he does have a minor blip to overcome.

3.55 – Eddie Stobart Park Stakes (Group 2)
Let me set the picture. Iffraaj won in 2005 & 2006, Arabian Gleam in 2007 & 2008 and Duff won in 2009 & ? Do you see where I am heading? Yes, it is a trend but surely too much of a coincidence for Duff to win it this year, especially as no seven-year-old have ever won this race. Other than that the only positive trend I can see is that Jeremy Noseda has won the race twice but I couldn’t be backing Himalya if I found a tenner as he has failed to produce time and time again this season and dual winner Arabian Gleam hasn’t looked the horse he once was so far this season. Premio Loco has been as consistent as they come over the past couple of seasons and he has looked a good as ever when winning the Group 3 Criterion Stakes and Group 2 Summer Mile. Hell, he even pushed Canford Cliffs to 3 1/2L when finishing 3^rd in the Susses. The only down side I can see is that he needs top of the ground and as it is currently raining outside my office window, he may get bogged down if it becomes tacky. One that won’t be inconvenienced by softish conditions is the recent Hungerford winner SHAKESPEAREAN who confidently disposed of Cat Junior, Ouqba and Himalya with the minimum of fuss. He looked a very smart horse when with Mark Johnston last season and picked up where he left off at Epsom on his reappearance. I think the ground was possibly too quick for him at the Royal Meeting where he was well beaten in the Jersey behind Rainfall and I think his stamina limitations were exposed when beaten over a mile at Maisons-laffitte. The Jersey winner Rainfall has to be interesting here receiving weight from all of her rivals. After her Royal romp she ran another belter to finish 3^rd to Music Show in the Group 1 Falmouth and the 5^th to Goldikova in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild. Both of those efforts came over a mile and I have it on good authority that on both occasions her stamina was stretched to breaking so this step down seems the way to go for the time being. I wouldn’t be worried by the going as she ran very well on Good to Soft in May when finishing runner up in the Sandy Lanes Stakes at Haydock. Of the rest Harrison George isn’t discounted lightly as he looks something of a 7f specialist to me and he won’t mind a drop of rain whilst Cat Junior doesn’t have that much to find with the selection. High Standing is a favourite of mine but I have yet to make my mind up over his ability to stay 7f at this level, so I will be having a watching brief on him tomorrow.

4.25 – Powell Engineering Nursery
It has been a strange year for me as usually I would be backing plenty of Johnston trained juveniles but they have been so out of sorts this year I have been leaving well alone. Colour Vision ran to form when beaten 29L on his debut at Newmarket but proved that running to be all wrong when landing a respectable Thirsk maiden 14 days later. This nicely bred 100,000 guineas purchase still appeared very green at Thirsk but from looking at his action it was easy to see why he was so easily beaten on the soft ground at Newmarket. A good racing surface looks the key to this horse and so I would have reservations about his chances tomorrow. My Single Malt, a thick-set, well-made colt, had struggled to get off the mark at the third attempt in a modest 6f maiden at Ripon a month earlier but seemed to relish the step up to a mile at Newcastle last time when he had another of tomorrow’s runners, Arabian Star 1 3/4L back in 3^rd. Channon’s colt re-opposes on 3lbs better terms here but I fancy Tom Tate’s colt to confirm the placings over a trip and on ground that look ideal. But for the winner, I am turning to the ladies and NICOLA’S DREAM in particular. I though she ran a nice race when beaten less than 2L behind Sir Reginald at York in June but disappointed at the same track next time. She looks much more at home when stepped up to 7f next time at Newcastle and I think she will improve again for this extra furlong tomorrow. As yet untried on a softer surface I think it will suit her action so I think she is worth a punt to turn over the more fancied runners.

5.00 – Agriargo UK Tractor Challenge Handicap
Bushman is the highest rated horse in the line up but at the weights he does look to have a massive task on his hands. When it comes to the trends, Tamaathul makes plenty of appeal as Barry Hills has won this race 3 times in the last 10 years. This lightly raced three-year-old probably has the least amount of miles on the clock of any of these runners but he has run some good races in defeat this term behind Wigmore Hall, Azmeel and Aide Glance at Chester last month. He seemed a lot more effective over a mile last time so I am not surprise to see stick to that trip for the time being. Capponi looked a bright prospect earlier in the season but appeared to struggle when stepped up in class at Goodwood and York. However, I am more of the view that he didn’t see out the trip at Goodwood and got no luck in running at York, not being given the fiercest of rides from Frankie once he chance was gone. With more luck in running I expect to see him bounce back. A very similar comment applies to Balducci who looked progressive before having valid excuses in the Britannia and with a break under his belt he is another who can prove the form wrong. But I can’t help but think that ORDNANCE ROW has a big race in him off his current mark of 102 given that it is the lowest he has been for over 3 years. He posted a few decent efforts earlier in the year of a much higher mark than this and I feel that he may be passed over by many punters at around 20/1 who will be looking to the younger, more progressive runners.

5.35 – Doncaster Premier Inn And Table Table Handicap
Senate is a lightly raced and progressive animal who had the run of the race at Leicester last time when under ideal conditions, he turned in a career-best effort to beat Magicalmysterytour who had been a winner last time out. Given that it was his first outing over 1m4f it really was an encouraging effort. He will handle quicker ground and remains open to further improvement even though he has gone up 8lbs in the weights, so I am not ruling out a big effort tomorrow. I think Admission has something to offer in this sphere after some encouraging efforts this season. After winning on his debut at Yarmouth, the form of his defeat at Newbury has workd out nicely as Myplacelater confirmed earlier this week. He then ran encouragingly behind Corsica in the Listed Glasgow Stakes before failing to handle the bottomless conditions over 1m7 in Deauville last time. The trip and ground should be much more to his liking tomorrow and he has been given the plum drawer in stall 1. But it might be worth taking a chance on HATTON FLIGHT who really impressed me in the early part of last season winning 2 races at Epsom and Newmarket off 88 and 94 respectively. He then seemed to struggle off his revised mark of 99 and too be honest hasn’t shown a lot since then, including when he was well beaten behind Yorgunnabelucky at Ascot last time. That came of 95 but the handicapper deemed that worthy of another 5lbs drop down the weights so if he cannot get competitive off a mark of 90, he never will.

So that brings us to the end of the 2010 St Leger Festival but don’t worry if you still need your fix of Flat racing action before the season finishes. At the end of the month I shallbe writing The Autumn Double, a 3 day preview that covers the Friday and Saturday of the Cambridgeshire Meeting on the 1st & 2nd October and also all races on Champions Day, Saturday 16th October. You can subscribe now by clicking the link below.